全球经济同处变局、乱局和迷局之中，尽管系统性风险已经逐步释放，但主权债务危机的尾部风险还在暴露，未来全球金融运行将呈现三大趋势：

The global economy with the change/Mess and fan innings,Although systemic risk has been gradually release,But the end of the sovereign debt crisis risk in exposure,Future global financial operation will present 3 big trends:

　　一、央行“异化”推动长期低利率和债务货币化趋势

a/The central bank"alienation"Promote long-term interest rates low and debt monetization trend

　　12月13日，美联储年内最后一次议息会议扔下一枚重磅炸弹，美联储宣布扩大资产购买规模450亿美元，推出第四轮量化宽松(QE4)，每月采购450亿美元国债替代扭曲操作(OT)，加上QE3时期美联储每月资产采购量共计达到850亿美元，美联储已经患上了严重的“QE依赖症”。

On December 13,In the last discussion meeting a gold dropped interest blockbuster,The federal reserve announced expand assets to buy $45 billion,Out of the first round quantitative easing(QE4),Monthly purchasing $45 billion national debt alternative distortion operation(OT),And the federal reserve assets QE3 period monthly purchase quantity a total of $85 billion,The fed has already suffering from a serious"QE dependence".

　　事实上，美联储无休止的量化宽松正是发达国家央行的缩影。2008年之后欧美主要央行的逻辑，是央行与财政关系的重新定义，这种重新定义实际上让中央银行走上了一条“去独立性”之路。观察美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行以及英国央行的量化宽松或准量化宽松政策，其货币政策目标已经清晰地变为，竭力维持岌岌可危的政府债务循环。

In fact,The fed the endless quantitative easing is the epitome of central Banks in developed countries.2008 years after the main central Banks in Europe and America the logic,Is the central bank and the financial relationship to redefine,This redefine actually let the central bank on the path to a"To independence"road.Observation the fed/The European central bank/Japan's central bank and the bank of England's quantitative easing or quasi quantitative easing policy,Its monetary policy goals have been clearly into,Eke out at risk of government debt cycle.

　　首先，量化宽松的本质是债务货币化。从全球角度来看，政府债务占（国内生产总值）GDP比例已经上升到几十年以来最高水平：全球原来拥有AAA主权评级的包括美国在内的所谓“安全政府”都相继失去AAA评级，当前在最高主权评级阵营的发达国家为数寥寥。随着2012财年美国财政赤字连续4年超过万亿大关，美国联邦政府债务已经飙升至16万亿美元。近10年来，美国债务总规模由5.3万亿增长至16万亿美元，翻了3倍。如果以目前每天增加35亿美元新债的速度增长，美国政府的债务总额将会在2015年突破20万亿大关。

First of all,Quantitative easing is the nature of the debt.From a global perspective,Government debt accounted for(GDP)Proportion of GDP has risen to the highest level in decades:Global originally have AAA sovereign rating, including the United States, the so-called"Security government"All have lost AAA rating,The current at the highest sovereign rating camp a very developed countries.Along with the fiscal year 2012 the federal deficit four consecutive years more than trillions of mark,The federal government debt has reached $16 trillion.Nearly ten years,The United States debt total scale grew to $16 trillion by 5.3 trillion,More than tripled.If every day to present a new $3.5 billion debt increases the speed of growth,The U.S. government's total debt will hit the 20 trillion mark in 2015.

　　欧盟委员会最新数据显示，2011年欧元区债务比率达到87.3%，创下历史新高，人均债务已达3.77万欧元。爱尔兰、意大利和希腊的适龄劳动者人均债务处于欧元区最高水平，分别为5.5万欧元、4.8万欧元和4.7万欧元。法国与德国的这类人均债务虽然比上述三国低，但也分别高达4万欧元和3.9万欧元，都高于3.77万欧元的欧洲平均水平。

The European commission the latest data show,In 2011 the euro zone debt ratio reached 87.3%,Hitting record highs,Per capita debt has amounted to 37700 euros.Ireland/Italy and Greece debt in the euro area per capita of school-age laborer the highest level,Respectively for 55000 euros/48000 euros and 47000 euros.France and Germany this kind of debt although per capita than the above three low,But also were as high as 40000 euros ($) and 39000 euros,Are higher than the European average of 37700 euros.

