环球财经2012年第11期 Global finance and economics in 2012, 11

　　■ 中国人民大学校长 陈雨露

S Chinese people's university President Chen rain and dew

　　■ 中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员 马勇

S people's university of China researcher at the institute of international monetary MaYong

　　“大金融”概念最早由著名经济学家黄达先生在本世纪初期提出，而后在中国金融理论与实务界的共同推动下，对“大金融”内涵的阐释逐步丰富起来。特别是本次国际金融危机从实践角度印证了“大金融”的科学性与合理性，为“大金融”的持续深入研究提供了丰富素材。

"Big financial"The earliest concept by the famous economist yellow of sir in the early part of this century put forward,And then in China's financial theory and practice field under jointly promote,to"Big financial"Interpretation of the connotation of gradually rich rise.Especially this international financial crisis from the practice Angle proved"Big financial"The scientific and reasonable,for"Big financial"Continuous in-depth study provides rich material.

　　具体而言，本次国际金融危机至少给了我们三大启示：一是经济运行中的金融因素和金融规律远未得到充分认识；二是金融发展越来越脱离实体经济，系统性风险被长期低估；三是传统的经济学框架未能很好地整合宏微观层面的金融理论。

In particular,The international financial crisis at least give us three great enlightenment:One is the economic operation of the financial factors and financial law far from fully understanding;The second is financial development more and more out of the real economy,Systemic risk is long-term underestimate;The third is the traditional economics frame not well integration of macro and micro levels of financial theory.

　　基于此，《大金融论纲—一个全球性命题》（征求意见稿）在对西方金融理论体系进行系统反思的基础上提出了“大金融”命题，这一命题有四大内涵，分别是：宏微观金融理论的系统整合；金融和实体经济的和谐统一；金融发展一般规律和“国家禀赋”的有机结合；内外部金融和谐共融的全球化思维模式和跨文化意识。

Based on this,[Big financial LunGang - a global proposition](draft)In the western finance theory system are put forward on the basis of reflection"Big financial"proposition,This thesis has four connotation,Respectively is:Macro and micro financial theory system integration;Financial and entity economy harmonious and unified;General rules and financial development"National endowment"Organic combination of;The harmony of internal and external financial globalization thinking mode and cross-cultural awareness.

　　

整体框架和逻辑结构 The overall framework and logical structure

　　经济和金融发展的长期历史经验表明，影响一国金融竞争力最基本的因素可以概括为三大方面：效率性、稳定性和危机控制能力。

Economic and financial development of the historical experience shows that for a long time,Affect one country financial competitiveness of the most basic factors can be summarized into three aspects:efficiency/Stability and crisis control ability.

　　在稳定而高效的金融体系内，金融效率性产生活力，金融稳定性产生弹性，危机控制能力保证弹性，这三方面相辅相成，共同支撑着一国的金融竞争力。

In the stable and efficient in the financial system,Financial efficiency produce energy,Financial stability produced the elasticity,Crisis control ability to ensure flexibility,The three party physiognomy supplement and complement each other,Common supporting the country's financial competitiveness.

　　“大金融”命题的理论和实证分析，需要搞清楚金融体系的效率性、稳定性和金融危机控制能力三方面及其决定因素。从而构建高效而稳定的金融体系—形成合理的金融结构，完善金融监管体系框架、促进金融与实体经济良性互动，构建稳定和效率并重的宏观调控体系。

"Big financial"Proposition of theoretical and empirical analysis,Need to figure out the financial system efficiency/Stability and financial crisis control ability three aspects and its determinants.So as to construct the effective and stable financial system - form a reasonable financial structure,Perfect the financial regulatory system framework/Promote finance and entity economy benign interaction,Build a stable and efficiency of both macroeconomic regulation and control system.

　　危机后，全球金融体系呈现出四种趋势：首先，国际金融格局出现“再平衡的多边主义”；其次，国际货币体系从“一主多元”向“多元制衡”转变；再次，金融的功能回归实体经济；最后，金融监管走向了宏观审慎。

Crisis after,The global financial system presents four kind of trend:First of all,International financial structure to appear"To balance multilateralism";secondly,From the international monetary system"A main multivariate"to"Multiple checks and balances"transformation;again,The function of the financial return to the real economy;finally,Financial supervision to macroscopic prudent.

