本报记者 唐玮 北京报道

Our reporter TangWei reports from Beijing

　　硝烟仍在弥漫。虽然在经济依然疲软、失业率接近8%之时赢得连任并不容易，“CIA丑闻”和“独立”事件沸沸扬扬，但美国总统奥巴马已经赢得连任。对美国和世界来说，现在更重要的问题是，在新的四年任期里，他该如何重建经济？

Smoke is still in the diffuse.Although the economy is still weak/Unemployment of nearly 8% of is not easy to win re-election,"CIA scandal"and"independent"Event bubbling with noise,But President Obama has won re-election.For the United States and the world,Now more important question is,In the new four years in office,He how to rebuild economy?

　　四年前，喊着“变革”的口号，怀揣着美国梦，奥巴马赢得了多数美国人的青睐入主白宫，成为美国历史上首位黑人总统。然而，他的运气并不好。这四年，美国并未从国际金融危机的阴影中走出来，反而受累于欧债危机，经济增长乏力，就业状况恶化。这次，新的任期伊始，首当其冲的就是“财政悬崖”重压。美国国会预算办公室（CongressionalBudgetOffice）认为，如果华盛顿决策者年内不采取行动，2013年美国经济将萎缩0.5%；到2013年年底，失业率将从现在的7.9%增加到9.1%。

Four years ago,Cried out"change"slogan,Huaichuai the American dream,Obama won a majority of americans favor to the White House,Become the nation's first black President.however,His luck is not good.This four years,The United States did not from the international financial crisis in the shadow go out,But involvement in European debt crisis,Weak economic growth,Employment status deterioration.the,At the beginning of the new term,Stand in the breach is"Financial cliff"weight.The congressional budget office(CongressionalBudgetOffice)think,If Washington policymakers years not to take action,In 2013 the United States economy will shrink 0.5%;By the end of 2013,Unemployment will from the current 7.9% to 9.1%.

　　麻烦的并非只有这位连任的总统。在后金融危机时代，世界金融体系仍未太平。如日本则仍然在寻找稳健经济的表现之道，走马灯似地换首相。欧洲也在靠输血救命，但失业率正处于几十年来的最高水平，增长已经事实停滞（即使德国也是如此）。与此同时，受困南欧经济体深陷衰退泥淖。此外，希腊的社会稳定已经无法维持，其全面崩溃即可能对其他地区造成极其严重的消极金融和心理效应。

The trouble is not only the re-election of the President.In the era of financial crisis,The world financial system is still not peace.As Japan is still looking for robust economic performance way,Like regimes in the prime minister.In Europe by a blood transfusion for help,But the unemployment rate is the highest level in decades,Growth has fact stasis(Even if Germany is also so).meanwhile,Trapped in southern Europe economy recession mire.In addition,Greece has been unable to maintain social stability,The complete collapse that is likely to cause serious in other parts of the negative financial and psychological effect.

　　目前看来，全球新兴市场经济体情况相对好些，却仍然不可能做到周期性脱钩。世界经济是一个相互联系的整体：任何重要部分遇到麻烦都会传染全球。这也是国际金融论坛召开的原因。

Now it looks,Global emerging market economy condition relatively better,But still impossible periodic decoupling.The world economy is an interrelated whole:An important part of any trouble will infect the global.This is also the reason of international financial BBS held.

　　“货币洪水”肆虐 "Monetary flood"Wreak havoc

　　2012年7月24日之前，欧元区在债务危机、银行危机和政治危机的三重因素困扰下，度过了近年来最艰难的一段时光，并造成了全球金融市场的严重恐慌，国际资本的安全港效应创出历史新高。

July 24, 2012 before,The euro zone in the debt crisis/The bank crisis and political crisis triple factors problems,Spent in recent years the most difficult period of time,And caused the global financial market serious panic,International capital safe harbor effect a record.

　　在此危急时刻，欧元区财政契约、银行业联盟和欧洲央行承担最后贷款人等重大改革与救援措施相继出台，终于在2012年7月底之后扭转了形势。目前，欧元区解体的短期风险已退去，其经济一体化进程取得了较大进展。

In this critical moment,The euro area financial contract/Banking alliance and the European central bank bear a lender of last resort to major reform and rescue measures have issued,Finally in 2012 after the end of July turn the situation.At present,The disintegration of the eurozone short-term risk already receding,Its economic integration process has made great progress.

