兴利投资

Investment benefit

　　美国大选尘埃落定，并没有给国内外市场指明方向，美国财政悬崖问题开始成为市场新的焦点，财政悬崖已经成为全球经济新风险的源头。惠誉在本周上调了美国的债务上限，并警告将有可能下调美国的主权信用评级。

The U.S. presidential election dust settled,And not to domestic and foreign market direction,The United States financial cliff problem has become a new focus of the market,Financial cliff has become a global economic new risk source.Fitch ratings in the United States this week raised the debt limit,And warning will likely cut America's sovereign credit rating.

　　“其实投资者担心的是美国货币政策会不会再度转向紧缩，从而抵消前期宽松政策在经济复苏中的作用市场非常害怕经济出现萎缩和倒退。”杭州兴利投资有限公司杨宏森博士表示了自己的忧虑，“如果财政悬崖问题得不到解决，美国经济复苏将面临巨大的挑战，全球市场对大宗商品的需求将受到严重影响。如果美国经济出现大幅下滑，中国的出口一定出现严重的负增长，全球经济将随之遭受打击。欧洲已经在衰退当中，日本也在衰退，发展中国家经济放缓，如果美国陷入衰退，全球的经济状况可想而知。”

"In fact investors worried about the U.S. monetary policy will once again turned to squeeze,So as to offset the loose policies in economic recovery is very afraid of the role of market economy appears atrophy and retrogression."Hangzhou benefit investment co., LTD. YangHongSen doctor expressed his anxiety,"If the financial cliff issues are resolved,The United States economic recovery will face great challenge,The global market for the demand for commodities will be affected.If the us economy a substantial decline,China's export must appear serious negative growth,The global economy will then take a hit.Europe has been in recession of,Japan is also in a recession,Developing countries economic slowdown,If the United States into recession,The global economic situation cans be imagined."

　　截至目前，市场情绪对于这一问题是否能够得到妥善的解决依然并不乐观。分析人士对于美国国会近年来在经济问题上的决策效率已经颇为无奈，比如在2008年次贷危机爆发关键点上，美国国会与财政部就金融救助法案依然久拖不决；2011年，美国国会在是否提高美国国债上限的问题上，也进行了拉锯式的长久讨论。而在此期间，对于风险爆发的担忧实际上导致金融市场的恐慌进一步恶化，市场则以严厉的下跌给出了最直接的回应。美国“财政悬崖”问题影响着未来美国财政政策的大方向，也就是继续从宽还是开始从紧。

So far,Market sentiment to the problem whether can be appropriately resolved is still not optimistic.Analysts for the congress of the United States in recent years on economic issues decision-making efficiency has been quite helpless,For example, in 2008 the subprime crisis on the key points,The United States congress and the ministry of finance on the financial rescue bill still dragged on;In 2011,,The United States congress in whether to raise us Treasury on the issue of upper limit,Has also carried on the LaJuShi long discussion.And in this period,The risk for outbreaks of worry in fact led to the financial market panic further deterioration,The market is in a severe fall the most direct response are given.The United States"Financial cliff"Affects the future the United States the general control of the fiscal policy,Also is put to continue or began to tight.

　　当前全球经济复苏势头普遍趋弱，如果美国经济因为财政悬崖问题出现反复，全球经济复苏的势头显然更加不容乐观。欧盟公布的报告亦坦承，区域内经济在2013年可能都无法实现经济复苏。为此，欧盟不但大幅下调了法国、英国等多国经济增长预期，还警告称经济增长放缓已经延伸至核心国德国。

The current global economic recovery momentum and generally weak,If the us economy because financial cliff problem again and again,The global economic recovery momentum obviously more not optimistic.The report also admits,Area economy in 2013 is unlikely to achieve economic recovery.therefore,The European Union not only slashed the French/UK and other multinational economic growth prospects,Also warned that economic growth has been extended to the core countries of Germany.

　　和“风雨欲来”的国际市场相比，国内市场走势平和得多。本周五中国国家统计局发布的10月份消费物价指数（CPI）数据表明，我国CPI增速连降3个月创年内新低。通胀压力的缓解，降低了投资者对中国政府的“降准”预期。在8日开幕的中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上，包括央行行长周小川在内的一众财经高官透露出诸多关于当前经济金融形势的最新信号。面对备受关注的经济形势问题，周小川称，中国经济仍面临不确定性，综合考虑外部风险和眼下经济呈现改善迹象，明年中国很可能继续实施现行货币政策。央行副行长易纲更清晰地阐述了自己的观点：从经济回升的势头来看，今年中国经济增速肯定会超过7.5%的官方目标，全年通货膨胀率可能在2%-3%，远低于4%的调控目标。证监会主席郭树清称，“当前中国加快资本市场建设面临有利条件，如经济企稳、消费和投资增速提升等，中国资本市场将迎来快速发展阶段，为投资者带来稳定回报。”

and"Storm to"Compared with the international market,The domestic market movements much more peaceful.On Friday, China's national bureau of statistics released in October of the consumer price index(CPI)Data show that,CPI growth in our country are still three months and years low.Inflationary pressure relief,Reduce the investors of China's government"Drop must"expected.In 8, the communist party of China opening 18 times national convention,Central bank governor zhou xiaochuan, including the financial official revealed many about the current economic and financial situation of the latest signal.In the face of the economic situation of concern problem,Zhou xiaochuan said,China's economy still faces uncertainty,Comprehensive consideration of the external risk and improve the economic present signs,China next year is likely to continue to implement the current monetary policy.Yi gang, vice governor of the central bank more clearly expounds his views:From the economic rebound momentum to see,China's economic growth this year will more than 7.5% of the official target,Annual inflation rate may be in 2% - 3%,Far less than 4% of the control target.Securities regulatory commission chairman GuoShuQing says,"The current China to speed up the capital market construction faced with favorable conditions,As the economy stabilises/Consumption and investment growth promotion, etc,China's capital market will usher in rapid development phase,For investors bring stability returns."

　　国内外截然不同的政治政策背景与宏观经济形势，导致国内市场走势维持震荡特征，远比国际市场平和。杨宏森博士认为，证券市场的反弹不会立竿见影，未来还将继续寻底，2000点的破与不破已经不再是讨论的话题。投资者情绪不稳是目前国内外市场难以走出方向的主因所在，只要实体经济没有真正的复苏，所有的政策导向都不能改变证券市场的弱势行为，没有业绩的股票投资者不会购买，没有分红的个股也涨不上去。

Home and abroad very different political policy background and macro economic situation,Lead to domestic market movements maintain shock characteristics,Far more than the international market peace.YangHongSen doctor thinks,The stock market rebound will not immediate,The future will also continue to seek bottom,2000 point of broken and not broken already no longer is the topic of discussion.Investors emotional instability is the market at home and abroad to out of the direction of the cause,As long as the real economy has no real recovery,All the policy direction will not change the stock market vulnerable behavior,No performance of the stock investors will not buy,No dividends of stocks also rose will not come up.