在党的十八大确定新一届领导人之前相当长一段时间，“改革”成为许多人不愿提及的词。不愿提及原因并非不愿改，而是对其长期停滞萌生一种“疲惫”状态。

In the eighteenth big determine the new leaders before very long period of time,"The reform"As many people do not want to mention of the word.Don't want to mention why not willing to change,But for the long-term stagnation initiation"tired"state.

　　一般来说，人们会把改革期盼寄托于“两会”、政府领导班子换届时间窗口上。2012年春天“两会”期间，笔者曾问及一位经济组的政协委员有无推进改革提案，其笑笑无奈答，提了这么多年，提不出来什么了。1978年启动改革以来的三十余年间，头三分之二的时间在改革，后三分之一的时间改革停滞。停滞的漫长十余年，对于改什么，怎么改，包括政治、经济、文化在内的社会各界已有诸多建议。

Generally speaking,,People will look forward to in the reform"CPPCC"/The government leadership shift time window.In the spring of 2012"CPPCC"During the period,The author has asked a group of Chinese people's political consultative conference committee for promoting economic reform proposals,The smile helpless,To ask for so many years,What did you carry out.The more than 30 years since reform started in 1978,First two thirds of the time in the reform,A third of the time after the reform.Stagnant long more than ten years,What to change,How to change,Including political/economic/Culture, the social from all walks of life have been many Suggestions.

　　对改革的这种“疲惫”状态至十八大党和政府新领导人亮相，终有所改观。新一届领导人确定，重新唤起了人们对改革的亟盼和信心。十年一轮换的政治周期，能否迎来新的改革契机？有人对重启改革充满信心，也有人较悲观，认为历史不过轮回到原点，难有大改观。

In the reform"tired"State to the eighteenth big party and the government's new leader,Will change.The new leaders,To arouse the people to the reform of the eager and confidence.Ten years a rotation of the political cycle,Can usher in new opportunities for the reform?Someone to restart reform are full of confidence,Is more pessimistic,Think history but wheel back to origin,To a great change.

　　我们有理由相信，决策者也迫切希望重启改革。中央各部委都在提交意见，决策者获得信息众多。但当前社会各种矛盾并发，各项亟待改革的内容繁杂。千头万绪，不宜“眉毛胡子一把抓”。

We have reason to believe that,Reform of the policy makers also eager to restart.The central ministries are submitted,Many policymakers to obtain information.But the current social contradictions and,The urgent to reform the content of the multifarious.much,Should not be"Eyebrow beard delight".

　　改革从何入手？是摆在决策者面前的真实难题。官方及民间各种智库的研究人员对此研究并不多。国务院参事、前央行货币政策委员会委员、国务院发展研究中心金融研究所所长夏斌梳理改革繁杂内容后，从经济学理论角度，结合其多年在央行、证监会等监管部门及深交所等市场部门的实践经验，给出未来八年经济改革路线图。

Starting from how to reform?Before decision maker is the real problem.Researchers of the think-tank, the official and folk all kinds of research is not much.The state council advisors/Before the central bank's monetary policy committee/Under the state council development research center of the financial research institute XiaBin comb multifarious content after reform,From the perspective of economic theory,Combined with its many years in the bank/China securities regulatory commission and other regulators and shenzhen exchange experience of Marketing Department, etc,Eight years of economic reform in the future road map is given.

　　本报记者12月25日对夏斌进行了专访。他认为，寻找改革“突破口”就是要抓一股“胀力”。这股力量要能撕破非市场经济运行网，往后能推动扭曲的经济结构进行调整，往前可以倒逼各项改革。夏斌表示，这样的“突破口”有二点。第一，抓收入分配不公的改革。第二抓要素价格的改革。这“两大核心”改革，倒逼和推动土地制度、社会安全网、财税体制、国退民进“四大重点”的改革。

Our reporter to interview XiaBin on December 25.He thought that,Looking for reform"The breach"Is to catch a cold"swelling".This force to tear non-market economy operation,Back to promote economy structure adjustment for the distortion,Can forward DaoBi reforms.XiaBin said,This kind of"The breach"There are two points.The first,On the reform of the unfair distribution.The reform of the second catch factor prices.this"Two core"The reform,DaoBi and promote land system/Social safety net/Fiscal and taxation system/Countries from China"The four key"The reform of the.

　

　上篇:求解经济改革“题眼” Effects: to solve the economic reforms"Is eye"

　　顶层设计迫切性

The top design urgency

　　《21世纪》：有一种说法是，目前经济改革能改的差不多都改了，若政治改革难以推进，经济改革难以继续。你对此观点是什么？

[In the 21 st century]:There is a saying,The present economic reform can change almost all changed,If political reform to promote,Economic reform is difficult to continue.What is your view?

