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自循环难以为继 中国金融市场化改革提速--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-12-03
中国金融经过六十年的摸索,尤其是近三十年的快速发展,支撑了中国经济总量成为世界第二。但一流的经济体需要一流的金融,中国金融仍存在一系列问题和困难,如挤占实体经济部分资源和利润、货币效率低下、内部结构失衡、总体流动性差等,自循环模式已难以为继。目前,以金融脱媒、利率市场化、金融多元化等为导向的市场化改革已悄然提速。
China's financial after 60 years of exploration,Especially in recent 30 years of rapid development,Support the Chinese economy become the world's second.But the first-class economies need to first-class financial,China's financial still exist a series of problems and difficulties,Such as the entity economy occupy part of resource and profit/Currency low efficiency/Internal structure imbalance/Poor overall liquidity,Since the circulation pattern already unsustainable.At present,With financial disintermediation/Interest rate marketization/Financial diversified as guide marketization reform has quietly speed.
四大弊病
Four big drawback
首先,金融对实体经济支撑不足且挤占了部分资源和利润。几乎所有论述中国金融的报告和文章都会提到中国所谓的“两多两难”,即资金多但投资难、企业多但融资难。最显著的表现,一是小微企业金融服务不足。工信部数据显示,2011年仅有15%左右的中小企业从银行争取到贷款。二是农村金融基础薄弱,对城镇化改革支撑不足。上述问题的原因除了中国金融系统运行效率不高之外,就是金融强有力地挤占了实体经济本来应该分享到的一些资源,尤其是货币资源。有数据表明,2012年上半年,16家上市银行的利润总额占到全国近2500家上市公司利润总和的50%还多。可以说,中国金融机构挤占实体机构的资源与利润的现象已经到了不可容忍、必须调整的阶段。与此同时,中国金融系统还过分地强调自身的价值、收益和安全。作为国民经济大系统中的一个子系统,应该支撑国民经济大系统的利益最大化,而不是追求自身利益和安全最大化。中国金融体系自重、自大、自循环的现象也已经到了无法持续的状态。
First of all,Financial support to economic entity that the shortage and occupy some resources and profit.Almost all discusses China's financial reports and articles will be mentioned China's so-called"Two more dilemma",That is more than money but investment difficult/Enterprise and financing difficult.The most significant performance,One is the small micro enterprise financial services shortage.Work letter department data display,In 2011 only 15% of small and medium-sized enterprise loan from the bank to strive for.The second is the rural financial instability,The reform of urbanization lack of support.The above the cause of the problem in addition to China's financial system efficiency is not high outside,Is financial strongly occupy the entity economy should have to share some of the resources,Especially monetary resources.The data suggest that,In the first half of 2012,16 listed bank profit accounted for the national nearly 2500 listed companies more than 50% of the total profit.Can say,China's financial institutions occupy physical mechanism of resources and profit phenomenon has to not be tolerated/Must adjust stage.meanwhile,China's financial system is still too much emphasis on the value of their own/Income and safety.The national economy as a big system of a subsystem,Should support the national economy big system of benefit maximization,Rather than the pursuit of their own interests and the safety of the maximization.China's financial system self-respect/arrogance/Since the circulation phenomenon also has come not last state.
其次,金融体系总体的货币效率低下致社会财富冲水。有数据显示,2011年末,中国的GDP是7.41万亿美元,M2是13.43万亿美元;而美国当年GDP是15万亿美元,M2是9.7万亿美元。就单位货币创造的GDP而言,中国是0.55,美国是1.55,笼统地说,美国的货币效率是我们的3倍左右。再换个角度看,1990年中国的货币总量是1.53万亿人民币,2011年89.56万亿,21年增长近60倍,而美国同期货币量只增加了不到2倍,中国同期M2增长速度为美国的20倍。与此形成鲜明对比的是,中国1990年GDP1.86万亿元(0.38万亿美元),21年增长了20倍;美国1990年GDP为5.8万亿美元,20年增长近3倍,但货币效率1.6与现在基本相同。
secondly,Financial system overall currency low efficiency of the wealth of society flush.Data show,By the end of 2011,China's GDP is $7.41 trillion,M2 is $13.43 trillion;While the United States the GDP is $15 trillion,M2 is $9.7 trillion.Just unit currency created in terms of GDP,China is 0.55,The United States is 1.55,Generally speaking,America's currency efficiency is our 3 times the left and right sides.To change a perspective,In 1990, the Chinese currency amount is 1.53 trillion yuan,In 2011, 89.56 trillion,21 years growth nearly 60 times,While the United States money over the same period increased by only less than two times,China's M2 growth rate during the same period for the American 20 times.By contrast,China 1990 years GDP1.86 one trillion yuan(0.38 trillion dollars),21 years increased 20 times;The United States in 1990 GDP for 5.8 trillion dollars,20 years growth nearly 3 times,But money efficiency 1.6 and now basically the same.