　　从全球经济发展史来看，作为国家战略的金融工具运用包括：为战争融资、促进海外贸易、加强对外经济控制、建立货币强权体系、促进新兴产业发展和实现经济增长转型。

From the global economic history to see,As a national strategy of financial tools including:In order for a war to be financing/Promote overseas trade/Strengthened external economic control/Establish monetary power system/Promote the emerging industry development and realize the transformation of economic growth.

　　基于“大金融”框架，中国金融发展的战略路径为：在产业战略上，形成市场化、均衡发展与混业经营；开放战略上，形成开放保护与国家金融控制力；货币战略上，实现人民币国际化；外汇储备战略上，推动建立全球经济网络；城乡均衡发展战略上，构建现代化的农村金融体系。

Based on the"Big financial"framework,China's financial development strategy for path:In the industrial strategy,Formation marketization/Balanced development and mixed operation;Open strategic,To form an open protection and national financial control;Monetary strategic,RMB internationalization;Foreign exchange reserve strategy,Promote the establishment of a global economic network;Urban and rural balanced development strategy,Constructing modern rural financial system.

　　具体而言，产业战略方面，第一，应进一步巩固银行体系在中国金融体系中的基础性地位和重要作用；努力发展制度健全的资本市场，与银行体系在功能上实现互补；尊重国情和市场规律，构建银行与资本市场均衡发展的现代金融体系。第二，努力实现利率市场化，利率管制所造成的金融市场分割和信贷结构失衡，是隐藏在“国进民退”现象背后的金融制度根源。比照国际经验，中国的利率市场化应该在2015~2017年之间完成。改革路径应选择：先贷款，后存款；先长期，后短期；先大额，后小额。第三，稳步推进混业经营。中国目前的混业经营程度处于国际较低水平。实证表明，混业经营总体上有利于金融效率和金融稳定。综合考虑效率和稳定，金融控股公司是中国混业经营的最佳模式。

In particular,Industry strategy,The first,Should further consolidate the banking system in China's financial system in basic position and important role;Try to develop sound system of capital market,The banking system and on the function realization complementary;Respect for national conditions and the market rules,Construction bank and capital market balanced development of modern financial system.The second,To realize interest rate marketization,Of interest rates caused by financial market segmentation and credit structure unbalance,Is hidden in"Countries people back into"Behind the phenomenon of financial system root.International experience in,China's interest rate marketization should be completed between 2015 and 2017.Reform path should choose:First loan,Deposit after;First long-term,After short-term;The large amount of first,Small after.The third,Steadily mixes industry the management.China's current mixes industry the management level in international low.The empirical result indicates that,Mixed operation on the whole is beneficial to the financial efficiency and financial stability.Comprehensive consideration of the efficiency and stability,Financial holding company is the best mode of mixed operation.

　　开放战略方面，由于发展中国家存在超越发展阶段的金融自由化现象，国家金融控制能力衰微，金融不稳定。针对这种情况，我们认为，应提高名义开放度，控制实际开放度，并在开放进程中保持适度的国家控制力。

Open strategy,Due to the developing countries exist beyond the development stage of the financial liberalization phenomenon,The state's financial control ability declination,Financial instability.In view of this situation,We think,Should improve the level of the name,Control the actual degree of openness,And in the open country in the process of maintaining good control.

　　货币战略方面，应构建人民币国际化的路线图。全球金融危机后，人民币国际化面临历史性机遇。中国应在未来30年通过两个“三步走”战略来实现人民币国际化。在使用范围上，第一个十年是“周边化”，完成人民币在周边国家和地区的使用；第二个十年是“区域化”，完成人民币在整个亚洲地区的使用；第三个十年是“国际化”，人民币成为全球范围内的关键货币。在货币职能上，第一个十年实现“贸易结算化”，人民币在贸易结算当中充当国际结算货币；第二个十年实现“金融投资化”，人民币在国际投资领域中作为投资货币；第三个十年实现“国际储备化”，人民币成为国际最重要的储备货币。

Currency strategy,RMB internationalization should build up the roadmap.After the global financial crisis,RMB internationalization faced with historical opportunity.China should be in the future 30 years through the two"Three steps"Strategy to achieve the RMB internationalization.In the use of scope,The first ten years is"Peripheral change",Complete the yuan in the use of the surrounding countries and regions;The second ten years is"regionalization",Complete the yuan in the use of the whole Asia region;The third is ten years"internationalization",RMB become in the global scope the key currency.In the currency function,The first ten years to achieve"Trade settlement change",In the yuan trade settlement as of international settlement currency;The second ten years to achieve"Financial investment change",RMB in the international investment fields as investment money;The third ten years to achieve"International reserves change",RMB become the most important international reserve currency.

