近日，墨西哥就中国纺织品服装补贴向WTO提起投诉。该投诉认为，中国通过减免企业所得税等和贷款、电价折扣，对服装及纺织品进行了补贴，对墨西哥产生较大负面影响。随后中国商务部回应称，中国将根据WTO争端解决程序予以妥善处理。

recently,Mexico is China's textile and apparel subsidies to WTO filed complaints.The complaint, think,Through China's relief enterprise income tax and loan/Price discount,Garment and textile to the subsidies,Have great negative impact to Mexico.Then China's commerce ministry said response,China will according to WTO dispute settlement procedures shall be properly handle.

　　坦白说，在全球经济复苏疲弱，衰退风险加剧下，各国频繁出台贸易保护措施是可预见的，同时目前商务部的回应和处理也是理性且有节制的。不过，目前国际贸易保护带有突出的冲突式博弈特征，且国际贸易保护与疲软的全球经济复苏一旦紧凑型交汇，很容易使全球经济复苏陷入失序状态。

frankly,In the global economic recovery the weak,Recession risk under intensifying,Countries on frequent trade protection measures is foreseeable,At the same time, the ministry of commerce of the current response and handling is rational and moderate.but,The international trade protection with outstanding conflict type game features,And international trade protection and weak global economic recovery once compact intersection,Very easy to make the global economic recovery in disorder state.

　　我们认为，当前全球经济复苏疲弱与国际贸易保护存在突出的相互牵制风险。除欧债危机对欧盟经济拖累，美国经济复苏势头温吞，使欧美市场对中国的贸易贡献度有限等外，主要新兴市场经济增速腰斩，通胀率趋高，其内部风险和问题日益显露，而且这些经济体间产业竞争性相对突出，正加剧新兴经济体间的贸易争端。

We think,The current global economic recovery the weak and international trade protection existence prominent mutual contain risk.In addition to the debt crisis on the eu economy drag,The United States economic recovery momentum lukewarm,Make the European and American market to China's trade co., LTD., substandard contribution,The main emerging market economy does not expect growth,To high inflation,The internal risk and problems have become increasingly apparent,And these economies competitive between industry relatively prominent,Emerging economies are adding between trade dispute.

　　事实上，新兴市场经济增速回落是可以预见的：一则随着欧美经济复苏疲弱、衰退风险加剧，新兴经济体的外部需求减弱，且内需受制于本国市场容量和居民可支配收入等影响而难以填补外需缺口，新兴市场国家经济增速回落将难以避免。如之前国际贸易主要为欧美发达国家为消费需求端，中国等新兴市场国家为供给端；但随着欧盟深陷主权债务危机，而美国经济复苏内生动力不足，欧美市场对中国等的商品需求容量和增速趋向收敛，而欧美市场需求容量的收敛，反过来牵制新兴市场的经济增长，致使新兴市场国家内部风险在外部冲击下加速暴露，进而使更注重对国内市场的保护，及对外部需求的竞争。

In fact,Emerging market economic growth back is foreseeable:A weak with European and American economic recovery/Risks have increased,Emerging economies weakened external demand,And domestic demand is subject to domestic market capacity and residents' disposable income and influence and to fill the overseas market demand gap,Emerging market countries economic growth dropped it would be difficult to avoid.As previously international trade mainly to the European and American developed country for consumer demand end,China, emerging market countries for supply end;But as in the European Union sovereign debt crisis,While the United States economic recovery endogenous power shortage,Europe and the United States market for China commodity demand capacity and growth trend convergence,And the European and American market demand capacity of the convergence,In turn contain emerging market economic growth,The emerging market countries internal risk in the external impact acceleration exposure,And more attention to the protection of the domestic market,External demand and competition.

　　一则2009年以来新兴经济体历经的这一轮强劲增长，主要受益于巨额经济刺激，而这不仅不可持续，而且使新兴经济体面临政府财政刺激资源不足，财政赤字和通胀高企，资本外流，本币贬值及经济增速显著回落等问题。如印度9月的通胀率同比达到7.81%，创过去10个月新高，低增长高通(微博)胀的惨剧。

A 2009 years after this round of emerging economies strong growth,The main benefit from huge economic stimulus,And this not only unsustainable,And that emerging economies facing the government fiscal stimulus resources,The financial deficit and the high inflation,Capital outflow,Local currency devaluation and economic growth dropped significantly problems.If India September year-on-year inflation rate reached 7.81%,And the past 10 months highs,Low growth qualcomm(Micro bo)Distensible tragedy.

　　同时，由于新兴市场国家的产业和经济结构同质性、替代性和竞争性较强，一旦其经济增速放缓，相互间的竞争性互殴就会相当突出。商务部数据显示，今年上半年，中国遭遇其他国家的贸易救济达40起，同比增长38%，其中今年5月至今，来自巴西、阿根廷、泰国和印度等发展中国家的涉华贸易救济案例已超过30起，而新近发起的案例就约20起，已然超过去年前8个月的14起。同时，新兴市场对华贸易救济更容易产生辐射、扩散效应，如目前涉华贸易摩擦已向中国的“待开拓市场空间蔓延”，而今年新兴市场需求对中国贸易增长的贡献度较高，如9月份中国与俄罗斯、巴西的双边贸易分别增长14.2%和5%。可见一旦新兴经济体或发展中国家间贸易摩擦升级，将显著牵制中国对外贸易的增长空间。

At the same time,Due to the emerging market countries industrial and economic structure homogeneity/Alternative and competitive stronger,Once its economic growth is slowing,Mutual competitive blows will be quite outstanding.The ministry of commerce data display,In the first half of this year,China suffers other countries' trade relief 40 up,Year-on-year growth of 38%,Among them in May this year so far,From Brazil/Argentina/Thailand and India and other developing countries SheHua trade relief case has more than 30 up,While recent launch case is about 20 up,Has more than last year in the first eight months and up.At the same time,Emerging market China trade relief is more easy to produce radiation/Diffusion effect,Be like at present SheHua trade friction has been to China"To expand the market space spread",This year the emerging market demand for the growth of China's foreign trade higher contribution,Such as China and Russia in September/Brazil's bilateral trade up by 14.2% and 5% respectively.Visible once emerging economies and developing countries trade friction between the upgrade,Will be significant to contain China's foreign trade growth space.

　　此外，相比欧美等发达国家具有相对透明化的贸易争端处理机制，及相对完善的法律体系，当前新兴市场国家的贸易争端处理机制和法律体系，尚不完善和透明，其自由裁量空间较大，且由于新兴经济体间有效沟通渠道不足，新兴市场国家间一旦发生贸易摩擦，就很容易以激烈的方式表现出来。因此，当前复杂而激烈的国际贸易保护，很容易牵制全球经济复苏，导致全球经济复苏失序，并加剧全球经济衰退风险。

In addition,Compared with Europe and the United States and other developed countries have relatively transparent trade dispute settlement mechanism,And relative perfect legal system,The emerging market countries trade dispute settlement mechanism and legal system,It is not perfect and transparent,Its discretion larger space,And due to the emerging economies effective communication channels between insufficient,Emerging market countries once produce trade friction,It is easy to with intense way.therefore,The current complex and intense international trade protection,Very easy to contain the global economic recovery,Lead to global economic recovery disorder,And fueling global economic recession risk.