　　夏斌：经济领域中的有些改革必然会涉及政治领域，但也不是完全能覆盖政治领域改革中的全部内容，例如民主选举问题。我的基本态度是，在加快深入经济改革中遇到什么政治问题，不要再绕过去，该解决什么就解决什么。但说必须政治改革以后才能经济改革，这种认识又太原则，简单了。

XiaBin:Some in the field of economic reform will inevitably involved in political field,But also can not completely cover the whole content in the reform of the political field,Such as democratic elections.I is the basic attitude,In what political issues encountered in speeding up the further economic reform,Don't walk around,What the solution to solve.But said political reform must be to economic reforms,The principle understanding too,simple.

　　《21世纪》：过去十余年经济改革之所以停滞，以往零敲碎打，哪里容易推哪里，缺乏系统“顶层设计”的改革模式，是否其中很大一个原因？现阶段改革是否需要顶层设计？

[In the 21 st century]:In the past ten years the stagnation of the economic reform,Previously fragmented,Where is easy to push,Lack of system"Top design"The reform of the mode,Whether one big reason?At the present stage reform whether top design is needed?

　　夏斌：过去改革的缓慢，并不仅仅是没有顶层设计所致。我在《中国金融战略 2020》一书中就金融改革滞后问题谈了几点认识，改革缓慢有决策体系问题，还有决策者认知问题，也有方方面面改革的复杂性，导致顶层设计的滞后问题。

XiaBin:The reform of the past,It is not just not top design.I am in[China's financial strategy. 2020]In the book is financial reform lags behind some knowledge about these problems,Slow reform has decision-making system problems,And decision makers cognitive problems,And in face of the complexity of the reform,Result in the lagging of top-level design problem.

　　从去年开始，有迹象表明，中国经济开始进入结构调整期，外需减弱，经济增速减缓。若再不深入改革，今后遇到的社会风险比以往会更加突出。从这个角度看，迫切需要有一个顶层设计。如果再像过去那样，由各个部门规划，分门别类，四平八稳去改，已比较困难，而且会贻误大局。

Since last year,There are signs that,China's economy began to enter the structural adjustment period,Foreign demand weakened,Economic growth slowed.If you don't reform,Meet social risks in the future will be more outstanding than ever before.From this perspective,Urgent need to have a conceptual design.If like the past,By each department,classify,Lacking in initiative and overcautious to change,Has been more difficult,And will delay the big picture.

　　突破口：收入分配、要素价格改革

The breach:The income distribution/Factors of price reform

　　《21世纪》：需要改革的内容很多，千头万绪不能“眉毛胡子一把抓”。现阶段要推进经济改革，你认为突破口在哪里？

[In the 21 st century]:Need to reform the content of the lot,Much don't"Eyebrow beard delight".At this stage to push economic reforms,Do you think where is the breakthrough?

　　夏斌：要找改革突破口，先需要看清楚具体改什么内容。中国经济现在遇到的问题很多很多，有收入分配、金融滞后、结构失衡、中小企业发展困难等各种问题。中间的脉络怎么理清？我认为，按照国民生产总值的支出法、生产法、收入法以及国际收支法，这四种角度的分析能揽括当前国民经济中的各种问题以及问题形成的原因。因此要找改革突破口，就要搞清这四者之间的关系。通过

XiaBin:To find the point,First need to see the specific change what.China's economy is now a lot of a lot of problems,There is the income distribution/Financial lag/Structural imbalances/Small and medium-sized enterprise development difficulties, etc. Various kinds of problems.Among the thread of the how to sort out?I think,According to the method of expenditure in the gross national product/The production method/Income and payments,These four angles to clinching the analysis of the various problems in the national economy as well as the causes of the problem.So looking for reform breakthrough,Will find out the relationship between these four.Through the

　　最近研究分析，我认为这四种结构失衡既相对独立，又互有联系。有的有因果循环关系。每一种结构失衡都是从不同层面反映中国这一“不可持续”经济体的特定经济关系和经济范畴。

Recent research and analysis,I think the four independent structural imbalances,And contact with each other.Some have happens.Each structure from different levels reflect this in China"unsustainable"Economies of the specific economic relations and economic category.

