最近，“影子银行”问题再次引发人们的关注。尽管过去两三年里监管部门不断加强对各类非常规金融活动和机构的监管，但“影子银行”仍然蓬勃发展。国际货币基金组织（IMF）也在其最新的《全球金融稳定报告》中表达了对中国“影子银行”问题的担忧。我国“影子银行”体系的规模到底有多大？是什么推动了它的快速增长？我们又应该关注哪些问题呢？

recently,"Shadow Banks"Again cause the attention of people.Although the past two or three years continuously strengthen the supervision department for all kinds of abnormal financial activities and the supervision of the institution,but"Shadow Banks"Still vigorous development.The international monetary fund(IMF)Also in its latest[Global financial stability report]Expressed in China"Shadow Banks"concerns.Our country"Shadow Banks"The size of the system how much?What is promoting its rapid growth?And we should pay attention to what problems do?

　　根据不同定义来估算，“影子银行”的规模也不一样。按照金融稳定委员会（FSB）的定义，“影子银行”可以被“广义地界定为由（部分或完全）在正规银行体系之外的实体及业务活动所构成的信用中介”。基于这个广义的概念，银行的表外活动如信托和委托贷款、银行承兑汇票以及包括债券在内的信用类金融产品交易都可纳入“影子银行”的范围，温州等地的民间借贷活动也应包含在内。央行所监测的社会融资总额涵盖了主要的“影子银行”的活动，但并没有包括大部分的信托资产和民间借贷，也未覆盖理财产品。

According to the different definition to estimate,"Shadow Banks"Scale is different also.According to the financial stability committee(FSB)definition,"Shadow Banks"Can be"Broadly defined by(Part or all of)In the formal banking system outside of the entity and business activities of credit intermediary".Based on the generalized concept,Bank off-balance-sheet activities such as trust and entrust loan/Bank acceptance and including bonds, the credit class financial products transactions can be into"Shadow Banks"range,Wenzhou, folk lending activities should also be included.The central bank have monitoring social financing amount covers the main"Shadow Banks"activities,But did not include most of the trust assets and folk loan,Also not cover financial products.

　　活动规模有多大 How big is activities

　　图1给出了截至2012年三季度基于不同定义的估算值：（1）统计在央行社会融资规模口径之下的未贴现票据、信托和委托贷款余额为13.7万亿元，占2012年预测GDP的26％；（2）在（1）的基础上，加上社会融资规模中未包括的信托资产和民间借贷（民间借贷估计为4万亿元），“影子银行”总规模为20.9万亿元左右，占GDP的40％；（3）如果再加上非银行所持有的企业债券，这个数字将达到24.4万亿元，占GDP的46％。

Figure 1 gives by 2012 third quarter based on the different definition of the estimated value:(1)Statistics in the central bank social financing scale diameter under the not discounted bill/Trust and entrust loan balance is 13.7 trillion yuan,In 2012 accounted for 26% of GDP forecast;(2)in(1)Based on,Add social financing scale are not included in the trust assets and folk loan(Folk borrowing estimate for 4 trillion yuan),"Shadow Banks"The total scale for 20.9 trillion yuan,40% of GDP;(3)If plus non-bank owned enterprise bonds,The number will reach 24.4 trillion yuan,46% of GDP.

　　我们认为（1）是“影子银行”规模的下限，因为它忽略了一些重要组成部分，而（2）和（3）可能存在一定的重复计算，因为部分信托资金可能被用于购买商业票据或债券，因而被计算了两次。然而，在更宽泛的定义下，“影子银行”还应包括银行持有的企业债券（约3.3万亿元）以及最近的创新业务，如银行间同业代付和常常涉及商业票据的同业回购，这些创新都通过“改变流动性和期限”帮助增加了金融杠杆。另外,据IMF估算，中国的理财产品规模约为8万亿－9万亿元，但我们没有将它计算在内，因为考虑到其主要投资对象是商业票据、信托产品、货币市场或混合型产品等,因此可能会有大量重复计算。