再次,金融体系内部结构失衡致生产要素错配。所谓金融结构就是不同金融子系统之间的比例关系。按照吴晓灵的解释:金融四大系统分别是经营信贷的银行业、为企业投融资的证券业、相互帮助的保险业和代客理财保值增值的广义信托业;这四大行业本身由于功能特征与运营模式的差异,承担不同的风险,得到不同的收益。而中国的情况是,经营低风险信贷的机构平均收益过高,而经营高风险资产的机构平均收益偏低,也就是说传统银行业收益过高。其原因在于息差法定所致,在法定存款利率和贷款利率限定条件下,银行不论经营何种风险的客户都能获得一个最低的利差,从而激励了其趋利避害、规避风险的行为,将大量信贷资源囤积在并不一定最紧缺的低风险、低效率的国企或政府项目上,而最需要贷款、使用效率最高的中小企业却贷不到款。
again,Financial system internal structure unbalance the production elements mismatch.The so-called financial structure is the ratio between the different financial subsystem relationship.According to the WuXiaoLing explanation:Financial four system are respectively the banking business credit/For the enterprise investment and financing securities industry/Helping each other insurance and stead of the value of the generalized trust industry;The four industry itself because the function characteristics and operation mode of the difference,Bear different risk,To obtain the different income.And the situation in China is,Low risk business credit institutions average income is too high,And high-risk assets management institution average income is low,That is the traditional banking income is too high.The reason is that spreads caused by legal,In the legal deposit interest rates and loan interest rate limited conditions,No matter what kind of bank business risk customers can get a minimum interest margin,The incentive its disadvantages/Avoid risk behavior,Will a lot of credit resources in hoarding is not necessarily the most shortage of low risk/Low efficiency of state-owned enterprises or government projects,And the most need to loan/Use the highest efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises, but borrow less than money.
最后,金融市场发育迟缓且流动性差。截至2011年底,除了16万亿元股票、25.2万亿元债券和2.6万亿元公募基金外,60万亿元银行贷款、6.6万亿元保险资产、5.5万亿元信托资产、3.5万亿元银行理财以及1300亿元券商资管基本没有流动性制度安排或无交易平台,占到中国金融资产总规模六成以上。与此同时,由于金融市场制度缺陷、可投资产品少,资产证券化和金融衍生品创新步伐缓慢,一定程度上压抑了居民财富性收入的增长空间。
finally,Financial markets retardation and liquidity difference.By the end of 2011,In addition to 16 trillion yuan of stocks/25.2 trillion yuan bonds and $2.6 trillion public offering fund outside,60 trillion yuan bank loans/6.6 trillion yuan insurance assets/The trust assets 5.5 trillion yuan/3.5 trillion yuan bank financing and 130 billion yuan securities trader endowment tube basic no liquidity system arrangement or no trading platform,China's financial assets accounted for more than sixty percent total scale.meanwhile,Due to the financial market system defects/Can be less investment products,Asset securitization and financial derivatives the slow pace of innovation,To some extent inhibited the growth of the income of residents wealth space.
原因探析 Reason analysis
剖析上述问题的原因,我们认为,尽管市场经济改革在不断深化,但货币至今仍是生产要素中由官方管制的,这是目前中国金融体系诸多问题的根源所在。
Analyzing the reasons of the problems mentioned above,We think,Although the market economy reform in deepening,But money is still in production factors by official controls,This is China's financial system in many the root of the problem.
