北京大学发展研究院的名誉院长、教授林毅夫 Beijing university institute of honorary President of the development/Professor Lin

　　和讯网消息 第四届张培刚发展经济学论坛于12月1日在北京举行，和讯网全程播报。北京大学发展研究院的名誉院长、教授林毅夫发表主题演讲，他表示，虽然中国从改革开放到现在30多年时间，它的经济增长9.9%，但收入分配越来越低，老百姓还是很不满意。

HeXunWang news the fourth ZhangPeiGang development economics BBS on December 1, held in Beijing,HeXunWang full report.Beijing university institute of honorary President of the development/Professor Lin lecture published,He said,Although the Chinese from the reform and opening up to now more than 30 years time,Its economy grew by 9.9%,But more and more low income distribution,Common people is still not satisfied.

以下为文字实录： The following is a text memoir:

　　林毅夫：最近参加了不少会议，有些地方重复，不过今天面对的都是专家，所以把同样的问题抛出来有利于大家去讨论和争论。

Justin yifu Lin:Recently attended a lot of meeting,Some places repeat,But today face are experts,So put the same question threw out to everyone to discuss and debate.

　　我个人看法，中国从改革开放到现在30多年时间，它的经济增长9.9%，这是经济社会的契机，成就是非常大的。但是如果到社会上去问，老百姓还是有很多不满意，不满意的原因是现实当中有很多不满意，固然大家收入水平很高，但收入分配越来越低，从改革开放初期我们是收入分配比较平均的社会，现在大概0.3，但是现在收入分配普通看法超过0.4，而且在社会上贪污腐败的现象非常普遍，有些案子揭发出来以后让我们觉得非常震惊。比如像山西一个县地方局的局长，对照出来以后他的资产超过7亿人民币。这种收入分配与腐败的社会围绕在一起，本来中国社会就不均等的情形，中国社会的老百姓都希望我们是美好社会的愿望，这样就造成即使改革开放这30年的成绩是世界经济史上的奇迹，但老百姓不满的情绪还相当普遍。

My personal view,From China's reform and opening up to now more than 30 years time,Its economy grew by 9.9%,This is the economic and social opportunity,Achievement is very big.But if the society to come up to ask,People still have many not satisfied,The reason is not satisfied with many of reality are not satisfied,Is everybody income level is very high,But more and more low income distribution,From the reform and opening up is the early we compare average social income distribution,Now about 0.3,But now the income distribution common view more than 0.4,And in society corruption phenomenon is very common,Some case expose come out later let us feel very shocked.As a county in shanxi local bureau of the director,Control come out later his asset more than 700 million yuan.This kind of income distribution and corrupt the society revolve around together,Original Chinese society will not equal situation,China's social people all hope that we are a better society wishes,That would give even the reform and opening up 30 years of achievement is the miracle of the world economic history,But people dissatisfaction is quite common.

　　当然这种不满的情绪不仅在中国出现过，在其他发达国家也有，这些不满的情绪经常造成政治、社会的不稳定，以至于我认为中国从经济发展的层面来讲，应该有维持8%，再发展二誓愿（音）的潜力，这跟张培刚先生跟各位的研究是相关的。实际上一个国家经济社会发展必须是劳动力生产力必须提高，收入水平提高。劳动生产力提高的前提是技术不断升级，再加上可以把劳动力资源配置到附加价值更高的产能，这是经济发展潜力最重要的来源和问题，其他的无非说这个潜力能不能发挥出来，但它不影响潜力。

Of course this dissatisfaction not only in China appeared,In the other developed countries have,These dissatisfaction often causing political/Social instability,That I think China from the economic development level of speaking,There should be a maintain 8%,Then two vows(sound)potential,That's Mr. ZhangPeiGang with your research is related.In fact a national economic and social development must be the labor productivity must improve,Income level to improve.Labor productivity is the premise of technology continuously upgrade,Plus can put the allocation of labor resources to add value higher productivity,This is the most important economic development potential of source and problems,Other but said the potential can play out,But it does not affect the potential.

　　从这个角度来看的话，我们现在即使32年的高速发展，但是我们所处的发展阶段还相当于我们临近国家5、60年代，他们可以保持20年8%的增长，但是在中国这个情况来看，他们是现实的增长。在国内也有争议，大家对社会有很多问题，贪污、收入分配，政治不稳定，即使32年的发展，像刚才厉以宁老师说的，我们是中等收入国家，要达到发达国家还要经过20、30年的努力，努力问题不解决的话是不行的。

From this perspective words,We are now even if 32 years of rapid development,But our stage of development is equivalent to our national 5 is near/60 s,They can keep 20 years 8% of growth,But in China, the situation,They are real growth.In the home also has the dispute,Everyone has a lot of problems to the society,corruption/Income distribution,Political instability,Even if the 32 years of development,Like just li yining teacher said,We are middle-income countries,To achieve the developed countries pass 20/30 years of hard work,Hard problem is not solve it is no good.