　　但是，世界经济的迟缓复苏，全球央行的流动性宽松，以及欧元区危机治理的长期性和复杂性，都使得国际金融市场仍然处于脆弱和易变的态势。

but,The world economic slow recovery,Global central bank liquidity loose,In the eurozone and crisis management of the protracted nature and complexity,Makes the international financial market is still fragile and change the situation.

　　此时，为了摆脱麻烦，黔驴技穷的西方中央银行们，几乎无一例外地都选择滥发钞票的政策，试图以此刺激经济增长。

At this time,In order to get out of trouble,The central bank is western,Almost without exception, choose to spam money policy,In an attempt to stimulate growth.

　　9月6日，欧洲央行出台冲销式直接货币交易方案，欧洲央行迈入了无限制购买国债的行列当中。而这项OMT政策，对于稳定金融市场起到了立竿见影的效果，OMT计划的第二天，西班牙和意大利的10年期国债收益率均出现了显著的下跌，同时欧元小幅升值。

On September 6,,The European central bank issued bath type direct currency trading scheme,The European central bank entered the unrestricted buy Treasury bonds of ranks.The OMT policy,For stable financial markets play a immediate effect,The second day of the OMT plan,Spain and Italy 10-year yield of all appeared significant decline,At the same time, the modest rise of the euro.

　　9月13日，美联储出台第三轮量化宽松政策QE3。

On September 13,The fed on the third round of quantitative easing policy QE3.

　　9月19日，日本央行宣布将资产购买规模增加10万亿日元，其中新增日本国债5万亿日元，新增贴现国库券5万亿日元。

On September 19,The bank of Japan announced that it would buy assets scale increase 10 trillion yen,The new Japanese national debt 5 trillion yen,New discount Treasury 5 trillion yen.

　　三大经济体货币政策宽松的初衷各有不同，美联储的资产购买计划是为了刺激美国经济复苏，特别是对房地产市场的支持；欧洲央行采取的冲销式资产购买计划主要是为了稳定动荡的金融市场，保卫欧元；日本央行的资产购买计划一方面是为了刺激经济复苏，另一方面也是缓解美联储新一轮量化宽松政策对日元升值带来的压力。

Three big economies monetary policy loose original intention each have different,The fed's asset purchase plan is to stimulate the U.S. economic recovery,Especially for the support of the real estate market;The European central bank take the bath type asset purchase plan is mainly in order to stabilize the financial market turmoil,Defend the euro;The bank of Japan asset purchase plan on one hand is to stimulate economic recovery,On the other hand is also alleviate the fed a new round of quantitative easing policy on the Japanese yen appreciation bring pressure.

　　所幸在三大经济体货币当局的干预下，全球金融市场趋于平稳，国际资本的风险厌恶情绪得到显著缓解。

Fortunately in three big economies monetary authority to intervene,Global financial markets tend to be stable,International capital risk aversion was significantly reduced.

　　但麻烦远未解决，如美国大选尘埃落定，但全球资金却依旧踯躅。大选受挫将会加大共和党在未来“财政悬崖”问题上与民主党的对立情绪，全球资金担忧再起，主要股市表现欠佳，全球资金选择“在固定收益中承担风险”。

But the problem is not solved,As dust settles the U.S. presidential election,But the global capital still walk to and fro.Election setbacks will increase the republican in the future"Financial cliff"The problem with the democratic opposition mood,Global capital worry comeback,The main stock market poor performance,The global fund selection"In the fixed income of risk".

　　眼前奥巴马最主要的麻烦就是“财政悬崖”。国际货币基金组织（IMF）官员们在发送给二十国集团（G20）财长的报告中向全球财长们警告称，美国政府有中等概率将无法达成协议来防止在明年启动大规模减支和增税措施，即所谓的财政悬崖。

Eyes Obama the main trouble is"Financial cliff".The international monetary fund(IMF)Officials have been sent to the g20(G20)Finance ministers in the report to the global finance ministers have warned,The United States government has moderate probability will be unable to reach an agreement in the next year to prevent start mass in order and increase tax measures,The so-called financial cliff.

