未来中国经济发展的核心动力，在很大程度上将由金融业创新发展的改革程度所决定。随着收入分配制度、土地收益确权、匹配消费税制、国有企业深度改革等各项改革的深入，中国金融正开启新的征程，由支持经济量化发展的重要推手转变成为引领经济优质化发展的领袖。

The future of China's economic development core power,To a great extent by the financial innovation will be the development of determined reform.With the income distribution system/Land income counterpoising truly/Matching the consumption tax system/The state-owned enterprise reform of depth of the various reform deeply,China's financial is opening new journey,By the support economic quantitative development important hand slap into leading economic development quality of leader.

　　温建宁

WenJianNing

　　毫无疑问，宏观经济转变增长方式，培育和挖掘经济增长新动力(310328,基金吧)，作为万业之首的金融将担当重任。所以，金融业自身的改革，就成为重中之重。十八大明确提出“深化金融体制改革、加强金融监管，推动金融创新、维护金融稳定”，可见，在新一轮改革蓝图中，金融将从支持经济量化发展的重要推手，转变为引领经济优质化发展的领袖。这既给金融业提出了奋斗的目标和方向，也赋予了金融业重要的历史机遇。

There is no doubt that,The macro economy growth mode,Cultivate and mining new driving force of economic growth(310328,Fund it),As all the industry financial will bear responsibility.so,The reform of the financial industry itself,Will become top priority.Eighteen big clearly put forward"Deepening the reform of the financial system/The strengthening of financial supervision,Promote the financial innovation/Maintaining the stability of financial",visible,In the new round of reform of the blueprint,Financial support from economic quantitative development important hand slap,Convert to lead the development of electron particle materialization economic leader.It was to the financial industry puts forward the goal and direction,Also gives the financial industry important historical opportunity.

　　周小川行长前天在国际金融论坛(IFF)第九届全球年会上回顾近年来金融改变试点过程时，强调了重视自下而上的金融改革的重要性，同时表示中国是大国，地区发展不平衡，鼓励地方发挥改革积极性，允许试点积累经验。

The governor zhou xiaochuan the day before yesterday in the international financial BBS(IFF)The ninth global annual meeting review in recent years financial change pilot process,Emphasize the importance of the importance of bottom-up financial reform,Also said China is big,Unbalanced development in various regions,Encourage local play reform initiative,Allow the pilot accumulate experience.

　　在现代经济体系中，金融业的地位决定着其他众多行业发展的命脉。金融行业的跨越式发展，不但满足了实体经济的资金需求，而且给资本跨境流动创造了条件。金融业突飞猛进的发展，不仅将有效推动了产业成长，缓解实体经济对资本的渴求，而且也支持和孵化了一些崭新的、富有效率的新兴行业，能使这些行业在最短的时间内，从幼稚期快速跨入成长期，进而带动一大批配套企业迅速发展，既引领了新经济(310358,基金吧)模式发展的方向和潮流，也极大地推动了实体经济发展的脚步，遂把社会劳动生产率提升到前所未有的历史高度，金融业由此成为各行业中手执资金“牛耳”的角色。

In the modern economic system,The status of financial industry determines other industries the lifeblood of development.Financial industry great-leap-forward development,Not only satisfy the capital demand of the entity economy,And to cross-border capital flow created conditions.The development of financial industry by leaps and bounds,Not only will effectively promote the industrial growth,Ease entity economy for the capital desire,But also support and hatching some new/Rich efficiency of emerging industry,Can make these industries in the shortest possible time,From infancy fast into the growth period,And then drive a large number of supporting enterprises develop rapidly,Not only lead the new economy(310358,Fund it)Model development direction and trend,Also greatly promote the entity economy development steps,Hence the social labor productivity to ascend to the unprecedented historical height,The financial industry will be all money hand"ear"role.