　　比如说，从国民生产总值的支出法分析，看到的问题是，投资、消费、净出口比例严重失衡。是消费相对不足。而消费不足的原因是什么？在于居民收入偏低，核心问题是收入差距问题，这就涉及到收入分配结构问题。居民为什么不敢消费？在目前物价上涨背景下，要担心未来子女教育、医疗等各种问题，这又涉及社会保障体系改革问题了。

For instance,From the cost method of GDP,See the problem is,investment/consumption/Net export ratio imbalance.Consumption is relatively insufficient.And what is the cause of the insufficient consumption?Lies in the low income,The core problem is the problem of income gap,It involves the structure of income distribution problems.Residents' why can't consumption?In the current under the background of rising prices,To worry about the future child education/Medical treatment, etc. Various kinds of problems,It involves the social security system reform.

　　从生产法角度看，第二产业发展快，服务经济发展慢。二产中的垄断企业借力政府准入管制等因素，促使其大量投资资本有机构成高的项目。而且垄断企业又可以撬动大量的金融资本，自然发展快。生产资本要素格局决定劳动收入分配格局。自然政府企业利润高，居民劳动收入就低了。一些重复投资、耗能高的投资之所以能发展，还有一个大的因素，就是要素价格改革不到位。水、油、气、电价格还在改革中，便宜资源被垄断企业所掌握。利率改革又没市场化。这些因素从供给方刺激了不计成本、重复建设问题的产生。当然，从收入法、国际收支法还可以分析下去。当把这些结构失衡及原因脉络理清楚后，寻找改革突破口就容易了。我个人认为，突破口应抓“两大核心”问题。

From the viewpoint of production method,The second industry development fast,Service economy development is slow.Secundiparity monopoly of personal factors such as access control of the government,Led to the project of a large number of high investment capital organic composition.And monopoly and can move a lot of financial capital,Natural development fast.Production factors of capital structure decision labor income distribution pattern.Natural government high corporate profits,Residents of labor income is low.Some repeat investment/High energy consumption of the investment is able to development,There is a big factor,Is the factor price reform does not reach the designated position.water/oil/gas/Electricity prices in the reform,Cheap resources by monopoly.Interest rate marketization reform didn't.These factors from suppliers' stimulated regardless of the cost/The problem of repetitive construction.Of course,,From the income method/International payments method can also be analysis.When you put these structural imbalances and the reasons for the context after clear,Looking for reform breakthrough would be easier.Personally, I think,Breakthrough to catch"Two core"The problem.

　　所谓“核心”，就是要抓一股“胀力”，要能撕破非市场经济运行之网的胀力。通过这种“胀力”的改革，应该是往前看，它能推动扭曲的经济结构进行调整；往后看，它可以倒逼其它各种改革。在这样的思路下，经过研究，我认为有“两大核心”，第一抓收入分配不公的改革，第二抓要素价格的改革。

The so-called"The core",Is to catch a cold"swelling",To be able to tear non-market economy operation of the nets of the bulge.Through this kind of"swelling"The reform of the,Should be to look forward,It can promote the distortion of the economic structure adjustment;Looking back,It can DaoBi other reforms.Under such train of thought,After study,I think there are"Two core",The first grasp the reform of the unfair distribution,The reform of the second catch factor prices.

　　《21世纪》：沿着收入分配改革这一路径，各项改革如何关联，如何推进？

[In the 21 st century]:The path along the income distribution reform,How the reform,How to promote?

　　夏斌：抓收入分配改革，要提高居民收入水平。在农村，要倒逼土地增值收益回归农民的改革。土地增值收益的分配目前还是按照放大倍数的行政思路在改，我的意思是，要突出依法办事。

XiaBin:On income distribution reform,To improve the income level of resident.In the countryside,To DaoBi land increment income return to the reform of the farmers.Land value increment income distribution is changed in accordance with the administrative idea of magnification,I mean,,Should be highlighted to handle affairs according to law.

　　按照市场运作，该怎么办就怎么办。 更重要的是要突出“依法补偿”，而不是“公平补偿”。讲“公平补偿”，这个“经”容易被地方政府“和尚”念歪了。

According to the market operation,What to do and how to do. More important is to should be highlighted"In accordance with the compensation",Rather than"Fair compensation".speak"Fair compensation",this"By the"Easy to local government"The monk"Read out.

　　这项改革如果往前推进，目前情况下，37%的土地收入归农民，绝大多数由地方政府拿走。如果一改革，地方政府的土地收入马上会大大减少，城市基础设施资金就会出现很大窟窿。怎么办？就倒逼财政改革。中央与地方的财力与事权关系必须要有个大改革。这是土地制度改革对财政的倒逼。要提高居民的低收入以及思考化解地方融资平台风险，财政会出现窟窿，这是躲不过去的。在城市，如果再提高税收起征点、加快社会保障体系的建设，医疗养老水平要提高，必然又会逼着财政要来个大改革。

This reform if further,At present situation,37% of the land to farmers income,The vast majority of the local governments to take.If a reform,The land income of local government immediately will be greatly reduced,Urban infrastructure funds will appear a large hole.What to do?He DaoBi fiscal reform.Central and local financial and personnel relationship must have a big reform.This is the land system reform of the financial DaoBi.To improve residents' income and think solve local financing platform risk,The financial hole will occur,This is not the past.In the city,If we improve tax threshold/To speed up the construction of social security system,To improve medical support level,Will inevitably make financial and come to a big reform.