具体表现在以下三个方面: The specific performance in the following three aspects:
第一,价格官定,表现为利率“双轨制”并存运行。目前银行信贷是官定利率的典型代表,银行间市场利率虽由市场定价,但无论是信用债还是同业拆借利率,其定价基础还是在银行信贷利率上,因而本质上都是在官定利率基础上进行定价。
The first,Price judges shall,Performance for interest rate"Double track system"Concurrent operation.Currently, the bank credit is the typical representative of judges shall interest rates,Interbank market interest rate is for the market pricing,But whether it is the credit debt or interbank lending rates,Its pricing base or in bank credit interest rate,Thus in essence are in the judges shall based on interest rate pricing.
第二,规模官定,突出表现为对存贷比和贷款规模的限制。《商业银行法》严格限定了贷存比75%的上限并严格监管。此外,监管部门一方面通过参照上年信贷情况核定贷款额度和对超规模现象严加惩罚等手段严格控制商业银行的贷款规模,另一方面对商业银行表外业务诸如银信类信贷业务和银信票据制定严格限制措施。
The second,Scale the judges shall,Outstanding performance for deposit-loan ratio and the size of the loan restrictions.[Commercial Banks]Strictly limit the DaiCunBi 75% ceiling and strict supervision.In addition,On the one hand, the supervision department with reference to the previous year credit circumstances loans and super scale phenomenon punish severely, and other means strictly control the size of the loan of commercial Banks,On the other hand to commercial bank's off-balance sheet business such as such kind of credit business and such bill formulate strict restrictions.
第三,产品官定,突出表现为对创新业务和产品的管制。比如信贷资产交易和资产证券化等创新产品自启动以来由于受宏观调控严格控制信贷规模的影响一直步履蹒跚。上述原因的破除,有待于金融市场化改革的深化和加速。
The third,Product the judges shall,Outstanding performance for innovation business and product control.Such as credit assets transaction and asset securitization, and other innovative products since since the launch by the macroeconomic regulation and control strictly control the size of credit influence has been rolled up.The reason of the break,To the deepening of the reform of the financial market and accelerating.
悄然提速 Quietly speed
观察中国金融改革近期的悄然提速,大体可以抓住以下几条主线:
Observe China's financial reform recent speed quietly,General can seize the following a few lines:
第一是金融脱媒,或称存贷款脱媒化。上个世纪开始兴起的金融脱媒,其实质是投资者(或储户)直接向筹资者进行资金与回报的交换。金融脱媒包括存款端脱媒和贷款端脱媒。贷款端脱媒主要指企业综合考虑资金成本、便捷成本、时间成本等因素后,采用信用债券等直接融资方式替代手续繁杂、要求苛刻的贷款的融资行为。目前中国贷款端脱媒率大约在12%左右,与国际上部分接近50%的发达市场比仍有较大差距。存款端脱媒实际上就是由居民风险收益诉求、风险偏好变化所引起的购买理财、信托等低风险高收益的财富管理产品来替代存款的行为。从银行角色上看,存贷脱媒使得银行在融资中充当的不再是资金中介的作用,而是提供资产管理和投资银行等中间业务服务;获取收益方式也从存贷利差转变为手续费、中间业务费等财富管理收入。贷款脱媒的过程意味着,一方面过去集中在银行的存贷款利差向社会资金开放,另一方面风险由银行向全社会泛化,因此诸如投资者教育、银行管理能力等问题成为新的焦点。
The first is financial disintermediation,Or say loan disintermediation change.The last century began to rise of financial disintermediation,Its essence is investors(Or customer)People who are directly to raise funds and the exchange of return.Financial disintermediation including deposit end disintermediation and loan end disintermediation.Loans end disintermediation refers to enterprise comprehensive consideration of the cost of capital/Convenient cost/Time cost factors,The direct financing such as the issuance of credit way alternative procedure multifarious/Requirements harsh loan financing behavior.At present Chinese loan end disintermediation rate at about 12%,And the international part of close to 50% of the developed market than there are still a large gap.Deposit end disintermediation is actually risk by residents income appeals/Risk preference change caused by the financial purchase/Trust and low risk high yield wealth management products to replace the behavior of the deposit.From the bank on the role,Deposit-loan disintermediation make bank in financing act as it is no longer the fund intermediary role,But provide asset management and investment Banks and other intermediate business services;For income from savings and spread ways into commission/Intermediate business expenses and wealth management income.Loan disintermediation process means,On the one hand the past focus on bank loan interest margin of social capital to open,On the other hand, by the bank risk to whole society generalization,Therefore such as investor education/Bank management ability problems become the new focus.
