龚方雄：尽管短期美国还有很大的不确定性，但解决财政悬崖问题的可能性非常大，美国会跳下财政悬崖的可能性也非常小。

GongFangXiong:Although short-term us to have the very big uncertainty,But solve financial cliff problem possibility is very large,The United States will jump down the possibility of financial cliff is very small.

　　曹远征：在全球经济再平衡过程中，中国经济正在发生深刻的、趋势性的变化。要想让经济稳定、可持续增长，只有进一步改革开放。

CaoYuanZheng:In the global economy in the process of balance again,China's economy is undergoing profound/Trend change.If you want to make economic stability/Sustainable growth,Only the further reform and opening up.

　　左小蕾：2013年特别要小心输入型通货膨胀，因为美国、欧洲、日本无上限的宽松政策，会引起通货膨胀。

ZuoXiaoLei:In 2013 to be especially careful to imported inflation,Because the United States/The European/Japan no upper limit of loose policy,Can cause inflation.

　　⊙见习记者 徐维强 ○编辑 于勇

⊙ trainee reporter XuWeiJiang ○ editor in yong

　　美国大选后面临“财政悬崖”，欧美持续实施量化宽松货币政策，但未来前景不会悲观，明年全球经济和资本市场有望更为明朗。在深圳高交会期间举办的“2012中国高新技术论坛—资本市场专场”上，多位经济学家和嘉宾分析认为，明年将呈现更为宽松的市场环境，无需因当前经济形势的困难而作出对未来过度悲观的判断。但专家同时警告，随着热钱的加速流入，国内应警惕输入型通胀的抬头。

After the us election face"Financial cliff",Europe and the United States continue implementing quantitative easing monetary policy,But future prospects will not pessimistic,"Next year, global economic and capital market is expected to more clear.During the carnival held in shenzhen"2012 China high-tech BBS - special capital market"on,Many economists and guest analysis think,Next year will present more comfortable market environment,Because of the current economic situation without difficulties and make excessive pessimistic about the future of the judgment.But experts warn,With the acceleration of hot money inflows,Domestic should be vigilant the imported inflation looked up.

　　出现“坏局面”概率很小 appear"Bad situation"Probability is small

　　摩根大通亚太区董事总经理龚方雄认为，明年的经济形势会比今年乐观很多。尽管短期美国还有很大的不确定性，但解决财政悬崖问题的可能性非常大，美国会跳下财政悬崖的可能性也非常小，因而会避免美国经济明年由于财政悬崖造成的深度衰退。从资本市场角度来看，财政悬崖无论是否解决，对美国资本市场的影响都是负面的，对新兴市场的影响则是正面的。

Jpmorgan chase Asia Pacific managing director GongFangXiong think,Next year's economic situation is better than this year a lot of optimism.Although short-term us to have the very big uncertainty,But solve financial cliff problem possibility is very large,The United States will jump down the possibility of financial cliff is very small,Thus will avoid the United States economy next year because of the depth of the recession caused by financial cliff.From the view of the capital market,Financial cliff whether or not solve,To capital market in the United States the effect is negative,The influence of the emerging market is positive.

　　龚方雄分析，美国财政悬崖解决的方案中一定会有增加税收的政策，而且是向富人征税，主要增加资本利得税和股息税，这对美国的投资市场非常不利，所以美国股市接连下跌。美国的钱越来越多，从而选择流往新兴市场，这些新兴市场也将成为全球资金的聚集地。

GongFangXiong analysis,The United States financial cliff solution scheme will have increased taxation policy,And it is to the rich taxation,Mainly to increase the capital gains tax and dividend tax,It is unacceptable to the United States investment market is very adverse,So the United States on the stock market fell.The United States more and more money,To choose a flow to emerging markets,These emerging markets will also become a global capital gathering place.

　　另一方面，欧洲明年可能面临所谓的小概率事件，即欧元的解体、全面崩溃的可能性非常小。龚方雄认为，由于欧洲不可能像美联储一样进行大规模的无限制的量化宽松，所以欧元区的经济前景仍然十分艰难。日本经济的好坏，主要看美国经济和中国经济。如果自民党在今年年底的日本政府选举中获胜，将促使日本央行加大量化宽松的规模。在全球疯狂印钱的情况下，人民币升值压力变大，中国货币政策要继续宽松才能避免人民币的大幅升值。

On the other hand,Europe next year may face the so-called small probability event,That is the break-up of the euro/The possibility of total collapse is very small.GongFangXiong think,Since Europe may not like the fed on a large scale as the unlimited quantitative easing,So the euro area's economic outlook is still difficult.The Japanese economy is good or bad,Basically see the us economy and China's economy.If the LDP at the end of this year in the Japanese government election,Will the bank of Japan to increase the scale of quantitative easing.In the global crazy printing money cases,The appreciation of the renminbi pressure bigger,China's monetary policy will continue to loose to avoid a big appreciation of the yuan.

