本报记者 陈莹莹

Our reporter ChenYingYing

　　欧债危机的解决好不容易初现曙光，但意大利大选的不确定性使得欧洲央行此前营造的相对平静局面再次面临考验。耶鲁大学终身教授陈志武认为，过去几个月，欧洲金融市场已经稳定许多，但未来欧元区经济复苏的过程仍要持续几年，并需更多实质性改革。

The debt crisis not easy to solve early dawn,But Italy election uncertainty makes the European central bank had to build the relative calm of the situation facing the test again.Yale university lifetime professor ChenZhiWu think,In the past few months,The European financial markets have been stable many,But the future of the eurozone's economic recovery process is still to last for several years,And need more substantive reform.

　　陈志武直言，未来欧元区刺激经济复苏的一系列政策调整，可能会带来许多结构性问题以及道德风险问题，并且可能让不负责任的成员国不仅难以受到惩罚反而轻易得到救助。另外，还可能让欧元区通胀前景大大增加。

ChenZhiWu the truth,The eurozone stimulate economic recovery of a series of policy adjustment,May cause many structural problems and moral hazard problem,And may make irresponsible members not only difficult to punished help easily instead.In addition,May let the eurozone inflation outlook greatly increased.

　　欧债危机能否彻底解决，是困扰欧元区经济复苏的最关键因素。陈志武认为，目前欧元区国家面对“三高”挑战：高国债、高财政赤字、高税负。欧债危机不只是一个经济问题，也是一个政治问题，是在民主制度下，福利国家政策及“大政府主义”带来的根本性挑战。

The debt crisis can be completely resolved,The eurozone's economic recovery is the problem of the most key factors.ChenZhiWu think,At present the eurozone countries face"Three tenors"challenge:High national debt/High fiscal deficit/High tax.The debt crisis is not only an economic problem,Is also a political question,Is in a democratic system,The welfare state policy and"Big government socialist"Bring the fundamental challenge.

　　“彻底解决欧债危机的办法有，但是每个解决方案都会面对强大的政治阻力和社会阻力。这就需要利益各方长时间博弈、慢慢让步、妥协牺牲。”他称，如果欧元区国家税负不到其GDP的41%，那么他们可通过增税来解决高国债、高赤字问题；如果欧元区经济能够快速增长，那么也有助于降低国债和赤字。但现实情况是，增税没空间，经济强力增长无指望，那就只能依靠缩减政府开支。

"Completely solve the debt crisis can be,But every solution will face strong political resistance and social resistance.This needs interest parties long time game/Slowly concessions/Compromise sacrifice."He says,If the eurozone countries the tax less than 41% of GDP,So they can through the tax increases to solve high national debt/High deficit problem;If the eurozone economy can rapid growth,It also helps to reduce the national debt and deficit.But the reality is that,Tax increases no space,Economic strength growth without hope,That can only rely on cut government spending.

　　陈志武认为，要彻底解决欧债危机、刺激欧元区经济复苏，欧元区各国未来至少需要进行三方面改革。

ChenZhiWu think,To thoroughly solve the debt crisis/Stimulate the eurozone's economic recovery,The eurozone countries need at least three aspects of future reform.

　　第一，各国财政政策必须受到欧盟更多约束。在某种程度上，各成员国与欧盟的关系应该像美国各州跟联邦政府的关系：既有联邦政府的统一约束，又保留州政府的独立性，包括财政独立性。而这些改革需要成员国放弃许多主权，这需要多回合磋商，也需要更多的市场压力甚至是危机。如果没有更紧密的政治联盟、财政联盟，单纯的货币联盟最终难以持续。

The first,Countries fiscal policy must be to the European Union more constraint.In some degree,Each member's relations with the eu should should be like the United States and the federal government relations:Both the federal government's unified constraint,And keep the independence of the state,Include financial independence.And these reforms need to member states to give up a lot of sovereignty,It need more round negotiations,Also need more market pressure even crisis.If there is no closer political union/Fiscal union,Simple monetary union ultimately unsustainable.

　　陈志武称，“这必然是一个漫长的过程。不过，我相信更具实质内容的"欧洲合众国"会成为现实。”

ChenZhiWu says,"This must be a long process.but,I believe that the more substantial content"United States of Europe"Will become a reality."

