本报记者 晓晴 广州报道

Our reporter xiao sunny in guangzhou

　　“软着陆”和“L形底部”可以被概括为2012年中国宏观经济走势的两大关键词。

"A soft landing"and"L form at the bottom"Can be summarized as China's macroeconomic trends in 2012 the two key words.

　　审视当下，我国经济的长短期矛盾仍然存在。虽然短期“软着陆”态势已确认，但私人部门自主增长的动能偏弱。2013年中国经济形势前景到底如何？本报记者就此采访了广发证券(000776,股吧)首席分析师徐寒飞。

Look at the present,The process of our national economy contradiction still exist.Although the short-term"A soft landing"The situation have been confirmed,But the private sector grow independently of the kinetic energy of the weak.In 2013, the Chinese economy prospects how?Our newspaper reporter interviewed wide hair negotiable securities(000776,Shares!)The chief analyst XuHanFei.

　　《21世纪》： 进入2013年，货币政策当局在操作上将采取怎样的货币政策？货币政策面临哪些挑战？

[In the 21 st century]: In 2013,,Monetary authorities in the operation will take what kind of monetary policy?What are the challenges monetary policy?

　　徐寒飞：更多的还是依靠公开市场操作。逆回购特别适合短期微调，预计2013年还将继续使用。货币政策的挑战主要来自两个方面，一是经济环境，2013年可能面临经济复苏进度低于预期的风险。二是金融市场结构变化，利率市场化、脱媒对货币政策提出更高要求。

XuHanFei:More or rely on the open market operation.Inverse repurchase is especially suitable for short-term adjustment,Is expected in 2013 will continue to use.The challenge of the monetary policy mainly from two aspects,One is the economic environment,2013 May face the risk of economic recovery schedule below expectations.The second is the financial market structure changes,Interest rate marketization/Take off the media puts forward higher requirements to monetary policy.

　　《21世纪》：此前，政府的增长目标已经从2011年的8.0%下降到2012年的7.5%，明年经济自主增长动能强劲吗？

[In the 21 st century]:The previous,The government's growth target has fallen, from 8.0% in 2011 to 7.5% in 2012,Strong independent economic growth momentum next year?

　　徐寒飞：外围主要经济体明年经济增长不太乐观，出口受拖累。货币政策腾挪空间不大。地产依然面临限购约束，拉动作用有限。

XuHanFei:Peripheral major economies next year economic growth is not very optimistic,Export by drag.Monetary policy move STH space is not big.Real estate is still restricted face constraints,Pull function,.

　　《21世纪》：2013 年判断经济走势的焦点是什么？如何在稳增长与调结构之间保持平衡？

[In the 21 st century]:Judge what is the focus of the economic trend in 2013?How to keep a balance between firm growth and structure?

　　徐寒飞：消费稳定，出口外生，经济走势的焦点还在投资，值得重点关注的有房地产开发投资、基建投资和制造业补库存。

XuHanFei:Consumption and stable,Export exogenous,The focus of the economic situation is still in investment,Is the focus on investment in real estate development/Infrastructure investment and manufacturing for inventory.

　　稳增长与调结构之间的平衡，更多依靠积极的财政政策。目前来看，货币政策大变动的可能性很小。

Steady growth and the structure of the balance between,More and more rely on the proactive fiscal policy.So far,The possibility of big changes in monetary policy is very small.

　　《21世纪》：2013年，我国的宏观经济走势将呈现哪几个特点？通胀压力情况如何？降息空间会有多大？

[In the 21 st century]:In 2013,,China's macroeconomic trends which will present a few characteristics?Inflationary pressure situation how?Cut space can have how old?

　　徐寒飞：宏观经济预计前低后高，全年增速7.5%。通胀前三季度低位运行，四季度压力相对较大。预计上半年货币环境相对宽松一些，下半年视通胀情况可能有收缩性的微调。降息空间不大。

XuHanFei:Before the macro economy is expected to lower the high,Annual growth of 7.5%.In the previous three quarters of low inflation,Fourth quarter pressure is relatively large.In the first half of the currency is expected to environment relatively loose some,According to the condition of inflation is likely to have shrinking of fine-tuning in the second half.Cut the space is not large.

　　《21世纪》：2012年三季度开始，人民币汇率连续创下历史新高，屡屡触碰1%的波动上限。

[In the 21 st century]:Three quarters of 2012,The RMB exchange rate for a record high,Often touch the fluctuations of 1% limit.

