2013年稳健的货币政策将进一步向“宽松”方向微调；引导信贷平稳适度增长，保持合理的社会融资规模；进一步优化信贷结构，加强准备金率调整与公开市场操作的配合；择机再次小幅降息，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

The steady monetary policy will further to 2013"loose"The direction of fine-tuning;Moderate steady to guide credit growth,Keep reasonable social financing scale;Further optimize credit structure,Strengthen the reserve rate adjustment and open market operations;Another small at the opportune time to cut interest rates,Keep the RMB exchange rate in a reasonable and balanced level basically stable.

　　2013年金融调控要继续处理好速度、结构和物价的关系，把“稳增长”放在更加重要的位置，对“控通胀”仍不可掉以轻心，在统筹考虑“稳增长”和“控通胀”的同时，适度加快“调结构”步伐。要继续实施稳健的货币政策，通过在“宽松”方向的预调微调，防止短期内经济增长过度滑坡。

Financial regulation in 2013 will continue to deal with speed/The relationship between the structure and prices,the"Steady growth"Put on more important position,to"Controlling inflation"Still cannot treat STH lightly,In the overall consideration"Steady growth"and"Controlling inflation"At the same time,Moderate speed up"The structure of the"pace.Will continue to implement prudent monetary policy,Through the"loose"The direction of the preset fine-tuning,To prevent excessive landslide of economic growth in the short term.

　　1.稳健的货币政策坚持“稳中求进”，进一步向“宽松”方向微调。

1. The steady monetary policy"WenZhongQiuJin",Further to"loose"The direction of fine-tuning.

　　2013年的货币政策将坚持“稳中求进”的基调，坚持预调微调和“有保有压”，防止超调和“一刀切”，注意把握好度，增强操作的灵活性。货币政策在“宽松”力度选择上需平衡经济增长与物价的关系，通过适度降息、降准备金率、与监管政策相协调推动银行合理放贷等措施来保持需求稳定增长，防范企业与居民形成悲观和紧缩预期。

In 2013, the monetary policy will insist on"WenZhongQiuJin"The tone of,Adhere to the preset fine-tuning and"There are different",Prevent overshoot and"One size fits all",Pay attention to hold good degrees,To enhance the flexibility of operation.Monetary policy in the"loose"Efforts to choose the need to balance the relationship between economic growth and price,Through the appropriate cut interest rates/Drop ratio/Coordinated with supervision policies boost demand reasonable bank lending and other measures to maintain steady growth,To prevent enterprises and residents formation of pessimism and deflation is expected.

　　经济结构性矛盾制约总量宽松政策效果发挥，货币政策在“宽松”方式上则需兼顾总量与结构两方面。货币政策在实现总量“宽松”时，要坚持“有保有压”的差异化原则，通过信贷政策和差别存款准备金率政策来引导商业银行加大对关键行业、关键领域的资金支持。

Economic structural contradictions restricting total loose policy effect,Monetary policy in the"loose"Way is to give consideration to the total amount and structure from two aspects.Monetary policy in the total amount"loose"when,Must adhere to"There are different"The differentiation principle,Through credit policy and the difference between the deposit reserve rate policy to guide commercial Banks increase in key industries/Key areas of financial support.

　　2.引导货币信贷平稳适度增长，保持合理的社会融资规模。

2. Lead moderate steady money and credit growth,Keep reasonable social financing scale.

　　虽然2012年M2增速为历史低水平，但M2存量已经突破92万亿元。我国货币化进程已接近尾声，畸高的货币化率（M2/GDP）缺乏进一步提升的空间，货币存量如果进一步快速攀升会加剧潜在的通胀压力。

Although 2012 M2 growth for historical low level,But M2 stock has already exceeded 92 trillion yuan.China's currency process has been near the end,Capitalization of excessively high rate(M2 / GDP)Lack of further ascension of space,Monetary stock if further rapidly exacerbate the potential inflationary pressures.

　　我们认为，2013年M2增长13%-14%较为适度，可以在保持相对宽松的资金环境的同时，防范通胀风险累积和反弹。对社会流动性闸门的控制需从“社会融资总量”角度加以把握。预计2012年新增人民币贷款近8.5万亿元，社会融资规模可突破15万亿元，2013年社会融资规模与人民币贷款增加规模应与上年基本持平。

We think that,2013 M2 growth rate of 13% - 14% is more appropriate,Can maintain relatively loose money environment at the same time,Guard against inflation risk accumulation and rebound.For social mobility control from the gate"Social financing amount"Angle to grasp.RMB loan nearly in 2012 is expected to increase by RMB 2012 yuan,Social financing scale can break through 15 trillion yuan,Increased social financing scale and 2013 RMB loan size should be same with the previous year.

