展望2013年中国资本市场的机遇与挑战，不妨从国内外经济、财政货币政策、流动性以及信贷/资产等维度加以综合考虑。

Looking forward to opportunities and challenges of China's capital market in 2013,Might as well from the domestic and foreign economy/Financial monetary policy/By synthetically considering all kinds of liquidity and credit/assets, such as dimensions.

　　首先，从全球经济发展来看，虽然欧债危机远未结束，但已经过去的2012年告诉我们，正是美国经济的复苏使得全球经济处于相对稳定之中，因此，2013年美国经济也依然将是全球经济的“晴雨表”。尽管短期来看美国“财政悬崖”危机尚未彻底平复，但以页岩气为代表的美国科技优势在未来将实现能源自给，以3D打印为代表美国先进制造业正在重整旗鼓，以Facdbook为代表的社交媒体的快速发展则预示了社交媒体有望成为未来服务可交易化的重要载体，这同样意味着2013年美国经济整体无虞，全球经济出现“黑天鹅”的概率不大。特别是在美、英、日等央行纷纷宽松的背景下，近期国际黄金市场价格却快速下跌并创近4个月新低，这很有可能意味着，全球经济在众央行的刺激下已经开始恢复活力，股市和债券的时代即将来临，黄金有望谢幕。2013年，全球市场最大的“风险”很有可能是美元的加速升值，对投资者而言，过去8年来各大类资产之间的高度关联性格局有望发生变化，这对于专注某一类资产的投资者来说是一件好事，因为他们不用担心来自外部力量的干扰。

In the first place,From the global economic development,Although the European debt crisis is far from over,But tell us in the past 2012 years,It is America's economy makes the recovery of the global economy is in relatively stable,so,In 2013 the U.S. economy is still will be the global economy"barometer".Although in the short term the United States"Fiscal cliff"Crisis has not yet been thoroughly removes,But the science and technology advantages of shale gas as a representative of the United States in the future will be self-sufficient in energy,Advanced manufacturing industry in the United States are represented by 3 d print comeback,With Facdbook as a representative of the rapid development of social media is that social media is expected to become the future service can trade an important carrier of the,This also means that the U.S. economy in 2013 maximum overall,The global economy"Black swan"There is little probability of.Especially in the United States/The English/Under the background of, such as the central bank are loose,Recent international gold market price is falling fast and then nearly four months,It could mean a lot,Global economy under the stimulation of the central bank has begun to restore vitality,The stock market and bond era is coming,Gold is expected to curtain call.In 2013,,One of the biggest global market"The risk"Most likely faster appreciation of the dollar,For investors,Over the past eight years the pattern of the height of the connection between categories of assets is expected to change,It focus on one kind of assets for investors is a good thing,Because they don't have to worry about from the interference of external forces.

　　伴随外围市场的好转，2013年的国内宏观经济环境要好于2012年，同样使得已经企稳回升的国内经济在今年一季度期间继续保持着稳定的态势，加之受基数效应影响，通货膨胀虽已在去年末见底，但今年反弹的空间并不大，全年保持温和反弹走势的概率较高，这也决定了全年中国经济整体要好于去年。考虑到上市公司盈利往往会滞后经济企稳一季度左右，故而今年一季度的A股市场将处于经济企稳与盈利复苏“共振”的预期之中，至少展开“半波”行情的可能性较大。

With the improvement of the peripheral market,In 2013 domestic macroeconomic environment better in 2012,Also makes has rebounded stabilising the domestic economy during the first quarter of this year to maintain the stability of the situation,In addition to the base effect,Though inflation has set up a file in the proceedings,But this year the rebound of the space is not big,For a moderate rebound trend of higher probability,It also determines the year China's economy as a whole better than last year.Considering profits of listed companies tend to lag behind economic stabilising around in the first quarter,So in the first quarter of this year's a-share market will be the economy stabilises and profit recovery"resonance"The expected,At least on"Half wave"The possibility of an option.