　　在外汇储备战略方面，争取建立全球经济网络。中国超额外汇储备管理的目标应当是，服务于国家经济发展的整体战略，实现金融稳定和实体经济发展。中国的超额外汇储备管理应遵循外向性、战略性和多元性“新三性”。外汇储备投资应构建有效的全球资产组合。外汇储备应投资于占据产业周期高端位置的产业，瞄准战略性资源产业。

In the foreign exchange reserve strategy,For a global economic network.China's excess foreign exchange reserve management goal should be,In the service of the nation's economic development of the whole strategy,Realize financial stability and entity economy development.China's excess foreign exchange reserve management should follow the extroversion/Strategic and diversity"Three new".Foreign exchange reserves investment should be an effective global portfolio.Foreign exchange reserves should invest in occupy industry cycle high-end position of the industry,Aim at strategic resources industry.

　　在城乡均衡战略上，要努力构建现代化的农村金融体系。因为“三农”问题事关改革大局，中国转型过程面临突出的二元经济结构问题。“三农”问题的政治化，使得农村金融越来越成为事关改革全局的战略问题。目前中国农村金融发展面临现实困境，农村金融亟待“破题”。基于现状和发展趋势，应着力构建“合作性—商业性—政策性”三位一体的现代农村金融体系。

In the urban and rural balanced strategy,Great efforts should be made to establish modern rural financial system.because"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"Problems concerning the reform,During the transformation of China faces prominent dual economic structure."Agriculture, countryside and farmers"The politicization of the problem,Make the rural financial reform is more and more become a global strategic issue.China's rural financial development dilemma faced,Rural finance to be""".Based on the present situation and development trend,Should strive to build"Cooperative - commercial - policy"The trinity of modern rural financial system.

　　

金融体系的效率性及其对资源配置的影响 The financial system of the allocation of resources efficiency and its influence

　　高效率的金融体系是促进经济增长和实现资源有效配置的基本前提之一。金融体系的效率可从两方面衡量：一是金融体系本身的效率性，二是金融引导的产出是否具有效率。高效率的金融体系能够通过便利市场交易、促进资源优化配置和提供创新激励等功能促进经济增长。

Efficient financial system is to promote economic growth and achieve the efficient allocation of resources is one of the basic premise.The efficiency of the financial system from two aspects of measure:One is the efficiency of the financial system itself,The second is financial guide output have efficiency.Efficient financial system can through the convenient market transaction/Promote resource allocation optimization and provide functions such as innovation incentives to promote economic growth.

　　银行体系效率的决定因素包括：第一，宏观经济政策。宏观经济的稳定增长对于一国银行业的长期发展至关重要，在保持宏观经济持续稳定增长的基础上，稳步推进资本账户开放，有助于提高一国银行业的整体效率。第二，银行产业发展。银行业效率的提高，需要在保持适度资产规模和产业集中度的基础上，防止银行信贷的过度扩张和银行危机的发生。第三，制度文化发展。加强产权保护，促进社会信用文化水平的提升，将有助于一国银行业效率的整体提升。

The bank system efficiency decision factors include:The first,Macro economic policy.The macro economic stable growth for one country of the banking industry is very important to the long-term development,In the macro economy continued to maintain the stable growth of basis,Steadily open capital account,Help to improve the overall efficiency of banking industry country.The second,Bank industry development.To enhance the efficiency of the banking industry,Need to keep appropriate asset scale and industry on the basis of concentration,To prevent bank credit the excessive expansion and bank crises.The third,System culture development.To strengthen the protection of property rights,Promote the social credit culture level of ascension,Will help one country banking efficiency of the ascent of the whole.

　　影响金融市场效率的一般因素包括：产品数量与交易成本，信息处理与定价能力，创新能力与抗风险能力。

Financial market influence the efficiency of the general factors include:Product quantity and transaction costs,Information processing and pricing power,The innovation ability and the resistance risk ability.

　　金融市场效率的实现需要国家特定性因素，包括：与实体经济需求的适应性，与金融制度基础的适应性，与社会文化环境的适应性，等等。

Financial market efficiency realization needs special national qualitative factors,including:With the entity economy adaptability of demand,With the financial system the adaptability of the foundation,And social culture environment adaptability,, etc.