　　3.加强信贷对实体经济的支持，进一步优化信贷结构。

3. To strengthen the credit support for the real economy,Further optimize credit structure.

　　信贷投放要进一步加强对实体经济的支持力度，适度放宽贷款额度、存贷比等行政性控制，支持信贷合理增长。充分发挥信贷政策的结构性作用，落实“有保有压”。

Credit to further strengthen the support of the real economy,Moderately relaxed loans/Loan ratio of administrative control,Support credit reasonable growth.Give full play to the structural function of credit policy,To carry out"There are different".

　　具体而言，要加大对“三农”和小微企业的信贷支持，加大对事关全局、带动性强的重大项目和战略性新兴产业、节能环保、文化传媒、现代服务业、高端制造业、自主创新、农田水利建设等的支持，保证政府在建项目和重点项目建设的资金需求，充分满足居民家庭首套真实自住购房需求，重点支持以省级平台为主开展的公租房、廉租房、棚改房等三类保障房建设，支持中低价位、中小套型普通商品房建设，坚决抑制投机投资性购房需求,严格控制对高耗能、高排放行业和产能过剩行业的贷款。

specifically,To increase the"Agriculture, rural areas and farmers"And small micro enterprise credit support,Intensify the is global/DaiDongXing of major projects and strategic emerging industries/Energy conservation and environmental protection/Culture media/Modern service industry/Advanced manufacturing/The independent innovation/The support of farmland water conservancy construction, etc,Ensure that government construction projects and key projects of the construction of the capital demand,Fully meet households in the first set of real self living pent-up demand,Key support is given priority to with the platform at the provincial level in the rent/Low-rent houses/PengGai room and so on three types of security housing construction,Support in low price/Small and medium model ordinary commercial housing construction,Resolutely curb speculative investment pent-up demand,Strict control of production/High emission industries and industries with excess production capacity of the loan.

　　4.加强准备金率调整与公开市场操作的配合，保持银行体系流动性平稳。

(4) strengthen the reserve rate adjustment and open market operations,Keep the banking system liquidity.

　　根据外汇占款增长情况，加强法定存款准备金率与公开市场操作的配合，保持银行体系流动性平稳。当前大型金融机构存款准备金率为20%，处于历史较高水平，有较大的下调空间。

According to the foreign exchange gap growth situation,Strengthen the legal deposit reserve rate and open market operations,Keep the banking system liquidity.The current large financial institutions deposit reserve rate of 20%,A higher level in history,A larger cut space.

　　鉴于过高的法定存款准备金率将导致货币乘数过低，不利于货币信贷的增长，需要通过逐步下调存款准备金率来放松货币乘数，保证货币信贷规模合理增长。公开市场操作需兼顾外汇占款变化、市场资金需求变动、短期特殊因素等方面的需要，并与准备金率调整灵活搭配。准备金率下调可与开展正回购同时进行，在不引起市场利率上行的情况下调整到期资金结构。准备金率不动时则通过适度开展逆回购调节短期流动性，引导市场利率平稳运行。

In view of high legal deposit reserve rate will lead to low monetary multiplier,Detrimental to the growth of monetary credit,Need to cut the deposit reserve rate step by step to relax monetary multiplier,Ensure reasonable scale of money and credit growth.Open market operations to give consideration to the foreign exchange gap change/Capital market demand changes/The needs of the short-term special factors,And reserve rate adjustment agile collocation.Reserve rate cut to carry out positive repurchase simultaneously,In does not cause market interest rates upward adjustment due under the condition of capital structure.Reserve rate fixed when out through inverse repurchase adjust short-term liquidity,Guide the market interest rates running smoothly.

　　5.择机再次小幅降息，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

5. Small cut interest rates again at the opportune time,Keep the RMB exchange rate in a reasonable and balanced level basically stable.

　　目前，一年期存款基准利率为3%，金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限为基准利率的1.1倍，一年期存款利率最高可达3.3%。预计2013年CPI涨幅在3%左右，温和的物价涨幅为进一步降息提供了空间。未来可择机再次小幅降息，以“切实降低实体经济发展的融资成本”，改善企业盈利预期。

At present,,Benchmark one-year deposit interest rate of 3%,Financial institutions deposit rate floating interval of upper limit of 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate,The benchmark one-year deposit interest rate up to 3.3%.Due to the CPI increase of around 3% in 2013,Moderate prices or providing a space for further rate cuts.Can the small cut interest rates again in the future,In order to"To reduce the financing cost of entity economy development",Improve enterprise profit expectations.

　　目前人民币对美元汇率双向波动的预期加强。受欧债危机发展与美联储量化宽松政策推进的影响，预计2013年美元仍将保持区间震荡。应充分利用“美元区间震荡，人民币汇率双向预期加强”的机会，切实增强人民币对美元汇率双向浮动弹性，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

At present the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar two-way expected to strengthen.By the European debt crisis and the fed's quantitative easing to promote,Is expected to 2013 us dollars will remain interval concussion.Should make full use of"$interval concussion,Strengthen two-way exchange rate of RMB"The opportunity to,Strengthen the flexibility bi-directional floating exchange rate between us dollars and RMB,Keep the RMB exchange rate in a reasonable and balanced level basically stable.