如何展望2013年实体经济增长的前景、金融改革如何承托下一阶段经济版图变化？

How to the outlook for the 2013 entity economic growth prospects/Financial reform how to underpin the next stage economic territory change?

　　“2012第一财经年会·金融峰会”近日在北京举行，现场汇聚金融监管决策者、经济学家等金融界精英，共论中国金融改革开放新篇章，共话未来中国新图景。

"2012 the first financial conference · financial summit"Recently held in Beijing,The convergence of financial supervision policy makers/Economists and financial circles elite,The theory of a total of China's financial reform and opening a new chapter,GongHua future China's new prospect.

　　围绕“中国金融2013：如何承托实体经济增长”，独立经济学家谢国忠、中国社科院金融研究所副所长殷剑峰、中金公司首席经济学家彭文生、美银美林大中华区首席经济学家陆挺、INET董事局成员Peter Jungen纷纷献计献策，思辨了金融业如何助力乃至推动实体经济增长、怎样的机制设计可以让“促增长”与“控风险”兼容、如何推动非正规金融的进一步发展等重要课题。

around"China's financial 2013:How to retainer entity economic growth",Independent economist Andy xie/By the Chinese academy of social sciences financial YanJianFeng deputy director of the institute/Cicc's chief economist PengWenSheng/Bank of America merrill lynch chief economist LiuTing the greater China region/INET member of the board Peter Jungen contribute in succession,Speculative the finance to how to help and promote the entity economic growth/What kind of mechanism design can make"Promote growth"and"Control risk"compatible/How to promote the further development of informal finance such important topic.

　　谢国忠： xie:

　　增长继续依赖投资将致金融危机 Growth continues to rely on investment will cause financial crisis

　　独立经济学家谢国忠称，过去十年，中国GDP涨了四倍，而考虑到组成部分变动，股指实际上是下滑的。经济增长较快但股市投资者亏钱的现象，说明中国政策关注中心是增长和就业，而非投资者回报，作为金融体系是帮助经济体系实现这个目标，造成资本是为政策主导分配的。

Independent economist Andy xie said,Over the past ten years,China's GDP rose by four times,And considering the component change,Stock index is actually the decline.Economic growth faster but stock market investors lost money phenomenon,Policy concern that China center is growth and employment,Rather than investors return,As a financial system is to help the economy system achieve this goal,Cause capital is for policy leading distribution.

　　谢国忠认为，这也与我国金融体系密切相关。我国汇率制度一直不开放，使得中国加入WTO后出口大幅度上升，引发了人民币升值的预期，但汇率在控制下的升值步伐始终落后于市场节奏，这就引起了投机。

Xie think,This is also in line with China's financial system closely related.China's exchange rate system has not been open,That China joined WTO exports substantially increased,Cause the appreciation of the RMB expected,But under the control of the exchange rate appreciation always behind the market rhythm,This caused speculative.

　　“大量资本在中国金融体系中积累，引起资本成本大幅度下降，进而形成了泡沫，在2005~2006年中国经济就面临了全面泡沫，从股市开始传导到房地产，再到其他方面资产，形成投资过剩，这也是今年产能过剩的根源。”谢国忠称。

"A large number of capital accumulation in China's financial system,Cause the cost of capital dropped substantially,Then formed the foam,In 2005-2006 China's economy will face a comprehensive foam,From the stock market began to conduction to real estate,To other aspects assets,Formation overinvestment,This is also the root of excess capacity this year."Xie said.

　　在谢国忠看来，长期以来经济呈现高增长、低投资回报的态势，形成了严重的投资过剩，而今天我们看到产能过剩、公司盈利下滑、房地产发展超前，都是这个过程带来的后果。

In xie seems,For a long time economic present high growth/Low return on investment trend,Formed a serious overinvestment,But today we see excess capacity/Corporate earnings decline/Real estate development lead,Are the consequences of this process.

　　对于下一阶段的态势，谢国忠警告，泡沫将开始破裂，但这会是一个渐进的过程。因为我国银行体系是国有的，所以银行没有对负债的企业逼债，这与日本1992年出现的情况比较相似。从这点来看，中国经济与日本比较每年的增长应该是下滑的，货币增长也将下滑，这是一个大趋势。

For the next phase of the situation,Xie warning,Foam will begin to fracture,But this is a gradual process.Because our country banking system are owned by the state,So the bank has no liability enterprise dun,This and Japan 1992 the situation is similar.From this point of view,China's economy and Japan is annual growth should be declining,Monetary growth will also decline,This is a big trend.

