工研金融观察·2012年12月

Work research financial observation · in December 2012

　　中国工商银行(601398,股吧)城市金融研究所 上海证券报

The industrial and commercial bank of China(601398,guba)City financial research institute Shanghai stock certificate report

　　总策划： 詹向阳 中国工商银行金融研究总监

Total planning: ZhanXiangYang industrial and commercial bank of China financial research director

　　兼城市金融研究所所长

And the city financial institute director

　　课题组长： 樊志刚 中国工商银行城市金融研究所副所长

Subject leader: FanZhiGang industrial and commercial bank of China city financial deputy director of the institute

　　邹民生 上海证券报首席编辑

ZouMinSheng Shanghai stock certificate report chief editor

　　课题组成员：马素红、宋玮、郭可为、王婕

Task group member:MaSuGong/SongWei/Guo for/Wang jie

　　赵幼力、王小娥、朱妮、李露、杨荇

ZhaoYouLi/WangXiaoE/ZhuNi/LiLou/Yang grass

　　国内方面：11月，CPI同比上涨2.0%，较上月升0.3个百分点。M1、M2增速双双回落，新增信贷有所下降，存款增长季节性反弹。央行逆回购力度下降，外汇占款出现负增长，银行间市场资金面仍较为宽松。人民币升值预期延续，即期汇率连续涨停。面临政策空窗期及限售解禁压力，沪深股市双双深跌。

In domestic:November,CPI rose 2.0% year-on-year,A rose 0.3% last month.M1/M2 growth both back,New credit fell,Deposit growth seasonal rebound.The central bank reverse repurchase strength decline,Funding of foreign exchange has left,Interbank market financing area is still relatively loose.The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to continue,Spot rate continuous harden.Facing policy window period and limited sales ban pressure,Shanghai and shenzhen stock market both deep down.

　　国际方面：以美联储和日本央行为首的货币当局竞相推行量化宽松政策，使国际金融市场进入暗流涌动的敏感期。展望未来，美元可能先抑后扬，欧元有望宽幅震荡，日元或将持续走弱。全球股市或将延续上行趋势；国际油价将小幅震荡下行，国际金价有望重新进入上升通道。

international:By the fed and the bank of Japan's monetary authorities led to implement quantitative easing policy,The international financial market into the undercurrent of sensitive period.Looking to the future,Dollar could first after suppression Yang,The euro is expected to a wide range,The yen or will continue to go weak.Global stock markets or will continue upward trend;The international oil price shocks will be slightly down,The international price of gold is expected to resume rising channel.

　　1.价格总水平：CPI温和上涨，PPI环比下跌。

1. The general price level:Moderate CPI rise,PPI link down.

　　11月，居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨2.0%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，创近5个月来最高位。其中，新涨价因素约1.7个百分点，翘尾因素约0.3个百分点。当月受天气寒冷影响，全国大部分地区鲜菜价格出现反季节上涨，推动食品价格上涨3.0%；非食品价格上涨1.6%，较上月下降0.1个百分点。

November,Consumer price(CPI)Rose 2.0% year-on-year,A rose 0.3% last month,And nearly five months to the highest position.the,The new price factors about 1.7%,Carryover effect about 0.3%.The influence by the cold weather,In most parts of the country XianCai price rise out there,Promote food prices rose 3.0%;Non-food prices rose by 1.6%,A fell 0.1% last month.

　　11 月工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，较上月跌幅收窄0.6个百分点，自9月以来连续3个月收窄；但环比下降0.1%显示价格改善并不明显。从分项指标看，采掘、加工工业、原材料等生产资料价格环比、同比均处于下跌态势，仍是导致PPI下跌的主要原因。

November industrial producers ex-factory price(PPI)2.2% year-on-year drop,A narrow 0.6% decline last month,Since September 3 months narrow;But chain fell 0.1% display price improvement is not obvious.From the subentry index to see,mining/Processing industry/Raw materials and other production material price link/Year-on-year drop were in the situation,Is still the main reason for the drop to PPI.

　　未来受新一轮全球性宽松货币政策、大宗商品价格走高，以及天气和需求等因素导致食品类价格走高影响，CPI仍将维持温和上行趋势，但完成年内4%控制目标已无悬念。

The future is a new round of global loose monetary policy/Commodity prices,And the weather and demand factors lead to food prices influence,CPI will still maintain moderate upward trend,But complete years 4% control target has no suspense.

