本报记者 黄莹颖 张莉

Our reporter HuangYingYing ZhangLi

　　近日，民间资金出现回流实业的迹象，多地在政策上也积极引导资金流向实体经济。广东金融学院院长陆磊日前接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，目前实体经济还没有找到新的增长点；在关注资金流向实体经济同时，更应当关注资金的使用效果，警惕资金再次流向泡沫化投资标的。

recently,The folk fund appear reflux industrial signs,More on policy and actively guide capital flow to the entity economy.Guangdong financial dean of college LiuLei has to accept Chinese stock certificate report reporter to interview said,At present the real economy haven't found a new growth point;Focusing on capital flow to the entity economy at the same time,More shall pay attention to the use of funds effect,Alert funds flow frothy investment mark again.

关注资金使用风险 Pay attention to the use of fund risk

　　中国证券报：目前部分金融数据出现好转迹象，主要是银行的信贷投放开始向实体经济倾斜。如何看待这一现象？

China's stock certificate report:Currently, some financial data appear better signs,Mainly is the bank's credit availability began to tilt the real economy.How look upon this phenomenon?

　　陆磊：的确是存在这种现象，但这方面仍需要注意节奏。信贷数据好转，加上央行逆回购使流动性相应放松，会为一些企业部门提供充分的融资环境，有利于经济复苏。这点毫无疑问。

LiuLei:Is really has this kind of phenomenon,But it still need to pay attention to the rhythm.Credit data better,With the central bank reverse repurchase make liquidity corresponding to relax,For some enterprise department will provide adequate financing environment,Conducive to economic recovery.No doubt about that.

　　但问题是目前还需要关注负债率以及未来的盈利。也就是说，即便是实体经济或企业部门获得了融资，怎样利用手中的资金，也需要后续观察。到底是实体经济部门进入了新的领域，还是说仍然只是从事传统部门中有增长潜力的行业，存在不确定性。我比较担忧其中产生的问题，因为目前还没有看到有好的行业在实体经济中崛起。简单来说，经济增长点的寻找仍然是中国经济面临的核心问题之一。

But the problem is currently still need to pay attention to leverage and future earnings.That is,Even the real economy or business department to get financing,How to use the hands of the money,Also need follow-up observation.What is the real economy departments into a new area,Still say is still only engaged in traditional sectors have growth potential of the industry,Existence uncertainty.I is concerned about the problems arising out of it,Because there is no see a good industry in the entity economy rise.In simple terms,Economic growth is still looking for China's economy is facing one of the core problems.

　　现在只是流动性放松，依靠银行信贷规模来支持实体经济部门，这在一定程度上能够解决资金来源的问题。但在资金的使用方面，我们担忧负债率进一步上升或泡沫化再次发生。如果实体经济中存在实际的经济增长点，资金会支持实体部门持续发展，但如果投资标的是不确定的，就很容易使已获得的信贷资金再次投入到资源类、资产类的泡沫工具。我们现在看到铁矿石、煤炭都出现库存下降，资源类产品价格和PPI出现一定程度反弹，会使一部分人选择买进资源类产品，以期未来价格走高获得资金收益。这种情况需要后续观察。

Now, just relax liquidity,Rely on bank credit scale to support the real economy department,This to a certain extent, to solve the problem of funds.But in the use of funds,We further concerns ratio rise or frothy happen again.If the real economy exist in the actual economic growth point,Funds will support entity department sustainable development,But if the investment target is uncertain,It is easy to make acquired credit funds into resources class again/Asset class of foam tools.We now see iron ore/Coal in the inventory decline,Resource products price and PPI appear a certain degree of rebound,Can make some people choose to buy resources products,In order to future prices receive money income.This kind of situation require follow-up observation.

　　中国证券报：资金流向出现变化，能否判断这是长期还是短期的趋势？

China's stock certificate report:Capital flows appear change,Can we tell this is a very long-term or short-term trend?

　　陆磊：即便资金转向实体经济部门是一种长期趋势，我们仍然需要关注其中的风险。银行有能力向企业释放流动性，这方面基本不存在问题，但企业部门能不能从实体经济的投资项目上赚钱，或重新进入曾经走过的泡沫化阶段，这种风险是需要关注的。

LiuLei:Even if the funds to the real economy sector is a long-term trend,We still need to pay attention to the risks.Banks have the ability to enterprise release liquidity,The basic problem does not exist,But the enterprise department can from the real economy of investment projects to make money,Or re-enter once through the frothy stage,This kind of risk is needed to pay more attention.