　　这是沿着收入分配改革这一脉络思考下去，土地收益分配制度要改革，社会安全网建设要改革，这两项改革最后会倒逼财政要改革。当财政改革遇到资金窟窿改不下去了，必然会引起“国退民进”的改革，引导民营经济的大发展。

This is along the income distribution reform this context thinking,Land income distribution system reform,Construction of the social safety net to reform,The two eventually DaoBi financial reform to reform.When financial reform meet capital hole to not bottom go to,Will inevitably cause"Countries from China"The reform of the,To guide the development of the private economy.

　　《21世纪》：沿着资源价格及资金价格要素改革这一路径，其它改革如何推进？

[In the 21 st century]:Down the prices of resources and capital elements of reform of the path,Other reform how to promote?

　　夏斌：总体来说，利率改革若进一步走下去，必然是利率市场化，核心是放开存款利率。利率市场化后，利率逐步体现市场资金供需均衡，对目前央企国企便宜的资金供给是一种抑制。利率市场化后，对进一步加快汇率弹性改革有好处。因此这又会对内外收支均衡起到很好的促进作用。

XiaBin:In general,If the interest rate reform going further,Must be market-oriented interest rate,Core is to let go of the interest rates on deposits.After interest rate marketization,Interest rates gradually reflect market supply and demand of funds,Of renmin state-owned enterprises cheap money supply is a kind of suppression.After interest rate marketization,To further accelerate the reform of the exchange rate flexibility is good.So this will be for internal and external balance of payments equilibrium play a good role in promoting.

　　利率市场化后，意味着银行存贷利差缩小，银行竞争加剧。结果是，有些银行经营不善会破产。这就会逼得中国政府对于已经讨论十年之久的存款保险制度，要抓紧推出。

After interest rate marketization,Means the bank loan interest,Bank competition.The result is,Poor management of some Banks will go bankrupt.This will force the government to have discussed the deposit insurance system of 10 years,To take out.

　　另外一个角度是水、电、油、气、矿产资源等要素价格的改革。要素价格的改革，对产业结构的调整、对发展劳动密集型产业，会起到很好的催化作用。

Another Angle is water/electricity/oil/gas/Mineral resource elements as the reform of the price.The reform of factor prices,In the adjustment of industrial structure/To develop labor-intensive industries,Will play a good role in catalysis.

　　我预测，只要坚定不移推动改革，先抓住“两大核心”的改革，在农村，重点是土地收益分配改革，在城市，加快社会保障体系改革，抓住这两点重点，届时财政一定不是现在的盈余或微弱的赤字，而是会出现大窟窿。这就会逼财政要改革，就会逼得政府卖掉国企部分股权，还富于民。在“两大核心，四大重点”改革中真正难的是四大重点改革，最后会遇到意识形态、政治等方面的阻力。

I predict,As long as unswervingly promote reform,through"Two core"The reform of the,In the countryside,The key is land income distribution reform,In the city,We will accelerate reform of the social security system,Seize this two point,When financial must not be weak surplus or deficit of now,But there will be big hole.This will force financial reform,Will force the government to sell stakes in state-owned enterprises,Is full of people.In the"Two core,The four key"Reform is really difficult in four key reform,Finally will meet ideology/The aspects of political resistance.

　　“城镇化”推演

"urbanization"ching

　　《21世纪》：城镇化能否成为全面、彻底经济改革的“突破口”和“切入点”？

[In the 21 st century]:Urbanization can become comprehensive/Radical economic reform"The breach"and"The breakthrough point"?

　　夏斌：城镇化意味着什么？意味着第一，农民要进城。现在提户籍改革，方向是对的。但是不仅是简单的户籍问题。农民进城后，养老、医疗、孩子教育问题都要解决。这背后是一系列的资金问题，是地方财政支出问题。发改委人士算过，一个农民工进城需要财政支出8万元。如果1亿农民工进城要多少钱？这是很大一笔支出。

XiaBin:Urbanization mean?Means that the first,The farmer to the city.Reform of the household registration right now,The direction is right.But is not only a simple problem of census register.After the farmers into the city,Provide for the aged/Medical treatment/Children education problem will be solved.Behind this funds is a series of problems,Is the local fiscal expenditure.Development and reform commission to calculate,A migrant to spending 80000 yuan.How much it would cost if 100 million migrant workers into the city?This is a big payout.