We think(1)is"Shadow Banks"Scale the lower limit of,Because it to ignore some important part,and(2)and(3)There may be some repetitive calculation,Because part of the trust fund can be used to buy commercial paper or bonds,So was calculated the two.however,In more broad definition,"Shadow Banks"It should include bank holdings of enterprise bonds(About 3.3 trillion yuan)And, more recently, innovative business,Such as bank inter-bank paid and often involves commercial paper trade repurchase,These innovations are through"Change the liquidity and time limit"Help increase the financial lever.In addition,According to the IMF estimation,China's financial product scale is about 8 trillion - 9 trillion yuan,But we don't have it count,Because of considering the main investment object is commercial paper/Trust products/Money market or mixed products, etc,So there may be a lot of double counting.

　　“影子银行”的迅速发展是在银行信贷经历了2009年－2010年的高速扩张后开始紧缩时开始的。“影子银行”的快速发展往往表现为一种或几种新型融资活动在短时间内激增。比如，到今年二季度末，信托公司的资产管理规模在两年内几乎翻番，达到5.3万亿元人民币。虽然监管部门先后对银行用来规避贷款限额的银信合作的信托贷款和房地产信托产品进行整治，但由于银行和信托公司不断通过创新来绕过监管，其他种类的信托产品仍层出不穷。

"Shadow Banks"Rapid development is in the bank credit through the 2009-2010 after the rapid expansion of the start of the crunch at the start."Shadow Banks"The rapid development of the often shown as a kind of or several new financing activities in a short time surge.For example,To at the end of the second quarter of this year,Trust the company's asset management scale nearly doubled in two years,Up to 5.3 trillion yuan RMB.Although the supervision department successively in bank loans to avoid the limitation of such cooperation trust loan and real estate trust product improvement,But due to the bank and trust company continuously through the innovation to bypass the supervision,Other kinds of trust products still emerge in endlessly.

　　谁制造了“影子银行” Who made"Shadow Banks"

　　为什么近几年“影子银行”业务发展得如此之快呢？除了金融创新和监管套利等常规因素，我们认为还存在着一些当前中国金融体系和货币政策模式下特有的因素：

Why in recent years"Shadow Banks"Business development so fast??In addition to financial innovation and regulatory arbitrage conventional factors,We think there are some of the current China's financial system and monetary policy mode special factors:

　　对银行来说，存款准备金率高企（现为19.5％）是一种负担，使得银行更愿意将存款转移到表外业务中（比如理财产品）。

For Banks,The deposit reserve rate high(Currently he is 19.5%)Is a kind of burden,Make bank will deposit more willing to transfer to the off-balance sheet business(Such as financial products).

　　贷款额度和贷存比上限限制了银行直接进行信贷扩张的空间，促使银行将贷款证券化或者将其转移到表外。

Loans and DaiCunBi upper limit the bank directly credit expansion of space,Make the bank will loan securitization or transferring them to the table.

　　虽然过去两年政府控制了贷款额度，但实际利率一直较低，中央政府还不时敦促地方政府和企业保持投资增长，尤其是在经济减速的时候。这使得信贷需求旺盛，而影子银行的信贷活动则可以满足这些需求。

Although in the past two years the government control of the loans,But the real interest rates have been low,The central government also from time to time urged local governments and enterprises to keep investment growth,Especially in the economic slowdown.This makes the credit demand,And the shadow Banks credit activity, can meet those needs.

　　银行对地方政府融资平台和其他被认定为高风险行业的贷款受到了严格管控，但政府又经常要求银行增加对实体经济的信贷支持，并鼓励它们购买同样的债务人所发行的债券和其他证券化产品。

Bank to local government financing platform and the other is regarded as high risk industry by the strict control loan,But the government and often require Banks to increase credit support to the entity economy,And encourage them to buy the same obligor by the issue of bonds and other securitisation.

