2012年以来，货币供应量，特别是M1增速下降明显。2012年前10个月M1同比增速仅为6.1%，较2011年低7.5个百分点。货币供应量曾被视为反映企业资金状况和经济景气度的重要信号，是官方关注的最重要的货币政策中介目标。但在本文，我们将试图说明在大量金融创新产生的新金融环境下，货币供应量的可测性、可控性和与实体经济的相关性均大为减弱，已经不适合继续作为货币政策中介目标。货币当局对金融形势的研判必须结合社会融资规模等多个指标。

Since 2012,Money supply,Especially the M1 growth down significantly.2012 years ago ten months M1 year-on-year growth is only 6.1%,A 7.5% lower in 2011.Money supply has been regarded as reflecting enterprise capital position and economic boom of important signal,Is the official concern most important intermediate target for monetary policy.But in this paper,We will try to explain in a large number of financial innovation which new financial environment,Money supply measurability/Controllability and the correlation of entity economy are greatly abate,Is not suitable for to continue as the intermediate target of monetary policy.Monetary authorities on the financial situation of the judge must be combined with social financing scale, and other indicators.

　　所谓新金融是相对于传统金融而言的，是金融创新的结果。狭义而言，所谓新金融就是以直接投资为主导，以新金融组织和新金融业态为特征，以新金融工具、新金融产品为引领的一种新的金融现象和趋势。所谓货币政策中介目标，是介于货币政策工具和货币政策最终目标的经济变量，这些变量既受中央银行货币政策工具变动的影响，反映与体现货币政策操作的效果，又和最终目标存在稳定的关系，从而能够影响最终目标的实现。

The so-called new finance is compared with the traditional financial character,Is the result of financial innovation.In narrow sense,The so-called new financial is to direct investment as the leading factor,New financial organizations and new financial format for features,New financial instruments/The new financial products for leading a new financial phenomena and trends.The intermediate target of monetary policy,Is between the monetary policy tools and the ultimate goal of monetary policy of economic variables,These variables is influenced by both the central bank monetary policy tool changes,Reflect and reflect the effect of monetary policy operation,And the ultimate goal existence and stability of the relationship,Which can affect the realization of the ultimate goal.

　　由于货币政策的作用机理的滞后性、动态性以及货币当局可能存在机会主义行为，因此一个有效的货币政策操作框架中，中介目标的选择是一个非常重要的环节。货币理论一般认为，选择货币政策中介目标必须考虑三个标准：（1）可测性，即中央银行不仅能及时准确地获取有关中介目标的资料，而且中介目标的内涵和外延较为明确、稳定，中央银行能据此作出分析，社会其他人员能据此作出预测、判断。（2）可控性，就是中央银行通过操作其货币政策工具，能够准确地控制中介目标参数的变动情况。（3）相关性，即货币当局选择的中介目标必须与货币政策最终目标有密切的相关性。此外，中介目标还必须与特定的经济金融环境相适应。在特定的条件下，由于经济金融环境不同，中央银行置身的经济体制背景不同，中央银行为实现其不同的货币政策目标所采取的货币政策就不同。

Because of the role of monetary policy mechanism of hysteresis/Dynamic and monetary authorities may be opportunistic behavior,So an effective monetary policy operation framework,The choice of intermediate target is a very important link.Monetary theory generally think,Choice of intermediate target for monetary policy must consider three standard:(1)measurable,That is, the central bank can not only access to the timely and accurate data of intermediate target,And the denotation and connotation of the intermediate target more clearly/stable,The central bank can we made analysis,Other social workers can make a prediction accordingly/judgment.(2)controllability,Is the central bank through the operation its monetary policy tools,Can accurately control the intermediary target parameter changes.(3)correlation,That is the choice of intermediate target monetary authorities must be the ultimate goal of monetary policy are closely related.In addition,Intermediary goal must also and certain economic and financial environment.In certain conditions,Due to the different economic and financial environment,The central bank in economic system from different backgrounds,The central bank to achieve the different goals of monetary policy adopted by the monetary policy is different.