　　第二，农民进城后要住下来，要有房，房子里面要配有水、电、气，外面要有道路建设、污水处理等。这意味着要一大笔基础设施建设投资，谁拿钱？土地分配制度改革后，“土地财政”收入又会出现意想不到的减少程度。这些投资需要的资金谁来提供？就要改革现在的各种投资门槛，要想办法引进民间资本。

The second,After the farmers into the city to live down,Must have the room,House to be equipped with water/electricity/gas,Outside to have a road construction/Sewage treatment, etc.That means a lot of infrastructure investment,Who take money?After land distribution system reform,"Land finance"Income and there will be unexpected degree is reduced.Who can provide these investments need of funds?Will reform the present all kinds of investment threshold,To think of some way to introduce private capital.

　　第三，农民进城后要长期住下来，要有长期收入，意味着要就业。企业谁来创？央企很难会去广大中小城镇投资，那就要吸引中小企业去。这又涉及到降投资门槛、降税、落实“非公36条”等改革。

The third,After the farmers into the city to live for a long time,Want to have a long-term income,Means to obtain employment.Enterprise who is going to create?Renmin is difficult to go to the small and medium-sized cities and towns,That is about to attract small and medium-sized enterprises.It involves the investment threshold/Lower taxes/To carry out"In this article 36"Such as the reform.

　　另外，城市居民消费是农民消费的3倍，是中国扩大内需、提高消费能力的主体。目前讨论的城镇化政策并不能涵盖扩大城市居民的消费、进行收入分配改革的一系列政策内容。

In addition,Urban residents consumption are farmers consumption of three times,China is boosting domestic demand/Raising the ability of consumption.The discussion of urbanization policy does not cover the expansion of urban residents consumption/Income distribution reform in a series of policy content.

　　因此，从结论说，城镇化对推动中国经济增长确实是有很大的空间。但是，这是结果，不是原因。城镇化是一系列政策制度调整演进的结果，是最终的历史任务和目标。只有抓住抓好一项项先期的改革，才能真正提高城镇化水平，因此城镇化本身不能构成改革的直接“抓手”。

so,From the conclusion that,Urbanization in promoting China's economic growth is indeed a lot of space.but,This is the result,Is not a reason.Urbanization is the result of a series of policy adjustment system evolution,Is the final historical mission and goals.Only seize the ie one pays special attention to the reform of the first,To improve the level of urbanization,Therefore urbanization itself cannot constitute a reform directly"pupils".

　　下篇:构画金融改革路线图 Next: outline financial reform road map

　　切入点：利率市场化

The breakthrough point:Interest rate marketization

　　《21世纪》：你认为金融改革的“切入点”是什么？为什么其构成“切入点”？

[In the 21 st century]:Do you think of financial reform"The breakthrough point"What is the?Why the form"The breakthrough point"?

　　夏斌：我认为“切入点”还是利率市场化。金融或者叫金融体系，相对实体经济来说，核心问题是资金及资金价格。为什么从利率市场化着手呢？因为利率市场化后，对建立稳定的金融体系很有好处。要建立稳定、有效的金融体系，就要求有竞争。利率一市场化，竞争会加剧，有的银行会破产，这就要求建立存款保险制度。这个制度已经讨论了10多年。记得我2002年离开人民银行总行前，就已经开始讨论建立存款保险制度。

XiaBin:I think"The breakthrough point"Or interest rate marketization.Financial or financial system,Relative to the real economy,The core problem is capital and price.Why begin with interest rate liberalization?Because after interest rate marketization,It's good to establish the stability of the financial system.To establish stable/Effective financial system,Requires a competition.Interest rates a market,Competition will intensify,Some Banks may go bankrupt,This requires to establish deposit insurance system.The system has been discussed for more than ten years.Remember I left before the people's bank of China head office in 2002,Began to discuss establishing deposit insurance system.

　　利率市场化后，汇率会进一步加快弹性，浮动空间会越来越大。汇率和资本管理，是价格和数量的关系，在调控内外资金关系上，实际是一个问题的两个方面。一个是价格角度，一个是数量角度。当价格没完全放开，资本管制就要严。当价格放开，有风险承受能力了，自然数量管制的限制就可以少了。

After interest rate marketization,Exchange rate will further accelerate the speed of the elastic,Floating space will be more and more big.Exchange rate and capital management,Is the relationship between price and quantity,On the control relationship between internal and external capital,Is actually a problem of two aspects.One is the price point of view,One is a number of angles.When prices are not completely let go,Capital controls will be severe.When the price let go,There is a risk to bear ability,Natural control of restrictions on the number can be less.

