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我国进口再现负增长 外贸疲软倒逼调结构--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-11

  海关总署10日公布我国8月份外贸情况。数据显示,8月份,我国进出口总值增长0.2%,其中出口增长2.7%,进口下降2.6%。

Promulgated by the general administration of customs 10 in our country foreign trade situation in August.Data display,In August,China import and export gross domestic product growth of 0.2%,Export growth of 2.7%,Imports fell by 2.6%.

  专家表示,8月份外贸数据是重要的观察节点,从目前情况来看,在全年“保十”压力增大的同时,政策效应需要进一步释放,包括调高出口退税、提高贸易便利化水平等政策可能很快落地。 

Experts say,In August the foreign trade data is an important observation node,From the current situation,Throughout the year"The ten"Pressure increasing at the same time,Policy effect need to be further release,Includes adjustable high export tax rebate/Improve the trade facilitation level policy may soon be born. 

  进口再现负增长 

Import reappearance negative growth 

  数据显示,8月份我国进口1513.13亿美元,同比下降2.6%,环比下降0.3%。进口继今年1月之后再度出现负增长,且远逊于市场预期。巴克莱资本中国首席经济学家黄益平认为,进口急转直下主要受到三个因素的影响:疲弱的外需对加工贸易进口的抑制,机械及原材料行业持续去库存,以及部分大宗商品价格下跌。 

Data display,Our country is imported $151.313 billion in August,2.6% year-on-year drop,Link fell by 0.3%.Import after January this year after reemergence negative growth,And far inferior to market expectations.Barclays capital China chief economist HuangYiPing think,Imports plunged are mainly affected by the influence of the three factors:Weak overseas market demand for processing trade import of inhibition,Machinery and raw material industry continue to go to inventory,And some commodity prices. 

  从大宗商品进口总值来看,当月铁矿石和原油进口分别同比下降20.9%和20.5%。这一数据显示,我国实体经济仍在低位运行。此外,基于进出口的关联性,进口负增长意味着外贸企业没有原材料和设备的采购需求,预示出口前景亦不乐观。 

From commodity import value to see,The iron ore and crude oil import year-on-year decline 20.9% and 20.5% respectively.The data shows,Our country the real economy is still in the low operation.In addition,Based on the import and export of relevance,Import negative growth means that the foreign trade enterprise no raw materials and the purchase of equipment and demand,Indicate export prospects, it is not optimistic. 

  出口数据则显示,8月份我国出口同比上升2.7%,好于上月但弱于市场预期,但并未扭转下滑态势。其中中国对欧盟和日本的出口分别负增长12.7%和6.7%。 

Export data is display,In August of our country export up 2.7%,Good last month but weak in market expectations,But did not turn down trend.With China to the European Union and Japan's exports were 12.7% and 6.7% negative growth. 

  尤其值得注意的是,“圣诞季”好景不再成为外需转冷的写照。对于国内最大的圣诞用品生产基地义乌来说,7至9月应该是商家手握大把圣诞订单的时期,但今年“义乌指数”已经跌破了1000点。 

It is particularly worth noting that is,"The Christmas season"Prosperity is no longer a mirror to turn cold now.For the country's largest production base for Christmas products yiwu,From July to September is a businessman should hand big Christmas orders period,But this year"Yiwu index"Have below 1000 points. 

  倒逼外贸结构变化 

DaoBi foreign trade structure change 

  海关总署统计显示,在出口商品中,机电产品出口稳定增长,但纺织、服装等传统产品出口下降。 

The general administration of customs statistics show,In the export commodities,Mechanical and electrical products export stable growth,But textile/Traditional products such as clothing export decline. 

  中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员高凌云认为,在这个贸易利润逐渐下降的时代,企业出于生产成本考虑,需要寻找新的利润增长点。其一是寻找原来没有渗透进去的新市场,其二是开发具有高附加值的新产品。 

By the Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at associate researcher GaoLing cloud think,In this era of trade profit decline gradually,Enterprise for production cost consideration,Looking for new profit growth point.One is looking for the original no penetration in new market,The second is to develop high value-added new products. 

  一些分析人士注意到,随着外部需求萎缩,部分订单也开始出现转移,目前也出现了一些外资撤离的情况。对此,对外经济贸易大学金融学院兼职教授赵庆明认为,这实际上是一个梯度的变化,也是中国在国际分工中地位提高的表现。不少专家表示,在外贸增速回落的同时,贸易摩擦也在增多。出于规避贸易“地雷”的考虑,中国也需要对贸易结构进行调整。 

Some analysts noticed,Along with external demand atrophy,Part of the order also begins to appear transfer,At present also appeared some foreign evacuation conditions.this,Foreign economic and trade university financial institute adjunct professor ZhaoQingMing think,This is actually a gradient changes,Is China in the international division of labor in position to improve performance.Many experts say,In foreign trade growth dropped at the same time,Trade friction also are increasing.For avoiding trade"mines"consideration,China also need to adjust the trade structure. 

  外贸政策空间大 

Foreign trade policy space is large 

  记者采访的一些专家表示,包括调高出口退税、提高贸易便利化水平等政策可能很快落地。据了解,广东省财政今年将安排超过1亿元信用保险专项扶持资金,用于支持企业投保短期出口信用保险、小微企业信保易专项保险和进口信用保险。 

Reporter the interview some experts say,Includes adjustable high export tax rebate/Improve the trade facilitation level policy may soon be born.It is understood,Guangdong finance this year will arrange more than 100 million yuan credit insurance of a special support fund,Used to support enterprise for short-term export credit insurance/Small micro enterprise believe the easy special insurance and import credit insurance. 

  高凌云认为,影响出口的因素主要包括外需、竞争力、内需、宏观经济规模四个方面,目前我们比较侧重外需和竞争力,包括提高通关便利的举措也是为了提升出口竞争力,事实上政策空间还很大。 

GaoLing cloud think,The main factors affect export including overseas market demand/competitiveness/Domestic demand/The macro economic scale four aspects,At present we compare emphasis on overseas market demand and competitiveness,Including improve customs clearance convenient measures is to promote export competitiveness,In fact policy space is very big still. 

  对于后期外贸走势,罗文波认为,在欧洲经济持续下行的情况下,我国第四季度外贸能否出现转机,关键要看美国的经济复苏状况。目前美国经济整体出现上升态势,但是美国想实现制造业“内转”,导致其经济增长对进口产品的弹性下降。 

For foreign trade trend of late,LuoWenBo think,In the European economic continuous descending cases,Our country foreign trade can turn in the fourth quarter,The key to see America's economic recovery status.The U.S. economy in the whole rise,But the United States want to achieve manufacturing"adduction",Lead to its economic growth for imports decreased elasticity. 



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