　　2.社会流动性：货币供应量增速小幅回落，新增信贷有所下降，存款增长出现反弹。

2. Social mobility:Money supply growth dropped slightly,New credit fell,Deposit growth rebounded.

　　11月份，我国M1、M2增速双双回落。M2同比增长13.9%，比上月降低0.2个百分点，比去年同期提高1.2个百分点；M1同比增长5.5%，分别比上月末和去年同期低0.6和2.3个百分点。M2和M1之差为8.4%，较上月扩大0.33个百分点，表明虽然经济处于改善阶段，但实体经济受年末季节因素影响活跃度有所下降。

November,Our country M1/M2 growth both back.M2 year-on-year growth of 13.9%,0.2% lower than last month,Than the same period last year increased by 1.2%;M1 year-on-year growth of 5.5%,Late last month, respectively, compared with the same period last year low 0.6 and 2.3%.M2 and M1 difference is 8.4%,Is expanded by 0.33% last month,Show that although the economy is in improving stage,But the real economy by the end of the year season factors liveness declined.

　　当月社会融资规模1.14万亿元，比上月减少1546亿元，比去年同期多增1837亿元，其中信托贷款同比多增1279亿元，创历史新高。社会融资规模环比下降，主要是企业债券融资环比下降1175亿元，由于11月企业债发行规模下降和中票到期量增加，导致中长期债券的净增量下降。但从1-11月数据来看，随着二季度“稳增长”政策推出，社会融资规模总体有所放大，前11个月社会融资规模为14.15万亿元，比上年同期多增2.60万亿元，实体经济的资金短缺状况在逐步改善。

The social financing scale is 1.14 trillion yuan,A decrease of 154.6 billion yuan more than last month,More than the same period last year increased 183.7 billion yuan,The year-on-year increase trust loans more than 127.9 billion yuan,A record.Social financing scale link down,Mainly is the enterprise bond financing link down 117.5 billion yuan,Because QiYeZhai November issue size down and the ticket of increasing maturity,Lead to long-term bond net incremental decline.But from 1 - November data to see,As the second quarter"Steady growth"Policy introduced,The overall social financing scale is enlarged,The first 11 months of social financing scale for 14.15 trillion yuan,Than the same period last year increased more than 2.6 trillion yuan,The real economy capital shortage in gradually improve.

　　今年以来社会融资结构呈现加速优化趋势：人民币新增贷款规模得到有效控制，信用债规模大幅提升。今年前11个月，人民币新增贷款占社会融资规模占比为54.77%，较上年同期下降3.45个百分点。据上证资讯数据显示，今年以来包括短融、中票、公司债、企业债等品种的信用债发行规模为2.94亿元，与去年同期1.12亿元的发行规模相比，同比增长162.5%，呈现供需两旺的局面。

Since this year social financing structure optimization on accelerating trend:The new loan scale control effectively,Credit debt scale increases.The first 11 months of this year,The new loans accounted for social financing scale accounted for more than 54.77%,Fell 3.45% year-on-year.According to the Shanghai information data display,Since this year including short melt/Ticket in/Corporate debt/QiYeZhai varieties such as credit debt issue size for 294 million yuan,With the same period last year compared to 112 million yuan issue size,Year-on-year growth of 162.5%,Present situation of supply and demand are good.

　　11月份，金融机构人民币贷款增速为15.7%，比上月末低0.2个百分点；当月新增贷款5229亿元，同比少增400亿元。贷款新增放缓主要由于年末银行信贷额度的约束增大和监管部门对于同业代付业务的规范要求导致。但从前11个月来看，本年信贷新增额已达7.75万亿元，同比多增9191亿元，超过去年全年7.47万亿元的新增额，全年信贷投放总量仍是稳中趋松。

November,Financial institutions RMB loan growth was 15.7%,A 0.2% lower than last month;The new loans 522.9 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase 40 billion yuan less.New loans slowdown mainly due to the end of the year the bank lines of credit constraints and increase supervision department for trade pay for another business to the specification requirements.But had 11 months to see,The credit XinZengE has reached 7.75 trillion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 919.1 billion yuan,Last year more than 7.47 trillion yuan XinZengE,The total amount of credit availability is still in the stability of the pine.

