滕泰

TengTai

　　[ 新供给主义的政策主张不仅包括减税、破除垄断、反对管制、市场化、民营化等传统供给主义的内容，而且还有新供给创造新需求，抛弃硬财富战略、选择软财富战略等国家战略选择 ]

[new supply of policies not only includes tax cuts/Break the monopoly/Opposed to control/The market/Privatization, such as traditional supply the content of the socialism,And there are new supply to create new demand,Abandon hard wealth strategy/Choose soft strategy of wealth, and other countries strategic choice]

　　中国经济在基建投资拉动、企业补库存等因素的作用下开始的短期反弹至少能持续到2013年中期。之后，有没有中长期接力棒？中国经济会不会再次掉头向下？

China's economy during the capital investment/Enterprise for inventory under the effect of factors such as the start of the short-term rebound will continue at least until the middle of 2013.after,Do you have any long-term baton?China's economy will turn down again?

　　金融抑制能否有效缓解？

Can effectively relieve financial repression?

　　信贷、股市、房地产三股力量构成的金融扩张与伸缩，是决定中期经济走势的一个基本动力。

The credit/The stock market/Real estate financial expansion and expansion in the composition of three forces,Is in the middle of the economic situation of a basic motive force.

　　目前来看，信贷仍然处于一个相对比较偏紧的阶段。无论是对滥发货币批评的顾虑、对通货膨胀的过度担忧，还是货币学派的思想误导，都将让中央银行在2013年保持对货币和信贷的谨慎控制。而中国经济的历次经济上升周期，没有一次是在信贷不扩张的背景下出现的。信贷不扩张，中国经济的发展将继续受到抑制。

So far,Credit is still a relatively tight.Both for spamming currency of criticism/Excessive worries of inflation,Or money school of thought,Will keep the central bank in 2013, the careful control of money and credit.And the various economic rise of China's economy cycle,No one is in the credit expansion under the background of the emergence of.Credit expansion,The development of China's economy will continue to be restrained.

　　2013年的中国股市，也许能够带给中国一份小小的惊喜。而股市的上涨，既能够刺激消费，也能够刺激投资。然而，由于中国决策层都受到传统政治经济学的影响，对股市不但并不重视，而且存在较大偏见，因此期望很大的行情也不现实。

China's stock market in 2013,China might be able to bring a little surprise.And the rise of the stock market,Not only can stimulate the consumption,Can also stimulate investment.However,,Because China's decision-making are affected by the traditional political economics,Not only to the stock market does not pay attention to,And there is a big bias,So expect a lot of market is not reality.

　　由于政府继续把高房价当成社会问题来看待，并保持房价调控不动摇，因此考虑房地产或其他资产市场的扩张来带动经济也是不可能的。

Because the government continued to put the high housing prices as a social problem,And keep the house price control not be moved,So consider real estate or other asset to promote the expansion of the market economy is impossible.

　　无论从政府、企业和居民的储蓄总额来看，还是人们谈论的M2总量来看，中国的货币供应总量并不少，然而20%的法定存款准备金率，以及信贷额度、贷存比等多重紧箍限制，让中国成为全球资金最稀缺的国家。如果中央银行、商业银行系统不能提供足够的货币流动性，股市、房地产市场又不能创造货币，中国的绝大部分金融资源就仍然处于被抑制的状态。预计，2013年中国的实际利率仍然会保持在较高水平，中小企业能够得到贷款的实际利率在10%以上，甚至20%以上，高利贷泛滥情况仍将普遍存在。

No matter from the government/Enterprises and residents' total savings,Or people talk about amount of M2,China's total money supply and many,However, 20% of the legal deposit reserve rate,And the credit limit/DaiCunBi multiple tight hoop,Let China become the world's most scarce funds.If the central bank/Commercial banking system does not provide enough money flow,The stock market/The real estate market cannot create money again,Most of China's financial resources is still in a state of suppressed.Due to,In 2013 China's real interest rates will remain at a higher level,Small and medium-sized enterprises can get the actual interest rate above 10% of the loan,Even more than 20%,Usury flood situation will still exists.

　　好在中央经济工作会议已经提出要切实降低实体经济的融资成本，无论是金融自由化，还是货币政策放松，任何能够改变金融抑制的政策都可以成为中国短期经济反弹的接力棒，中国经济的潜在增长率远远没有发挥出来。

In the central economic work conference has put forward we need to reduce the financing cost of real economy,Whether it is financial liberalization,Or to relax monetary policy,Any can change the financial repression policy can become China the baton of short-term economic rebound,The potential growth rate of China's economy is far from.

