美国的能源革命将改写世界既有的财富分布和地缘政治生态。

U.S. energy revolution will rewrite the existing wealth distribution and geopolitical environment.

　　想象一下，当美国人不再进口石油时，石油世界会怎么样？全球资金流向会怎么样？美元走势会怎么样？地缘政治又会怎么样？笔者认为，这是今后十年全球金融市场最大的三个故事之一，它对财富分布、能源革命、交通运输均带来无远弗届的影响。

imagine,When americans no longer import oil,Oil in the world?Global capital flows?Dollar trend?Geopolitical again?The author thinks that,This is in the next decade global financial markets one of the biggest three stories,It for wealth distribution/Energy revolution/Transportation are brought no far of influence.

　　自从第二次世界大战结束，美国便成为石油净输入国，其需求占到全球石油贸易的1/4，美国在石油市场的地位，可谓举足轻重。

Since the second world war ended,The United States will become a net importer of oil,Its demand accounted for a quarter of the world's oil trade,America's role in the oil market,Is very important.

　　然而，一场能源革命已在北美地区全面展开。美国的石油进口规模已经由高峰期的每天2000万桶，缩减到不足1000万桶。这个数字在今后几年还会直线下降，国际能源组织预计美国将于2035年实现石油自给自足，笔者相信美国可能在2022-2025年即可成为石油净出口国。

However,,An energy revolution has launched comprehensively in North America.Scale of oil imports in the United States have peak by 20 million barrels a day,Reduced to less than 10 million barrels of oil.This number will be down for the next few years,The international energy agency will be held in the United States in 2035 is expected to achieve self-sufficiency oil,The author believes that the United States in 2022-2025 will become a net exporter of oil.

　　其实美国传统的石油生产本身相对稳定，目前每天产量为810万桶，2020年时预计升到1100万桶，随后缓慢回落。美国能源生产格局的改变，推动力来自非常规能源。2020年时，石油生产仅占美国能源生产的22%，剩下78%来自天然气、非常规石油和非常规天然气。非常规石油和非常规天然气更是从无到有，预计至2020年即可占到美国整个能源生产中的六成。

In fact, the traditional American oil production is relatively stable,The output of 8.1 million barrels of oil a day,In 2020 is expected to rise to 11 million barrels,Then slowly falling.Changes in the energy production in the United States,Impetus from unconventional energy.In 2020,Oil production accounts for only 22% of the energy production in the United States,The remaining 78% from natural gas/Unconventional oil and unconventional natural gas.Unconventional oil and unconventional natural gas is from,Is expected to 2020 can be accounted for sixty percent of the energy production in the United States.

　　页岩气生产异军突起，是改变美国能源生产格局的第一个要素。非常规天然气在北美地理环境下的开采技术已经成熟，量化生产逐渐展开，增长迅猛。而且由于价格的大幅度下降，这种新能源产品在美国的市场已被迅速打开。非常规天然气以能量计算的产量已经超过石油，成为美国的最大能源供应源。

Shale gas production rise,Is to change the pattern of energy production of the first element.Unconventional natural gas in North America the geography environment of the mining technology is ripe,Quantitative production gradually,Rapid growth.And because of the price dropped substantially,This kind of new energy products market in the United States has been quickly opened.Unconventional gas in terms of energy production has more than oil,Became the biggest source of energy supply.

　　轻紧油（light tight oil）为首的非常规石油，是改变美国能源格局的另一个要素。轻紧油生产所用的横向开采和水力压裂技术，与页岩气的生产技术一脉相承。技术上的突破，令十年前一般人闻所未闻的能源可能在2020年超过常规石油，成为美国第二大能源供应源。

Light tight oil(Lighted stand oil)The chief of unconventional oil,Another element is to change the energy structure.Light tight oil used in the production of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology,Line with shale gas production technology.The breakthrough of technology,Make ten years ago the average person unheard of energy may be over conventional oil in 2020,Became the second largest source of energy supply.

　　与此同时，节能技术和节能法规也会在几年之后，显著地压缩美国对石油的需求。生物制油，是替代能源的另一个大的要素。商业技术一旦成熟，运输与分销渠道一旦通顺，变化往往比预期来得更猛、更快，其商业应用空间，往往比最初想象的更广阔。

At the same time,Energy saving technology and energy saving regulations will also be in a few years later,Significantly compressed the demand for oil in the United States.Biological processes of oil,Is another big elements of alternative energy sources.Once the mature commercial technology,Once the transportation and distribution channels,Change tends to come more fiercely than expected/faster,The commercial application space,Often a broader than first thought.