　　把银行存款利率控制在较低水平使得居民和企业储户转而寻求高收益产品。而同时，一方面银行的存款保障是隐性的；另一方面“影子银行”和正规银行、政府部门之间有着紧密的联系，这使得两者的风险差异变得模糊。比如，人们可能认为银行销售的理财产品和信托产品的风险并不比银行存款高多少，因为最后银行或政府会埋单。结果，社会和道德压力可能真的迫使银行承担起这些风险以及产生的损失。

The bank deposit interest rate control in a relatively low level makes residents and enterprise customer to seek high yield product.At the same time,On the one hand the bank deposit security is recessive;On the other hand"Shadow Banks"And regular bank/Between government departments are closely linked,This makes the risk difference become fuzzy.For example,People may think the bank sales financial products and trust product risk than the bank deposit much taller,Because the Banks or the government will bill.The results,Social and moral pressure may be really has forced Banks to assume the risk and produce loss.

　　在我们看来，说到底，造成“影子银行”快速发展的关键原因之一，是不同政策目标以及各种政策工具之间的错配和冲突。政府既希望保持经济较快发展，要求银行提供充足的信贷，又为了控制宏观风险而设定了贷款额度、为了控制信用风险而实施各种银行业监管规则，这两者并存就为“影子银行”的发展开创了空间。又比如，近几个月，央行在资本外流的情况下依然保持着较高的存款准备金率，可能是害怕释放出过于强烈的货币放松信号，但同时央行又持续通过其他手段向金融系统注入流动性，推动基础货币快速增长。

In our view,In the final analysis,cause"Shadow Banks"One of the key reasons for rapid development,Is different policy goals and various policy tools mismatch between and conflict.The government wants both to maintain a relatively rapid economic development,Require Banks to provide adequate credit,And in order to control the risk of macro set the loans/In order to control credit risk and implementation of a range of banking regulatory rules,Both to coexist"Shadow Banks"The development of a space.And such as,In recent months,The central bank in the capital outflow of cases remained high deposit reserve rate,May be afraid of release too strong currency relaxation signal,But at the same time the central bank and sustained through other means to inject liquidity into the financial system,Promote the rapid growth of monetary base.

　　我们需要担心吗 We need to worry about

　　应该认识到，金融创新通常和整体经济发展同步，对经济有一定的贡献。FSB和IMF认为，“影子银行”体系可以开辟新的融资渠道并为经济提供更广泛的金融服务。FSB建议政府部门着重加强对那些“增加或促进杠杆”以及“改变期限/流动性、造成有缺陷的信用风险转移、产生重大风险”的“影子银行”活动的监管和风险控制。

Should realize,Financial innovation usually and the overall economic development synchronous,To have financial contributions.FSB and IMF think,"Shadow Banks"System can be opened up a new financing channels for economic and provide a wider range of financial services.FSB suggest the government departments to strengthen the focus on those"Increase or promote the lever"and"Change period/liquidity/Caused by defective credit risk transfer/Have a significant risk"of"Shadow Banks"Activities of the supervision and risk control.

　　不过，全球金融危机和去年我国的实际案例都表明，影子信贷活动和常规信贷活动之间存在紧密联系，这可能导致一方出现问题后引发连锁反应，形成超预期的信贷紧缩。去年夏天我国监管部门加强对银行表外活动的监管，包括一些不规范的贴现票据回购和房地产信贷，结果是票据融资萎缩的同时，一些民间借贷的资金链也出现了严重问题，在部分地区引发了连锁反应。类似情况可能会再次出现。

but,The global financial crisis in China last year and the actual case show,Shadow credit activities and the conventional credit activities between the close connection,This may lead to a party after problems result in a chain reaction,Formation ultra anticipated the credit crunch.Last summer the supervision department in China to strengthen the supervision of the bank off-balance-sheet activities,Include some non-standard bills discounted repurchase and real estate credit,The result is bill financing atrophy and at the same time,Some folk loan capital chain also appeared serious problem,In some areas triggered a chain reaction.Similar situation may appear again.