　　再看日本，无论是债务总额与GDP之比、财政赤字与GDP之比，还是国债依存度，目前日本都是世界发达国家中最差的国家之一。数据显示，截至2011年底，包括国债、借款和政府短期证券在内的日本国家债务总额共计919.1511万亿日元，创历史最高纪录达到GDP的两倍。以人口计算，平均每个日本人负担721.6万日元。

Look at Japan,Whether the total liabilities and the ratio of GDP/The financial deficit and the ratio of GDP,Or national debt dependence,Japan is the world developed countries in one of the worst.Data display,By the end of 2011,Including national debt/Borrowing and government short-term securities, the Japan national debt of total 919.1511 trillion yen,The all-time record high GDP reached two times.In the calculation,The average Japanese burden 7.216 million yen.

　　发达国家普遍通过长期低利率或量化宽松等方式来减轻债务负担，从而走上了债务货币化的道路。但央行异化趋势会带来三大问题：一是长期极度宽松的货币环境掩盖了潜在的资产负债表问题，由于极度宽松的货币政策使以美国为代表的主权债务成本处于历史低位，新发债务的利息成本较低，这减弱了政府进行财政整顿和结构性改革的意愿，财政可持续问题的解决被延误，影响长期宏观经济和金融的稳定。

The developed countries through the long-term low interest rates or quantitative easing, and other ways to reduce the debt burden,Thus on the debt monetization road.But the central bank alienation trend will bring three problems:One is the long-term extremely loose monetary conditions covered up the potential balance sheet problem,Due to the extremely loose monetary policy made in the United States as a representative of sovereign debt cost at historic lows,New hair debt interest cost is low,This reduces government financial reorganization and structural reform will,Financial sustainable to the solution of the problem be delayed,Affect long-term macroeconomic and financial stability.

　　二是长期极度宽松货币政策可能会扭曲金融市场价格体系。长期国债收益率是经济决策的重要参考指标，人为降低长期利率和金融市场风险价差的大规模国债购买扭曲市场信号，导致资源错配。

The second is long-term extremely loose monetary policy may distort financial market price system.Long-term bond yields is an important reference index of economic decision-making,Human reduce long-term interest rates and financial market price risk of large-scale national debt purchase market signal distortion,Lead to resources mismatch.

　　三是债务货币化大大稀释债权人利益，导致东西长期财富分配失衡。截至2011年底，发展中国家储备资产达7万亿美元，这些储备大多数以美国国债或其他低收益主权债券的形式投资，等于为发达国家进行债务融资，长期债务货币化势必严重侵蚀债权人资产和金融权益。

The third is debt monetization greatly dilution creditors' interests,What led to long-term wealth distribution imbalance.By the end of 2011,Developing countries reserve assets amounted to $7 trillion,These reserves most U.S. debt or other low income in the form of sovereign bond investment,For developed countries is equal to the debt financing,Long-term debt monetization will be serious erosion creditor assets and financial interests.

　　二、国际短期资本流动与长期资本流动分化趋势

two/International short-term capital flows and long-term capital flows differentiation trend

　　2008年全球金融危机以来，国际资本流动模式显著变化，不仅有周期性因素、还有结构性因素和扰动因素。当前，发达国家再度联手量化宽松的溢出效应开始逐步显现，新兴经济体持续近一年的短期资本流出转变为新一轮短期资本流入。事实上，在美国国内债券收益率走低、股市提前透支第二轮量化宽松政策利好、实体经济复苏缓慢等形势下，未来，大部分货币资金受利益驱动，可能流向投资收益较高的大宗商品市场及新兴市场国家，但由于发达国家主权债务危机旷日持久、全球经济再平衡进程加快推进，以及新兴市场资本回报率的降低等因素，新兴经济体的长期产业资本大规模净流入的局面正在面临拐点。

2008 years since the global financial crisis,The international capital flow mode significant change,Not only has cyclical factors/There are structural factors and disturbance factors.The current,The developed countries to quantitative easing again the spillover effect began to gradually appear,Emerging economies for almost a year of short term capital flow into a new round of short-term capital inflows.In fact,In the United States bond yields low/The stock market early overdraw the second round of quantitative easing policy bullish/The entity economic recovery is slow and situation,The future,Most of the monetary fund benefit drive by,May to investment income is higher commodity market and emerging market countries,But due to the developed countries long sovereign debt crisis/The global economy to accelerate the process of balance,And emerging market return on capital reduction factors,Emerging economies' long-term industrial capital large-scale net inflow situation are facing inflection point.