　　20世纪 90年代以来，越来越多的国家转向了利率、汇率或通胀等价格型中介目标，即使是采用货币数量目标的国家，也注意控制利率、汇率和通货膨胀等变量。而中国货币当局1994年开始货币统计与货币层次的划分，1996年正式将货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标。虽然遭受了一定的质疑，但目前货币供应量仍是我国货币当局最重要的中介目标。

Since the 1990 s,More and more countries to interest rates/Exchange rate or price inflation and intermediate target type,Even if the number of currency target country,Also pay attention to control interest rates/Exchange rate and inflation variable.And China's monetary authorities began in 1994 monetary statistics and monetary level of division,In 1996, after the official will money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy.Although suffered a certain question,But the money supply is still China's monetary authorities of the most important intermediate target.

　　但是，由于金融创新产生新的金融业态、新的金融工具和新的金融机构等，传统的货币统计及货币层次的划分越来越不能适应新金融环境的要求，货币供应量的可测性、可控性和相关性均不同程度地受到金融创新的影响。

but,Because of financial innovation produces new financial format/New financial tools and new financial institutions, etc,The traditional monetary statistics and monetary level division more and more can not adapt to the requirements of the new financial environment,Money supply measurability/Controllability and correlation are different degree by the influence of financial innovation.

　　金融创新削弱了货币供应量的可测性 Financial innovation weaken the currency supply measurability

　　各国央行在确定货币供应量统计口径时，根据流动性强弱，即货币执行流通手段和支付手段的方便程度作为标准，将货币供给量划分为不同的层次加以检测、分析和调控。例如在我国，M0是指流通中的现金，M1指M0＋企业活期存款，M2指M1＋准货币（定期存款+居民储蓄存款+其他存款等）。

Central Banks in the determination of the money supply when statistics caliber,According to the liquidity strong or weak,Namely monetary executive circulation method and the means of payment convenient degree as the standard,Will money supply is divided into different levels to detection/Analysis and control.For example, in our country,M0 refers to cash in circulation,M1 refers to M0 + enterprise demand deposits,M2 refers to the M1 + quasi currency(Deposit + residents savings deposit + other deposit).

　　在传统金融环境下，货币的定义，无论是狭义还是广义，都是比较明确的。但是随着新金融的不断发展，货币的狭义和广义定义都面临一些问题。例如，传统金融下，狭义货币仅仅包括现金和活期存款，但随着新金融的发展，支票、信用卡的广泛使用等等对狭义货币的概念带来了调整。而对于广义货币而言，各个层次的货币的流动性上的差别已经不那么明显了。一些新型的金融产品的资金流动和金融产品有待于纳入央行的管理范围。

In the traditional financial environment,Definition of money,Whether special or general,Is the more clear.But with the development of new financial,Currency narrow sense and broad sense definition are all faced with some problems.Such as,The traditional financial,Narrow currency only including cash and demand deposits,But with the new financial development,check/The wide use of credit card and so on to the concept of narrow money brought adjustment.For the generalized currencies,All levels of monetary liquidity difference is not so obvious.Some new financial products of cash flow and financial product needs to be included in the scope of the bank management.

　　为应对这一局面，自我国1994年10月份正式向社会公布货币供应量统计之后，我国央行已经多次调整货币供应量的口径。例如，2001年6月将证券公司客户保证金计入M2。2002年年初将在中国的外资、合资金融机构的人民币存款业务分别纳入不同层次的货币供应量。最近的一次调整是2011年10月，将非存款类金融机构在存款类金融机构的存款和住房公积金存款纳入M2统计范围。

To cope with the situation,Since China in October 1994 officially released to the society after the money supply statistics,China central bank has repeatedly adjust money supply caliber.Such as,June 2001 securities companies will be included in the M2 deposit.At the beginning of 2002 in China's foreign investment/Joint venture financial institutions RMB deposit business respectively into different levels of money supply.A recent adjustment is in October 2011,Will not deposit financial institutions in the deposit financial institutions deposit and housing provident fund deposit into M2 statistical range.

