与2011年相比，日本经济在2012年上半年展现出更大活力，正增长已成定局，但不确定因素依然存在。从数据上看，日本经济几乎克服了“3·11”大地震带来的阵痛，但内外因素叠加导致增速缓慢，特别是欧债危机因希腊、西班牙等国而继续恶化，对依靠出口提振经济的日本来说，无疑是一记难以躲避的重拳。  

Compared with 2011，Japan's economy in the first half of 2012 show a greater vigor，Positive growth already in place，But uncertainty still exists。From the data on the，The Japanese economy almost overcome“3 · 11”Earthquake brings pain，But inside and outside factors to slow growth superposition，Especially the debt crisis for greece、Countries such as Spain and continue to deteriorate，To rely on exports to boost the economy for Japan，No doubt is a "difficult to avoid the punch。  

　　据日本政府公布的修正数据，今年1月至3月，国内生产总值(G D P)增长率为1.2%，按年率计算为4.7%。连续第三个季度出现增长。日本民间机构普遍预测，这一增长势头仍会持续，4至6月实际G D P可能增长2.0%，2012年实际G D P可能增长2.2%。

According to the Japanese government has released revised data，January to march，gdP(g d P)growth rates of 1.2%，At an annualised rate of 4.7%。For the third straight season appear growth。Japanese folk organization consensus forecasts，The growth will continue，4 to 6 month actual g d P may increase of 2.0%，In 2012 the actual g d P may increase of 2.2%。

　　从具体指标来看，内需成为提振G D P的主要力量，数据显示，仅一季度而言，日本内需占G D P的比例达到将近60%，1月至3月增长了1.1%，与此同时，公共投资增长了5.4%。日本经济财政大臣古川元久指出，继第一季度经济增长之后，内需有望保持“稳健增长”的趋势。

From the specific indicators，domestic demand be boosted g d P's main power，data shows，Only for quarter，Japan's domestic demand of g d The proportion of nearly 60% to P，January to march rose 1.1%，At the same time，Public investment growth was 5.4%。Japan's economy guChuan yuan long finance minister said，After the first quarter after economic growth，domestic demand is expected to remain“Robust growth”trend。

　　日本政府针对“3·11”大地震推行的灾后重建计划，对日本经济保持正增长起到了重要的推动作用。根据日本政府的规划和预算投入，震后5年间，与重建相关的公共支出将达到19万亿日元(约合2397亿美元)，相当于日本年度G D P的4%。日本民间预测，考虑到重建项目立项、申请、批准、拨款等手续时间，重建拉动的经济刺激效应在2012年上半年最为明显。

The Japanese government for“3 · 11”Earthquake of carrying out the post-disaster reconstruction plan，Japan's economy to keep positive growth played an important role。According to the Japanese government planning and budget investment，5 years after，And reconstruction of the relevant public expenditure will reach 19 trillion yen($239.7 billion dollars)，All of Japan's annual g d 4% of the P。Japanese folk forecast，Consider a project to rebuild、application、approval、The formalities for time，Reconstruction of the economic stimulus effect pulled in the first half of 2012 the most obvious。

　　还有分析认为，日本经济得以保持正增长态势，与全球实行货币宽松政策这一大背景不无关系。美联储带头实行超宽松货币政策，维持零利率并在推出两轮量化宽松后施行“扭曲操作”，很多国家也增加货币供应量，造成过剩货币涌入相对安全的日本资本市场，保证了日本国内的流动性相对充裕。

And analyzed that，Japan's economy is able to keep positive growth situation，And the global monetary easing the big background is relationship。The federal reserve took the lead a super loose monetary policy，Keep interest rates at zero and launch two wheels in quantitative loose and after“distortion operation”，Many countries also increase the money supply，Cause excess money pouring into the relative safety of Japanese capital market，Ensure the relative abundance of Japan's domestic liquidity。

