连平

Even flat

　　2012年6月以来，中国人民银行在间隔不到一个月的时间内，连续两次宣布调整商业银行存贷款基准利率。同时，金融机构贷款基准利率浮动区间下限扩大，存款基准利率开始允许上浮，标志着我国利率市场化改革进入了实质性攻坚阶段。

Since June 2012,The people's bank of China in the interval less than a month time,Two successive announced that adjust the benchmark interest rates for commercial Banks.At the same time,Financial institutions the benchmark lending interest rate lower limit to expand the range of floating,Benchmark deposit interest rates began to allow separation,Marked the our country interest rate marketization reform into the substantive stage of storming fortifications.

　　2012年也是上海国际金融中心建设全面起航的一年。2012年1月，国家发改委公布了《“十二五”时期上海国际金融中心建设规划》（下称《规划》），清晰勾勒出“十二五”时期上海国际金融中心建设的发展目标，力争到2015年基本确立上海的全球性人民币产品创新、交易、定价和清算中心地位，为到2020年把上海建成与我国经济实力及人民币国际地位相适应的国际金融中心打下坚实基础。

In 2012 Shanghai international financial center construction is a comprehensive set sail.In January 2012,The national development and reform commission announced["1025"Period of Shanghai international financial center construction planning](Hereinafter referred to as[planning]),Clear outline"1025"Shanghai international financial center construction period of development goals,Strive to establish basic 2015 Shanghai global RMB product innovation/trading/Pricing and clearing center position,As to the 2020 in Shanghai and China's economic strength and international status of the renminbi to adapt international financial center to lay a solid foundation.

　　因此，上海金融业应以积极开放的心态迎接利率市场化时代的到来，化挑战为机遇，不失时机地推动金融市场的深化与融合，促进金融机构的经营转型，加快金融产品和服务的创新，将上海国际金融中心建设推向一个新的高度。

so,Shanghai's financial industry should take positive and open attitude to meet the arrival of the era of interest rate marketization,Turn challenges into opportunities,Lose no time to promote the deepening of financial market and the fusion,Promote the financial institutions business transformation,To speed up the innovation of financial products and services,The Shanghai international financial center construction to a new height.

　　一、利率市场化将进一步提升上海国际金融中心的地位

a/Interest rate marketization will further improve the Shanghai international financial center position

　　2012年《规划》进一步明确提出，要在2015年让“上海银行间同业拆借利率成为境内外人民币资产定价的主要基准利率”，意味着SHIBOR原先只在银行同业间被认可的地位将以国家战略的形式得到正式确认。

In 2012,[planning]Further put forward,In 2015 made"Shanghai interbank loan interest rates and become the main asset pricing benchmark interest rate",Means SHIBOR originally only in between Banks approved status will be in the form of national strategy to get official recognition.

　　不过，上海国际金融中心地位的提升，归根到底仍主要取决于上海金融市场的深入发展和金融机构的整体繁荣。我国利率市场化改革的加速推进，将为上海国际金融中心建设带来一系列实实在在的发展新机遇：

but,Shanghai international financial center position of ascension,In the final analysis is still mainly depends on the development of Shanghai's financial market and financial institutions of the overall prosperity.Our country interest rate marketization reform accelerates,For the Shanghai international financial center construction, bring a series of the development of new opportunities:

　　一是有利于拓展上海金融市场的广度、深度和国际化程度。各类金融市场的规模将进一步做大，形成一个更加完整齐备的上海金融市场体系，加快国际金融中心建设步伐；同时，利率市场化有利于汇率形成机制改革、资本项目开放的推进，使得上海国际金融中心的全球性金融资源集聚和辐射带动能力将得到增强，国际化程度将得以实质性提升。

One is to develop the Shanghai financial market breadth/Depth and degree of internationalization.All kinds of financial market scale will further,To form a more complete complete financial market system in Shanghai,To speed up the pace of international financial center construction;At the same time,Interest rate marketization is helpful to exchange rate formation mechanism reform/Capital project open propulsion,Shanghai international financial center that global financial resources concentration and radiation drive ability will be enhanced,The degree of internationalization of ascension will be substantial.

