英国石油入股俄罗斯石油，大量基金增持俄罗斯资产，而相应减持其他新兴市场资产。逐利俄罗斯，果然如看起来那般美妙？

British petroleum shareholder Russian oil,Large amounts of funds has Russian assets,And corresponding reduced other emerging market assets.By the Russian,Indeed as expected such as seems to be wonderful?

　　投资界的日历翻得特别快。即便是在五年前，英国石油公司（BP）与俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）于最近达成的交易看起来也是不可思议的—彼时，俄罗斯另一家石油公司尤科斯（Yukos）的私有化正在进入收尾阶段。但如今，英国石油似乎很乐意达成这样一项协议，从而在一家俄罗斯国有石油公司持有少数股权。

Investment community calendar over very quickly.Even in the five years ago,British petroleum company(BP)With the Russian oil company(Rosneft)In recent transactions also looks incredible - back then,Russia another yukos oil company(Yukos)Are entering the privatisation of ending stage.But now,British petroleum seemed content to reach such an agreement,To hold a minority stake in a Russian state-owned oil company.

　　与此同时，许多基金经理也都兴致勃勃地宣称，他们增持了俄罗斯资产。大多数人似乎并不介意近期针对俄总统普京的大规模示威活动，也不介意石油价格可能出现的下行拐点。对于石油大国俄罗斯来说，油价下跌可是个大问题。

At the same time,Many fund managers are cheerfully said,They has the Russian assets.Most people don't seem to mind the recent mass demonstrations against Russian President vladimir putin,Don't mind the price of oil may also appear in the downlink inflection point.For oil giant in Russia,Oil prices is a big problem.

　　太平洋(601099,股吧)投资管理公司（Pimco）的EqS新兴市场基金经理马莎·戈登（Masha Gordon）表示，自2011年推出以来，该基金一直在增持俄罗斯资产，同时减持了中国内地、台湾地区、韩国和巴西的资产。

The Pacific Ocean(601099,Shares!)Investment management company(Pimco)The EqS emerging market fund manager Martha Stewart Gordon(Masha Gordon)said,Since it was introduced in 2011,The fund has been increasing Russia assets,At the same time reduce the mainland China/In Taiwan/South Korea and Brazil's assets.

　　无独有偶，新兴市场专家、安石投资（Ashmore）首席策略师简·德恩（Jan Dehn）指出，他们的公司也增持了俄罗斯资产。在他看来，尽管2012年初俄罗斯总统选举期间曾出现过动荡，但整体政局还是比较稳定的。“争议的确存在，但对投资者来说没有什么重大风险”。

similarly,Emerging market experts/AnShi investment(Ashmore)Chief strategists Jane's favor(Jan Dehn)Pointed out that,Their company also has the Russian assets.In his opinion,Although during the campaign in Russia's presidential election in early 2012 had appeared,But the overall political situation is stable."Dispute is,But there is no significant risk for investors".

　　德恩同样认为，对俄罗斯以及其他新兴市场国家来说，形势的发展总有一定的周期性。“目前，我们正在经历一段适度开放时期”。允许卢布具有更大的灵活性，以及鼓励海外资本持有本币债券这些措施，都印证了上述观点。前不久，外资所有权在卢布计价的俄罗斯国债中的比例约为3%，而现在为5.4%。德恩预计，这一比例还会上升，将更近于20%这一新兴市场平均水平。

DE grace also,In Russia, as well as other emerging market countries,The development of the situation always have certain periodicity."At present,,We are going through a moderate open period".Allow rubles even greater flexibility,These measures and encouraging overseas capital hold local currency bonds,Confirm all the above viewpoint.Not long ago,Foreign ownership in rubles - about 3% of the Russian national debt,And now is 5.4%.DE grace is expected to,The proportion will rise,Will be more close to 20% this emerging market average.

　　对投资者来说更加有利的是，一项提案要求，从2013年起，国有持股比例超过50%的公司要将其利润的25%作为股东分红。此外，到2013年，所有俄罗斯企业都必须遵守国际财务报告准则（IFRS）。

It is more favorable to investors,A proposal,Since 2013,State-owned shares more than 50% of the company will be 25% of the profits as shareholders.In addition,By the year 2013,All Russian enterprises must abide by the international financial reporting standards(IFRS).

　　对大多数投资者而言，俄罗斯看起来已经具备了有利可图的条件。“对我们来说，俄罗斯是个好地方。”德恩说。就在俄罗斯发生债务违约后的一年，即1999年，安石投资推出了俄罗斯基金。戈登挖苦道，债务违约帮助俄罗斯实现了低水平的负债与国内生产总值比率。

For the majority of investors,Russia seems to already have a profitable conditions."For us to,Russia is a good place."DE said.Is happening in Russia after the debt default of one year,In 1999,AnShi investment fund launched Russia.Gordon sarcastic way,Debt default help Russia realize the low level of debt to GDP ratio.