　　从贷款增长结构来看，当月票据融资减少369亿元，已连续3个月减少，随着上半年新开的大量承兑汇票陆续到期，票据融资继续下降或导致票据贴现量维持下降趋势；短期贷款增加3940亿元，同比多增822亿元，环比多增1168亿元，占新增贷款比重回升到68%，环比提高28个百分点，但接近去年同期62%水平；中长期贷款增加1484亿元，同比多增348亿元，环比少增1352亿元。

In terms of the structure of credit growth,The bill financing a decrease of 36.9 billion yuan,Has three consecutive months to reduce,As in the first half of the newly opened a lot of acceptance has matured,Bill financing continue to fall or cause bill discount quantity to maintain downward trend;Short term loan an increase of 394 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 82.2 billion yuan,Link gain 116.8 billion yuan,New loans accounted for the proportion of picks up to 68%,Link is increased by 28%,But close to the same period last year 62% level;Long-term and medium-term loans an increase of 148.4 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 34.8 billion yuan,Link less increase 135.2 billion yuan.

　　本月中长期贷款占比的超预期下降主要受对公中长期贷款净减少31亿元影响：年末实体经济中长期资金需求下降，而对短期资金周转需求上升，同时，商业银行为年末为“挤水分”，增加来年信贷项目储备也导致中长期贷款新增出现反复。11月，居民中长期贷款继续回升，同比多增539亿元，环比多增364亿元，原因主要在于房地产市场销售回暖对居民中长期信贷需求产生促进作用。

This month than long-term and medium-term loans accounted for the super is expected to decline is mainly affected by tests of long-term and medium-term loans 3.1 billion yuan net reduce influence:The end of the year the real economy long-term capital demand decline,For short term capital turnover rising demand,At the same time,Commercial bank as the end of the year for"Squeeze water",In the coming year increase credit project reserves will lead to long-term and medium-term loans new appeared again and again.November,Residents long-term and medium-term loans continue to recover,Year-on-year increase more than 53.9 billion yuan,Link gain 36.4 billion yuan,The main reason lies in the real estate market sales milder on the residents' long-term credit demand contribute.

　　11月份，金融机构人民币存款同比增长13.4%，分别比上月末和上年同期提高0.1个和0.3个百分点。新增人民币存款4379亿元，同比多增1510亿元，环比多增7178亿元（10月为净减少2799亿元）。分析11月存款多增原因，主要是股市低迷，居民储蓄出现回流；而临近年末企业货款回笼，同时商业银行积极揽存，企业存款增速相对平稳，回归正常；本年财政存款的投放较往年力度较弱，年末支出较少。

November,Financial institutions RMB deposit year-on-year growth of 13.4%,Late last month, respectively, compared with the same period last year 0.1 and 0.3% higher.New RMB deposit 437.9 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 151 billion yuan,Link gain 717.8 billion yuan(October to net a decrease of 279.9 billion yuan).Analysis on November deposit additional reason,Mainly is the stock market downturn,Residents savings in return;Near the end of the year and withdrawal of enterprise payment,At the same time, commercial Banks LanCun actively,Enterprise deposit growth relatively smooth,Return to normal;The financial savings put a usual strength is weak,Spending less at the end of.

　　从数据来看，本月住户存款增加2516亿元，非金融企业存款增加3256亿元，住户和企业存款增长良好；财政性存款减少1149亿元，而去年同期减少达3800亿元。据财政部数据，截至11月底，中央本级财政支出已完成预算进度91.5%；地方财政支出已完成预算进度83.5%，年末突击放款现象大为改善。

From the data to see,This month household deposit an increase of 251.6 billion yuan,Non-financial enterprise deposit an increase of 325.6 billion yuan,Residents and enterprise deposit growth is good;Financial deposit a decrease of 114.9 billion yuan,And the same period last year by up to 380 billion yuan.According to the ministry of finance data,By the end of November,The central fiscal expenditure budget has been completed 91.5% progress;Local fiscal spending budget has been completed 83.5% progress,The end of the year assault loan phenomenon much better.