　　产能过剩vs通胀起步

Excess capacity vs inflation starts

　　2012年年底的月度CPI刚刚轻微反弹，就已经有人说物价拐点，甚至担心通胀。事实上，2013年的通货膨胀并非主要矛盾，预计全年CPI不会超过3.5%。

The monthly CPI just a slight rebound at the end of 2012,Have some people say that the price inflection point,Even worry about inflation.As a matter of fact,2013 years of inflation is not the main contradiction,The year CPI is expected to not more than 3.5%.

　　由食品，尤其是猪肉价格主导的中国式CPI可能在2013年的中期明显上升，并在2014年中期达到一个阶段性高点。

By food,Especially pork prices leading Chinese CPI may be increased in the middle of 2013,And in 2014 the middle reach a stage high.

　　由原材料价格变化影响的CPI波动因素在2013年可以忽略不计。且不论欧美经济低迷抑制原油、矿石等原材料价格上涨。即便由于全球货币泛滥等因素真的有阶段性原材料价格上涨，其对中国物价的影响也是微乎其微的。比如：由于从石油到下游化工制造业之间的漫长产业链包含很多厂商和生产环节，所以原油价格的上涨会被数十个厂商分摊消化，所以每个厂商只要稍微提高一点劳动生产率就可以保持产品不涨价或少涨价。

By the CPI fluctuations in raw material price changes affect factors in 2013 can be neglected.And regardless of Europe and the United States economic downturn inhibition of crude oil/Ore and other raw materials prices.Even as global monetary factors such as flood really have some raw material rises in price,Its impact on China's price is negligible.Such as:Due to downstream from petroleum chemical industry between the long chain contains a lot of manufacturers and production,So the rise in crude oil prices would be dozens of manufacturers share digestion,So each manufacturer as long as a little to improve the labor productivity can keep the price of product is not or less price.

　　值得注意的是，中国的制造业劳动力价格仍然以每年10%左右的速度稳步上涨。与原材料的成本可以分摊到整个产业链不同，每个企业都必须独自承担雇员的工资成本，因此劳动力价格上升对物价的冲击相当于上游原材料价格影响的10倍。我们测算得出未来几年中国劳动力成本的趋势性上涨每年将贡献约2%的CPI 增速——在这种背景下，低于或接近2%的CPI 水平，反过来说明整个经济处于需求不足或产能过剩的巨大压力之下。

It is important to note that,China's manufacturing industry labor price still steadily rising at an annual rate of 10%.And the cost of raw materials can be spread to the whole industry chain,Each enterprise must bear the employee wage costs alone,Therefore labor prices on the impact of the price is equivalent to 10 times the influence of the upstream raw material prices.We calculate that the next few years China's labor costs rising trend will contribute about 2% of the CPI growth each year - in this context,Less than or close to 2% of the CPI level,In turn, that the economy is in demand or under the great pressure of excess capacity.

　　事实上，中国目前应该担心的显然不是通货膨胀，而是产能过剩和需求不足。钢铁、汽车、水泥、煤炭、化工、低端电子消费品等领域的严重产能过剩局面正在日益显现。如果资金成本进一步提高，企业盈利能力进一步下滑，转型和就业的压力就会显著增加。

As a matter of fact,China should worry about is obviously not inflation,But the excess capacity and insufficient demand.The iron and steel/The car/cement/coal/Chemical industry/Low-end consumer electronics and other fields of serious excess capacity situation appeared increasingly.If the cost of capital,Enterprise profitability decline further,Transformation and the pressure of employment would be significantly increased.

　　城镇化的“远水近渴”

The urbanization of the"Far water close thirsty"

　　长期而言，中国经济的潜力在于城镇化，这个判断毫无疑问是正确的。

In the long run,The potential of China's economy is in the urbanization,This judgment there is no doubt that is correct.

　　中国城市人均GDP产出是农村人均GDP产出的5倍以上。这就是说，一个人如果成功地从农村转移到城市就业，它对经济的贡献会增加近5倍。因此城镇化的主要经济增长潜力来自于城镇化过程中的劳动生产率提高。当然，其前提是就业——如果没有足够的就业岗位创造出来，所有城镇化的问题都将演变为“中等收入陷阱”的问题。

China's urban per capita GDP output is more than five times as much as rural per capita GDP output.That is to say,If a person successfully transfer from rural to urban employment,It's contribution to the economy increases nearly 5 times.So the urbanization of the main economic growth potential from the labor productivity in the process of urbanization.Of course,,The premise is employment, if don't have enough jobs created,All the problems will be evolution of the urbanization"Middle-income trap"The problem of.

