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　　张一鸣

ZhangYiMing

　　在经历了上周国际原油价格的一轮过山车式的上涨和下跌行情后，不得不延后调价的国内成品油价，或将在本周三毫无悬念地迎来年内第四次下调。

After last week's round of international crude oil prices of a rollercoaster ride have risen and fallen after market,Have to delay the price adjustment of the domestic product oil prices,Or will this week three no suspense for the fourth time this year to have cut.

　　上周末，多家市场监测机构证实了这一信息。分析师称，成品油价格下调基本已成定局，最快将在2012年11月14日（本周三）凌晨下调成品油最高零售限价。

Last weekend,Several market monitoring institution confirmed this information.Analysts say,Product oil price cut basic already in place,The fastest will be on November 14, 2012(This week, three)Cut oil at the highest retail price.

　　卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，截至11月10日，三地变化率已跌至－3.86%，较上一工作日下跌0.23%。预计13日三地变化率将会跌至－4%。

Zhuo and information data monitoring model shows that,By November 10,,Three rate has dropped to 3.86%,Is a working day fell 0.23%.Is expected to 13 places rate will fall to 4%.

　　分析师们预计，本轮下调幅度在300元／吨左右。

Analysts predict,This cut amplitude is in 300 yuan/tons.

　　随着下调窗口逐渐逼近，成品油市场下调预期愈加浓厚，炼厂加大了降价促销的力度，但需求市场不买账，一些地区的成品油批发价格已经趋于稳定。

Along with the cut window gradually approximation,Refined oil market is expected to cut more strong,Refinery increased depreciate sales promotion efforts,But demand market not buy it,Some areas of refined oil wholesale prices have tend to be stable.

　　来自市场层面的消息称，10月成品油的批发环节行情不佳，包括中国石油(601857,股吧)、中国石化(600028,股吧)在内的炼厂的销售情况不佳，仅仅完成了全月工作量的60%－80%左右。

From the market levels of news said,October refined oil wholesale link quotation is not good,Including China petroleum(601857,guba)/China petrochemical(600028,guba)The refinery, the sales situation is not good,Just finished the whole month workload of 60% - 80%.

　　监测机构的数据显示，中国石油和中国石化的汽柴油价格已跌至批发限价附近，批零环节的价格差距扩大到399－441元／吨。

Monitoring data showed that institutions,Petrochina and sinopec's gasoline and diesel prices have dropped to near the wholesale price,Zero link price gap to 399-441 yuan/ton.

　　这为下游的加油站提供的促销空间，不少加油站的促销幅度达到0.2－0.5元／升。

The downstream gas station provides the promotion space,Many gas station sales promotion range 0.2 0.5 yuan/liter.

　　依据往年经验，每年的9月和10月是成品油销售旺季，也是油荒集中爆发的时候，而今年成品油的需求旺季已经结束，再发生油荒的可能性不大。

According to previous years experience,Every September and October is the product selling season,Waste oil is also concentrated broke out,This year the product demand season has ended,Happen again oil shortage is unlikely.

　　金银岛的分析师说，上周由于美国大选和希腊新财政紧缩方案投票等风险性事件云集，为原油市场短线投机者提供了套利机会，原油期价出现暴涨暴跌，在84－88美元／桶区间内维持宽幅震荡。

Treasure island analysts said,Last week due to the U.S. presidential election and Greek new austerity program ballots and the risk events swarms,Short for crude oil market speculators provide the arbitrage opportunities,Crude oil QiJia appear rises and falls,In the 84-88 dollars/barrel interval maintain a wide range.

　　上周，纽约油价下跌2.00美元美元报收于85.09美元／桶，跌幅达2.30%；伦敦布伦特油价下跌0.92美元报收于107.25美元／桶，跌幅达0.85%。

Last week,New York oil prices fell $2.00 dollars a barrel at $85.09 / barrel,Decline of 2.30%;London brent a drop in oil prices at $0.92 to $107.25 a barrel,Decline of 0.85%.

　　卓创资讯的分析师说，如果11月12日国际原油价格不出现暴涨，11月13日三地变化率将会跌至－4%，最快将于国内14日凌晨下调成品油最高零售限价。

Zhuo and information analysts say,If on November 12, the international crude oil price is not shot up,November 13 places rate will fall to 4%,The fastest will be in the domestic refined oil at 14, cut the highest retail price.

　　每次国内成品油价下调后，在成品油的批发市场都会出现一轮补货的高峰。分析师预计，下周油价如果如期下调，国内成品油批发市场将以稳定为主。

Every time the domestic product oil prices after cut,In refined oil wholesale market will appear round replenishment of the peak.Analysts expect,Oil prices on next week if cut,The domestic refined oil wholesale market will give priority to with stable.

　　截至目前，国内成品油价共下调三次，上调四次，绝大多数时间里都在国际三地原油价格变化率触碰到调价节点时就应声调整。

So far,Domestic product oil prices were down three times,Raised four times,The vast majority of time in three international crude oil prices change rate and touch the price adjustment nodes with answered and adjustment.