　　我相信中国一定会走向浮动汇率制度，这是大的方向。因为没有一个大国经济体，它的汇率制度是不融入国际主流汇率体系的，特别是当中国经济规模逐步逼近美国第一大经济体的时候。当今国际主流汇率制度是浮动汇率制度，中国汇率改革方向肯定是会放开的。当然在这过程中，如果分析今天的汇率，短期的汇率涨跌由很多因素决定。趋势看，中央银行的干预会越来越少。

I believe that China will go to the floating exchange rate system,This is the direction.Because there is no a big country economy,Its exchange rate regime is not into the mainstream of international exchange rate system,Especially when China's economy gradually approaching the first largest economy in the United States.Today's mainstream international exchange rate system is floating exchange rate system,China's exchange rate reform direction must be will let go.In the process, of course,If the exchange rate today,Short-term exchange rate fluctuations decided by many factors.The trend,The central bank intervention will be less and less.

　　随着利率、汇率的市场化，央行的调控方式会更灵活、更有效，更尊重市场规律。因此从总体上看，由利率市场化引起的金融体系的一系列变革，会有利于资金更加合理的配置，从而更有利于推进实体经济的发展。

With interest rates/The marketization of exchange rate,The central bank's regulation way will be more flexible/More effective,More respect the market rules.So on the whole,A series of changes caused by interest rate liberalization of the financial system,Will be beneficial to more reasonable allocation of funds,Thus more conducive to promoting the development of the real economy.

　　《21世纪》：利率改革、汇率改革、资本项目开放是否需遵从先后次序？

[In the 21 st century]:Interest rate reform/Exchange rate reform/Open capital account whether to order?

　　夏斌：从基本程序来说，很简单，国内金融没有搞好的话，一打开金融国门就会被冲垮。东南亚金融危机是个教训。从这个意义上讲，是有次序的，有个基本的原则。但是在具体改革中，在已经把握这个基本原则后，汇率、利率、资本管制，现在还要加一项人民币国际化，哪一个先放一点，哪一个放多一点，这之间主要是讲政策协调和平衡。没法很细、很量化，也没有很好的公式或模式。西方世界也没有经验。

XiaBin:From the basic procedures,Is very simple,Domestic financial did not do well,A financial abroad will be burst open.Southeast Asian financial crisis is a lesson.In this sense,Is the order of,There is a basic principle.But in the concrete in the reform,After have master the basic principles,The exchange rate/The interest rate/Capital controls,Now also add a RMB internationalization,Which one to put a little first,Which one put a little more,This is mainly speak policy coordination and balance between.Can't fine/A quantitative,Also have no a good formula or pattern.The western world also have no experience.

　　《21世纪》：你认为整体的金融改革路径是自上而下，还是自下而上？

[In the 21 st century]:What do you think of the whole financial reform path is top-down,Or from bottom to top?

　　夏斌：中国30多年前最早的金融改革基本是自上而下的。比如，深圳金融特区的创新，全国银行同业市场的创新，金融市场产品的创新等。当然，改革的基础在于经济增长的内在动力。但方案的设计还是在上面。经过二十多年改革后，市场内在动力越来越大。金融业要赚钱，自然会有创新和改革动力，应该相信自下而上的呼吁。

XiaBin:China 30 years ago the first financial reform basic is top-down.Such as,The district of shenzhen financial innovation,The national inter-bank market innovation,The innovation of financial market products, etc.Of course,,Reform is the basis of the inherent dynamics for economic growth.But the design of the scheme is still on it.After 20 years after the reform,Intrinsic motivation is more and more big market.The financial industry to make money,Nature will have innovation and reform,Should believe bottom-up appeal.

　　从目前来说，真正的改革动力来自于金融业的发展，自下而上的改革压力很大，因为改革滞后了。但某一项改革能不能改，现在全国金融市场统一形成看，又要考虑全国市场的稳定。从这个意义上讲，又需要有一定的设计。

From the current,,The reform of the real power comes from the development of the banking industry,The reform of the bottom-up pressure is very big,Because of the reform.But a certain reform can change,Now the national financial markets unified form,Also want to consider the stability of the national market.In this sense,And need to have the design.

　　如果你一定要严格区分自上而下或自下而上，意义不是很大。从全国层面来说，改革需要有通盘考虑，但改革的动力主要来自金融业发展本身的矛盾、利益的追求，这又是自上而下的。当然，从某个不影响全局的操作层面的改革，也可以先自下而上，先搞改革试点。

If you must strictly distinguish between top-down and bottom-up,Meaning is not very big.From the national level,Reform needs to have overall consideration,But the main impetus for reform comes from the contradiction of the financial industry itself/The pursuit of interests,This is top down.Of course,,From a certain does not affect the overall operation of reform,Can also be bottom-up first,First reform pilot.