　　另一位新兴市场专家艾瓦拉斯·阿布洛玛威夏斯（Aivaras Abromavicius）也持乐观态度，他不仅是东方资本（East Capital）的合伙人兼高级顾问，同时也是俄罗斯投资者保护协会（Russia's Investor Protection Association）的副会长。“俄罗斯正在经历一场巨变。通常负面新闻人人皆知，但那些正面新闻，却并不能常常听到。”阿布洛玛威夏斯说。他的乐观态度源自投资者保护协会所采取的行动。他表示，这些行动已由主要解决小纠纷，转到试图处理更大的治理问题上。“协会成立已有一段时间，但它从来没有像现在这样活跃。”

Another emerging market experts ai varah, abramovich roma's summer(Aivaras Abromavicius)Too optimistic,He is not only the Oriental capital(East on)The partners and senior consultant,Also Russia investor protection association(Were 's Investor carried Association)The deputy chairman of the."Russia is experiencing a change.Usually negative news,But the positive news,But do not often hear."Roman abramovich, "said roma's summer.His optimistic attitude comes from the action taken by the investor protection association.He said,These actions by the main solve small disputes,To try to deal with the issue of the management of more."Association was established over a period of time,But it has never been like this."

　　然而，英国石油应当注意到，当涉及能源资产问题时，即使是信心满满的基金经理也会更加谨慎。德恩表示，在政府精英眼中，有些部门无疑具有重要的战略意义，他们会积极地守护这些部门。而在俄罗斯，能源部门就是其中之一。戈登则考虑得更多：“你需要知道，所持有的公司是否会对一个强大的利益集团构成威胁。”

However,,British petroleum should be noticed,When it comes to energy balance problems,Even if the fund manager will also be full of confidence more cautious.DE grace said,In the elite in the eyes,Some departments undoubtedly has important strategic significance,They will actively protect these departments.And in Russia,The energy sector is one of them.Gordon will consider more:"You need to know,Held by the company will pose a threat to a powerful interest group."

　　然而，国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）的数据似乎表明，在公司治理恐慌性事件出现时，投资者并未退缩。2004-2007年，俄罗斯石油公司以有争议的方式控制了尤科斯。而就在这一期间，进入俄罗斯的总投资额却大幅攀升，从2004年的585亿美元，到2005年的1016亿美元，几乎翻了一番。到2007年，这一数字已经达到2229亿美元。

However,,The international monetary fund(International Monetary Fund)The data seems to show that,In corporate governance panic event,Investors do not shrink back.2004-2007,Russian oil companies in the controversial way to control the yukos.And during this period,In Russia's total investment is sharply,From $2004 in 58.5 billion,In 2005 to $101.6 billion,Almost doubled.By the year 2007,The number has reached 222.9 billion us dollars.

　　但也有基金经理清楚地指出，投资者在急切地向俄罗斯投资前，应该三思而后行。“简单来说，俄罗斯是一个完全没有产权的国家。”赫米蒂奇资本管理公司（Hermitage Capital Management）的创始人兼首席执行官比尔·布劳德（Bill Browder）表示。在他看来，那些声称看到机遇的经理人都忽略了一个事实，那就是他们的资产随时有可能被没收。“目前这种情况没有任何好转”。

But there are also a fund manager clearly pointed out,Investors to invest in eagerly to Russia,Should look before you leap."In simple terms,Russia is a country of no property."Hector part's capital management company(Hermitage are hours)The founder and CEO bill brow(Bill Browder)said.In his opinion,Those who claim that see the opportunity of the managers are overlooked the fact,That is their assets at any time may be confiscated."At present the situation without any improvement".

　　布劳德的亲身经历证明，一个投资俄罗斯的成功故事很可能在瞬间变成一部恐怖片。在赫米蒂奇的俄罗斯基金为投资者赚得大量回报后，他于2005年被驱逐出境。随后，他的律师谢尔盖·马格尼茨基（Sergei Magnitsky）发现，当局通过税务欺诈，从赫米蒂奇公司窃取了2.3亿美元。2008年，马格尼茨基被捕，罪名是他自己偷走了这2.3亿美元。

She's experience,The success stories of an investment in Russia is likely to become a horror movie in a flash.In part of Russia earn after a large number of return funds for investors,He was expelled from the country in 2005.then,His lawyer sergei magnitogorsk blavatsky(Sergei Magnitsky)Found that the,Authorities through tax fraud,Stole $230 million from the part's company.In 2008,,Magnitogorsk blavatsky,For he stole the $230 million.

　　布劳德认为，即便对那些自信能避开麻烦的投资者来说，风险与回报的天平也已过分偏向了风险一侧。“不同的新兴市场存在不同的风险，但在俄罗斯，风险会更加突出。”此外，他表示，1996年他刚开始在俄罗斯投资的时候，投资者还有机会获得10倍、甚至20倍的回报，而现在却不同，资产价格比那时已经昂贵得多。

She's thought,Even for those who are confident can avoid the trouble of the investors,The balance of risk and return also has too much to risk on one side."Different emerging markets have different risk,But in Russia,The risk will be more prominent."In addition,He said,When he started to invest in Russia in 1996,Investors still have a chance to get ten times/Even 20 times in return,But now is different,Asset prices was much more expensive.

　　“一切都取决于风险回报。单纯从经济和金融角度出发，在当前环境下，那里的投资形势并不乐观。”他说。

"Everything depends on risk reward.Only from the perspective of economics and finance,In the current environment,The investment situation is not optimistic."He said.

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