　　IMF表示，若美国国会无法就提高债务上限达成协议，就可能促使外界猜测金融市场将出现大幅震荡，或甚至美国发生技术性违约。IMF称，缺乏相关计划将导致美元作为储备货币的地位逐步降低，并推升美国的借贷成本。

The IMF says,If the United States congress could not improve the debt ceiling to reach an agreement,May prompted speculation that the outside world financial market will appear vibrations substantially,Or even the United States occurred technical default.The IMF said,The lack of relevant plan will cause the dollar's status as a reserve currency gradually reduce,The United States and push their borrowing costs.

　　而连任的好处在于，美联储所面对的政治环境与之前保持一致。莫尼塔公司的观点是，美联储很可能将目前基于OT购买的450亿国债进行延期，并计入到QE3当中。也就是说，12月的会议上，联储可能将前期400亿QE3的规模扩充至850亿。同时，联储将可能继续探讨如何将利率政策与宏观目标进行挂钩的事情。而市场更关注的是，伯南克2014年1月任期结束后，谁会继任联储主席？

And the benefits of reelection is,The fed face political environment and maintain consistent before.Monie tower company's view is,The federal reserve is likely to be at present based on the OT buy 45 billion national debt delays,And shall be included in the QE3 of.That is,The December meeting,The fed may increase in the size of the QE3 40 billion to 85 billion.At the same time,The fed will probably continue to explore how to interest rate policy and macro target hook thing.But the market's is more about,Bernanke in January 2014 after the end of his term,Who will succeed to the fed chairman?

　　对于无节制的量化宽松，新兴市场国家是有警惕的。中国社科院世经所所长余永定就强调说，要谨防西方的“货币洪水”。

For immoderate quantitative easing,Emerging market countries is a vigilant.The Chinese academy of ShiJingSuo issue is stressed,To watch the western"Monetary flood".

　　“欧美国家的危机归根结底是债务危机。解决债务危机的方法不外乎三种：促增长、勒紧裤带和赖账。而赖账又可以分为：违约、通胀和令债务贬值。”余永定分析说，在未来相当长的一段时间内，西方国家的年均增长速度大概只能达到2％。这种速度恐怕难以摆脱债务危机。而目前，由于金融机构都在窖藏货币，一般居民也不大敢乱借钱和乱花钱，通胀的可能性暂时还不大，但以后却很难说。然而美联储却坚称，届时它将有办法抽干过剩的流动性。在没有通胀的情况下，美联储大概也会想出办法使美国债务人摆脱偿债负担，特别是对外国债权人的偿债负担。

"The European and American countries crisis in the final analysis is the debt crisis.Solve the debt crisis method nothing more than three:Promote growth/To tighten and repudiate a debt.And repudiate a debt and can be divided into:Breach of contract/Inflation and make debt devaluation."Issue analysis said,In the future a long time,Western countries with an average annual growth rate have only about 2%.This rate are afraid to get rid of the debt crisis.And at present,Because financial institutions are in pits currency,People are generally not dare mess to borrow money and disorderly spend money,The possibility of inflation is not yet,But after but it's hard to say.But the fed but insisted,Then it will be able to dry up excess liquidity.Under the condition of without inflation,The fed will probably come up with ways to make the United States out of the debt burden,Especially for foreign creditors debt burden.

　　而中国作为世界上最大的债权人之一，特别是作为美国国债的最大外国债权人，必须未雨绸缪，做好预案，以减少未来可能遭受的损失。

China as the world's largest one of creditors,Especially as the largest foreign creditor us treasuries,Must save for a rainy day,To make plans,In order to reduce possible future losses.

　　呼吁国际金融体系改革 Called on the international financial system reform

　　“美元是我们的货币，你们的麻烦。”这著名的语句，毫不保留地提醒世界，在现行的国际金融体系中，美元作为全球储备货币的霸主地位。而美国联邦储备法规定，联储执行货币政策有两大主要义务：保持高水平就业，维持物价稳定。显然，量化宽松政策是美联储为达到自己法定义务而采取的，这与美国政府无关，更无须顾忌它们对其他国家产生的溢出效应。

"The dollar is our money,Your trouble."This famous statement,Without reservation to remind the world,In the existing international financial system,Dollar as the global reserve currency of the supremacy.And the federal ChuBeiFa provisions,The fed implement monetary policy has two big main obligation:Maintain a high level employment,Maintain price stability.obviously,Quantitative easing policy is the fed to reach their legal obligation and take the,This has nothing to do with the United States government,More need not scruple to other countries they produce spillover effect.