　　此外，谢国忠还指出，中国人口红利正在消失，城市化进程也几近完成，过去十年中国经济一直维持低投资回报率、高经济增长率，这在粗放型增长的经济体中是可能实现的，但下一阶段，如果中国继续维持这种模式，引起的一定是大规模的金融危机。

In addition,Xie also pointed out that,China's population dividend is disappearing,Urbanization is nearly complete,Over the past ten years China's economy has remained low rate of return on investment/High economic growth rate,The extensive growth in the economies is possible,But the next stage,If China continues to maintain this kind of mode,It is caused by the scale of the financial crisis.

　　“日本在1992年之后家庭和企业的负债开始大幅度下滑，而政府负债水平开始上升，两方面开始趋向均衡，但这一进程不能看作是一个发展，只是一个收盘，债务重心从民间逐渐转向政府，这样意味着经济进入了中等收入陷阱，经济发展将很困难。”他称。

"Japan after 1992 family and enterprise's debt began to decline significantly,And the government debt levels began to rise,Two aspects begins incline to equilibrium,But this process can't as a development,Just a closing,Debt the focus from folk gradually turned to the government,This means that the economy has entered a middle-income trap,Economic development will be very difficult."He says.

　　“当前，由投资所解释的经济增长比例为50%，从其他国家经验来看，这一指标到了30%就开始金融危机了，中国特殊的原因在于政府通过税收补贴投资，此外国有银行的金融体系，认为压抑了利息率。”谢国忠称。

"The current,The investment had explained 50% economic growth,Experience from other countries,This index to 30% began to the financial crisis,China's special reason is that the government tax subsidies investment,In addition the state-owned bank's financial system,Think suppress interest rates."Xie said.

　　Peter Jungen： Peter Jungen:

　　希腊退出欧元区不会是灾难 Greek exit the euro zone will not be disaster

　　对于影响中国经济的最大外围因素，即欧债问题，INET董事局成员Peter Jungen认为希腊可能在明年秋天就会退出欧元区，但这不会是一场灾难，反而会为新成员加入铺平道路，更能强化欧元区。

China's economy to influence the maximum peripheral factors,Namely the debt problem,INET member of the board Peter Jungen think Greece may be in next year autumn will exit the euro area,But this is not a disaster,It will pave the way for new members to join,More can strengthen the euro area.

　　“我们看到了亚洲的崛起，尤其是中国崛起，中国正在实现伟大复兴。” Peter说，“19世纪中国曾是世界最大经济体，10~15年后我们会再次看到中国重返世界第一大经济体的地位。”

"We saw the rise of Asia,Especially the rise of China,China is realizing the great revival." Peter said,"The 19th century China was the world's largest economy,10 ~ 15 years later we will again see China to return to the world's largest economy status."

　　在过去三十年里，世界经济取得了巨大发展，欧洲经济增长却相对较弱，反而债务却大幅增长。Peter指出，欧洲并没有出现货币危机，危机不在于欧元，而在于债务，尤其是一些南欧国家的债务已经上升到无法容忍的水平。“债务激增是经济失衡和丧失竞争力的表现。不仅是欧洲内部，欧洲与新兴市场之间的竞争力正在拉开差距，尤其是中国。因此，一些欧洲国家的结构性赤字是无法通过扩大支出来解决的，最终我们看到认为扩大赤字可以提高经济增长的观点只是一种幻觉。这是欧洲危机的一大教训。”

In the past thirty years,The world economy has made great development,European economic growth is relatively weak,But instead of a sharp increase debt.Peter pointed out that,Europe and there is no currency crisis,Crisis is not the euro,But in debt,Especially some southern Europe country debt has risen to the level of the intolerable."Debt surge is economic imbalances and loss of competitiveness performance.Not only is the European internal,Between Europe and emerging market competitiveness are crossed,Especially in China.therefore,Some European countries structural deficit is not by expanding spending to solve,Finally we see that expanded deficit can improve the economic growth point of view is just an illusion.This is the European crisis a big lesson."

　　Peter认为希腊退出反而能强化欧元区的功能，“希腊已经破产了，而且会继续破产。无论欧元区给出的救助方案如何，是无法解决问题的。” 但他认为这并不会是一场灾难，毕竟希腊经济的重要性不高。

Peter think Greece exit instead can strengthen the function of the euro area,"Greece has been bankrupt,And will continue to bankruptcy.No matter the eurozone given rescue plan,Is unable to solve the problem." But he says this will not be a disaster,After all, the importance of the Greek economy is not high.