　　但在新金融环境下，官方对货币供应量的调整脚步仍然落后。因为在新金融环境下，企业与居民投资渠道日渐丰富，如银行表外理财资金、境外金融机构在境内的存款等等，分流了企业与居民存款。按照现行的货币统计制度，信贷类理财产品等新金融产品不仅会对货币总量产生影响，也将使货币供应量内部结构发生相应变化。例如，部分活期存款（属于M1）转而流向信托存款（属于M2），直接导致货币流动性比例（M1/M2）减小。而如果理财产品收益率较高，还会使得M2 内部“储蓄存款”和“定期存款”转移至“信托存款”。这些都给传统的货币定义和层次划分造成影响，进而给货币信贷形势分析和流动性研判带来一些不利影响。

But in the new financial environment,The official in the money supply adjustment steps still lags behind.Because in the new financial environment,Enterprises and residents are increasing investment channels,Such as bank off-balance-sheet financing funds/Overseas financial institutions within the territory of the deposit, etc,Shunt the enterprises and residents' deposits.According to the current monetary statistics system,Credit class financial products and other new financial products will not only influence to monetary aggregates,Will also make money supply internal structure produces corresponding change.Such as,Part of the current account(Belongs to the M1)To flow to the trust account(Belong to M2),Led directly to the monetary liquidity ratios(M1 / M2)reduce.And if a higher rate of return on financial products,Also makes M2 internal"savings"and"deposit"Transferred to"Trust deposit".These are the traditional monetary definition and impact level division,And then to the currency credit situation analysis and liquidity judge brought some adverse effect.

　　金融创新削弱了货币供应量的可控性 Financial innovation weakened the controllability of money supply

　　货币供给量等于基础货币与货币乘数之积。新金融的发展使得基础货币难以控制，并且货币乘数也变得不稳定，因此导致我国货币供应量可控性变差。

Money supply is equal to the base currency and the monetary multiplier of the product.New financial development makes the base currency is difficult to control,And monetary multiplier also becomes unstable,Therefore lead to China's money supply controllability variation.

　　一般来说，货币当局能够完全控制基础货币，否则货币供应量目标根本无从谈起。但在新金融环境下，央行对基础货币的控制被削弱，这一削弱不仅仅体现在新金融的发展所带来的基础货币数量的可控性的削弱，更体现为基础货币需求或结构方面的控制性的削弱。

Generally speaking,Monetary authorities able to take full control of the monetary base,Otherwise the money supply target never talked about.But in the new financial environment,The central bank of base currency control have been weakened,This not only weaken the embodied in the new financial development brought about by the monetary base number of controllability weakens,More embodied in base currency demand or structure of the weakening of the control.

　　一方面，由于新金融的发展，商业银行的存款准备金受到冲击。部分新金融具有信用创造机制，使得存款准备金和现金不再是唯一的高能货币。另一方面，新金融的发展导致中央银行投放现金的途径和数量不断变化，现金需求量不再容易测度。总之，新金融的发展意味着货币供应量所依赖的基础货币可控性下降。如图1显示，我国基础货币的增速依然忽快忽慢，很不平稳。

On the one hand,Due to the development of new financial,Commercial bank deposit reserve impact.Part of the new financial has credit creation mechanism,Make deposit reserve and cash is no longer the only high energy currency.On the other hand,New financial development leads to the central bank on the cash way and quantity changes,Demand for cash is no longer easy to measure.In a word,New financial development means that depend on money supply base currency controllability decline.As shown in figure 1 shows,Our country's basic monetary growth still and fast and slow,Is not smooth.