　　第二，尽量把欧盟金融体系与财政体系分离，让金融体系在即使有财政危机的状况下也能稳定运行。目前，由于各成员国的银行体系分别有自己独立的监管体系和运作规则，没有一个跨越欧元区的存款保险体系。所以，一旦某成员国财政出现问题，就会导致欧元区各国居民和企业的恐慌，担忧整个欧元区的金融体系会否崩盘。通过推出跨欧元区的存款保险体系和银行监管体系，可以在一定程度上，实现跨欧元区金融体系与各成员国财政体系的隔离。如此，未来某国财政出现问题就不至于拖垮整个欧元区金融市场。

The second,As far as possible the eu financial system and financial system separation,Let the financial system in even with financial crisis situations can stable operation.At present,Because each member bank system respectively have their own independent regulatory system and operation rules,No one across the euro area's deposit insurance system.so,Once a member financial problems,Will lead to the eurozone countries residents and enterprises in panic,Worries about the eurozone's financial system will not collapse.With the launch of the euro area across the deposit insurance system and the banking regulatory system,Can be in a certain extent,Across the euro area to realize financial system and each member in the financial system isolation.so,The future country financial problems will not drag across the euro area financial markets.

　　第三，必须解决更深层次问题，即欧元区国家政府机构太大。陈志武认为，“欧元区成员国政府福利太多导致其负债过重，而且他们什么都管制，比如劳工法太死、金融监管太死，这些制度障碍和偏差使欧洲经济的创新活力很低，压制了欧元区的经济增长动力。修改劳工法、降低企业税、放松管制等，应该是欧元区各国首先要做的事。”彻底走出欧债危机，最终必须依靠经济复苏和增长，而欧元区各国政府的不利于市场活力、不利于创新的制度架构，导致欧元区经济复苏难上加难。

The third,Must solve the deeper problem,Namely the eurozone countries government agencies is too big.ChenZhiWu think,"The eurozone member countries government welfare too much lead to its liabilities is overweight,And what they are control,Such as labor law is dead/Financial supervision is dead,The system barrier and deviation to make European economic innovation vitality is very low,Pressed for the euro zone economic growth power.Modification labor law/Reduce corporate/Deregulation, etc,The eurozone countries should be the first thing to be done."Completely out of the debt crisis,Finally must rely on economic recovery and growth,And the euro area governments against market vigor/Against innovation system architecture,Cause even the eurozone's economic recovery.

　　精彩对话

Wonderful dialogue

　　中国证券报：最近，欧债央行行长建议尽快建立一个共同的机构，负责对所有银行进行监管，以此避免金融业崩溃。你如何看待欧元区金融机构未来的发展？

China's stock certificate report:recently,The debt of the central bank as soon as possible Suggestions to establish a common mechanism,Responsible for all bank supervision,To avoid financial collapse.How do you think about the future development of the euro area financial institutions?

　　陈志武：这是非常好的、必要的改革。就目前趋势来看，欧元区的金融体系未来会朝德国、法国模式靠拢。如果是这样，未来欧元区金融体系会更多以银行体系、以受到高度管制的体系为重心，与以资本市场为重心的美国金融体系不同。

ChenZhiWu:This is very good/Necessary reform.The trend,The euro area financial system in Germany will be in the future/The French model close.If this is so,The euro area financial system in the future will be more to the bank system/With highly control system for center of gravity,With the capital market as the center of gravity of the country's financial system is different.

　　中国证券报：如果欧债危机迟迟不能解决、欧元区经济复苏乏力，会给中国经济带来怎样的挑战和机遇？

China's stock certificate report:If the debt crisis can't solve/The eurozone's economic recovery lack of power,China's economy will bring what kind of challenges and opportunities?

　　陈志武：欧债危机持续时间越长，对于中国经济来说未必是坏事。虽然欧债危机导致欧元区经济复苏乏力，会影响中国出口增长，但美国经济在持续回暖，就业局面在改善，来自美国的需求上涨可以在一定程度上抵消欧洲需求的下滑。欧元区问题可以继续给中国企业提供海外并购投资的好机会，中国企业应继续在欧洲寻找好的资产、有前景的公司去收购。另外，对欧洲的出口增长面临持续挑战，也会迫使中国企业进一步转型、产业升级、强化服务业等，长远来看这是有益处的。

ChenZhiWu:The debt crisis the longer duration,For China's economy is not necessarily a bad thing.Although the debt crisis led to the eurozone's economic recovery lack of power,Will affect China's export growth,But the American economy sustained progress in,To improve the employment situation,Rising demand from the United States in a certain extent offset declines in European demand.The euro zone problem can continue to give Chinese enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions investment to provide a good opportunity,Chinese enterprises should continue to look for a good assets in Europe/Promising company to purchase.In addition,Exports to Europe faces continuing growth challenge,Will compel China enterprise further transformation/Industrial upgrading/Strengthen service and other,In the long run it is good.