　　比如，新城镇化既不能靠房地产解决就业，也不能靠过度工业化解决就业，那么如果推动经济结构转型并稳定扩大就业？

Such as,New urbanization can not rely on solving the employment of the real estate,Can't rely on over industrialized solving the employment,So if promote economic structure transformation and expand employment?

　　又比如，随着城镇化率的提高，金融危机的潜在影响将逐步扩大。当七八亿人在农村的时候，他们可以在发生金融危机时回归农村；若十亿人口在城市，任何一次金融危机都可以成为社会不稳定因素。

Again for instance,With the improvement of urbanization rate,The potential impact of the financial crisis will gradually expand.When 7.8 billion people in rural areas,They can return to the countryside during the financial crisis;If the population in the city,Any financial crisis can become social unstable factors.

　　还有，城镇化过程中的贫富差距进一步扩大问题，会不会形成大规模贫民窟问题，以及新城市人口他们的社会保障、养老、保险、健康医疗、子女等问题，城市基础设施承载问题，等等。

There are,The gap between rich and poor in the process of urbanization further problems,Will a large slum problem,And new urban population of their social security/Provide for the aged/insurance/Health care/Children, etc,Urban infrastructure bearing problem,And so on.

　　显然，城镇化虽然孕育着巨大的潜力，但最好保持现有的节奏，不要人为加速，更不可一哄而起。每年1%的新人口城市化率难道还不够吗？ 长远潜力可以用来鼓舞信心，但是并不能转化为短期的增长动力。

obviously,Urbanization although pregnant with huge potential,But it's better to keep the existing rhythm,Don't people to speed up,More is not a fool.Every year 1% of new population urbanization rate is not enough? Long-term potential can be used to inspire confidence,But it cannot be converted into short-term growth.

　　从新供给主义到软财富战略

New supply to soft wealth strategy

　　2013年全球经济形势依然没有总体好转，其中，美国在没有新一轮产业革命的背景下，经济难有大的起色，但也不会出现大的下滑，全年增速将在2%左右；欧洲经济的持续衰退又与债务国的偿债能力形成恶性循环，家庭和政府部门去杠杆决定了2013年欧洲经济依然难以走出泥潭；中日钓鱼岛争端以后，日本经济更加雪上加霜，预计2013年经济增速将下滑至1%以下。

In 2013 the global economic situation is still not improved as a whole,Among them,In the United States not under the background of a new round of industrial revolution,Economy it is difficult to have big improvement,But also won't appear the big decline,Annual growth to around 2%;European sustained economic recession and debtor the solvency of a vicious cycle,Family and government departments to leverage determines the European economy in 2013 is still hard to out of the mire;Between the diaoyu island,Japan's economy,Economic growth in 2013 is expected to drop to below 1%.

　　中国贸易顺差逐步收窄，外贸对经济的贡献将继续为负，总需求必然更多依靠内需，而内需在金融抑制、产能过剩、举国通胀恐惧症的背景下又如何扩张呢？

China's trade surplus narrowed gradually,Foreign trade's contribution to the economy will continue to be negative,Aggregate demand will be more rely on domestic demand,While domestic demand in financial repression/Excess capacity/National inflation under the background of phobia how expansion?

　　在凯恩斯主义需求刺激已经走到死胡同，同时货币主义造成金融抑制的大背景下，中国的未来经济政策着力点必将转向供给面。十八大以后的中国经济政策除了新供给主义之外，别无选择。而新供给主义的政策主张不仅包括减税、破除垄断、反对管制、市场化、民营化等传统供给主义的内容，而且还有新供给创造新需求，抛弃硬财富战略、选择软财富战略等国家战略选择。中国经济的转型与改革必将选择新供给主义和软财富战略。

In the Keynesian demand stimulus has come to a dead end,At the same time background of monetarism caused financial repression,China's future economic policy focus will be to supply.After eighteen big except new supply principle of China's economic policy,Have no choice but to.But the new supply policy, not only including tax cuts/Break the monopoly/Opposed to control/The market/Privatization, such as traditional supply the content of the socialism,And there are new supply to create new demand,Abandon hard wealth strategy/Choose soft wealth strategic choice strategy, etc.The transformation of China's economy and reform will choose new supply and soft wealth strategy.