　　二是有利于促进上海金融业的产品创新。在利率市场化推进的过程中，出于逐步推进金融改革、优化政策传导机制的需要，以及金融机构调整业务结构、有效管理风险和满足客户需求的考虑，与利率相关的金融产品创新的速度会进一步加快、种类更加丰富。此外，作为我国金融市场种类最为齐全、发展基础最好和SHIBOR生成地的上海，还将获得更多“先行先试”的金融创新机会。

The second is to promote Shanghai financial product innovation.In the process of marketization of interest rate and promoting,Out of step by step to promote financial reform/Optimization policy transmission mechanism needs,Financial institutions and business structure adjustment/Effective management risk and meet customer needs consideration,And interest related financial products innovation speed will further accelerate the speed/Species more rich.In addition,As our country's financial market, the complete and most species/The best development foundation and SHIBOR generation to Shanghai,Will gain more"First try first"Financial innovation opportunity.

　　三是有利于激励和推动上海金融机构经营转型，提升竞争力。上海各类金融机构将获得更多的综合经营试点、产品创新试点和国际化发展的机遇，从而有利于提升上海金融机构的跨境、跨业金融服务能力和金融创新能力。

The third is to motivate and encourage financial institutions in Shanghai business transformation,Enhance competitiveness.All kinds of financial institutions will obtain more comprehensive management pilot/Product innovation pilot and internationalization development opportunities,Thus to improve cross-border financial institutions in Shanghai/Combination of financial service ability and financial innovation ability.

　　二、利率市场化将拓展上海金融市场的广度、深度和开放度

two/Interest rate marketization will develop Shanghai financial market breadth/Depth and degree of openness

　　近年来，上海各类金融市场以较快速度增长。可以说，一个由证券市场、银行间同业拆借市场、外汇市场、期货市场、黄金市场、产权市场等构成的较为健全的全国性金融市场体系已在上海基本形成。

In recent years,All kinds of financial market to faster growth.Can say,The securities market/The interbank lending market/Foreign exchange market/Futures market/Gold market/Property market is a sound national financial market system has been basically formed in Shanghai.

　　然而，受市场机制不完善、创新能力不强、开放度不够等因素制约，上海金融市场的发展现状与《规划》的要求相比，还存在不小的距离，特别是金融市场配置资金的效率有待进一步增强。这些问题必须通过金融市场的不断深化与相互融合加以解决。而当前的利率市场化改革恰好提供了这么一个契机：它有助于拓展上海金融市场的广度、深度和国际化程度，以形成一个比较发达的多功能、多层次的上海金融市场体系。利率市场化对上海金融市场发展的积极意义具体涉及以下几个方面：

however,By the market mechanism is not perfect/Innovation ability is not strong/Openness is not enough, etc factors,Shanghai financial market development present situation and[planning]Compared to the requirements of the,There are a lot of distance,Especially financial market allocation efficiency of the capital to be further enhanced.These problems must be through the financial market integration deepening and solved.And the current interest rate marketization reform just provides such a chance:It helps to develop Shanghai financial market breadth/Depth and degree of internationalization,In order to form a more developed multi-functional/Multi-level Shanghai financial market system.Interest rate marketization of Shanghai financial market development of the positive significance in the following respects:

　　其一，促进上海债券市场迅速成长。从长期来看，利率市场化将推动债券收益率走高，也将增强债券投资对金融机构的吸引力。从债券供给来看，对利率债而言，公开市场操作要替代利率管制的政策效果，必须要求产品的规模和期限足够丰富；对信用债而言，大企业由于信用资质优良，通过债券融资可以获得更低廉的成本；利率市场化进程的展开以及由此带来的金融创新，也将给中小企业带来日益丰富的融资方式选择。此外，利率市场化将给债券市场带来创新动力(310328,基金吧)，债券的远期、期货、互换等交易方式，以及与债券相关的信用衍生品都将面临发展良机。

one,To promote the rapid growth of the bond market in Shanghai.In the long run,Interest rate marketization will push bond yields go high,Will also strengthen bonds investment attraction to financial institutions.From the bond supply to see,Interest rate for debt,Open market operations to replace control of interest rate policy effect,Must demand the product size and period rich enough;As for the credit debt,Due to the big enterprise credit good qualification,Through the bond financing can obtain more low cost;Interest rate marketization process which has carried out and financial innovation,Will also to small and medium-sized enterprise to bring the increasingly rich financing mode selection.In addition,Interest rate marketization will give bond market with innovative power(310328,Fund it),Bond forward/futures/Swap transactions, etc,And bond related credit derivatives will be facing development opportunities.