　　面对越来越一体化的全球经济体系，大国的经济政策肯定会对其他经济体系产生影响，继续推进国际金融体系改革的呼声也日益高涨。

Facing more and more integration of global economic system,Great economic policy will influence on other economic system,Continue to promote reform of the international financial system calls is also increased.

　　国务院总理温家宝11月5日在老挝万象出席第九届亚欧首脑会议第一次领导人会议上发言称：

The state council premier wen jiabao on November 5, in vientiane, Laos, attend the 9th asem summit first leaders speaking at the meeting said:

　　第一，自由、开放、公正的国际贸易是世界经济增长的重要动力。国际贸易稳定发展能够促进社会分工，扩大市场规模，增加就业机会，符合各国的共同利益。我们要以更大的诚意和决心扩大市场开放，以更加鲜明的态度和行动共同抵制贸易投资保护主义，以更加理性的办法妥善处理贸易摩擦。坚守今年20国集团领导人峰会的承诺，在2014年前不采取新的贸易保护主义措施。

The first,free/open/Fair international trade is the important power to the world economic growth.International trade and stable development can promote social division of labor,Expand the size of the market,Increase employment opportunity,Conform to the common interests of all countries.We should take more sincerity and determined to expand the market open,With a more distinct attitude and actions to counter trade and investment protectionism,With a more rational way to properly handle the trade friction.Stick to this group of 20 summit commitment,In the 2014 years ago not to take new protectionist measures.

　　第二，加强宏观经济政策协调仍是当前一项重要任务。各国应把推动世界经济强劲、可持续、平衡增长作为共同目标，坚持保增长、促就业的宏观政策方向不动摇，进一步提振市场信心，促进各国经济良性互动。高度关注主要发达经济体新一轮量化宽松货币政策的潜在影响，防止国际大宗商品价格大幅波动、全球跨境资本无序流动以及加大发展中国家的通胀压力。继续以建设性的方式支持欧洲解决债务问题的努力。欧洲有关国家要正确处理好财政整顿、金融稳定、经济复苏的关系。主要经济体应早日出台明确、可靠的中期财政整顿计划，妥善解决政府债务问题。

The second,To strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination is still an important task at present.Countries should take to promote world economic strong/sustainable/Balanced growth as a common goal,Adhere to the growth/To promote employment macro policy direction not be moved,Further boost market confidence,Accelerate the economic benign interaction.High attention major developed economies of a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy of the potential impact,Prevent the international commodity price fluctuations/Global cross-border capital flow disorder and more developing countries inflation pressure.Continue to constructive ways to support the European solve debt problems efforts.The European countries should correctly handle the financial reorganization/Financial stability/The relationship between the economic recovery.The main economies should soon come clear/Reliable medium-term financial reorganization plan,Properly solve the government debt problem.

　　第三，健全的全球经济治理体系是世界经济增长的制度保障。这几年全球经济治理机制改革取得显著成效，但建设公平、公正、包容、有序的国际经济秩序依然任重道远。要深入推进国际金融体系改革，当务之急是落实好国际货币基金组织2010年份额和治理改革方案，增加新兴市场国家和发展中国家的代表性和发言权；稳步推进国际货币体系改革，建立币值稳定、供应有序、总量可调的国际储备货币体系；切实推进金融部门改革，降低国际金融体系的系统性风险。推动多哈回合谈判早日达成实质性成果，建设自由开放的多边贸易体系。推动形成合理透明的大宗商品定价和调控机制，保障全球能源安全和粮食安全。

The third,Improve the global economic governance system is the system guarantee of the world economic growth.Over the past few years the global economic governance mechanism reform achieved remarkable results,But construction fair/justice/inclusive/Orderly international economic order still shoulder heavy responsibilities.To further promote reform of the international financial system,The urgent task is to implement the international monetary fund 2010 share and management reform plan,Increase the emerging market countries and developing countries representative and voice;Steadily promote the development of the international monetary system reform,Establish the currency stable/Supply orderly/Total adjustable international reserve currency system;Promote the financial sector reform,Reduce the international financial system of systemic risk.We will promote the doha round negotiations to achieve substantial results,Construction of a free and open multilateral trading system.Promote the formation of reasonable transparent commodity pricing and regulation mechanism,Ensure global energy security and food security.