　　从中国经济发展的历史进程来看，改革开放30多年来积累的实体经济发展成果，已给金融业引领经济发展奠定了坚实的物质基础。总结过去的这30多年，大致说来，每过十年，经济发展总有全新的内涵。第一个十年（1978-1988），尝试包产到户模式，实现了土地所有权和经营权的分离，赋予农民完全的土地承包经营权，调动了农民创造真实农业财富的积极性，全面激发第一产业农业，解决了全国13亿人口吃饭这个大问题。第二个十年（1988-1998），尝试以企业改制模式，发展第二产业工业，让企业所有权和经营权分离，调动了产业工人创造工业财富的积极性，解决了提高劳动生产率这个曾始终困扰着我们的难题。第三个十年（1998-2008），尝试住房商品化模式，改变了住房福利性无偿分配机制，以房地产为龙头的低端服务业迅速崛起，解决了社会资金积累、积聚和集中的问题。

From the historical process of China's economic development to see,Reform and opening up 30 years of accumulation of entity economy development achievements,Has given the financial industry leading economic development has laid a solid material foundation.Summarize the past 30 years,Roughly speaking,Every ten years,Economic development always have new connotation.The first ten years(1978-1988),Try to fixing mode,To realize the land ownership and the right of management separation,Endue farmers with complete the contracted management of land,Mobilize the farmers to create true the enthusiasm of agricultural wealth,Comprehensively stimulate the first industry agriculture,To solve the country's population of 1.3 billion to eat the big problem.The second ten years(1988-1998),Try to enterprise restructuring mode,The development of the second industry industry,Let the enterprise ownership and the right of management separates,Mobilize the industrial workers create industrial wealth's enthusiasm,To solve the improve labor productivity this had always bothering our problem.The third decade(1998-2008),Try to housing commercialization mode,Change the welfare housing distribution mechanism of free,In real estate for leading low-end services rapid rise,To solve the social capital accumulation/Accumulation and concentration of problem.

　　按照过去这30多年经济发展的内在逻辑，第四个十年（2008-2018），金融业确实具备了支撑经济进一步发展的火车头作用。房地产作为第三产业服务性行业，属于产业的低端位置，社会经济发展的长期选择，必然是产业由低级向高级不断升华，由粗放式向精细化不断进步，由低技术含量向高技术含量不断追求，由低附加价值向高附加值转变，这就需要房地产行业发展到一定程度，就不能占用太多社会资源，一定要释放出尽可能多的金融资源，去给新兴行业、高技术产业腾出发展空间，以促使经济向更高水平、更长远目标螺旋上升，促进第三产业进化到高端金融服务业，由金融引领社会发展进而成为消费时代的经济支撑点。

According to the past 30 years of economic development intrinsic logic,The fourth decade(2008-2018),The financial industry does have support further economic development of the locomotive function.Real estate as the third industry service industry,Belong to the industry's low-end position,The social and economic development of choice for a long time,Is necessarily industry from a lower to a senior constantly sublimation,By extensive to fine progress,From low technology content to high technology content to continuously pursue,From low value added to the high added value transformation,This needs the real estate industry development to a certain extent,Can't take up too much of social resources,Must release as many financial resources,To give emerging industry/High technology industries make space for development,To promote the economy to a higher level/More long-term goal has risen in a spiral,Promote the industry evolution to high-end financial services,The financial to lead the social development and the economic point in the consumption age.

　　概括起来说，未来中国经济发展的核心动力，在很大程度上将由金融业创新发展的改革程度所决定。如果说，中国经济先用了二十年，借助改革开放所激发的巨大活力，无论是在效率低下的农业领域，还是在生产率较高的工业领域，完成了渐次递进的物质财富的创造过程，实现了社会物质财富从绝对匮乏到相对丰富的量变积累过程的话，那么，接下来的十年，中国经济将依托金融业的巨大凝聚力，实现城乡居民收入能和经济增长同步提高，这也就是十八大报告中提到的在2020年实现国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目标。

In summary said,The future of China's economic development core power,To a great extent by the financial innovation will be the development of determined reform.if,China's economy to use for twenty years,With the reform and opening up great vitality,Whether in the low efficiency of agriculture,Or in the productivity higher industrial field,Completed gradually progressive material wealth creation process,To realize the social material wealth from absolute lack to relative rich quantitative accumulation process words,so,The next ten years,China's economy will rely on financial industry great cohesion,To realize the income of urban and rural residents and to improve economic growth synchronization,This is the eighteenth big report mentioned in 2020 gross domestic product and to realize urban and rural residents per capita income in 2010 than the goal of doubling.