　　同样重要的是，由于一直以来政府都仅关注控制银行表内的狭义人民币贷款，非常规信贷活动的发展可能会让传统的评估信贷条件的方式变得越来越不完善和不准确（见图2）。比如，瑞银A股银行业研究团队估算，近期银行同业票据回购和同业代付活动可能将上万亿元贷款腾挪到了表外。虽然央行一直在关注并发布社会融资规模数据，但后者并未包括“影子银行”体系的一些重要组成部分，却涵盖了股票融资。此外，央行或政府始终也没有为社会融资规模的适度增长设立明确的政策目标和政策工具。

Equally important,Because of government has been only pay attention to control the bank in the table, the narrow RMB loan,The development of unconventional credit activities may make the traditional evaluation credit terms way becomes more and more not perfect and accurate(See figure 2).For example,Ubs a-share banking research team estimation,Recent interbank bill repurchase and trade pay for another activity may trillions of dollars move STH to make loans to the table.Although the central bank has been paying attention to and release social financing scale data,But the latter has not included"Shadow Banks"Some of the system an important part,But covers the share financing.In addition,The central bank or the government still haven't for social financing scale moderate growth sets clear policy target and policy tool.

　　图3显示，如果仅看银行业表内信贷，那么其占GDP的比重在2009年跳升25个百分点之后，近几年基本持平。不过，如果把社会融资规模里的表外信贷活动包括在内，银行业信贷总额占GDP的比重则呈现出持续增长的趋势，四年来累计上升了44个百分点。如果考虑到非银行金融媒介，比如信托资产和非银行部门持有的企业债券，过去两年经济杠杆水平的增长幅度就更大。很多人只关注狭义的人民币贷款，因而仍认为货币和信贷条件目前依然偏紧。

Diagram 3 shows,If only see banking credit in the table,Then the of GDP in 2009 after a 25% jump,In recent years the same basic.but,If the social financing scale of off-balance-sheet credit activities included,Banking credit amount of GDP revealed a growing trend,Four years accumulated rose by 44%.If you consider the non-bank financial media,Such as the trust assets and non-bank department held enterprise bonds,In the past two years of economic lever level of growth amplitude is bigger.Many people only pay attention to special RMB loans,So still think money and credit conditions at present is still too tight.

　　虽然监管部门不断努力想跟上各类非常规信贷活动的步伐，但我们预计“影子银行”活动不会减弱。解决“影子银行”存在的问题并减少相关风险的关键应该是明确宏观经济和审慎监管目标的优先顺序、改革目前货币政策的管理方式、理顺时有矛盾的多重政策目标和工具。举例来说，如果中央政府确实担心地方政府债务和银行资产质量，那就应该更多地通过财政政策来保增长，而不是鼓励信贷扩张。如果政府仍希望依靠信贷扩张来促进增长，那就应该直接提高信贷额度，而不是迫使银行去规避额度和监管。此外，央行应降低存款准备金率并通过更多市场工具管理流动性，从而减少高存款准备金率对银行体系行为的扭曲。

Although the supervision department constantly trying to keep up with the pace of of all kinds of unconventional credit activities,But we expect"Shadow Banks"Activities will not be weakened.solve"Shadow Banks"Existing problems and reduce the risk of related key should be clear macro economic and prudential supervision target priority/Reform the current monetary policy management way/Straighten out the contradiction of have multiple policy goals and tools.For example,If the central government do worry about the local government debt and bank asset quality,It should be more through the fiscal policy to keep growth,Not encourage credit expansion.If the government still wants to depend on credit expansion to promote growth,That should directly increase lines of credit,Rather than forcing Banks to avoid quotas and supervision.In addition,The central bank should reduce the deposit reserve ratio and through more market liquidity management tool,So as to reduce the high deposit reserve ratio to the bank system behavior distortion.

　　短期内，鉴于大多数“影子银行”活动（比如信托和票据）仍在银监会的监管之下，再加上这类活动刚出现不久且规模不是特别大，我们认为还不会出现重大的系统性问题。但如果上述基本面问题和扭曲得不到解决，同时金融自由化继续发展、非银行金融媒介变得更加复杂，那么宏观风险将会上升。

In the short term,In view of the most"Shadow Banks"activities(Such as trust and bill)Still in the supervision of the CBRC under,Coupled with this kind of activity just appear soon and scale is not particularly big,We think that also won't appear major systemic problems.But if the above fundamental problem can't be solved and distortion,At the same time, financial liberalization continue to develop/Non-bank financial media become more complex,So the macro risk will rise.

　　作者为瑞银证券中国首席经济学家

The author for ubs securities China chief economist