　　现在面对收入分配不均的现象，而且经常把收入分配不均跟腐败放在一起，中国政府确实拥有很多权利再分配，因此大部分想法说应该限制政府权利，作为比较社会性的改革，政治改革，用这样来限制政府的权利，减少腐败现象的产生。我想这种理论有事实的依据，也容易有理论模型。事实的依据是发达国家他们现在比较完善，他们腐败的现象怎么落实，他们收入分配的状况当然不是全部都好，当然也有一些北欧的国家，如果说限制政府的权利，资源怎么进行配置，消除了贪污腐败的来源，同时收入分配也就会解决了。有发达国家的经济，也有很漂亮的理论模型，问题说按照这种思路在发展中国家的改革是不是对的，因为我们发行进行宪政体制改革，当时在英国的体制下按照他们宪政体制去作为整个社会政治运行的规范，他英国的腐败现象、收入分配等等在中国不敢说有过之而无不及。

Now in the face of the unequal distribution of income phenomenon,And often the uneven distribution of income with corruption put together,The Chinese government does have many rights redistribution,So most of the idea say should limit the government rights,As comparing social reform,Political reform,Use this to limit the rights of the government,To reduce the generation of corruption.I think this theory is the basis of the facts,Also easy to have theoretical model.The fact is the basis of developed countries they are now better,They corruption phenomenon how to implement,They income distribution situation of course not all good,Of course there are also some countries in the north of Europe,If the right to restrict government,How resources configuration,Eliminate the source of corruption,At the same time the income distribution also will be solved.Have developed country's economy,Also have very beautiful theory model,According to this idea problems in developing countries is to reform the,Because we issue for constitutional reform,In Britain at the time of the system according to their constitutional system as a whole social and political operation specification,He British corruption/Income distribution and so on in China even dare not say.

　　拉丁美洲的现状是完全照抄美国宪法，但是拉丁美洲贪污腐败、收入分配的情形跟中国比同样有过之而无不及。苏联的国家不是从体制上去改，也是按照西方的体制设置来进行彻底的社会改革，现在的情形，包括联合国世界发展研究院做了大量的实证研究，发现苏联、东欧在彻底的按照宪政体制进行改革以后，它不仅发展慢，收入分配跟中国比较起来没有多好，腐败的现象也很多，其实美国收入分配比我们高，美国是超过0.5%，当然北欧的国家也很高，这种情况下，我们必须面对这次挑战，如果我们不能改善收入分配，我们不能解决贪污腐败的问题确实是中国未来发展一个最重要的问题，它可能影响社会问题，可能影响我们对未来的信心，但是问题是说，我们现在看到这些办法是不是真正帮我们解决问题。

The present situation of the Latin America is completely copy the constitution of the United States,But Latin America corruption/Income distribution situation with China than even the same.Countries of the former Soviet union is not from system to go up,According to the western system is set to make a thorough social reform,Now the situation,Including the United Nations world development research institute made a large number of empirical research,Found that the Soviet union/Eastern Europe in complete according to constitutional system after reform,It not only slow development,Income distribution compared with China without much good,Corruption phenomenon is very much also,In fact the United States than our high income distribution,The United States is more than 0.5%,Of course Nordic countries is also very high,This case,We must face this challenge,If we can't improve the income distribution,We can't solve the problem of corruption is indeed China's future development one of the most important question,It may affect the social problems,We may affect of confidence in the future,But the problem is said,We now see the way isn't really help us solve the problem.

　　从现存的经验来看，沿着这套去做会不会搞得更糟，我想这些想法很多没有釜底抽薪。限制政府的权利之后会不会抑制腐败，因为限制政府的权利之后不代表可以被另外的权利绑架。在拉丁美洲的问题是他们进行改革，以后政府被利益集团绑架了，利益集团所谋求的资金比原来还多。我可以举几个例子，现在全世界最有钱的人是墨西哥的通信业的老板，原来墨西哥通信业是国有，后来改革私有化，然后他绑架政府、垄断，墨西哥还是很小的国家，它的收入比比尔盖茨更高，怎么来的？就是绑架政府得到的。

From the existing experience,Along this to do will get worse,I think these ideas many no FuDeChouXin.Limit the government after the right will control the corruption,Because of limited government after right does not mean can be other rights of kidnapping.In Latin America the problem is to reform them,Later the government is interest group kidnapped,Interest groups have seek funds more than the original.I can give some examples,Now the world's richest man is Mexico's telecommunication industry boss,The original Mexican telecoms is state-owned,Later reform privatisation,Then he kidnapped the government/monopoly,Mexico or small country,The income of it than Bill Gates higher,How come?Is the government get kidnapping.