　

　金融体系的稳定性及其对经济发展的影响 The stability of the financial system and the influence of the economic development

　　金融稳定在一国金融竞争力的兴衰变迁中起着重要作用。稳定的金融体系是确保经济持续稳定增长的必要条件。不稳定的金融体系常常导致经济增长的中断甚至长期停滞。金融体系的稳定性同金融体系的效率性一道，共同构成了一国金融竞争力的两大核心要素。

Financial stability in the country of the prosperity and decline of financial competitiveness plays an important role in the change.Stable financial system is to ensure the sustainable economic growth necessary condition.The instability of the financial system often lead to economic growth interrupt even long-term stagnation.The stability of the financial system and financial system efficiency a,Constitute the one country financial competitiveness of the two core elements.

　　宏观经济层面，稳定的宏观经济环境、审慎的金融开放有助于金融稳定；产业结构层面，银行主导型金融体系的国家，较市场主导型金融体系的国家稳定性高；政治制度层面，政府管理能力、司法效率或制度发育程度较高的国家，金融稳定性越高，腐败程度高的国家稳定性低；金融监管层面，对金融业经营的过分管制不利于金融稳定，但市场监管水平的提高有助于金融稳定性的提高；在风险的传递扩张上，宏观经济的不稳定、司法效率低下的国家，一般性危机演化为系统性危机的概率显著上升。

Macroeconomic level,A stable macroeconomic environment/Prudent financial open help to financial stability;Industrial structure level,Bank leading financial system of the country,A market-based financial system country high stability;Political system level,The government's administrative ability/The judicial efficiency or system development degree higher state,The higher the financial stability,Countries with high levels of corruption low stability;Financial supervision level,To the financial industry business too much control against financial stability,But the market to raise the level of supervision to the improvement of financial stability;In the risk transfer on the expansion,Macroeconomic instability/The judicial efficiency country,General crisis evolution of systemic crisis probability to rise significantly.

　　基于周期性泡沫推动的金融危机，我们构建了一个新的全周期视角的危机分析框架。这一框架的基本要点是：在可动用的社会资源既定的情况下，金融部门的膨胀和超速扩张是以实体部门的萎缩和衰减为代价的；泡沫经济挤出实体部门投资并最终导致这些实体资本灭失的过程，是一个逐步的、渐进的过程；不断增加的金融杠杆、实际贷款利率的上升、实业投资收益率的下降和企业资产负债率的提高，表明经济泡沫程度和系统性风险正在加大；在泡沫最后阶段，当资产价格上涨超过了信用扩张所能支撑的范围时，资产价格泡沫达到了破裂的临界条件。

Based on periodic foam promote financial crisis,We construct a new full cycle perspective analysis framework of the crisis.This framework is the basic points:In the use of social resources established cases,The financial departments and the expansion of the expansion is speeding entity department atrophy and attenuation is cost;Bubble economy extrusion entity department investment and eventually lead to these entities capital loss process,Is a gradually/gradual;Increased financial leverage/The actual loan interest rates rise/Industrial investment yield decline and the enterprise asset liability ratio increase,Show that economic foam degree and systemic risk is increasing;In the final stage of foam,When asset prices are rising more than the credit expansion can support the range,Asset price bubbles reached the rupture of the critical condition.

　

　危机控制能力与金融竞争力 Crisis control ability and financial competitiveness

　　金融危机发生后，一些国家能很快抑制危机扩散，并在短时间内重返金融稳定和经济高增长的路径，而另外一些国家则在危机前软弱无力，最终陷入了金融体系失灵和经济增长停滞的双重陷阱。历史经验表明，危机应对能力的强弱，在一国金融竞争力的形成过程中具有重要作用。

After the occurrence of the financial crisis,Some countries can quickly inhibition crisis diffusion,And in a short time to return to the financial stability and economic growth path,Other countries are in weak before the crisis,Finally in the financial system failure and economic growth stagnant double trap.Historical experience shows that,Crisis response ability strong and the weak,In a country in the process of the formation of financial competitiveness plays an important role.

　　影响一国危机控制能力的主要因素包括：危机中的紧急救助方案，危机后干预手段和措施的有效性，危机后货币和财政政策的有效性，危机的早期预警机制，问题金融机构的处置等。

Affect one country crisis control ability of the main factors include:The crisis emergency rescue plan,After the crisis intervention means and measures of effectiveness,After the crisis monetary and fiscal policy validity,Crisis early warning mechanism,Problem financial institutions, such as the disposal.