　　有人提出“未来经济增长仍然是投资拉动”，但问题是新的投资能否证明未来的投资回报不会持续下降，或投资的行业比以往更好。从2009年开始出现的房地产泡沫、资源类泡沫，这些泡沫化过程都是实体经济部门拿着资金去投资的。在这个过程中，我们需要区分什么是实体经济。以往也存在一些企业，在拿到资金之后，投向泡沫化的投资标的。

It is proposed"Future economic growth is still pulling investment",But the problem is the new investment can prove the future investment return will not continue to decline,Or investment industry better than ever before.From 2009 began to appear in the real estate bubble/Resources class foam,These frothy process are the real economy department took the money to investment.In this process,We need to distinguish between what is the real economy.In the past there are also some enterprise,Get the money later,To frothy investment target.

　　中国证券报：资金流向实体经济的驱动力何在？

China's stock certificate report:Capital flow to the entity economy what driving force?

　　陆磊：这种驱动力量主要有三个方面。首先，真正的实体经济部门去库存操作已接近尾声，现在企业进入补库存阶段，这使得实体经济部门的存货投资开始增加。这方面存在让信贷进入实体经济部门的推动力，即实体经济部门采取存货投资的方式恢复经济生产。其次，经过央行在公开市场的逆回购操作，银行流动性好转，金融供给部门向企业提供更多信贷。第三，目前房地产市场存在去泡沫化过程，但可以看到主流观点认为去泡沫化过程基本结束。该领域也会增加融资需求，资产领域的活跃度比以往更高。从供给和需求方面，都会存在相关的驱动力。

LiuLei:This kind of drive force mainly has three aspects.First of all,The real entity economic sectors to inventory operation is closer to the end,Now enterprises enter fill inventory stage,This makes the real economy department inventory investment began to increase.There is a let credit into the real economy department impetus,That is the real economy departments to take inventory investment way to restore economic production.secondly,After the central bank in the open market inverse repurchase operation,Bank liquidity better,Financial supply department to provide more credit to the enterprise.The third,At present the real estate market exists to frothy process,But can see the mainstream view to frothy process basic end.This field will also increase financing needs,In the field of assets active degrees higher than ever before.From the supply and the demand side,There will be related to the driving force.

金融产品杠杆应适度 Financial products lever should be moderate

　　中国证券报：有关部门正在努力寻找新的经济增长点，比如战略性新兴产业。

China's stock certificate report:The relevant departments are trying to look for a new economic growth point,Such as strategic emerging industry.

　　陆磊：从2008年开始，有关部门不断发文支持战略性新兴产业，并划分若干区域。单纯依靠政府部门的投资拉动可能较难找到真正意义上的战略性新兴产业。

LiuLei:Begin from 2008,The relevant departments constantly outgoing mail support strategic emerging industry,And some regional division.Pure depending on government investment pull may be more difficult to find true strategic emerging industry.

　　战略性新兴产业形成需要两个要素：首先是彻彻底底的技术革命，如IT互联网、生物技术等等，有别人无法超越的产业优势，才可能形成战略性新兴产业。但我们在投资的过程中，可能会发现有些产业暂时是无本之木，产业发展还需要技术突破。

Strategic emerging industry formation need two elements:The first is complete technology revolution,Such as IT the Internet/Biological technology, etc,Another unsurpassable industry advantage,Just may form strategic emerging industry.But we are in the process of investment,May find some industries like temporarily,Industrial development also need a technical breakthrough.

　　其次，战略性新兴产业需要私人投资部门的支持。私人资金发现可持续的中长期回报，进而投入到新产业中。目前战略性新兴产业的形成方式，主要仍然依靠外生力量，而不是内生动力。经济规律要求不应让政府部门来形成新兴产业，而是要交给市场去完成。

secondly,Strategic emerging industry needs the support of private investment department.Private money found a sustainable long-term returns,And then into the new industry.At present strategic emerging industry form,Main still rely on exogenous forces,Instead of endogenous power.Economic law requirements should not let government departments to form new industries,But to the market to complete.

　　中国证券报：现在各地都非常重视金融改革创新，金融服务的完善能否助力实体经济发展？

China's stock certificate report:Now everywhere attaches great importance to the financial reform and innovation,Financial services can improve power entity economy development?

　　陆磊：我们在谋求金融产品创新同时，也必须关注风险，关注投资标的是否靠谱。不是考虑资金来了怎么样，而是要考虑资金该用给谁，投资之后能否带来真实回报。

LiuLei:We are looking for financial products innovation at the same time,Also must pay close attention to risk,Pay attention to whether investment mark by spectrum.Not considering the funds to the,But to consider money with the who,After investment can bring real returns.

　　从上述角度出发，我认为中国金融改革创新主要的问题不是加杠杆，而是去杠杆。如果杠杆越加越高，可能就会发生严重的问题。如美国次贷危机，其根源是过度杠杆化。只有保持适度杠杆，才意味着投资风险不会过高。

From the above viewpoint,I think that China's financial reform and innovation of the main problem is not add lever,But to leverage.If the higher the more leverage,May be a serious problem.If the us subprime mortgage crisis,The root cause is excessive leveraged.It is only by keeping the moderate leverage,Just means that investment risk not too high.