　　中国经济正发生趋势性变化 China's economy is going trend change

　　中国银行(601988,股吧)首席经济学家曹远征同样对明年市场抱乐观观点。他认为，当前宏观经济正在发生重要变化，这将对中国资本市场和全球资本市场产生深刻影响。曹远征认为，当前世界经济复苏的势头并不强劲，欧债和美国“财政悬崖”以及日本的经济并没有走出低迷，这意味着经济危机之后，全球的经济在一个再平衡的过程中，可能需要相当长的时间，还伴随着深刻的经济调整。从全球情况来看，此次调整的第一个深刻反映是“发达国家都出现了日本化的倾向”，即政府的债务问题，欧债问题、美债问题和日本政府的债务问题都亟待解决。各国都会考虑采取一致宽松的政策，试图通过货币量的增加使经济复苏，但从过去几年情况来看，这可能可以防止更大的衰退但不能带来增长。另一个问题是全球流动性过剩，将引起全球金融市场的极大波动。

The bank of China(601988,guba)Chief economist for next year CaoYuanZheng also hold optimistic view market.He thinks,The current macro economy is undergoing major changes,This will in Chinese capital market and global capital markets has deep influence.CaoYuanZheng think,The current world economic recovery momentum is not strong,The debt and the United States"Financial cliff"And Japan's economy and not out of recession,This means that after the economic crisis,The global economy in a more balanced process,May need quite a long time,Also comes with a profound economic adjustment.From a global perspective,The adjustment of the first reflects is"Developed countries have appeared Japanization tendency",The government debt problem,The debt problem/American debt problems and the Japanese government debt problem need to be solved urgently.Countries can consider to take consistent loose policy,Try to through the amount of increased economic recovery,But in the past few years the situation,This may prevent larger recession but does not bring growth.Another problem is the global excess liquidity,Will cause the global financial market great fluctuation.

　　在再平衡过程中，中国经济正在发生深刻的、趋势性的变化。曹远征认为，要想让经济稳定、可持续增长，那样只有进一步改革开放，现在中国的改革进程正在加快步伐。例如，利率市场化的进程正在加快。

In the process of balance again,China's economy is undergoing profound/Trend change.CaoYuanZheng think,If you want to make economic stability/Sustainable growth,That only further reform and opening up,Now China's reform process is to speed up the pace.For example,Interest rate marketization process is accelerating.

　　警惕输入型通胀 Alert imported inflation

　　尽管明年市场局势将有望更明朗，但同时将面临输入型通胀的风险。银河证券董事总经理、首席总裁顾问左小蕾提醒，这将是明年影响中国经济的一个大问题。

Although the market next year is expected to more clear,But at the same time will be faced with imported inflation risk.Galaxy securities director general manager/Chief President consultant ZuoXiaoLei remind,This will be next year influence China's economy a big problem.

　　左小蕾也认为，美国大概率事件是不会进入衰退，而是有所改善。而欧债危机方面，2013年形势应该与今年没有太大区别，但欧债危机不是一个短期过程，会一波三折。今年新兴市场国家包括中国在内，经济增长同样在下降和调整，但是预计明年将会有一些微弱改善，这对中国经济最大影响是出口市场的变化，将倒逼中国转型。

ZuoXiaoLei also think,The American big probability event is not into a recession,But improve.And the debt crisis,In 2013 the situation should be this year has no much difference,But the debt crisis is not a short-term process,Will be full of twists and turns.This emerging market countries, including China,Economic growth also on the decline and adjustment,But it is expected that next year there will be some weak improvement,The Chinese economy is the biggest influence export market changes,Will DaoBi China's transformation.

　　左小蕾预计，明年中国经济增长将会在7.5%—8%之间，短期内政策依然延续今年积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策、适度宽松的产业政策。而明年影响中国经济的一大危机就是通货膨胀。左小蕾表示，2013年特别要小心输入型通货膨胀，因为美国、欧洲、日本无上限的宽松政策，会引起通货膨胀。

ZuoXiaoLei is expected to,China's economic growth next year will be in 7.5%, inside 8% between,In the short term policy still continue this year the proactive fiscal policy/The steady monetary policy/Moderately loose industrial policy.China's economy next year and influence a big crisis is inflation.ZuoXiaoLei said,In 2013 to be especially careful to imported inflation,Because the United States/The European/Japan no upper limit of loose policy,Can cause inflation.