　　无疑，目前我国的金融业距离这样的要求还有不小的距离，从现实出发，笔者以为，未来的金融改革，至少有如下四个看点：

undoubtedly,At present our country financial distance such requirement and a lot of distance,From the reality,The author thought,The future financial reform,At least has the following four aspect:

　　其一，收入分配制度改革破冰，破除限制个人才能成长空间的天花板，明确居民收入增长预期，增强微观金融活力，让底层民众能有机会实现中国梦。通过收入倍增计划的实施，既引导经济走上消费主导型的道路，真正从内核培育经济持久复苏的“造金术”，也充分尊重了民众收入增长愿望，由此释放民间巨大的创造活力。

one,Reform of the income distribution system ice,Limit one break to grow space ceiling,Clear residents income growth prospects,Enhance microscopic financial vitality,Let the bottom people to have the chance to realize China's dream.Through the income doubling the implementation of the plan,Both guide economy to step onto the consumption leading way,From the kernel real cultivation economy lasting recovery"Made gold operation",And fully respect the people desire income growth,This release folk great creativity.

　　其二，土地收益确权改革破冰，破除限制农民享有土地权益的天花板，村镇金融大大活跃，让对土地感情最深厚的农民也能享有财产性收入。通过土地的增值受益的实际共享，既唤醒农民沉睡已久的种地热情，拉动农业经济再次大发展、大繁荣，带动中国经济摆脱下滑危机，也切切实实增加农民的可支配收入，并且由此逐渐缩小城乡收入差距。

The second,Land income counterpoising truly reform ice,Break limit farmers enjoy the land rights and interests of the ceiling,Village financial greatly active,Let to the land feeling is the most profound farmers can also enjoy the property income.Through the land of the value of the actual benefit from sharing,Both sensei farmers into a deep sleep already a long time of sow the land enthusiasm,Pull the agricultural economy development again/boom,To promote China's economic decline to get rid of the crisis,Also make a determined effort to increase farmers' disposable income,And thus gradually narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.

　　其三，匹配消费税制改革破冰，破除消费与投资比例失调的天花板，让税收制度能更好地鼓励消费行为，居民投资渠道增多，消费金融实力增长。通过营业税改征增值税的尝试，既调整消费在整个国民经济中的地位，提高城乡居民的消费能力和消费实力，也同时降低政府投资过高的占比，把个人的消费权利还原给个人。

thirdly,Matching the consumption tax system reform ice,Break consumption and investment ratio imbalance ceiling,Let the tax system can better encourage consumption behavior,Residents increased investment channels,Consumer financial strength growth.Through the business tax change VAT attempt,Both adjustment of consumption in the status of the whole national economy,Improve the urban and rural residents' consumption capacity and consumption power,At the same time reduce the investment of higher than,The personal consumption rights reduction to individuals.

　　其四，国有企业深度改革破冰，破除资源过度集中的天花板，让中小企业能有机会成长为大企业，民企员工保障到位，金融资产稳步增加。通过对行业控制性国企的分拆和整合，既集中国企专注于国家竞争核心能力建设，致力催生重大发明创造，又能释放一些经济和金融资源给高效优质企业，促使有创新能力、适合做精做优的民企成长为世界级、有影响力的大企业，能在世界经济的舞台上为中国经济跃上新的高度而发挥重大作用。

its,The state-owned enterprise reform depth of ice,Break resources excessive concentration ceiling,Let the small and medium-sized enterprise to have the chance to grow into big business,Corporation employees security in place,Financial assets increased steadily.Through the industry controlling partition of state-owned enterprises and integration,Both centralized state-owned enterprises focus on national competition core ability construction,Committed to accelerating major inventions,And able to release some economic and financial resources to the high quality of enterprise,To have the innovation ability/Suitable for fine do best corporation growth for world class/Influential big enterprise,In the world economy stage for China's economic leap and new height plays a major role.

　　面对机遇与挑战，中国金融也正开启新的征程。

In the face of opportunities and challenges,China's financial is also open the new journey.

　　（作者系上海金融学院财税与公共管理学院统计系副教授）

(The author of Shanghai institute of finance taxation and public administration college statistics system, an associate professor)