　　而货币乘数由法定存款准备金率以及超额存款准备金率、通货—存款比率、非交易存款比率等决定。随着新金融的发展，影响货币乘数的通货-存款比例、非交易存款比率以及超额存款准备金率都变得不稳定，货币乘数复杂多变，从而在一定程度上脱离了中央银行的控制，降低了货币供应量这一中介目标的可控性。有学者甚至已经开始质疑“货币乘数是否还存在”。

And monetary multiplier by legal deposit reserve ratio and excess deposit reserve rate/Currency - deposit ratio/The transaction deposit ratio and decision.With the development of new financial,Monetary multiplier effect of currency - deposit ratio/The transaction deposit ratio and excess deposit reserve rate becomes unstable,Monetary multiplier complicated,In order to a certain extent from the central bank's control,Reduce the money supply the intermediary target controllability.Some scholars even begun to question"Monetary multiplier is still exist".

　　自从1994年我国开始公布货币供应量，并将其作为中介目标以来，货币供应量的目标值几乎从来没有实现过。以最近几年为例，央行年初制定的货币供应量增长目标一再偏离实际情况，政策调控目标无形之中形同虚设。比如，央行制定的2008年~2011年货币供应量M2增长目标分别16%、17%、17%、16%，但实际执行的结果分别为17.8%、27.7%、19.7%和13.6%。如此巨大幅度的偏差，说明我国货币供应量增长的可控性很低，政策调控效果很不理想。换言之，货币供应量作为政策调控目标已不再有效并失去了应有的政策意义。

Since 1994, our country begins by money supply,And the intermediate target as since,Money supply target value almost have never come true.In recent years as an example,The central bank set at the beginning of the money supply growth target deviates from the actual situation again and again,Policy control target aeriform in eroded.Such as,The central bank set in 2008 ~ 2011 M2 money supply growth target of 16% respectively/17%/17%/16%,But the actual implementation of the results is 17.8%/27.7%/19.7% and 13.6%.Such a great range of deviation,It is illustrated that China money supply growth controllability is very low,Policy control effect is not ideal.In other words,Money supply as the policy control target is no longer effective and lose their policy meaning.

　　金融创新削弱了货币供应量与最终政策目标的相关性 Financial innovation weaken the money supply and the final target correlation policy

　　新金融的发展使得货币供应量的运行规律发生变化，破坏了其与货币政策最终目标之间的相关性，使其变得较为松散和不稳定。

The development of new financial makes money supply schedule changes,The damage with the monetary policy of the relationship between the ultimate goal,To make it more loose and unstable.

　　由于货币乘数不稳定，中央银行即使能控制基础货币，也不一定能控制货币供给总量；由于货币需求不稳定，即使货币供应量达到中介指标的要求也不一定能实现稳定币值等最终目标，从而使货币供应量无法满足作为中介指标的“相关性”要求，无法成为有效的货币政策中介指标。

Due to the monetary multiplier is not stable,Even if the central bank to control monetary base,Also can not control the total amount of money supply;Due to the demand for money is not stable,Even if the money supply to the requirements of the intermediate indicator does not necessarily can realize stable currency and ultimate goal,So that the money supply as the intermediate indicator can't satisfy the"correlation"requirements,Can't be effective monetary policy intermediate indicators.

　　全球金融的电子化和网络化程度不断加深，金融产品的品种丰富多样，各金融资产之间转化更加快捷、便利，显著扩大了金融交易规模，在这种情况下，货币供应量的流向日趋分散，“脱媒”现象日益突出，对最终目标的影响力逐渐减弱，加大了中央银行通过调控货币供应量以实现特定货币政策最终目标的难度。

Global financial electronic and network deepening,Financial products rich variety,All financial assets transformation between more quickly/convenience,Significantly enlarged the scale of financial transactions,In this case,The flow of money supply is dispersed,"disintermediation"Increasingly prominent phenomenon,The ultimate goal of the influence of the weakened gradually,Increasing the central bank through the regulation of money supply in order to achieve a particular goal of monetary policy of the difficulty.

