本报编辑部

This newspaper editorial department

　　GDP增速有望升至8%左右

GDP growth is expected to rise to about 8%

　　随着国内稳增长与调结构政策效应进一步显现，2013年我国经济增速将略有回升，全年GDP同比增速预计在8%左右。在投资结构改善、消费稳中趋旺等因素带动下，我国经济增长的可持续性正在巩固，新一轮经济上升周期进一步孕育。

With the domestic firm growth and structure policy effect further,In 2013, China's economic growth will be slightly rebounded,Annual GDP growth to around 8% year-on-year.In the investment structure improvement/Consumption driven by factors such as the rising in the firm,The sustainability of economic growth in China is to consolidate,A new round of economic rise further gestation period.

　　2013年经济增长将主要由投资和消费共同拉动。2013年消费增长有望保持基本稳定。在本轮经济持续下行中，就业总体稳定，城乡居民收入保持较快增长，为消费稳定增长奠定了基础。房地产销量持续回暖，与住宅相关的装修、建材、家电、家具等消费将有所回升;根据汽车购置周期和原油价格走势，汽车及石油制品消费将保持稳定增长;受通胀预期影响，珠宝和贵金属消费因保值需求出现恢复性增长。

Economic growth in 2013 will be mainly driven by investment and consumption.Consumption growth in 2013 is expected to remain basically stable.In this economy downside,Employment overall stability,Urban and rural residents income to maintain rapid growth,Laid the foundation for the stable growth of consumption.Real estate sales continue to thaw,Related to the housing decoration/Building materials/Home appliance/The furniture and so on consumption will increase;According to the purchase cycle and crude oil price trend,Automobile and petroleum products consumption will maintain stable growth;Affected by inflation expectations,Jewels and precious metals restorative growth in the consumption demand for value.

　　2013年作为“十二五”规划实施的第三年，大量审批并开工的“十二五”规划重点建设项目将有利于投资增长和经济回升。但2013年投资增长面临一定下行压力。首先，房地产投资回升力量不足。随着商品房销售回暖，且销售增速超过新开工面积增速，以及土地购置面积增速降幅收窄，市场主导的房地产投资将出现小幅回升。但与2012年相比，2013年保障房施工套数、施工面积和新开工面积均有所下降，保障房投资增速将明显减缓。其次，出口不振和产能过剩、利润偏低，影响制造业投资增长。我国制造业投资与出口增长密切相关，2013年出口增长相对低迷，出口拉动的投资动力不足。2012年企业盈利水平普遍下降，众多企业出现亏损，自有资金不足，投资扩张动力减弱。再次，根据“十二五”规划部署，公路、铁路、地铁、水利等基建投资2013年仍有一定增长潜力。但地方负债率较高，税收增收困难而民生类支出压力较大，局部地区风险约束明显增加，基建投资扩张能力受到限制。

2013 as"1025"Planning the implementation of the third year,A large number of examination and approval and start"1025"Planning and key construction projects will be conducive to investment and economic growth picks up.Downward pressure on certain but investment growth in 2013.In the first place,Real estate investment rebounded power shortage.Along with the commodity house sales thaw,And sales growth over the new construction area of growth,And land purchase area by narrow,Market leading real estate investment will be small.But compared with 2012,2013 security room construction number sets/Construction area and construction area is reduced,Security room investment growth will slow down significantly.The second,The export slump and excess capacity/Low profit,Influence industry investment growth.Manufacturing investment in China is closely related to export growth,Export growth is relatively low in 2013,Exports of investment underpowered.Enterprise profit decline in 2012,Many enterprises appear losses,Their own lack of funds,Investment expansion force.Once again,,According to the"1025"Planning and deployment,The highway/The railway/The subway/Water conservancy and other infrastructure investment in 2013 still have growth potential.But place ratio is higher,Tax income difficult and people's livelihood of spending pressure is bigger,Local area risk constraint significantly increased,Infrastructure investment expansion ability is limited.

　　上证综指上冲3000点

The index at 3000 points

　　曾经，机构都热衷于猜点位；如今，券商却集体回避点位预测。在经历了长达三年的熊市洗礼以及所谓的“一致预期反向惯例”困扰后，即便2013年市场整体环境显著好于2012年，券商似乎也更愿持相对保守的态度，1800点-2400点几乎成为券商给出的2013年指数核心运行区间。

once,Agencies are keen to guess point;now,Brokers are collective avoid point prediction.As long as three years experience in the bear market baptism and the so-called"Agreement is expected to reverse the general practice"Trouble after,Even if 2013 market environment significantly better overall in 2012,Brokers also seems to be more willing to hold relatively conservative attitude,1800-2400 points almost become the brokers are 2013 index core operation interval.