　　统一金融市场“不存在技术困境”

Unified financial markets"There is no technical difficulties"

　　《21世纪》：债券市场“多头管理、市场分割”严重影响其发展与效率，如何推进债券市场的统一？

[In the 21 st century]:The bond market"Multiple management/Market segmentation"The serious influence the development and efficiency,How to promote the unity of the bond market?

　　夏斌：关于中国债券市场的统一，当前已由央行在牵头协调。但我总的看法是，两个市场组织形态上的统一，扩大市场的规模，肯定有利于提升市场效率。但是很遗憾，总没有人下这个决心进行决策。

XiaBin:About the unity of the Chinese bond market,The current has been led by the central bank in coordination.But I am the general opinion is,Two organizations form the unity on the market,Increase the size of the market,Definitely helps improve market efficiency.But it's a pity that,No one under the determined to decision making.

　　《21世纪》：如何完善场外交易市场、信托市场、理财市场等其它各种金融市场？

[In the 21 st century]:How to improve the over-the-counter market/The trust market/Financial markets, and other various financial markets?

　　夏斌：我始终认为，统一各地、各部门场外交易市场，不存在理论、技术上的困境。技术上很简单，统一市场后也有利资源的合理配置。

XiaBin:I always think that,Unified around/Each department over-the-counter market,There is no theory/The technical difficulties.Technology is very simple,Unified market was good after the rational allocation of resources.

　　关键是中央政府要下决心，指令明确。建立全国统一的电子报价平台市场肯定比分散的市场好。

The key is the central government will resolutely,Clear instructions.To establish a national unified electronic offer platform market than scattered market.

　　对于当前的信托、理财市场，第一，是金融市场深化的必然，谁也挡不住。第二，理财市场的发展有利于倒逼利率市场化，有利于融资结构的改善。

For the trust/Financial market,The first,Is the deepening of financial markets,Who also can not hold up against.The second,The development of the financial market is helpful to DaoBi interest rate marketization,Is helpful for the improvement of the financing structure.

　　寻找改革突破口要抓一股“胀力”

Looking for reform breakthrough to catch a cold"swelling"

　　第三，既然是市场化理财，有风险也是必然的，不必惊慌，就像银行有不良贷款一样。第四，在风险问题上，对投资者要加强风险教育，要反复教育，这不是存款。

The third,Since is the marketization of financial management,Risk is inevitable,Don't panic,Just like the bank non-performing loans.The fourth,On the risk problem,For investors to strengthen risk education,To education over and over again,This is not deposit.

　　当然，教育不是万能的。个别的教训是必然要经历的。第五，对信托公司要加强风险监管，披露的信息要合法合规、真实全面，经营中要尽职，要有自觉维护好品牌的长期理念，行为不能短期化。

Of course,,Education is not everything. There's mastercard.Individual lessons is inevitable to experience.5.,The trust company should strengthen the regulation of risk,Disclosure of information to the legal compliance/True in an all-round way,Operation of the due diligence,Have consciously safeguard the long-term concept of the brand,Could not a lot.

　　在向境外人民币持有者开放境内货币市场方面，在人民币国际化方面，债券市场是可以加快放开的。上海市场曾经要搞人民币国际板，我早说过，与其搞人民币国际板，不如加快中国债券市场对外开放。债券利率基本稳定，多是机构投资者在参与。而且现在全国债券托管金额已高达20多万亿元。如果放开5%甚至10%让境外人投资，是不必恐慌的。

Currency markets within the territory open to overseas the holder,In terms of RMB internationalization,The bond market is to be able to speed up the release.Shanghai market used to make the international board,I have said,And make the international board,As to speed up China's bond market opening to the outside world.Bond interest rate basically stable,How is the institutional investors participating in.And now the bond custody amount has been as high as more than one trillion yuan.If let go 5% or even 10% investment to outside people,Is don't panic.

　　民间金融：市场化加码

The folk finance:Commodities market

　　《21世纪》：提及金融改革，宏观层面的要素价格改革是重点。微观的民间金融改革也讨论很多，你对民间金融改革的建议是什么？

[In the 21 st century]:Refer to financial reform,Macro level of the elements of the price reform is the key.Micro folk financial reform also discussed a lot,What is your advice for the folk financial reform?