　　Peter相信，如果希腊真的退出，这会向欧洲和世界传达一个信号：“欧洲终于开始尊重他们自己在20年前签署的条约和规则了，然后他们才会相信，世界也会尊重欧洲的规则。那么，即便希腊退出，波兰、保加利亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛，甚至捷克，还有丹麦和瑞典，都可能考虑加入欧元区，这样一来欧元区会比现在变得更加强大。”

Peter believe,If the Greek really exit,It to Europe and the world send a signal:"European finally began to respect their own in 20 years ago the signing of the treaty and the rules,Then they would believe,The world will respect the rules of Europe.so,Even if the Greek exit,Poland/Bulgaria/Latvia/Lithuania,Even the Czech republic,And Denmark and Sweden,Could consider joining the euro area,So the euro zone will become more powerful than it is now."

　　殷剑峰：中国经济面临三大挑战 YanJianFeng:China's economy faces three big challenges

　　业界有一种普遍观点，就是中国经济增速下移源于中国人口老龄化以及刘易斯拐点的到来。但也有人不这么认为，殷剑峰就指出，中国人口老龄化确实非常明显，但提刘易斯拐点到来为时尚早。

The industry have a common point of view,Is China's economic growth down from China's population aging and the arrival of lewis inflection point.But also some people don't think so,YanJianFeng is pointed out that,China's population aging really very obvious,But mention lewis inflection point's arrival.

　　“刘易斯拐点有两个标志现象，一是工资加速上涨，二是农村剩余劳动力耗尽。中国非农就业占总人口比重只有40%左右，而美国、日本、德国都是60%以上，所以中国可转移剩余劳动力还有20%，按照过去的转移速度能维持到2019年左右。”殷剑峰称。

"Lewis inflection point has two mark phenomenon,A is a wage rise faster,The second is the countryside surplus labor force depletion.China accounts for the proportion of non-agricultural employment population only about 40%,While the United States/Japan/Germany is more than 60%,So China can transfer of surplus labor force and 20%,According to the past transfer speed can maintain to 2019 years."YanJianFeng says.

　　殷剑峰认为，中国经济真正的挑战有三个：储蓄率下降、过量的信贷投放，以及房地产市场的超前发展。

YanJianFeng think,China's economic real challenge has three:Savings rate decline/Excessive credit availability,And real estate market in the leading development.

　　“中国储蓄率中政府储蓄占了很大比例，而政府储蓄的构成主要是土地财政收入，如果房地产市场出了问题，这部分储蓄就是受到冲击，因而难以维系过去的投资增速。”他说。

"China's savings rate in the savings account for a significant proportion,And the government savings structure is mainly land financial income,If the real estate market out of the question,This part of the savings is impact,So hard to sustain the past investment growth."He said.

　　对于房地产市场，殷剑峰认为，按照住房竣工面积来算，已经远远大于竣工需求，如果加上保障房数量，中国住房供给已经大于需求。此外，中国城市化慢于工业化指标的现象，在发达国家都有存在，这说明城市化的潜力有限。

For the real estate market,YanJianFeng think,According to the housing completion area to calculate,Have far greater than demand completion,If add security room number,China's housing has greater than demand.In addition,China's urbanization slower than industrialization index phenomenon,In the developed country has existence,This shows that urbanization potential limited.

　　对于投资的前景，殷剑峰给出了和谢国忠不同的答案，他指出中国投资前景很好，关键是投资是由谁来驱动。“中国的人均投资额在2010年只有美国的一半，资本产量更少，从增量资本产出比来看中国是4倍左右，低于美国、日本10倍、20倍左右的水平，因而投资一定是一个增长的动力。”

For investment prospects,YanJianFeng gives and xie different answers,He pointed out that China's investment prospect is very good,The key is investment is who will drive."China's per capita investment in 2010, only half of the United States,Capital yield less,From the incremental capital output than to see China is four times the left and right sides,Lower than America/Japan 10 times/20 times the left and right sides level,Thus the investment must be a growth."

　　彭文生：预计明年经济增长8.1% PengWenSheng:Next year is expected to economic growth of about 8.1%

　　对于一贯善于从数据上预估宏观经济的中金首席经济学家彭文生而言，明年经济将有一个温和上升。

For the consistent good at from the data on estimated macroeconomic zhongjin chief economist for PengWenSheng,Next year the economy will have a mild rise.