　　展望未来，随着年末企业中长期资金需求减弱，银行货币投放仍将维持平稳态势，12月份新增信贷可能与11月持平；存款在社会资金流动性较为宽裕、以及商业银行年末面临考核时点的影响下，预计12月份将出现大幅度增长。从货币政策来看，保持14%左右的广义货币（M2）增速，基本与经济增长目标相适应。基于中国经济已处于复苏进程中、社会资金仍较为宽裕，且输入型通胀压力依然存在，未来一段时期货币政策仍将保持稳健。

Looking to the future,With the end of the year enterprise long-term capital demand weakened,Bank money put will still maintain a stable situation,December new credit may and November flat;Deposit in social capital relatively bounteous liquidity/And by the end of the commercial Banks face assessment under the influence of time,In December will be expected to increase by a wide margin.To see from monetary policy,Keep 14% of broad money(M2)growth,Basic and economic growth target to adapt.Based on China's economy has been in the recovery process/Social capital is still relatively well-off,And imported inflation pressure still exist,The next period of monetary policy will remain stable.

　　3.银行间市场流动性：逆回购力度下降，资金面仍较为宽松。

3. Interbank market liquidity:Reverse repurchase strength decline,Financing area is still relatively loose.

　　11月，在国内经济明显出现企稳迹象、欧美持续实施量化宽松政策的背景下，央行缩减了公开市场逆回购的操作量。当月央行连续四周净回笼，实现单月净回笼2070亿元，是自6月底开展本轮逆回购以来，公开市场首次实现月度资金净回笼。在社会融资规模整体宽裕的背景下，央行持续净回笼资金并没有导致资金面出现明显波动。

November,In the domestic economy appear obvious signs of stabilising/Europe and the United States continue implementing quantitative easing policy background,The central bank cut the open market reverse repurchase operation quantity.Central Banks around the continuous withdrawal of net,To realize net monthly performance of 207 billion yuan,Since the end of June to carry out this reverse repurchase since,Open market first achieve monthly capital withdrawal of net.In social financing scale under the background of the overall well-off,The central bank net for withdrawal of funds and not result in financing area appear obvious fluctuation.

　　从银行间市场利率来看，11月银行间人民币市场同业拆借月加权平均利率为2.57%，比上月低0.30个百分点；质押式债券回购月加权平均利率为2.55%,比上月低0.27个百分点。银行间市场流动性仍较为宽松。随着12月份央票到期量的增加，以及公开市场逆回购到期量逐步减少，预期年底前流动性将延续宽松的格局。

From the interbank market interest rates to see,November inter-bank RMB interbank lending market on the weighted average interest rate is 2.57%,0.30% lower than last month;Pledge type on bond repurchase of the weighted average interest rate of 2.55%,0.27% lower than last month.Interbank market liquidity is still relatively loose.As December due to the increased number of central ticket,And open market reverse repurchase due amount reduced gradually,Before the end of the year is expected to liquidity will continue the pattern of loose.

　　4.人民币汇率：即期汇率连续涨停，未来升值预期增强。

4. The RMB exchange rate:Spot rate continuous harden,The future is expected to enhance appreciation.

　　11月，人民币对美元汇率持续走强并创历史新高。11月30日人民币对美元即期汇率中间价为6.2892，较10月末升值0.17%。当月22个交易日中有21个交易日即期交易触及1%涨停。

November,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate continued to be strong and a record.On November 30 RMB against the us dollar spot rate middle rate is 6.2892,A 0.17% rise in late October.In the 22 trading day 21 trading day spot transactions harden hit 1%.

　　分析即期汇率持续升值原因，一是美国宽松货币政策预期和兑现的刺激助推国际资本流动加速，新兴经济体汇率大幅升值；二是国内经济企稳回升对人民币即期汇率升值形成一定支撑；三是机构去美元化行为客观上推动了人民币升值走势。交易性因素是当前即期汇率连续涨停的主要原因。

Analysis of the spot rate continue to rise reason,The United States is a loose monetary policy to stimulate the expectations and boosting international capital flow speed,Emerging economies exchange rates to rise sharply;The second is the domestic economy stabilises picks up on the spot exchange rate appreciation form must support;The third is mechanism to dollarization behavior objectively promoted the trend of the appreciation of the renminbi.Trading sex factor is the current spot rate for the main reason for the harden.

　　11月30日，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报收6.2051，较10月升值404个基点，升幅0.65%；海外无本金交割远期外汇交易（NDF）一年期定盘价为6.3215，较10月末升值265个基点，升幅0.42%，显示出较强的升值预期。

On November 30,Offshore RMB(CNH)At 6.2051 against the dollar,Appreciation is October 404 basis points,Increase 0.65%;Overseas no principal delivery forward foreign exchange trading(NDF)One-year fixed price is 6.3215,A rise in late October 265 basis points,Increase 0.42%,Show strong appreciation expectations.

