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融资结构大异变--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-12-12

  11月,社会融资规模比上年同期多1837亿元,其中人民币贷款同比少增400亿元。这两个金融统计数据将中国社会融资结构的异变勾勒得淋漓尽致。

November,Social financing scale than the same period last year more than 183.7 billion yuan,The year-on-year increase RMB loans less 40 billion yuan.The two financial statistics data will be China's social financing structure variation of the outline of incisively and vividly.

  12月11日,人民银行公布的统计数据显示,11月,人民币贷款增加5229亿元,同比少增400亿元。尽管如此,11月份的社会融资规模却并不低,其规模达到1.14万亿元,比上年同期还多1837亿元。

On December 11,,Published by the people's bank of statistical data display,November,RMB loan an increase of 522.9 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase 40 billion yuan less.Even so,November's social financing scale is not low,The scale up to 1.14 trillion yuan,Than the same period last year more than 183.7 billion yuan.

  若在以往,银行贷款的多寡决定了社会融资规模的多少,两者数据常常同步运行。但11月的金融统计数据显示了贷款的重要性日益降低,而这两个数据的不同步也或将是长期现象。

If in the past,The amount of bank loans determines how much social financing scale,Both data often synchronous operation.But on November financial statistics show the importance of the loan is lower,And the two data of synchronization is or will be long-term phenomenon.

  而造成11月两个数据不同步的原因,主要出在信托贷款、委托贷款等银行表外业务,以及外币贷款身上。统计显示,11月份,委托贷款增加1218亿元,同比多增623亿元。信托贷款更是增加1995亿元,同比多增1279亿元。仅委托贷款、信托贷款这两者合计11月份就同比多增加了1902亿元。

By November two data synchronization reasons,Mainly in the trust loans/Entrust loans and bank's off-balance sheet business,And foreign currency loan body.Statistics show that,November,Entrust loan an increase of 121.8 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 62.3 billion yuan.Trust loans is an increase of 199.5 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 127.9 billion yuan.Only entrust loan/Trust the loans together November year-on-year increase 190.2 billion yuan.

  “人民币贷款数据不好,但社会融资规模还可以,融资结构大异变还在持续发生。”中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘元春在接受《第一财经日报》采访时表示,信托贷款大规模增长,一个重要的原因可能是年底的因素。比方说,年底很多房地产企业债务到期,就通过一些短期信托贷款倒腾资金,实现借新还旧。

"RMB loan data is bad,But social financing scale can also,Financing structure big variation continues to happen."Chinese people's university school of economics, vice President of the LiuYuanChun in accepting[The first financial daily]Interviews that,Trust loan large-scale growth,An important reason might be the end of factors.For instance,The end of the year a lot of real estate enterprise debt maturity,Through some short-term trust loan funds pour a teng,Realize borrow new is old.

  平安证券固定收益部副总经理石磊则表示“信贷数据已经失真”,银行通过委托贷款、信托贷款这两个表外渠道融出了资金。

Peace fixed income securities, said deputy general manager shi lei"Credit data have distortion",The bank through the entrust loan/Trust loans the two off-balance sheet channel RongChu capital.

  早在10年前的2002年,新增贷款占社会融资规模比重还常常高达百分之七八十,而现在已经跌至50%以下。从2011年下半年,特别是2012年以来,随着银行表外融资以及债券融资的增长,人民币贷款数据已经难以全面反映出金融体系向实体经济的融资情况。

As early as ten years ago in 2002,New loans accounted for the proportion of social financing scale is often as high as of the,And now has fallen below 50%.From the second half of 2011,Especially since 2012,Along with the bank off-balance-sheet financing and bond financing growth,RMB loan data has been difficult to fully reflect the financial system to the entity economy financing situation.

  在信托贷款、委托贷款激增的同时,外币贷款在10月、11月亦开始激增。统计显示,11月,外币贷款折合人民币增加1048亿元,同比多增999亿元。与此同时,11月外币存款却减少了19亿美元。

In the trust loans/Entrust loan surge at the same time,Foreign currency loan in October/November also began to surge.Statistics show that,November,Foreign currency loans converted into renminbi in an increase of 104.8 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 99.9 billion yuan.meanwhile,November foreign currency deposit but fell by $1.9 billion.

  刘元春称,外币贷款的增加与近几个月来人民币升值、资金流动逆转有关系。在人民币升值区间之内,企业倾向于借外币,降低财务成本。

LiuYuanChun says,The increase of foreign currency loans with in the past few months the appreciation of the renminbi/There is a relationship between cash flow reversal.In the appreciation of the RMB within the interval,Enterprises tend to borrow foreign currency,Reduce financial cost.

  中国银行(601988,股吧)国际金融研究所高级分析师温彬表示,9月份以后,人民币升值预期再次出现,一些企业转为申请外币贷款。

The bank of China(601988,guba)International finance, senior analyst WenBin said,After September,The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to appear again,Some enterprise to apply for foreign currency loans.

  统计显示,其他的融资渠道方面,11月,未贴现的银行承兑汇票减少496亿元,同比多减269亿元;企业债券净融资1817亿元,同比少260亿元;非金融企业境内股票融资107亿元,同比少161亿元。

Statistics show that,Other financing channels,November,Not discount bank acceptance draft a decrease of 49.6 billion yuan,More than 26.9 billion yuan year-on-year reduction;Net enterprise bond financing is 181.7 billion yuan,Less compared to 26 billion yuan;Non-financial enterprises in China stock financing is 10.7 billion yuan,Less compared to 16.1 billion yuan.

  从今年前11个月的总量上来看,新增社会融资规模为14.15万亿元,比上年同期多2.6万亿元。若不出意外,2012年全年新增社会融资规模将超过15万亿元。

11 months from years ago the amount of point of view,New social financing scale for 14.15 trillion yuan,Than the same period last year more than 2.6 trillion yuan.If no accident,In 2012, the new social financing scale will be more than 15 trillion yuan.



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