　　我们对金融危机后的15种常见应对措施进行了实证分析，得出的基本结论是：第一，不存在“一劳永逸”的危机应对政策，一些政策措施虽然可以缩短危机的持续时间，但却可能导致较高的经济成本或增加对经济增长的负面冲击；第二，危机应对的各种政策措施本身就具有成本，这种成本可能转化为危机成本的一部分，从而延长危机持续时间或增加危机的经济成本；第三，金融危机一旦发生，其对经济的冲击以及由此产生的负面效应就已经真实地发生，仅通过危机后的补救措施很难取得系统性的理性效果。

After the financial crisis we have 15 kinds of common measures carried on the empirical analysis,The basic conclusion is obtained:The first,Does not exist"Once and for all"To deal with the crisis of policy,Some policy measures although can shorten the duration of the crisis,But it can lead to higher economic cost or increase the negative impact on economic growth;The second,Crisis deal with various policy measures itself has cost,The cost may be transformed into part of the costs of the crisis,To extend crisis duration or increase the economic costs to this crisis;The third,Financial crisis happened once,Its the impact on the economy and the resulting negative effect has really happened,Only through the crisis after the remedial measures is difficult to obtain systematic rational effect.

　　同时，我们对金融危机后的货币与财政政策的有效性进行了评估，结果表明，货币政策主要对危机后的短期物价水平产生影响，而财政政策则主要作用于危机后的短期经济增长（有助于遏制危机期间的经济下滑）。两种政策刺激或稳定经济的效力都集中体现在短期。过度的货币投放会导致通货膨胀，而财政赤字对经济增长的负效应将在危机结束后三年左右的时间内逐渐显现。我们认为，为避免大规模货币扩张和财政赤字带来的负面影响，一旦危机消退、经济企稳回升，之前作为“反危机工具”出现的扩张性货币和财政政策就应该逐渐淡出。

At the same time,After the financial crisis of our monetary and fiscal policy validity were evaluated,The results show that,Monetary policy mainly to the crisis of short-term price level after impact,And fiscal policy are the main role in crisis after the short-term economic growth(Help contain crisis during the economic downturn).Two kinds of policy stimulus or stable economic effect are all embodied in the short term.Excessive monetary launch would cause inflation,And the financial deficit of the negative effect on economic growth in crisis after the end of three years time appeared gradually.We think,To avoid large-scale monetary expansion and fiscal deficit have a negative effect,Once the crisis subsidise/The economy stabilises picks up,As before"Reverse crisis tool"Appear expansionary monetary and fiscal policy should gradually fade out.

　

　构建稳定而高效的金融体系 Build a stable and efficient financial system

　　那么究竟是什么决定了一国金融体系结构的实际选择？我们认为，经济发展速度影响金融体系结构，经济发展程度影响金融体系规模。同时，效率和开放是金融结构市场化的两大驱动车轮。

So what determines a country financial system structure of the actual choice?We think,The economic development speed affect financial system structure,Economic development degree affect financial system scale.At the same time,Efficiency and open financial structure is the marketization of the two driving wheels.

　　我们发现，在崇尚规则和权威的社会制度和文化模式下，更容易孕育出银行主导型的金融体系；而在崇尚自由的社会制度和文化模式下，更容易孕育出市场主导型的金融体系。“市场主导型”金融体系的国家比“银行主导型”金融体系的国家更容易发生金融危机。市场主导型金融体系国家一旦发生金融危机，其GDP增长率受到的负面冲击明显大于银行主导型国家。在金融体系结构的两个主要构成部分中，银行在某种程度上扮演着金融危机稳定器的角色，而金融市场则内含着某些诱发不稳定的因素。

We found,In advocate rule and authority of social system and culture mode,More likely to breed bank leading financial system;In advocate free society system and cultural mode,More likely to breed market-based financial system."Market leading"Financial system than countries"Bank leading"The financial system of the country more prone to financial crisis.Market-based financial system once the state financial crisis happened,Its GDP growth of the negative impact is obviously higher than bank leading countries.In the financial system structure of the two main constitute part,Banks in some extent plays the role of financial crisis stabilizer,Financial market is facing with some induced factors of instability.

　　金融体系具有过度周期性，货币稳定不足以实现金融稳定。金融创新日益频繁，金融运行越来越脱离实体经济。因此，需要建立新的宏观调控体系框架，促进金融和实体经济的共同稳定。我们提倡建立全面稳定的新型金融宏观调控体系，包括宏观审慎金融监管、纳入金融稳定考虑的货币政策框架等。

The financial system has excessive cyclical,Monetary stability is not enough to achieve financial stability.Financial innovation is becoming more and more frequent,Financial operation more and more out of the real economy.therefore,Need to establish a new framework of macroeconomic regulation and control system,The promotion of financial and entity economy common stability.We advocate to establish comprehensive stable new financial macroeconomic regulation and control system,Including macroscopic prudent financial supervision/Into the financial stability considering monetary policy framework, etc.