　　而早在2009年3月，中国央行行长周小川就建议创造一种与主权国家脱钩并能保持币值长期稳定的国际储备货币，从而避免主权信用货币作为储备货币的内在缺陷，是国际货币体系改革的理想目标。西方媒体大多认为，这是对美元霸主地位的反击。

And it is early in March 2009,China's central bank governor zhou xiaochuan suggest that create a and sovereign state decoupling and can keep the currency long-term stability of the international reserve currency,To avoid sovereign credit currency as a reserve currency of the inner defects,Is the international monetary system reform of the ideal goal.Most think that western media,This is against the us dollar supremacy counterattack.

　　中国央行副行长易纲在10月参加IMF和世界银行年会时表示，国际社会应继续推进国际金融体系改革，完善国际经济治理机制，建立公平、公正、包容、有序的国际金融新秩序，实现全球共同发展与繁荣。应进一步推进国际货币基金组织和世界银行治理结构改革工作，继续提高发展中国家的代表性和发言权，更好地履行两机构的职能。

Yi gang, vice governor of China's central bank in October to the IMF and the world bank annual meeting, said,The international community should continue to promote reform of the international financial system,Perfect international economic governance mechanism,Set up a fair/justice/inclusive/Order of the international financial order,To realize the global common development and prosperity.Should further promote the international monetary fund and the world bank governance structure reform work,Continue to improve developing country representative and voice,Better to perform the functions of the two institutions.

　　历届论坛嘉宾精彩言论回顾 Successive BBS guest wonderful speech review

　　拉加德国际货币基金组织总裁（2011年年会）

Raja DE international monetary fund President(2011 annual meeting)

　　从根本意义上来讲，中国正处于经济发展的上升的通道之中，IMF非常希望能够看到一个稳定的金融体制和财政体制在中国的出现。

From the fundamental sense,China is being in the economic development of rising channel,IMF very much hope to see a stable financial system and financial system in the emergence of China.

　　保罗·沃尔克美国联邦储备委员会前主席（2010年年会）

Paul volcker, a former chairman of the federal reserve board(2010 annual meeting)

　　美联储最近推出的QE2已经造成了全球范围内对过度流动性的担心。美国应对处理国内经济问题承担责任，而目前美国希望增加国内经济活动。我希望经济增长出现建设性的变化。

The federal reserve recently launched QE2 has caused the global excess liquidity to worry about.The United States to deal with domestic economic problems take responsibility,And at present the United States hopes to increase domestic economic activities.I hope that economic growth appear constructive change.

　　罗伯特·蒙代尔“欧元之父”、诺贝尔经济学奖获得者（2009年年会）

Robert mundell"The father of the euro"/The Nobel Prize winner of economics(2009 annual meeting)

　　国际金融危机之后，国际货币体系改革提上议事日程。有六种实现国际理想货币的方法：主导性货币的方法、进化性的方法、货币区域性的方法、特别提款权的方法，人民币加入特别提款权的方法、稳定的货币锚（SolidAnchor）制度。

After the international financial crisis,The international monetary system reform put on the agenda.There are six kinds of realization methods of international ideal currency:Leading monetary method/Evolutionary approach/The method of the regional currency/The method of Special Drawing Rights,RMB to join the method of Special Drawing Rights/Stable monetary anchor(SolidAnchor)system.

　　潘基文联合国秘书长（2008年年会）

UN secretary general ban ki-moon(2008 annual meeting)

　　我们不能任凭全球金融危机恶化，使我们以往的成果付诸东流，让更多的人陷入贫穷。我们必须保护那些生计岌岌可危的人民。中国有着重要的作用。中国出台的一揽子财政刺激措施有助于缓解全世界经济下滑对中国国内经济的冲击。

We can't let the global financial crisis worsen,Make our previous achievements auburn,Let more people into poverty.We must protect the livelihood of the people is at stake.China has an important role.China issued a package of fiscal stimulus measures will help ease the world economic downturn on the impact of China's domestic economy.