　　同样，一个日趋成熟的债券市场反过来也有助于利率市场化改革稳步推进。一方面，债券市场能带动完善整个金融市场的利率结构。债券市场丰富的产品期限使得资金可在长、短期债券市场，资本市场和货币市场之间自由流动，从而有助于完善其他市场的利率结构。另一方面，债券市场也是完善利率传导机制不可或缺的环节。目前，中央银行的公开市场操作、央行票据的发行和流通、绝大部分国债的发行主要依托于债券场外市场进行，债券市场的发展为货币政策执行提供了有效渠道。

The same,A mature bond market, in turn, can also help a market-oriented interest rate reform steadily.On the one hand,The bond market will become a perfect the financial market interest rate structure.The bond market rich products period make money in the long/Short-term bond market,Capital market and money market between free flow,So as to help improve other market interest rate structure.On the other hand,The bond market interest rate transmission mechanism is also perfect indispensable link.At present,The central bank open market operations/The central bank note issuance and circulation/Most of the national debt issuance of bonds mainly depends on otc market,The development of the bond market for monetary policy implementation provides effective channels.

　　其二，增强投资者对于上海股票市场的信心。利率市场化使得扭曲的利率价格体系在一定程度上得到矫正，让企业以更低的成本获取银行信贷支持，从而有助于改善上市公司的整体业绩表现；而这将有利于提振投资者的信心，推动上海股票市场整体向好。

The second,Enhance investor confidence in the Shanghai stock market.Interest rate marketization of interest rate distortion that price system in a certain degree to get correct,Let enterprises with lower cost for bank credit support,Which help to improve company's overall performance;And this will be conducive to boost investor confidence,Promote the Shanghai stock market as a whole better off.

　　其三，丰富上海期货市场、金融期货市场和上海清算所的交易品种。我国利率市场化改革的推进，也将为国债期货、以SHIBOR为基础的远期利率协议、利率期货、利率期权和利率上下限、利率互换衍生品等业务的相继推出提供重要基础。这些利率和相关金融期货业务的发展将丰富和完善利率市场风险的分散和处置途径，为微观金融主体提供了规避利率风险的工具，引导各类机构投资者积极参与到上海期货市场和金融期货市场中来。

thirdly,Rich Shanghai futures market/Financial futures market and Shanghai clearing house trading varieties.Our country interest rate marketization reform,Will also be Treasury futures/On the basis of SHIBOR forward rate agreement/Interest rate futures/Interest rate options and interest rate lower limit/Interest rate swap derivatives business launched to provide important basis.These rates and related financial futures business development will enrich and perfect the interest rate market risk dispersion and disposal way,For micro finance main body provides avoid interest rate risk tool,Guide all kinds of institutional investor actively participate in the Shanghai futures market and financial futures market to.

　　其四，支持货币市场和外汇市场加快发展。利率市场化的一个主要作用是收窄本外币利差，从而削弱了以套利美元为代表的“热钱”对我国外汇市场的负面影响。从长期来看，这有助于上海深化人民币外汇市场，推动境内银行与境外银行通过银行间外汇市场开展人民币远期购售交易，以及银行间外汇市场开展人民币对新兴经济体货币交易。

its,Support the money market and foreign exchange market to speed up the development.Interest rate marketization of a main function is narrow local interest margin,So as to weaken the dollar as a representative of arbitrage"Hot money"China's foreign exchange market to the negative impact.In the long run,This will help Shanghai deepening RMB exchange market,To promote domestic Banks and foreign Banks through the interbank foreign exchange market conduct the renminbi forward 购售 trading,And the inter-bank foreign exchange market to emerging economies in renminbi currency trading.

　　其五，有助于扩大SHIBOR的影响。在利率市场化的过程中，SHIBOR的基准利率地位将进一步增强。未来将以SHIBOR为纽带，加快实现间接融资和直接融资等金融市场之间价格的互联互通，更多以SHIBOR为基准的浮息产品有望推出，SHIBOR对资金价格的引导作用将得到进一步发挥。

five,Can help to enlarge the influence of SHIBOR.In the process of interest rate marketization,The benchmark interest rate SHIBOR status will be further enhanced.The future will be SHIBOR as the link,The realization of the indirect financing and direct financing and financial market price of interconnection and interflow between,More to SHIBOR for reference of the floating rate products is expected to launch,SHIBOR for capital price guidance will further play.

　　（作者系交通银行(601328,股吧)首席经济学家）

(The author is bank of communications(601328,guba)Chief economist)