严湘君

YanXiangJun

　　“很多专家学者用中国奇迹、中国道路、中国模式总结中国过去30年的发展，但我却更愿意用"中国故事"四个字来描述。过去的32年，中国故事的上集演得非常精彩，"十八大"后的下集能不能演好，取决于改革，没有改革就没有出路。” 国务院发展研究中心金融研究所所长夏斌近日在第四届友邦保险高端金融论坛上如是说。

"Many experts and scholars in China's miracle/China's roads/The China model summarizes China over the past 30 years of development,But I prefer to use"Chinese story"Four words to describe.The past 32 years,The story of China used to play very wonderful,"Eighteen big"After the next part can play good,Depends on the reform,Without reform, no way out." The state council development research center director of the financial research institute XiaBin recently in the fourth session of aia high-end financial BBS on said.

　　在上世纪90年代，就曾参与过中国银行(601988,股吧)业改革的夏斌用了六个字概括了金融改革的方向：企业、市场、调控。他说，金融改革的目标就是形成一个满足实体经济崛起的繁荣的金融市场，包括货币市场、资本市场、股票市场都要改革。实际上，就是要瞄准国外金融市场的一些框架，把金融机构变成真正的金融企业。

In the 1990 s,Has participated in the bank of China(601988,guba)Industry reform XiaBin used six words summarized the direction of financial reform:enterprise/market/regulation.He said,The goal of financial reform is to build a solid economic rise to meet the prosperity of financial market,Including money market/Capital market/The stock market will reform.In fact,Is to aim at foreign financial market some frame,The financial institutions into real financial enterprise.

　　夏斌提出，改革要以利率市场化为切入点，以人民币国际化为中心进行突破，“但是改革需要慢慢地进行，而非一夕之间的事情”。他说，事实上，中国的利率市场化已经改革了，并且改了很多。1996年我国开放了银行间同业拆借率；上世纪90年代末也尝试过一次利率市场化改革，但是没有成功。现在金融意识加强了，因此改革更要慢慢来。

XiaBin put forward,Reform in interest rate market into the breakthrough point,To RMB internationalization breakthrough center,"But reform need to slowly,Rather than overnight thing".He said,In fact,China's interest rate marketization has reformed,And changed a lot.In 1996, open the inter-bank borrowing rate;The 1990 s also tried a market-oriented interest rate reform,But without success.Now the financial consciousness strengthened,So reform more to take it easy.

　　当然金融改革不仅仅是利率市场化，也不是简单的搞试点。夏斌表示，从调控角度看，央行随着金融市场的发展、外汇和汇率的放开，主要目标会从贷款转移向价格杠杆，那么改革必然会涉及到调控和监管的问题。具体来说，比如政策性银行要不要发展，中央对国有控股银行的控股如何收放等等。

Of course the financial reform is not only interest rate marketization,Also is not a simple make pilot.XiaBin said,From the perspective of regulation,The central bank along with the development of financial market/Foreign exchange and the exchange rate let go,Main goal from loan transfer to the price lever,So reform inevitably involves the problem of regulation and oversight.specifically,Such as policy Banks want to development,The central of state-owned holding bank holding how to keep and so on.

　　在谈到今年的宏观经济表现时，夏斌坚定地说，目前的经济正在回归正常的发展速度。这个逻辑是由中国经济增长内部原因决定的，并非完全是经济周期问题，也不是宏观调控力量可以完全支配的。

In talking about this year's macroeconomic performance,XiaBin said firmly,The current economy is return to normal development speed.This logic by China's economic growth is the internal cause of the decision,Are not completely economic cycle problem,Is not the macroeconomic regulation and control force can be completely dominant.

　　今年一、二、三季度GDP增速分别为8.1%、7.6%、7.4%，下滑态势明显，有专家认为，这是起底反弹的迹象。但夏斌却表示，这将会作为一种常态继续维持很长一段时间。这并非悲观，而恰恰相反，三季度统计数据表明，最终消费对GDP的贡献超过了投资，同时单位GDP耗能正在下降，节能在慢慢实现，这些都是结构型改革正在发挥效力的表现。

This year/two/The third quarter GDP growth was 8.1%/7.6%/7.4%,Glide trend obvious,Some experts think the,It's a sign of bottom rebound.But XiaBin but said,This will serve as a normal to continue for a long time.This is not pessimistic,And, on the contrary,Statistical data show that in the third quarter,Final consumption to GDP contribution than the investment,At the same time, energy consumption per unit of GDP is falling,Energy saving is slowly realize,These are the structural reform is to work performance.