　　但与内需相比，外需的贡献度仅为0.1个百分点。在今年前4个月贸易统计数据中，除2月份外，其他3个月均出现贸易逆差，其中1月份逆差额更是创下有统计以来单月最高纪录。奉行“贸易立国”的日本频频出现贸易逆差，显示日本经济构造正在发生深刻变化。从直接原因看，去年地震以来，左右日本进出口形势的主要因素包括零部件供应链问题、日元升值、泰国洪水、欧债危机引发的海外经济减速、火力发电用燃料进口激增等。进入2012年以来，零部件供应链问题、泰国洪水等短期影响因素基本消除，但其他因素不仅继续存在，甚至有长期化、严重化的倾向。

But compared with domestic demand，The contribution of foreign demand is only 0.1%。In the first four months of this year in the trade statistics data，In addition to the February，Three other standard a trade deficit，One January deficit is a frontal statistical month since records。pursues“Trade nations”Japanese frequent trade deficit，Showed that Japan's economic structure is undergoing profound changes。From the direct reason to see，Since the earthquake last year，Japanese import and export situation about the main factors including spare parts supply chain、Yen appreciation、Thailand floods、The debt crisis, which overseas economic slowdown、Coal-fired power with fuel imports surged, etc。Since 2012，Spare parts supply chain、Thailand floods and other short-term factors basically eliminated，But other factor not only continue to exist，Even have long-term change、The serious tendency。

　　有分析指出，作为重要的贸易伙伴，欧盟经济在其部分成员国遭遇主权债务危机后深陷泥潭，自然殃及日本，这是上半年日本经济缓慢爬坡的重要原因。欧债危机对日本经济的影响主要有以下几点：其一，欧债危机动摇全球经济复苏根基，经济不振、贸易萎缩，对“出口立国”的日本更是影响巨大；其二，欧债危机令全球金融市场诚惶诚恐，日本资本市场也未能幸免，过度波动造成巨大损失；其三，欧债危机让日元再次成为“避风港”，日元大幅升值令出口企业叫苦不迭。

Have pointed out，As an important trade partner，The eu member states in the economic part in debt crisis in mire after sovereignty，Natural disaster and Japan，This is Japan's economy in the first half of the important reason for the slow climb。The debt crisis of the influence of the Japanese economy basically has the following points：one，The debt crisis moved the global economic recovery foundation，Economic malaise、Trade atrophy，to“Export nations”Japan is the enormous influence；The second，The debt crisis make global financial market in reverential awe，Japan's capital market also failed to escape by luck，Excessive fluctuations caused heavy loss；thirdly，The debt crisis has once again become the yen“haven”，The yen to export enterprises struggle to complain。

　　日本央行行长白川方明在6月一次演讲中承认，今后一段时期，左右日本经济的最大风险因素是海外经济和国际金融市场形势。

The bank of Japan governor BaiChuan FangMing in June in a speech recognition，For a period，Or so of the Japanese economy is the biggest risk factors of overseas economic and international financial market conditions。

　　日本大和总研6月份发布的最新经济预测报告认为，今年下半年以后，支撑日本景气的3个要素分别为重建需求、中美为首的外围经济好转、日本央行追加货币宽松措施。报告同时列出威胁日本经济回到复苏轨道的4个主要短期因素，即希腊退出欧元区导致欧债危机恶化、伊朗核问题等地缘政治因素推高原油价格、日元继续升值、日本核电全停制约企业产能。大和总研的这一报告特别强调，根据该研究机构的模型，欧债危机恶化，最坏情形将使日本实际G D P减少4%，对日本经济的冲击可能与2008年金融危机相当。

Japan and ZongYan June latest economic forecasts that report，After the second half of this year，Support Japan a boom 3 elements respectively for reconstruction needs、China and the United States the periphery of the led to a better economy、The bank of Japan additional monetary loose measures。The report also lists Japan's economic recovery track back to the threat of the four main short-term factors，That is the euro zone's debt from greece to the crisis worse、Iran's nuclear program and geopolitical push the high crude oil prices、Yen continue to rise、Japan's nuclear full stop restricting enterprise production capacity。And the report ZongYan special emphasis，According to the research organization model，The debt crisis worse，The most bad situations will make Japan actual g d P reduce 4%，Japan's economy to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 and may be quite。