　　然而，时过境迁，当改革预期持续发酵、城镇化投资轰轰烈烈进行之际，所有的悲观逻辑正在逐步消散。或许，年前近300点的上涨，不仅仅是对2013年春季行情的预演，更是对2013年强势格局的一种定调。

However,,now,When the reform is expected to continue fermentation/Urbanization investment of magnificent and victorious,All the pessimism logic is gradually dissipate.perhaps,Years ago the rise in nearly 300 points,Not only is the preview of the market in 2013 spring,It is a set of 2013 a strong pattern.

　　从决定市场运行的基础——经济基本面来看，尽管转型期L型的经济增长大局基本确立，但随着经济数据连续四个月的好转，以及城镇化十年40万亿投资大幕的拉开，相信2013年中国经济增长的中枢不会太低，而只要企稳于8%的水平，就足以对市场构成中期利好。

From the decision market operation - the basis of economic fundamentals,Although transition L overall economic growth of the basic establishment,But with the improvement of economic data for four months,And urbanization ten years 40 trillion investment the curtain open,Believe that China's economic growth in 2013 the central not too low,But as long as in stabilising the level of 8%,Is sufficient to constitute to the market in the middle of the good.

　　至于流动性，尽管从M1、M2以及年度信贷的既定目标来看，2013年流动性不会太过充裕，但进入股市的“活水”可能会超出市场预期。一方面，管理层除了出台具体细则推动诸如QFII、社保及养老金等增量资金进场外，近日又批准银行系基金公司再扩容，这无疑进一步拓宽了银行体系内资金投资的渠道，进而加大资金进入股市的可能。另一方面，当前全部A股10倍左右的估值水平，确实较其他市场更具吸引力，尤其是经历了三年多下跌的蓝筹股，已是跌无可跌。

As for the liquidity,Although from M1/M2 and the credit of the established goals,Not too ample liquidity in 2013,But in the stock market"Living water"May exceed market expectations.On the one hand,Management in addition to specific rules on promoting such as QFII/Social security and pension, incremental funds into the outside,Recently, the approval of the department of the bank fund company again,This undoubtedly further broaden the channels for investment in the banking system,Thus increasing the possibility of funds into the stock market.On the other hand,The current valuation levels of all a-share about 10 times,Is more attractive than other markets,Especially after more than three years dropped of blue chip,Is already down is down.

　　假设2013年全部A股的业绩增速回到10%左右的水平，则市场整体市盈率至少能回到13倍左右的水平，对应上证综指的点位至少在2400点附近；而如果2013年城镇化掀起的投资潮不亚于2008年的4万亿，则市场完全有可能开启一波新牛市，届时上证综指挑战3000点，也并非可望不可及。

Assume that all the performance of the A shares in 2013 growth back to 10% level,The overall market p/e ratio can return to the level of about 13 times at least,The index of the corresponding point at least near 2400;And if in 2013 the urbanization of investment boom no less than 2008 in 4 trillion,The market could open a new wave of the bull market,When the index challenge 3000 points,It is not expected to.

　　物价上涨3%-3.5%

Rising prices 3% to 3.5%

　　2013年我国物价将进入新一轮上涨周期。首先，国内经济企稳回升，需求对物价的上拉作用将增强。其次，猪肉价格在2013年年中可能重回上升通道，将带动我国食品价格出现较为明显的上涨趋势。再次，欧美国家采取量化宽松货币政策，国际大宗商品价格会出现震荡上行趋势，我国输入性通胀压力有所显现，带动部分上游工业品价格上升。

In 2013, the price will come into a new round of rising cycle.In the first place,The domestic economy stabilises,Need to pull up effect of prices will increase.The second,Pork prices may return to rise in the middle of 2013,Will drive our country food prices appear obvious rising trend.Once again,,The European and American countries adopt quantitative loose monetary policy,International commodity prices will appear concussion upward trend,Input of inflationary pressures have appeared in our country,Drive the upstream part of commodity prices to rise.

　　在上述因素的综合作用下，预计2013年CPI涨幅在3%-3.5%之间，较2012年有所扩大。但在国内经济增速平稳、粮食增产、不动产价格过快上涨势头得到控制和翘尾因素回落等因素，一定程度上抑制了物价过快上涨。但在劳动力成本上升、油气电等资源产品价格改革等因素带动下，当前我国通胀水平的“底部”可能已经抬高。“十二五”乃至更长时期，除非出现经济明显下降导致短期的通缩风险之外，我国将长期面临一定的通胀威胁。（下转T02版）

Under the combination of the above factors,In 2013 is expected to CPI increase between 3% 3.5%,In 2012 to expand.But in domestic economic growth/Grain production/Real estate prices rising rapidly momentum back under control and QiaoWei factors and other factors,To a certain extent, prevent overheating in the price.But in labor costs rise/Resources such as oil and gas electricity driven by factors such as product price reform,The current level of inflation in China"At the bottom"May have been raised."1025"And even longer time,Unless the economy significantly decline in short-term risk of deflation,China will be facing the threat of inflation must be for a long time.(Next turn T02 version)