　　他预计今年经济增长7.7%、明年小幅反弹到8.1%，考虑到明年可能推出的政策组合，短期增长无需担心。彭文生判断明年还将持续当前的宽财政、稳货币的政策格局，财政赤字会比今年有所增加，从而GDP 0.4%左右，M2增长维持今年14%的水平。

He is expected to 7.7% economic growth this year/Small rebound next year to 8.1%,Considering the next year may launch of the policy mix,Short-term growth do not have to worry about.PengWenSheng judgment next year we will continue to the current wide financial/Stable monetary policy pattern,The financial deficit will be increased more than this year,Thus GDP around 0.4%,M2 growth this year to maintain the level of 14%.

　　“宽财政，稳货币的政策组合对短期稳增长效果明显，因为我国这个财政支出通常需要地方政府配套资金，所以财政政策对基础设施投资的拉动的效果非常明显，因此无需担心短周期的增长。”彭文生称。

"Wide financial,Stable monetary policy combinations on short-term steady growth effect is obvious,Because our country the financial expenditure usually need to local government supporting funds,So fiscal policy on infrastructure investment pulled the effect was very obvious,Therefore do not have to worry about the growth of the short period."PengWenSheng says.

　　但彭文生同时称，透过财政扩张形成增长将加大政府部门对私人部门的挤压，也会加大地方的债务压力，最终使得结构性问题更加突出和恶化。

But PengWenSheng said at the same time,Through fiscal expansion form growth will increase government departments to the private sector extrusion,Will also increase the local debt pressure,Finally make structural problems become more prominent and deterioration.

　　陆挺：不因监管扼杀金融创新 LiuTing:Not by the regulatory stifle financial innovation

　　对于明年经济增长，美银美林大中华区首席经济学家陆挺认为，现在的经济增长按同比计算在接下来几个季度都会往上升，达到8.3%左右后将于后年缓慢下行，呈现长期下滑的趋势。

For economic growth next year,Bank of America merrill lynch chief economist in the greater China region LiuTing think,Now the economic growth in the next few quarters year-on-year calculation in the will to rise,Around 8.3% in the year after next will slow down,Present long-term decline.

　　“为什么未来几季度经济增长速度会快一些，首先是对欧洲出口下一阶段将趋于稳定，其次是补库存周期将开启。”陆挺说，“还有一个技术原因是国家统计局大幅下调了去年年底和今年年初环比的数字，使得翘尾因素被放大，形成经济增长前高后低的走势。”

"Why the next few quarter economic growth speed will be faster,The first is to European exports to the next stage will tend to be stable,The second is fill inventory cycle will open."LiuTing said,"There is a technical reason is the national bureau of statistics sharply cut the end of last year and early this year the number of annulus,Make carryover effect be amplified,Before the formation of economic growth after high low trend."

　　对于明年经济中可能出现的风险，陆挺认为，首要风险来自于通胀和对通胀的态度。今年通胀形势低于市场预期，可能将引发明年下半年蔬菜等食品价格爆发性上涨。

Next year the economy for possible risks,LiuTing think,The primary risk comes from inflation and inflation attitude.Inflation this year the situation below market expectations,May cause the second half of next year vegetables food prices rising explosive.

　　对于中国经济、金融改革和长期增长，陆挺指出，中国金融业最大的问题还是在于管制，但并不是我们银行的数量太少，一个就在于我们对存款利率的控制，还有一个对信贷总量的控制。

For China's economic/Financial reform and growth for the long term,LiuTing pointed out that,China's financial industry the biggest problem lies in the control,But not the number of our bank too little,A lies in us to deposit interest rate control,There is a credit to the total amount control.

　　“因此我认为对目前一些突破管制的金融创新要有一定的容忍度，大家现在视理财产品、信托贷款为洪水猛兽、庞氏骗局、中国式的次贷。应该看到，尽管过去十几年全球金融问题很多，但并不能因为全世界有很多这样的金融问题，就阻止中国进行任何突破管制的金融创新。”陆挺称。摄影记者/吴军 王晓东

"So I think the present some breakthrough control of financial innovation it is certain to should have tolerance,We now see financial products/Trust loans for a great disaster/Ponzi scheme/The Chinese subprime mortgage.Should see,Although the past more than ten years global financial problems,But not all over the world because there are many such financial problems,China will stop any breakthrough control of financial innovation."LiuTing says.Photographers/Mr Wu jun