　　还有分析指出，从日本国内形势看，政局有可能再次出现动荡，将给日本经济增长带来极大的不确定因素。

And analysis shows that the，domestic situation look from Japan，Political unrest could again，Japan's economic growth will bring great uncertainty。

　　在日本，自执政多年的小泉纯一郎内阁2006年落幕以来，从安倍晋三内阁到菅直人内阁，先后出现了5届执政一年左右或更短的短命内阁。此后，去年9月野田佳彦政府上台，已历时半年左右，但执政的民主党已遭遇分裂之苦。就在7月2日，在执政的民主党中，前干事长小泽一郎等50名国会议员7月2日以日本首相、民主党代表(党首)野田佳彦不同意撤销提高消费税率法案为由，向民主党干事长舆石东提交退党申请，使上台执政近3年的民主党陷入严重危机。此间舆论认为，野田今后将更加离不开在野党的合作，否则社会保障与税制一体化改革相关法案将难以在参议院获得通过。如果不能顺利渡过民主党分裂这道难关，野田今后将难以维护民主党内的团结与稳定，也无法改变政权基础被严重削弱的困境。日本《经济学人》周刊指出，日本政府频繁轮替带来的政治不稳定对其景气和经济发展产生了破坏性影响。

In Japan，Since the ruling years of junichiro koizumi's cabinet in 2006 since the ending，Shinzo Abe cabinet to JianZhiRen from the cabinet，Successively appeared five sessions of ruling a year or less of short-lived cabinet。Since then，Last September wild tian mitsuka government on a stage，Already lasted about half a year，But the ruling democratic Party has suffered a split of bitterness。On July 2,，In the ruling democratic Party，Ichiro ozawa, miles before and 50 congress July 2 to Japan's prime minister、democrats(renders)Wild tian does not agree with the cancellation of virology raise consumption tax rate on the bill，Secretary-general to the democrats and submit to secede, executive application，Make power nearly 3 years to democrats in serious crisis。Public opinion here that，YeTian future will be more without opposition cooperation，Or social security and tax system reform legislation will be hard pressed to integration in the senate passed。If not succeed through the democratic Party apart this way through，YeTian will in the future is difficult to maintain the unity of the democratic Party and stable，Also can't regime change, the weakening of the dilemma of the foundation。Japan《economist》Weekly points out that，The Japanese government frequently alternate bring the political instability of the boom and economic development have a devastating impact。

　　但持乐观态度的日本《信使周刊》认为，2012年的日本经济有很多状况与1985年相似。日本正身处再度迎来梦幻般经济增长的黎明之际。如果消除各种管制和既得利益，日本的弱势产业可能一举成为主干产业。日本今后可在地热发电、药物研发、农业出口、金融业等方面取得发展。只有打破管制和既得利益，才可以看到光明的未来。

But optimists Japan《Messenger weekly》think，2012 years of Japan's economy has many conditions and the one in 1985。Japan is in again like dream in economic growth at dawn。If eliminate various control and vested interests，Japan's weak industry may become the backbone every industry。In Japan in geothermal power、drug development、Agricultural exports、The financial industry and has development。Only break control and vested interests，To see the bright future。

　　根据国际货币基金组织(IM F)发布的《世界经济展望》报告，日本2012年将有望实现1.7%的经济增长。而总部设在巴黎的经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)6月11日发布的综合经济先行指数报告显示，该组织成员整体经济继续显现增长迹象，但日本经济增长有可能在近期内放缓。(记者王龙云)

According to the international monetary fund(Im F)released《World economic outlook》report，Japan in 2012 is expected to achieve 1.7% of economic growth。And the paris-based organization for economic cooperation and development(The oecd)June 11, the first index released comprehensive economic report，The group members overall economic growth continued to unfold signs，But Japan's economic growth in the near future likely slow within。(Reporter WangLongYun)