　　俄罗斯所有化，但是八大寡头垄断集团，从俄罗斯政府拿到的租金，一再证明比原来还多，可见腐败的现象更多，它拿到资金贿赂政府官员。

Russia all change,But eight oligopoly group,From the Russian government to rent,Repeatedly proved more than the original,Visible corruption phenomenon more,It to fund bribe government officials.

　　还出现另外的极端，这个政府被民粹主义绑架，当腐败到一个极端以后政治部稳定，政治部稳定以后政府对老百姓开出很多承诺，很多承诺以后，一种把原来的承诺忘了，另外一层这么实行，这么实行就不断的做分配，很多民税局就得了，失业率便高，越往后的话经济越不好失业率越高，恶性循环。

Have another extreme,The government is populism kidnapping,When corruption to an extreme political stability after,Political department after stable government to common people open a lot of commitment,After a lot of commitment,A kind of the original commitment to forget,Another layer to do so,To do so will constantly do distribution,A lot of people with tax bureau,Unemployment and high,In the words of the bad economy, the higher rate of unemployment,Vicious cycle.

　　原来4、50年代的右倾主义，绝不是提出一个很好的目标，把发展中国家陷入中等收入陷井。主要是只看到表象，这要求我们仔细分析背后存在的问题真正原因是什么？我想应该我们理解为什么中国经济发展那么快，收入分配越来越化，照道理说我们改革开放以后发展的模式是应该可以让每个人得到好处，而且得到好处的过程当中收入分配是在被改善，因为我们知道改革开放之前大部分劳动力变成农村的剩余劳动力，不能分享整个经济发展的果实。改革开放以后，我们劳动密集型发展非常快，创造了很多就业机会，大量农村剩余劳动力转移到城市里面来，他的收益甚至比农村里面高，而且这种发展方式有竞争力，所以我们才有30多年的经济增长。增长过程当中有就业，有公司收入，而且公司收入比原来收入高，而且我们知道这种发展方式资本积累非常快，尤其是说我们把剩余劳动吸收完了以后，在经济发展过程当中收入水平不断上涨，而且资本积累化以后，资本不断下降。我们知道收入的最主要来源是劳动者，劳动者变得越来越值钱，资本变得越来越不值钱，我们知道公司雇员越来越不值钱。

The original 4/50 s right socialist,Is not put forward a very good goal,The developing countries in middle-income traps.Mainly is the only see representation,This requires that we are behind the careful analysis of the problem of what is real reason?I think I should we understand why China's economic development so fast,Income distribution is more and more change,As truth said we after the reform and opening up development model should be that everyone can get benefit,And get the benefit of process in income distribution is improved,Because we know that before reform and opening up most of the labor force into rural surplus labor force,Not share the fruits of economic development.After the reform and opening up,We labor-intensive is developing very fast,Create a lot of employment opportunities,A large number of rural surplus labor transfer to city to come in,His income or even better than the countryside inside high,And the development mode is competitive,So we only have 30 years of economic growth.Growth process has obtain employment,A corporate income,And corporate income than the original high income,And we know this kind of development mode capital accumulation is very fast,Especially say we take surplus labor after absorption,In the economic development process of rising income level,And capital accumulation after the change,Capital declining.We know that the main source of income is laborer,Laborer is becoming more and more valuable,Capital becomes more and more cheap,We know the company employees more and more cheap.

　　而实际上东亚经济，日本他们是什么样？他们在经济快速发展的时候，确实经济发展非常慢、收入分配不断改善，原因就是刚才描述的过程。但是为什么我们这样发展却没有取得成功，我们主要是双轨制，原来发展的产业如果要保留它，就像墨西哥一样绑架政府，给原来优先发展的企业必要的保护，这应该讲在转型当中是非常重要的创新，即使这个创新在80、90年代被批评，不管在国外、国内都有人认为计划经济步入市场经济，最糟糕的是双轨制经济。但是双轨制给原来重工业补贴，这些补贴里面包括金融的例子，以大银行、股票市场为主的例子，资源价格最要命，拿到资金就拿到补贴，把钱放到体系里面。这个过程当中叫穷人去补贴大企业或者富人企业的发展，收入分配国有化。

But in fact the east Asia economic,Japan they are what kind of?They are the rapid economic development,Does economic development is very slow/Constantly improve the income distribution,Reason is that just describe process.But why do we so development did not succeed,We mainly is the double track system,The original development of the industry if you want to keep it,Like Mexico as kidnapping government,Give priority to the development of the original enterprise necessary protection,This should speak of the transformation is very important innovation,Even if the innovation in 80/In the 90 s has been criticized,No matter in foreign/Some people think that domestic all planned economy into market economy,The worst of it is double track system economy.But the double track system to the original subsidies to heavy industry,These subsidies included financial example,With big Banks/The stock market is given priority to example,Resource price most desperately,Get money will get subsidies,Putting money in inside the system.This process so that the poor to subsidies large enterprises or the rich development of enterprise,Income distribution nationalization.