　　其次，从管理层政策预期考虑，今年“两会”过后，宏观经济各部门的人事调整将基本就绪，这也意味着自二季度起我国宏观经济政策将正式进入新一轮周期。从已经结束的中央经济工作会议对今年经济的定调以及周小川行长最新的言论来看，保持货币政策的稳健适中以及继续实施“保增长”政策会对年内的资本市场形成一定的正面政策预期。同时，新一届管理层对于城镇化的发展格外重视，也意味着受益于“城镇化”的产业链将会得到进一步的发展推动和政策上的扶植。因此，对于A股市场的投资者而言，城镇化有望成为全年重要的主题性投资主题，对于一季度的水泥、化工、农业等行业板块来说，估值偏低也有望使得这些行业对资金的吸引力开始增强。

The second,From management policy is expected to consider,This year"CPPCC"After the,Macro economic departments of personnel adjustment will be basically in place,It also means that China's macro economic policy since the second quarter will be officially entered a new round of cycle.From already the end of the central economic work conference of this year's economic labeling and zhou xiaochuan, the latest comments,Keep the steady moderate and continue to implement monetary policy"The growth"Policy for years of capital market formation must be positive policy expectations.At the same time,The new management attention to the development of urbanization,Also means that benefit from"urbanization"The industry chain will be further development and the government policy.so,For investors in a-share market,Urbanization is expected to become important thematic investment theme throughout the year,For the quarter of the cement/Chemical industry/Agricultural industries sector,Low valuation is expected to make these industries to the attraction of the capital began to strengthen.

　　另一方面，今年是“十八大”提出的“双翻番”目标的开局之年，中央及各级政府为落实居民增长将推出一系列措施，因此财政政策为“双翻番”目标进行政策托底的取向将较为明显，加大对“民生”的补贴将是大概率事件。对于消费类行业来说，这些政策带来的利好有望在今年三季度起有所体现。

On the other hand,This year is"The eighteenth big"The proposed"Double double"Target of the start of the year,Central and governments at all levels to implement the residents growth will launch a series of measures,So for fiscal policy"Double double"Target of policy TuoDe orientation will be more obvious,To increase"The people's livelihood"Subsidies will be a big probability event.For consumer industries,These policies of good is expected in the third quarter this year.

　　再次，展望今年的债券市场及货币市场，虽然今年债市缺乏2012年所特有的“低基数”基础，但在经济企稳回升、物价压力不大、市场流动性相对宽松以及全球低利率情绪的推动下依然具有稳健的受益预期，全年债券市场保持“平衡市”的可能性较大。这也表明，虽然2013年债券市场获取资本利得的难度较2012年更大，但取得稳定的票息会是主流投资机构的基本投资策略，而对于固定收益领域“高收益”的追逐，诸如中低评级的城投债市场将依然不乏机遇。货币市场方面，考虑到利率市场化大背景的前提保持不变，市场资金利率很难回到过去人为被压低的市场情况之下，货币基金等领域依然具有较好的收益预期。对于投资者而言，选择货币市场基金不失为接触和体验资本市场的重要进入渠道。

Once again,,Looking forward to this year's bond market and monetary market,Although this peculiar to the lack of bond market in 2012"Low base"basis,But in the economy stabilises/The price pressure is not big/Market liquidity relatively loose and low global interest rates are still driven by emotions of benefit expectations,Bond market remain all the year round"Balance of the city"The possibility of a larger.It also shows that,Although bond market in 2013 for the difficulty of the capital gains in 2012,But get stable interest will be the mainstream investment institutions of the basic investment strategy,For fixed income"High yield"The chase,Such as low rating for the city of debt market will still thering is no lack of opportunities.Currency markets,Considering the premise of interest rate marketization background remain unchanged,Money market interest rates is difficult to return to the past is low under market conditions,Monetary fund, and other fields still has good yields.For investors,Choose monetary market fund is contact and experience the importance of the capital market into the channel.

　　整体而言，展望2013年的中国资本市场，具有不同风险收益偏好的产品因宏观经济环境的改善而均有望取得良好收益预期。相比2012年，资本市场有望取得好于经济的表现。

As a whole,Outlook 2013 years of China's capital market,Products with different risk preference income due to the improvement of the macroeconomic environment is expected to achieve good earnings expectations.Compared with 2012,Capital market is expected to achieve better than economic performance.