　　笔者预言，2020年时美国能源市场将是常规石油、非常规石油、常规天然气、非常规天然气四分天下的时代，其中非常规能源比重高过常规能源。美国2015年超越俄罗斯，成为世界最大的天然气生产国；在2017年超越沙特阿拉伯，成为世界最大的石油生产国。美国将于2025年达成石油自给自足，随后变为石油净出口国。

The author predicts that,In 2020 the United States energy market will be regular oil/Unconventional oil/Conventional natural gas/Unconventional gas four parts of the world,The unconventional energy ratio is higher than conventional energy sources.The United States beyond Russia in 2015,To become the world's largest producer of natural gas;In 2017, surpassing Saudi Arabia,To become the world's largest producer of oil.The United States will reach 2025 oil self-sufficiency,Then a net exporter of oil.

　　如果美国不再需要进口石油，这对世界意味着什么？

If the United States no longer need to import oil,This mean to the world?

　　首先，美元大幅升值。在美国的贸易逆差中，石油净进口占四成。石油能源供应由海外移向国内，必然为美国的贸易项目带来结构性的拐点，目前困扰美国经济的财政、贸易双逆差中，至少有一半得到解决。美元因此进入中长期的升值轨道，并不令人惊讶。其实，在如今“比差”游戏中，一旦一种货币出现基本面的改善，升值并非难事。

In the first place,Dollar sharply rise.In America's trade deficit,Net oil imports accounted for forty percent.Oil energy supply from overseas to move to China,Will bring the structural inflection point for America's trade project,Finance of the U.S. economy at present/Trade double deficit,At least half solved.Dollars into long-term appreciation of the orbit,Is not surprising.In fact,In today"The varied"In the game,Once a currency appears fundamentals to improve,Appreciation is not difficult.

　　其次，财富再分配。美国石油进口需求的改变，会否导致油价大跌，尚属未知数，这取决于新兴市场（尤其是中国、印度）需求的增加。笔者倾向于相信油价会跌。中国石油(601857,股吧)需求仍会上升，不过增加最迅猛的时期可能已经过去。印度需求的故事，目前还是纸面上的预言。油价走软，对中东的石油美元势必构成冲击，对于过度扩张的石油国家的公共开支更是威胁，财富由新兴国家向美国转移，资金流向也因此而改变。

The second,Wealth redistribution.Change of oil import demand in the United States,Will cause oil prices plunged,Is still unknown,It depends on the emerging markets(Especially in China/India)The increase of demand.I tend to believe that oil prices will fall.China's oil(601857,Shares!)Demand is still will rise,But increase the most rapid period may have in the past.The story of the Indian demand,At present still predictions on paper.Weaker oil prices,On the Middle East oil dollars will make impact,For excessive expansion of oil country public spending is threat,Transfer wealth from the emerging countries to the United States,Capital flows also changed accordingly.

　　再者，替代能源面临重新洗牌。油价达到100美元/桶之上，催生出太阳能、风能等许多替代能源。这些替代能源中相当一部分受技术、市场、管道等多方面因素的制约，商业性应用仍有困难，部分企业在政府补贴热潮过后，甚至出现现金流压力。如果油价跌到70美元/桶，多数替代能源将失去独立生存的空间。

moreover,Alternative energy face reshuffle.Oil prices above $100 a barrel,Out of solar energy/Many alternative energy sources such as wind power.Of these alternative energy is part of the technology/The market/Pipe and so on various factors,Commercial application are still difficult,Part of the enterprise after the upsurge of government subsidies,Appear even cash flow pressure.If oil prices fell to $70 a barrel,Most alternative energy will lose the survival of independent space.

　　最后，地缘政治生态改观。美国是中东的警察，为了自身的利益主导着那里的冲突与和解。如今美国从中东进口的石油已经仅占其总进口量的17%（中国占43%），小过从加拿大的进口，五年后甚至可能低过10%（更多石油进口来自巴西）。中东在美国全球战略和国家利益中的地位明显下降。下一次美国在中东遭遇较大伤亡或挫折时，可能收缩其在当地的军事存在。“十年后在霍尔木兹海峡巡弋的，应该是中国军舰，而不是美国军舰。”一位美国国务院高官如是说。

At last,Geopolitical ecological change.The United States is the police in the Middle East,For its own interests dominated the conflict and reconciliation.Now oil imports from the Middle East in the United States have accounted for only 17% of its total imports(China accounted for 43%),Less than imported from Canada,Five years later may even lower than 10%(More oil imports come from Brazil).The status of the Middle East in the United States global strategic and national interests to be markedly reduced.The next time the United States in the Middle East in large casualties or frustration,Could shrink its military presence in the local area."After ten years in the 霍尔木兹 strait cruise,It should be ship in China,Rather than the United States warships."A senior state department official said.