　　11月，我国外汇占款比上月减少736.23亿元，是在9月和10月连续两月正增长后出现的下降。1-11月金融机构外汇占款增量仅为2900亿元，而在2007-2011年的5年里，外汇占款增量均在2.5万亿元至3.5万亿元的区间内。预计2012年全年外汇占款可能仅为过去年份的十分之一左右，较前5年大幅减少。

November,China's foreign exchange than last month to reduce funding of 73.623 billion yuan,In September and October continuous two months positive growth appeared after the fall.1 - November foreign financial institutions funding of increment is 290 billion yuan only,In 2007-2011 years of five years,Incremental funding of foreign exchange is 2.5 trillion yuan to 3.5 trillion yuan range.In the whole year of 2012 is expected to funding of foreign exchange may only about one over ten of the year for the past,The previous five years is greatly reduced.

　　分析其原因，一是今年外贸顺差将大幅减少；二是人民币汇率进入双向波动区间；三是央行对汇市的干预度降低，对人民币升值的容忍度提高；四是我国企业、居民持汇意愿明显增强。上述因素相互影响，导致今年外汇占款明显下降，这意味着推动中国货币投放高增长的一大基础因素作用正在逐步减弱。

Analysis the cause,One is the trade surplus this year will be greatly reduced;The second is the RMB exchange rate into the two-way fluctuation interval;The third is the central bank intervention in currency markets to reduce degree,The appreciation of the renminbi to improve the tolerance;Four is our country enterprise/Residents the remittance will noticeably.The above factors influence each other,To decrease this year funding of foreign exchange,This means that the promotion of China's monetary growth on one of the basic factors effect is gradually diminishing.

　　5.股票市场：股指陷入深跌，融资额大幅下降。

5. The stock market:Stock index fell into deep,Or junk-rated plunged.

　　11月，股票市场陷入深跌，沪指于11月27日跌破2000点，并连续多次创下46个月以来新低。截至11月30日，沪指报收1959.33点，较月初下降109.55点，跌幅4.29%；深指报收7808.96点，较月初下跌660.94点，跌幅6.69%。据证监会数据，当月沪深股市证券账户资金累计净流出155亿元,其中11月最后一周净流出115亿元,创8周来单周资金最大流出量。11月A股融资额仅0.39亿元，较10月份环比下降98.77%。据中登公司数据，截至11月30日，A股持仓账户数为5559.99万户，持仓比例仅为33.15%，创近两年新低。

November,The stock market fell into deep,On November 27, boomed below 2000 points,And has repeatedly hit a new low since the 46 months.By November 30,,Boomed at 1959.33 points,A month down 109.55 points,Or 4.29%;ShenZhi at 7808.96 points,A month down 660.94 points,Or 6.69%.According to the CSRC data,The Shanghai and shenzhen stock market securities account funds accumulated 15.5 billion yuan net outflow,The last week of November 11.5 billion yuan net outflow,And eight weeks in a single week biggest capital outflow.November A share, or junk-rated only 039 million yuan,A 98.77% decline in October link.According to the data's company,By November 30,,A share position account number for 55.5999 million households,Position ratio is only 33.15%,And a new low in.

　　总的来看，当前国内经济已筑底企稳，CPI仍处低位运行，社会资金流动性较为宽裕，经济弱复苏已成定局。明年将是结构调整攻坚年，需求结构方面主要抓城镇化发展，以此促进消费和投资良性增长，产业结构方面主要抓传统行业过剩产能淘汰，以此提高产业质量和效益。明年还是各类改革试点的推进年，各地都会因地制宜地推出各类改革试点，为深化体制改革奠定基础。

overall,The current domestic economy has built bottom stabilises,CPI still at low operation,Social capital is ample liquidity,Weak economic recovery has become a foregone conclusion.Next year will be GongJianNian structure adjustment,Demand structure mainly grasp the urbanization development,To promote the consumption and investment benign growth,Industrial structure mainly grasp traditional industry overcapacity selection,To improve the quality and efficiency of industry.Next year or all kinds of reform pilot in advance,All will adjust measures to local conditions to launch all kinds of reform pilot,Lay the foundation for deepening the reform of system.