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逐步建立市场选择的基准利率体系--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-11-21
外交部国际经济司 高伟
Foreign ministry international JingJiSi gao wei
基准利率是金融市场上具有普遍参照作用的利率,在利率体系中处于基础性地位。当前我国正在推进利率市场化改革,改革的重要内容之一就是要构造以市场资金供求为基础、以基准利率为引导、货币市场利率为中介的利率形成和传导机制,基准利率的选择是市场行为,应由市场选择。
Benchmark interest rate is on the financial market with a general reference to the interest rate for the role,In the interest rate system in the foundational status.The current our country are promote market-oriented interest rate reform,One of the important contents of the reform is to structure by the market supply and demand of funds for the foundation/To benchmark interest rate for guidance/Money market interest rate is the interest rate for the intermediary formation and transmission mechanism,The choice of benchmark interest rate is the market behavior,Should choose by the market.
国际上,同业拆借利率和回购利率是重要的基准利率。以同业拆借利率为基准利率的国家有英国(Libor)、美国(FFR)、日本(Tibor)、新加坡(Sibor)等;以回购利率为基准利率的国家有德国(1W和2W回购利率)、法国(1W回购利率)、西班牙(10D回购利率)等。在我国,由于金融市场的分割,定期存款利率、Shibor(上海银行间同业拆放利率)、回购利率和国债收益率等都实际上承担或多或少的基准利率职能。
The international,Interbank lending rates and repurchase rate is an important benchmark interest rate.In interbank lending rates as a benchmark interest rates countries have British(Libor)/The United States(FFR)/Japan(Tibor)/Singapore(Sibor), etc;To repurchase rate as a benchmark interest rates countries have Germany(1 w and 2 w repurchase rate)/France(1 w repurchase rate)/Spain(10 d repurchase rate), etc.In our country,Due to the financial market segmentation,Deposit interest rates/Shibor(Shanghai bank inter-bank loan interest rates)/Repurchase rates and bond yields are in fact bear more or less benchmark interest rate function.
我国普通民众在投资时,一般将银行一年期存款利率作为市场基准利率。但近年来一些地方高利贷问题严重,官方设定的定存利率与市场实际利率严重脱节,再加上定期存款利率相对“静态”,不是市场形成的,其基准意义被打了折扣。
Our country ordinary people in investments,The bank the one-year deposit interest rates as the market benchmark interest rate.But in recent years some places usury serious problem,The official set fixed deposit interest rate and real interest rate market seriously disrupted,Plus deposit interest rate relative"static",Is not the formation of the market,The reference meaning was hit, the discount.
Shibor被寄予厚望。Shibor是参照Libor(伦敦同业拆借利率)建立的,与Libor既相似又有所区别。Libor是离岸的欧洲美元的基准利率,完全由市场自发形成,不受监管,报价质量靠市场自律保证。而Shibor是在岸的人民币基准利率,有统一的交易平台,透明度高,在央行的监管下运行,建立了报价行淘汰制度,强调报价成交义务并引入第三方考核制度。
Shibor is expected.Shibor is according to the Libor(London interbank lending rates)The establishment of,And Libor is similar and different.Libor is fob European dollar benchmark interest rate,Completely by market spontaneous formation,Not regulated,Offer quality guarantee to market discipline.And Shibor is the benchmark interest rate of RMB,A unified trading platform,High transparency,The supervision of the central bank in the operation,Established the quotation line selection system,Emphasize quotation clinchs a deal obligations and the third party assessment system.
与Libor相比,Shibor的机制建设应该更完善。即便如此,巴克莱银行操纵Libor丑闻曝光后,Shibor还是因为与Libor相似而受到质疑。目前Shibor面临的主要问题有以下几点:一是统计采取的是虚盘报价,报价行没有在报价水平上成交的义务,导致成交价与报价之间可能存在背离。随着期限延长,Shibor同实际成交价之间的差距逐步扩大。二是报价行偏少,只有16家,都是大型商业银行,融出资金量大,报出的价格趋同,不能代表中小金融机构对市场流动性的判断。三是中长端成交稀少,代表性不强。四是Shibor在其他金融市场上的地位还有待巩固,比如我国债券市场上大部分浮息债仍采用1年期定期存款作为定价基准。
Compared with the Libor,Shibor mechanism construction should be more perfect.Even so,Barclays bank control Libor scandal after exposure,Shibor or because and Libor is similar and questioned.At present the main problem facing Shibor have the following points:One is the statistics is taken non-firm offer price,Do not offer in the price level of the obligation to clinch a deal,Lead to clinch a deal valence and quotation may exist between deviation.Along with the extension,Shibor with the gap between the actual price gradually enlarged.The second is do partial offer less,Only 16,All is a large commercial bank,RongChu there is big,Quoted price convergence,Does not represent a small and medium-sized financial institutions to market liquidity judgment.The third is long end clinch a deal the few and far between,Representative is not strong.The fourth is Shibor in other financial market position remains to be consolidated,Such as China's bond market in most floating rate debt still use one-year fixed deposit as pricing reference.