　　从中长期看，影响国际资本流动的主要因素正在发生趋势性改变，以往经济全球化中的过度消费、过度借贷、过度福利、过度出口的失衡关系正在被打破：发达国家主权债务危机正在开启一场旷日持久的“去杠杆化”进程，这会导致海外资本的持续回流，而作为资本输出大国的美国正在加速推进“再工业化”战略，促进产业资本回流重组全球产业链，全球资本大规模流向新兴经济体的趋势可能正在悄然发生改变，短期资本与长期资本分化的趋势可能成为常态。

From the long run,Influence of the main factors of international capital flow is happening trend change,In the past the excessive consumption of economic globalization/Excessive lending/Excessive welfare/Excessive export imbalance relationship is being broken:The developed countries sovereignty debt crisis are opening a long"de-leveraging"process,This will lead to overseas capital for return,As a capital output power of the United States is accelerating"To industrialization"strategy,Promote industrial capital return restructuring global industrial chain,Global capital flow to the trend of the large emerging economies may be quietly changed,Short-term capital and long-term capital differentiation trend may become normal.

　　三、全球金融市场震荡将呈现“钝化”趋势

three/The global financial market shocks will present"passivation"trend

　　2013年市场的风险程度相比2012年有所下降，不确定性相对减少。欧债危机初露曙光，随着欧盟永久性援助基金——欧洲稳定机制（ESM）的正式启动，欧洲主权债券市场最坏的时期可能已经过去。ESM可以看作是欧洲统一财政部的雏形，它通过对欧元区各国的财政约束，实现债权国对债务国的财政转移支付，从而达到救助债务国的目的。我们认为，欧洲推进银行和财政联盟是向正确方向迈进，但分歧和坎坷仍多，欧元区核心区域和外围区的经济将继续分化，增长仍然会相当疲弱。由于短期内风险偏好难以根本性逆转，美联储投放的超额货币供给可能不及市场对美元的需求量大，美元保持相对阶段性强势是大概率事件，新兴市场货币兑美元升值空间有限。

In 2013, the risk of the market compared to the degree of decline in 2012,Relative to reduce uncertainty.The debt crisis dawn dew,As the permanent aid fund - the European stability mechanism(ESM)Initiated the,European sovereign bond market the worst of times may have in the past.ESM can be regarded as the prototype of the European unification ministry of finance,It through to the eurozone countries financial constraints,To realize the debtor and creditor financial transfer payment,So as to achieve the purpose of salvage debtor.We think,European propulsion Banks and financial alliance is in the right direction,But differences and difficulties still more,The eurozone core area and peripheral area of the economy will continue to differentiation,Growth will still quite weak.Due to the short term risk preference to fundamental reversal,The fed on the extra money supply may be less than market against the us dollar is high,Dollar remained relatively strong stage is big probability event,Emerging market currencies against the us dollar space is limited.

　　此外，各国经济复苏的差异性、不同国家宏观政策溢出作用，以及资本流向的改变都会给全球金融市场带来新的调整和动荡。展望2013年，尽管短期风险可能不断，但大的系统性风险已开始逐步释放，全球金融市场震荡的程度相比2011和2012年，将呈现出“钝化”趋势。

In addition,All the differences of economic recovery/Different national macro policy spillover effect,And capital flow change will give the global financial market turmoil and bring new adjustment.In 2013,Although the short-term risk may continuously,But the systemic risk has begun to gradually release,The global financial market shocks compared to the degree of 2011 and 2012,Will show the"passivation"trend.

　　（作者系国家信息中心预测部副研究员）

(The author is deputy researcher at the state information center forecast)