　　如何看待明年我国资本流动的走势及其对于人民币汇率的影响？

How to treat next year trend of capital flows in China and its influence on the RMB exchange rate?

　　徐寒飞：中国经济相对美日欧还是乐观一些，人民币将保持升值态势。但资本净流入的态势将趋缓。近期资本流入欲望强烈，这与欧洲、日本经济不乐观以及美国持续量化宽松有较大关系，但是明年会有一些变化，其一美国量化宽松接近极限，其二中国内部资本加速流出。更大潜在风险在于人民币国际化进度。

XuHanFei:China's economy relatively Japan Europe is still optimistic,RMB appreciation will remain.But inflows of the momentum will slow down.Recent capital inflows desire,This with the European/Japan's economy is not optimistic, and the United States of persistent quantitative loose has a great relationship,But next year there will be some changes,One American quantitative loose close to the limit,The second internal capital accelerated flow in China.More potential risk in RMB internationalization progress.

　　《21世纪》：迄今房地产限购令仍在继续，房地产调控何时能看到终点呢？房产税会成为下一任调控的接棒者吗？

[In the 21 st century]:So far real estate is restricted to continue,Real estate regulation when can see the finish?House property tax will be the next regulation of domino?

　　徐寒飞：房地产的根本问题在于制度缺陷导致政府缺位和货币政策不当的累计效应。地产调控是一个长期工作，只能放缓势头慢慢消化而不能过激打压。房产税调控地产的作用是很有限的，更多应靠市场手段。

XuHanFei:The root of the real estate problems lies in institutional defects cause government lack and the cumulative effects of improper monetary policy.Regulation of real estate is a long-term work,Can only slow momentum slowly digest and not ultra suppressed.The role of the house property tax regulation real estate is limited,More should rely on market.

　　《21世纪》：当前“影子银行”快速膨胀的实质原因是什么？“影子银行”的风险有哪些？

[In the 21 st century]:The current"Shadow Banks"What is the essence of the rapid expansion of reason?"Shadow Banks"What are the risks?

　　徐寒飞：根本原因是金融创新和宏观调控相互作用的后果。金融创新导致资金能够通过其他途径获得高于存款利率的收益，银行低成本资金来源减少。银行面临一方面资金来源减少，另一方面传统业务成本上升。资金寻找其他途径逐利的背景下“影子银行”应运而生。

XuHanFei:Root cause is the result of interaction between financial innovation and the macroeconomic regulation and control.Financial innovation in money can be acquired by other means than deposit rates,Bank of low cost capital source.Facing Banks, on the one hand, capital source,On the other hand, traditional business costs rise.Under the background of capital looking the other way for profit"Shadow Banks"Arises at the historic moment.

　　“影子银行”最大的风险是加大金融系统的不稳定性。主要措施还是应该加快利率市场化、让“影子银行”向透明化和规范化。

"Shadow Banks"The biggest risk is increase the instability of the financial system.Main measures should speed up the interest rate liberalization/let"Shadow Banks"To the transparency and standardization.

　　《21世纪》：在全球其他股市指数纷纷有着良好表现时A股却“熊冠全球”，A股持续低迷的根本原因到底是什么？明年能够支撑股市基本面的利弊因素各有哪些？

[In the 21 st century]:In other global stock market index has good performance in succession but A shares"XiongGuan global",A shares continued downturn what is the root cause?Next year will be able to support the stock market fundamentals what are the advantages and disadvantages factors?

　　徐寒飞：A股持续低迷既有长期原因也有短期原因，长期原因是中国面临刘易斯拐点，长期经济增速存在下移风险，短期因素是金融危机期间用药过猛的后遗症，导致通胀、产能过剩加剧等问题，在治理后遗症的过程中，导致流动性变差，盈利下滑。

XuHanFei:A shares continued downturn has long-term reasons there are short term,Reason is that China is facing lewis turning point for a long time,Move down risk to long-term economic growth,Short-term factor is too drug use during the financial crisis,Lead to inflation/Overcapacity exacerbated, etc,In the process of governance sequela,Lead to liquidity,Profit decline.

　　股市是经济的心理反应。一般来说基本面好，股市就好。能改善经济的政策就能支撑股市改善。

The stock market is the psychological reaction of economy.Generally good fundamentals,The stock market is good.Can improve economic policy to support the stock market.