　　事实上，随着新金融的发展，各种证券化产品和衍生工具层出不穷，从而创造了大量的“广义流动性”。据估算，由各种衍生产品创造的流动性约占全球广义流动性的78%，为全球GDP总值的9.64倍；而广义货币M2仅占全球广义流动性的10%，为全球GDP总值的1.22倍。没有被纳入货币当局统计和控制之下的巨量广义流动性的存在说明传统定义的货币供应量与最终经济变量的联系必然弱化，失去了原有的作用。

In fact,With the development of new financial,All kinds of securitization products and derivatives emerge in endlessly,So as to create a lot of"Generalized liquidity".It is estimated,By all sorts of derivative products creating liquidity accounted for about 78% of the global generalized liquidity,For global GDP value of 9.64 times;And the M2 accounted for only 10% of global generalized liquidity,For global GDP value of 1.22 times.Not be included in the monetary authority statistics and under the control of huge amount of generalized liquidity that exist, the traditional definition of money supply and eventually economic variables contact will weaken,Lost the original function.

　　例如，长期以来中国的货币增长和CPI通胀之间总体保持着较好的同步关系，尤其是M1（6个月前）同比增速与CPI同比增速的变化趋势存在十分明显且稳定的关系，即6个月前的货币投放将在大约半年后对同比物价产生实质性的影响，这也是多年来各界预测物价走势的重要依据。但值得注意的是，最近几年，M1增速对CPI的增速的引领性显著下降（如图2所示）。例如，2010年下半年以来，在M1持续较快下行的情况下，CPI却仍持续上升，货币与通胀的同步关系出现趋势性的背离。进入2011年下半年以来，虽然CPI也开始下降，但下降速度仍落后于M1的下降速度。

Such as,For a long time China's monetary growth and CPI inflation remains generally between the good synchronization relationship,Especially the M1(Six months ago)Year-on-year growth and the change tendency of the CPI year-on-year growth there is very obvious and stable relationship,Namely of 6 months ago put money in about half a year after the price compared to produce substantial influence,This is also for many years the from all walks of life prediction is an important basis of price movements.But it is important to note that,In recent years,M1 CPI growth to the growth of the lead resistance significantly(As shown in figure 2 shows).Such as,Since the latter half of 2010,In the M1 continuous fast descending cases,CPI still continue to rise,Money and inflation in the deviation of synchronous relationship trend.In the 2011 years since the second half,Although the CPI also began to decline,But the rate of descent still lag far behind of M1 rate of descent.

　　构建多指标相协调的中介目标体系 Build many indicators of the coordination of intermediate target system

　　综合以上论述，新的金融工具、新的金融业态、新的金融机构等新金融的发展扰乱了传统的货币供应量的定义和统计，从而弱化了货币供应量这一中介目标的可测性。同时，新金融的发展扩大了货币供应的主体范围，货币乘数复杂多变，改变了货币供应量的运行规律，从而也弱化了货币供应量的可控性和相关性。货币政策当局应从以下几个方面采取应对举措。

Comprehensive discussion above,New financial tools/New financial formats/The new financial institutions, such as the development of new financial disturb the traditional definition of money supply and statistics,Thus weakening the money supply the intermediary target measurability.At the same time,The development of new financial expand the money supply scope of subject,Monetary multiplier complicated,Change the money supply operation rule,Thus weakening the money supply controllability and correlation.Monetary policy authorities from the following aspects to take measures to deal with.

　　一是加强调查统计，建立统一全面共享的金融业综合统计体系。及时准确的统计数据是科学宏观调控的现实基础。“获得数据、弄清机制”应该是深入研究和制定政策的前提条件。因此要完善货币供应量和社会融资规模等指标的统计口径。在已经编制银行业为主的货币概览和信贷收支表的基础上，应扩展至包含证券、保险以及其他新金融业态的较为完整的金融概览，扩大货币政策工具和中介目标的覆盖面。此外，由于新金融之间的业务分类越来越模糊，因此在分业监管的背景下，各个监管当局要在社会融资规模等金融统计、监测中加强合作，提高金融统计的标准化和一致性。

One is to strengthen investigation and statistics,Establish a unified comprehensive sharing financial comprehensive statistical system.Timely and accurate statistical data is science's macroeconomic regulation and control of realistic foundation."Data obtained/Clear mechanism"Should be further research and policy condition.So to improve monetary supply and social financing scale indexes, such as statistical caliber.In the banking industry has been compiled as an overview of monetary and credit on the basis of the balance sheet,Should be extended to include securities/Insurance and other new financial format of relatively complete financial planner,Expanding the monetary policy tools and intermediary target coverage.In addition,Due to the new financial business between fuzzy classification more and more,So in the background of the supervised respectively,Each regulators in social financing scale, financial statistics/Monitoring of strengthening the cooperation,Improve the financial statistical standardization and consistency.