在充分吸取Libor操纵教训的基础上,我国需进一步完善Shibor形成机制。比如,建立强制交易制度和点击成交机制,增加报价的真实性和可操作性;扩大报价行群体,增加对市场有影响力的中小银行的数量,如农信社、邮储银行等;逐步扩大剔除的报价数量,降低异常或错误报价对Shibor的影响;大力发展同业拆借市场,形成Shibor报价的支撑;加强金融监管,打击市场操纵行为等。
In fully absorb Libor control on the basis of teaching,Our country need to be further perfected Shibor formation mechanism.For example,Set up compulsory transaction system and click clinch a deal mechanism,Increase the authenticity of the offer and operability;Expand the quotation line group,Increase the market influential the number of small and medium-sized Banks,Such as the cooperatives/YouChu Banks and other;Enlarge gradually eliminate offer quantity,Reduce the abnormal or error to offer Shibor influence;Vigorously develops the interbank lending market,Formation Shibor offer support;The strengthening of financial supervision,Against market manipulation behavior, etc.
除重点培育Shibor外,建立在真实交易基础上的回购利率,也可作为基准利率的后备。近期央行通过公开市场连续操作逆回购,既释放了流动性,拉低了市场利率,又传递了央行的调控信号,引导了市场预期。正逆回购利率基本为二级市场利率设定了上下限,回购利率作为银行间“资金锚”的作用得到强化。如果后期能坚持不同期限逆回购的大量长期操作,可加强回购利率的基准作用。另外,随着人民币国际化和香港人民币离岸中心的发展,在香港培育人民币Hibor(香港银行同业拆借利率),也可作为Shibor的离岸参考。
In addition to cultivate Shibor outside,Based on real transaction on the basis of the repurchase rate,Also can be used as benchmark interest rate backup.Recently the central bank through the open market continuous operation reverse repurchase,Both released liquidity,Down the market interest rates,And transfer the central bank regulation and control signal,Guide the market expectations.Is reverse repurchase rate basic for the secondary market interest rates set the upper limit,Repurchase rate between Banks as"Capital anchor"Role strengthened.If later can insist on different period reverse repurchase of a large number of long-term operation,Can strengthen the repurchase rate reference role.In addition,Along with the RMB internationalization and Hong Kong an offshore RMB centre development,In Hong Kong, cultivate Hibor RMB(The Hong Kong interbank lending rates),Also can be used as Shibor offshore reference.
由于种种原因,Shibor变动难以影响到中长端,甚至出现长短期利率倒挂的现象,限制了Shibor的基准作用。完善Shibor期限结构需要一个过程,所以将国债利率(国债二级市场的收益率)作为中长端基准利率也是可以考虑的选择。国债市场是财政政策与货币政策的结合点,进入流通市场的国债成为跨资本市场和货币市场的金融产品,与各类金融产品有较强的关联性。美国等一些国家就将国债收益率作为重要的基准利率。理论上讲,国债利率满足基准利率的基本条件要求,是无风险利率的最佳选择。但在我国,由于银行间债券市场和交易所债券市场分割,银行间债券市场交易规模明显大于交易所债券市场,使交易所国债收益率的代表性受限,但总体看,债券市场的一体化应是大势所趋。
For a variety of reasons,Shibor change is difficult to affect the long end,Appear even short-term interest rates fuchsia phenomenon,Limit the role Shibor benchmark.Perfect Shibor term structure need a process,So will the national debt interest rates(Treasury yields the secondary market)As the long end benchmark interest rate is also can consider choice.National debt market is fiscal policy and monetary policy combining site,Into the circulation market to become one of the national debt capital market and money market financial products,And all kinds of financial products have strong relevance.The United States and other countries will bond yields as an important benchmark interest rate.In theory,National debt interest rate meet the benchmark interest rate of the basic requirements,The risk free rate is the best choice.But in our country,Due to the market of the bond between the bank and bourse bond market segmentation,Market of the bond between the bank transaction scale significantly greater than exchange the bond market,Make exchange bond yields representative restricted,But on the whole the,The bond market integration should be the trend of The Times.
另外,随着国债市场规模的不断扩大和制度完善,恢复国债期货的呼声越来越高。如果国债期货得以恢复,将与定期存款利率、Shibor、回购利率、国债利率等共同形成更完善的基准利率体系。该体系运行一段时间,经过比较和竞争,逐步选择出最有代表性的核心基准利率,应该是比较稳妥的做法。
In addition,With the constant enlargement of the scale of national debt market and perfect system,Restore Treasury futures call more and more high.If the Treasury futures can be recovered,Will and deposit interest rates/Shibor/Repurchase rate/National debt interest rates together form a more perfect benchmark interest rate system.The system operation for a period of time,Through the comparison and competition,Gradually choose the most representative core benchmark interest rate,Should be more reliable approach.
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