　　税费是接近为零，税费是国家的，这才会导致说山西一个县的地矿局的局长一人积累7亿人民币的财富，因为它地下的矿几千万拿到，但是这个资产是几十亿、几百亿的。

Taxation is close to zero,Taxation is national,This will lead to a county of Shanxi Province said the director of a departmental accumulate 700 million yuan of wealth,Because it underground mine to millions,But the assets are billions/Billions of.

　　再来一些行业的垄断，比如说金融、电信，这个垄断不仅造成收入分配恶化，而且会有很多租金大量寻租行为，一个远打一个远挨，这是收入分配的问题。如果不把这个背后的原因消除，为了保留那些优势产业，如果说那些产业不能让它倒台，比如说苏联、俄国。不管国营还是民营都要补贴，不管什么样的宪政体制只要存在就要补贴它。

Some more industry monopoly,For example the financial/telecom,This monopoly not only cause deterioration of income distribution,And there will be many rent a large number of rent-seeking behavior,A far play a far get,This is the problem of income distribution.If you don't give the reasons behind the elimination,In order to keep the advantage industry,If the industry can't let it fall,For example the Soviet union/Russia.No matter state or private will subsidies,No matter what kind of constitutional system as long as there will be subsidies it.

　　所以我觉得这个问题是要解决，但是应该怎么解决？我觉得解决的方式是消除那些扭曲，因为在改革开放初期我们是资金极端稀缺的国家，如果不给那些补贴的话，如果不给那些企业补贴，今天我们是6000美元收入的国家，像有一些产业已经到了有竞争力，当时的政策有当时的必要性，实际上它的作用以及历史使命已经完成，如果让它存在就变成我们历史负担了，应该像十八大中所讲的消除各种扭曲，深化市场体制，让我们有完善的市场体制。

So I think this problem is to solve,But how should solve?I think that the solution is to eliminate the distortion,Because in the early reform and opening up our capital is extremely scarce country,If you don't give those subsidies words,If you don't give those enterprise subsidies,Today we is 6000 dollars income countries,As there are some industry has the competitive,The policy has the necessity,In fact its role and historical mission has been completed,If let it existence becomes our historical burden,Should be like in the eighteenth big speak to eliminate all kinds of distortion,Deepen market system,Let us have the perfect market system.

　　在这个过程当中我还想提一点，政府也不能做，像有些人讲的不干预进去，一个无为的政府，我觉得还需要一个有为的政府。为什么需要一个有为的政府？因为经济快速发展是结构变化的过程，这里面需要产业结构、基础设施各种安排，结构需要有很多外部协调，如果没有政府帮忙协调，而像有些人认为的只要做就是错的，即使有完善的市场，但是经济发展不能创造给你，比如像拉丁美洲、智力，但是30年没有新的产业，没有好的就业机会，结果那种情况下，民粹主义的舞台，民粹主义绑架政府，导致结果失业等等，所以我们了解真正的原因是什么？用釜底抽薪的方式来调节，同时让不同的制度安排包括拥有的市场是资源配置，在给这个产业资源配置的时候是需要的，但是经济发展结构不断变的过程政府也是需要的，像过去对资源太多干预，因为如果按照这个市场经济的方式来做，做赶超事情的话，政府的干预在减少交易的时候，而不是给租金给企业，既然不给租金的话，寻租的资金就少了。

In the process I'd like to make a little,The government can't do,Like some people say not to intervene in,A do-nothing government,I think need a promising government.Why need a promising government?Because of rapid economic development is the process of structural change,It need to industrial structure/Infrastructure all kinds of arrangement,Structure need to have a lot of external coordination,If no government help coordinate,And, as some might think just do what is wrong,Even with the perfect market,But the economic development can't create give you,Such as Latin America/intelligence,But 30 years without new industry,No good employment opportunity,The results that situation,Populist stage,Populism kidnapped the government,In the unemployment, etc,So we know what the real reason is what?With FuDeChouXin way to adjust,At the same time let different institutional arrangements including have market is the allocation of resources,In the industry of resource allocation is needed,But the economic development structure constantly change process government is needed,Like in the past to resources too much intervention,Because if according to the market economy way,Do catch up things,The government's intervention in reducing deal,Not to rent to the enterprise,Since not to rent words,Rent-seeking capital is less.

　　当然了即使有这样，我认为强调宪政改革的人也重要，因为无论怎么样对政府它的行为还必须有规范，但是宪政改革应当在这个基础之上，才能够达到它的目的，谢谢。

Of course even with this,I think that emphasis on constitutional reform is also important,Because no matter how for the government of its behavior must also have standard,But the constitutional reform should be in this foundation,To achieve its purpose,thank you.