　　二是建立货币供应量和社会融资规模、通胀等多指标相协调的中介目标体系。由于货币供应量这一中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性均已弱化，因此需要寻找其补充和替代中介目标，以满足金融调控面临新的环境和要求。在此背景下，人民银行于2011年第一季度首次公布社会融资规模，这是一种探索和创新，适合我国融资结构的变化，符合金融宏观调控的市场化方向，但由于很多统计项目数据还没有公布等问题，市场还很难对其给予足够的预期和重视，因此需要进一步的完善和推广。与货币供应量和新增人民币贷款相比，社会融资规模与主要经济指标相互关系更紧密。应该成为央行监测、调控的重要的中介目标。此外，通胀、汇率、货币市场利率等也应该成为重要的货币政策中介参考目标。当然，只要商业银行在金融业中仍居于主导地位，货币供应量仍将应作为货币当局重要的中介目标之一。

The second is to establish monetary supply and social financing scale/Inflation, etc in harmony index intermediate target system.Due to the money supply the intermediary target measurability/Controllability and correlation are weakening,Therefore need to find its complementary and alternative intermediate target,In order to meet the financial control is facing a new environment and requirements.In this context,The people's bank in the first quarter of 2011 published the first social financing scale,This is a kind of exploration and innovation,Suitable for China's financing structure changes,With the marketization of finance macro-control direction,But because a lot of statistics project data has not announced problems,The market is still hard to give enough attention and expected,Therefore need further improvement and promotion.And the money supply and new RMB loan compared,Social financing scale and main economic indicators closer relationship.The central bank should be monitoring/Regulation of the important intermediate target.In addition,inflation/rate/Money market interest rates should also become important monetary policy intermediate reference target.Of course,As long as the commercial Banks in the financial industry still predominates,Money supply will still be as monetary authorities of one of the important intermediate target.

　　三是央行要加强与其他金融机构的合作。以上的分析表明，央行的货币总量控制能力减弱，货币供给内生性增强。根本原因在于狭义货币乘数论的失效，即中国人民银行的货币政策措施不再能从源头上直接影响信贷传导机制， 提高存款准备金率等“巨斧型” 政策的效果变得有限。目前，在中国，银行监管部门比央行更能直接控制商业银行的放贷行为和货币创造能力，更能直接影响银行信贷传导机制。因此，央行只有与银行监管等部门协调配合，货币政策执行效果才能如其所愿。而银行监管部门也只有与中央银行紧密配合才能减少政策间的抵消和摩擦，使总体的宏观经济政策效果保持一致。

The third is to strengthen the central bank and other financial institutions of cooperation.The above analysis shows that,The central bank's monetary aggregates control ability weakened,Money supply endogeneity enhancement.Basic reason is that the narrow money by the failure of number theory,The people's bank of China monetary policy measures can no longer from the source directly influence the credit transmission mechanism, Improve the deposit reserve rate, etc"Axe type" The effect of the policy become limited.At present,In China,Bank regulators more than the central bank can directly control the commercial bank lending behavior and money creation ability,More can directly influence the bank credit transmission mechanism.so,The central bank only and bank supervision departments coordination,Monetary policy implementation effect of the wish to.And bank regulators also only work closely with the central bank to reduce the offset between the policy and friction,Make overall macroeconomic policies consistent effect.

　　（作者为上海新金融研究院研究员）

(The author is Shanghai new financial institute researchers)