　

　“大金融”理论与中国的新型金融发展观 "Big financial"Theory and China's new financial development

　　中国的全球金融发展观有四大基础，分别是：第一，理论基础，即中国的金融发展必须遵循经济金融运行的一般规律；第二，价值基础，即中国的金融发展必须代表中国式经济发展的核心价值理念；第三，实践基础，即中国的金融发展必须立足于中国最基本的国情；第四，文化基础，即中国的金融发展必须体现多元文明共融共治的全球化发展观。

China's global financial development has four basic,Respectively is:The first,Theoretical basis,Is China's financial development must follow the general rule of the economic and financial operation;The second,Value foundation,Is China's financial development must be on behalf of the Chinese economic development core value concept;The third,Practice foundation,Is China's financial development in China must be based on the most basic national conditions;The fourth,Culture foundation,Is China's financial development must reflect multiple civilization communion between globalization development.

　　

中国“大金融”宏观调控体系的构建 China"Big financial"The construction of macroeconomic regulation and control system

　　货币政策方面，应在盯住通胀和产出的基础上，关注金融体系的风险状况。完善通胀指标统计，为政策决策提供可置信的信息基础。以价格调控为主，数量型调控为辅。

Monetary policy,Should be in gaze at the basis of inflation and output,Pay attention to the risk of financial system status.Perfect inflation index statistics,For policy decision provides incredible information basis.Price regulation is given priority to,An ounce of prevention is worth a quantitative control.

　　金融监管方面，逆周期监管应综合考虑银行广义信贷和社会融资总量。宏观审慎监管和微观审慎监管要结合和配合。金融监管政策和货币政策需要统筹协调。

Financial regulatory,Countercyclical supervision should be taken into account in the bank generalized credit and social financing amount.Macro prudential supervision and microcosmic prudential supervision to combine and fit.Financial supervision policy and monetary policy coordination need.

　　信贷政策方面，可选择盯住实体经济的融资需求满足度。应与总量性的货币政策相区别，主要发挥结构性调控功能。总体上应坚持市场化原则，提高效率和增强可持续性。

Credit policy,Can choose to gaze at the real economy financing demand satisfaction.Should with both monetary policy phase difference,Play the main structural control function.On the whole market principles should be insisted on,Improve efficiency and enhance sustainability.

　　关于宏观审慎的政策组合与搭配问题。我们的实证分析得出了三个基本结论：第一，政策规则。宏观审慎更青睐简单而清晰的规则，复杂的多目标规则反而会降低政策的稳定效果。“简单性是真理的标志”，简单规则具有更高的实用性。第二，政策搭配。各种宏观政策通过合理组合和搭配，可以更好地稳定经济和金融体系，并降低单一政策所面临的多目标困境和政策负担。不同的宏观审慎政策倾向于在不同的领域发挥作用，这可能与不同政策工具的比较优势有关。第三，政策实施。各种宏观审慎政策在实践中都涉及到方向和力度的选择问题，如果运用不当，可能导致“政策冲突”和“政策叠加”问题。“政策冲突”和“政策叠加”可能导致经济系统以一种非预期的方式调整，从而导致政策失效或效果失控。

On the macro prudent policy mix and match the questions.Our empirical analysis it is concluded that the three basic conclusion:The first,Policy rules.Macro prudent more favour simple and clear rules,More complicated target rules it will reduce the stability of the policy effect."Simplicity is the symbol of truth",Simple rules has higher practicability.The second,Policy collocation.All kinds of macro policy through the reasonable combination and collocation,Can better stable economic and financial system,And reduce single policy faces multiple target dilemma and policy burden.Different macro prudent policy tend to in the different fields play a role,This could be a possible problem with different policy tool of the comparative advantage.The third,Policy implementation.All kinds of macro prudence in practice were related to the direction and strength of the selection problem,If use undeserved,May lead to"Policy conflict"and"Policy superposition"problems."Policy conflict"and"Policy superposition"May lead to economic system to a kind of unintended way adjustment,So as to lead to policy failure or effect is out of control.

　　（本刊记者黄杨据会议资料整理）

(This reporter Chinese littleleaf box according to the data)