第二是利率市场化。如果说金融脱媒是金融结构数量上的纠正的话,那么利率市场化就是金融结构在价格上的纠正。中国的利率市场化改革基本遵循着从双轨制价格渐进过渡到单一市场价格这一中国改革基本经验,先后持续十多年左右。首先在存款端由法定存款利率向上移,以吸引风险承受能力更强追求高收益的客户;在贷款端,既允许在法定贷款利率基础上最多下浮30%,同时也有境外人民币的低息压力,双向浮动。从长期看,存款端利率逐渐向货币市场利率靠近,而贷款端利率逐渐与信用债靠近。
The second is interest rate marketization.If financial disintermediation is financial structure on the number of the correct words,So interest rate marketization is financial structure in price correction.China's interest rate marketization reform basic follow from the double price gradual transition to a single market price the basic experience of China's reform,Has continued for more than ten years or so.First in the deposit is driven by legal deposit rate moving upward,To attract risk to bear ability stronger the pursuit of high yield customers;In the end of the loan,Allowing in legal loan interest rate most based on lower 30%,At the same time also have overseas yuan cheap pressure,Two-way floating.In the long run,Deposit interest rates gradually end to monetary market interest rates close to,And loan end interest rates gradually and credit debt near.
第三是金融多元化,实际就是混业经营趋势,基金、证券、保险等非银行金融机构贯通并获得长足发展。近期证监会和保监会的新政总体趋势是市场化的、开放竞争的、相互贯通的,各类型机构重在提升市场化能力而使得“牌照”含金量下降,从而更有利于实现金融“十二五规划”提出的“使得资金能够在不同市场间有序流动”的目标。
The third is financial diversified,The actual is mixed management trend,fund/securities/Insurance non-bank financial institutions through and get great progress.Recent securities regulatory commission and the China insurance regulatory commission of the New Deal the overall trend is market/Open competition/Mutual penetration the,Various types of institutions focuses on ascension marketization ability and make"licence"Gold content decline,Which is more advantageous to realize financial"1025 planning"Put forward"To make money in different between market orderly flow"goal.
第四是放宽民间金融。有两个趋势值得重视:一是温州金融综改试验区总体方案的出炉,在探索民间融资规范化和阳光化途径、鼓励和引导民间资本进入金融服务领域、畅通民间投资渠道、拓宽小微企业融资渠道等方面有着积极的制度改革示范意义。二是互联网金融,目前已悄然兴起的以移动支付、云计算、社交网络和搜索引擎为代表的互联网信息技术在不久的将来可能引领一场全新的互联网金融变革,从而深刻改变中国的金融业态。
The fourth is to broaden the folk finance.There are two trends worth paying attention to:One is the wenzhou financial heddle change test site overall plan are,In exploring folk financing standardization and sunshine change way/Encourage and guide the folk capital into financial services/Clear folk investment channels/Broaden the financing channels of small micro enterprise has positive system reform demonstration significance.The second is the Internet financial,At present already sadly arisen in mobile payment/Cloud computing/Social networking and search engine as a representative of the Internet information technology in the near future may lead a new Internet financial reform,Thus profound change China's financial format.
第五是加速金融市场建设。中国金融市场的加快发展恰好与此次的金融改革相互呼应、互为因果。目前,股票市场的主板市场、中小板、创业板、新三板以及柜台市场基本成型,但融资功能的发挥和继续完善的任务仍然艰巨。债券多层次市场体系建设已提上日程,但诸如银行理财、信托、私募基金等非标准化金融产品市场建设仍较为滞后,流动性制度安排较为缺乏。推进多层次金融市场体系建设不仅是金融改革的重要突破口,也是决定金融改革进程和成败的关键因素之一。
The fifth is to speed up financial market construction.To speed up the development of the financial market of China just and the financial reform mutual echo/Reciprocal causation.At present,The stock market main board market/Small and medium-sized plate/gem/The new SanBan and counter market basic forming,But the financing function of the play and we will continue to improve the task is still arduous.Bond multi-level market system construction has been put on the agenda,But such as bank financing/trust/Private equity funds are not standardized financial products market construction is still relatively lag,Liquidity is the lack of system arrangement.Promote multi-level financial market system construction is not only an important breakthrough in the financial reform,Is also decided to financial reform process and one of the key factors of success or failure.
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