　　夏斌：金融改革就是围绕金融机构、金融市场、金融调控监管三个方面展开。什么叫“民间金融改革”？难道还有“官方金融改革”？对这词本身我有歧义。

XiaBin:Financial reform is on financial institutions/Financial markets/Financial regulation and supervision in three aspects.What is called"The folk financial reform"?Is there any"The official financial reform"?I have different meanings of the word itself.

　　《21世纪》：完善中小企业融资体系，引导民间资本进入目前已有一些推进。市场准入限制有所放开，你如何看待？

[In the 21 st century]:Perfect the small and medium-sized enterprise financing system,Guide the folk capital into the existing some advance.Market access restrictions to let go,What do you think?

　　夏斌：落实“新36条”的细则规定，大银行控股村镇银行比例由25%降低到20%。我的意见是可以完全放开，不必规定必须大银行控股。

XiaBin:To carry out"New article 36"The rules of,Big Banks holding village and town bank rate decreased from 25% to 25%.My opinion is to be able to completely let go,Don't have rules must be big bank holding company.

　　原因在于，第一，国有银行没有兴趣去搞，这是自找麻烦。第二，作为银行来说，现在成立任何一家银行，高管人员有任职资格管理约束，必须有从业经验等各种资质限制，不是任一股东就能直接管理银行的。第三，即使民营资本当了大股东，在日常运行中，还有很多监管流程和监管指标。何况，现在民营资本也是有风险意识的。

The reason is that,The first,State-owned Banks have no interest in going to,This is asking for trouble.The second,As a bank,Now set up any bank,Senior executives have qualifications management constraints,Must have experience, and other qualifications,Not any shareholders can direct management of the bank.The third,Even if the private capital as a shareholder,In the daily operation,There are many supervision procedure and supervision.How much more,Now private capital is also a risk of consciousness.

　　现在讲向民营资本放开银行，关键的一条众多媒体未讨论。现在如果有10个民营大资本，每个拿出10亿元，成立一个100亿元资本金的银行可不可以？显然是不可以。为什么不可以？这是真正敢不敢放的问题。

Now speak to private capital open bank,Key a numerous media not to discuss.Now if there are ten big private capital,Each took out 1 billion yuan,Can set up a $10 billion capital bank?Is obviously can't.Why can't?This is really dare to put the problem.

　　《21世纪》：如何引导小额贷款公司的发展？

[In the 21 st century]:How to guide the development of small loan company?

　　夏斌：对小贷公司现在有很多限制，其本身也有很多不规范的地方，这是现实。到底怎么监管？还没破题。由中央监管，还是地方监管？现在是地方监管。监管要点是什么？要不要统一？并不是很清晰。

XiaBin:There are a lot of restrictions to small loans company now,Itself also has a lot of non-standard place,This is the reality.What regulation?Haven't".By the central regulatory,Or local regulatory?Now is the place.What are the main points supervision?Do you want to unity?Is not very clear.

　　小贷公司发展的核心问题，是要解决它的非金融机构的身份问题。小贷公司目前是工商企业，因此发展中很多政策都是受限制的。

The core problems of the development of small loan companies,Is to solve the problem of the identity of the non-financial institutions.Small loan company is currently the industry and commerce enterprise,So developing a lot of policies are restricted.

　　我的建议是，给小贷公司以非银行金融机构的身份。像信托公司、金融租赁公司、财务公司一样，没有负债来源，不能吸收公众存款，但又是金融机构。如果定位为金融机构，它的负债问题、金融杠杆问题就好解决了。但是监管要跟上，监管规范全国要统一。至于是以地方监管为主还是中央监管为主，这是政府内部上下可以协调的。

My suggestion is that,To the small loan company to the identity of the non-bank financial institutions.Like a trust company/Financial leasing companies/Financial companies,No debt sources,Can't absorb public deposits,But it is a financial institution.If the positioning for financial institutions,Its debt problems/Financial leverage is good to solve the problem.But the regulation in order to keep up with,Regulatory norms to uniform throughout the country.As for local regulation or the central regulation,This is the government internal can coordinate the up and down.

　　当然，要全面讲金融改革的路线图，除了上面说的一些，还有很多问题。例如，金融国有资产管理问题、政策性银行规范问题、农村金融体制完善问题、综合经营与金融控股问题、宏观审慎管理与监管协调问题，甚至央行大区行改革这张未捅破的窗户纸问题，等等。因时间关系，就不一一展开说了。

Of course,,Will speak comprehensive financial reform of the roadmap,In addition to the above said some of the,There are a lot of problems.Such as,Financial state-owned assets management problems/Policy Banks standard problem/Perfect rural financial system/Comprehensive management and financial holdings/Macro prudent management and supervision coordination problems,Even the central bank region do not crush this reform of window paper problem,And so on.Because of the time relationship,He said is opened.