去年股基前三甲 今年排名跌出200名 Last year, stock base before this year dropped out of the top ranked 200

　　岁末年初，基金业绩排行榜新鲜出炉，业绩靠前的公司又开始拿排名说事，大肆推销自己的明星基金。而基民也已习惯眼望银行网点的业绩排行榜、手握基金评级，追逐“明星”基金。但据测算，最近5年，基民“追星”，次年该明星基金产品排名同类基金前1/3的概率平均只有31.55%。

At the beginning of this,Fund performance charts are fresh,The front of the performance of the company and began to speak with rankings,A selling their star fund.And base civilian has habit eyes bank outlets performance charts/Hand fund rating,chase"star"fund.But according to the measure,The last five years,Base civilian"Make track for a star",The next year the star fund products similar funds ranked third before the probability of an average of only 31.55%.

　　文/表 本报记者 吴倩

Wen/table WuQian our reporter

　　“看市场不错，买了去年业绩排名在前三的一只股票基金，最近股市涨了这么多，这个基金才赚了不到一个点。简直就是坑爹啊！”有投资者在网上诉苦道。要求一只基金业绩稳坐前排并不现实，但这种“过山车式”的业绩委实让投资者难受。

"Look at the market good,Bought last year performance ranked in the top 3 a stock fund,Recent stock market rise so much,The fund to earn less than a point.It is pit dad...!"Investors have online complaint way.Asked for a fund performance stability is not sit in front of the reality,But this"Rollercoaster ride"Performance really let investors suffered.

　　 华夏大盘 Huaxia plate跑输指数 Run lose index

　　明星基金业绩前后落差如此大重挫投资者并非特例。去年排名前三的标准股票基金在今年开年的市场反弹中排名纷纷滑落。

Star fund performance before and after head so big setback investors is not special case.Last year the top three standard stock funds in this year to open the market rebound in the rankings have slipped.

　　根据公开信息，截至本周二，去年股票基金业绩冠亚季军景顺长城核心竞争力、中欧中小盘、新华行业今年以来的净值增长率分别为3.05%、1.46%和0.16%，但在333只可比同类基金中，排名却已分别跌至第225名、第321名和第332名，三者中只有景顺长城核心竞争力跑赢同期沪深300指数。

According to public information,As of Tuesday,Last year, the stock fund performance crown and third place JingShun core competitiveness of the Great Wall/Small central/Xinhua industry since this year the net growth rate was 3.05%/1.46% and 0.16%,But in 333 only comparable similar funds,Ranking has dropped to 225 respectively/The 321th and 332th,Only three of the Great Wall JingShun core competitiveness beat csi 300 index during the same period.

　　没了王亚伟的公募江湖，似已再难寻常胜将军，如今，追逐明星基金华夏大盘和华夏策略的投资者，也饱尝王亚伟离开的苦果。连续多年业绩稳居三甲之后，在2012年的业绩排名中，华夏大盘和华夏策略已跌至中游水平。

Didn't WangYaWei of public offering runescape,Seems to have more difficult to ordinary - general,now,Chase star fund huaxia plate and the strategy of Chinese investors,Also the WangYaWei left a bitter pill.For many years after the performance of the top ranks,In 2012 the performance of the rankings,The Chinese market and Chinese strategy has fallen to the middle level.

　　过去5年 Over the past five years“追星”胜率最高57% "Make track for a star"Losing the highest 57%

　　看排名和评级选基金、追逐明星产品是许多基民最简单的投资方法，这一法则失灵了吗？

See rankings and rating choose funds/Chase star products are many base people the most simple way to invest,The law failure?

　　本报记者的研究结果显示，最近5年，基民“追星”次年该明星产品排名同类基金前1/3的比例依次为25%、57%、33%、4.76%和38%。也就是说，追逐明星基金第二年获胜的概率平均只有31.55%。

Our reporter study shows,The last five years,Base civilian"Make track for a star"The next year the star product in similar funds before a third of the proportion is 25% in turn/57%/33%/4.76% and 38%.that,Chase star fund in the second year the probability of winning an average of only 31.55%.

　　根据同花顺(300033,股吧)iFinD的市场综合评价数据，2007年12月，有4只基金产品的市场综合评级为5分，但到2008年只有银河收益这只债券基金业绩排名挤入同类前1/3，胜率25%。

According to the straight flush(300033,guba)IFinD market comprehensive evaluation data,In December of 2007,There are four fund product market comprehensive rating for 5 minutes,But in the year 2008 only galaxy income this only bond fund performance ranking pile in similar 1/3 before,Losing 25%.

　　2008年底，市场综合评价5只的基金共有7只，包括其时颇负盛名的兴全趋势、中邮核心优选(590001,基金吧)、华夏回报、基金丰和等。2009年，中邮核心优选、基金安顺分别以105.09%、77.62%的收益率排名同行前列，但华夏回报、基金丰和等明星产品排名落到中后，当年胜率57%。

By the end of 2008,Market comprehensive evaluation and the fund only there are 7 only,Including the time of great XingQuan trend/In the core optimization of mail(590001,Fund it)/Huaxia return/Abundant fund and.In 2009,,In the core optimization of mail/Fund anshun respectively by 105.09%/77.62% of the rate of return in the colleague front row,But the Chinese return/Abundant fund and star product ranking in the fall after,The losing 57%.

　　2009年底，6只产品市场综合评级5分，其中有5只为偏股方向基金。进入2010年，只有王亚伟的华夏大盘跻身前十强，当年胜率33%。2010年底，市场综合评级5分的基金多达21只，但其中2011年业绩突出的只有中信稳定双利(288102,基金吧)这一债券基金，华夏红利、嘉实增长、兴全全球视野等备受推崇的基金回报率均居同类后1/3，当年胜率仅4.76%。

By the end of 2009,Only 6 product market comprehensive rating 5 points,There are 5 for partial shares fund direction.In the 2010 years,The only WangYaWei huaxia plate into the top ten,The losing 33%.By the end of 2010,Market comprehensive rating 5 points of fund up to 21 only,But the 2011 performance outstanding only citic stability of the double(288102,Fund it)The bond fund,Huaxia dividend/Fine fruit growth/XingQuan global vision and respected fund returns are similar in after a third,When losing only 4.76%.

　　2011年底则有34只基金获得5分的市场综合评级。其中包括华夏王亚伟、嘉实邵健、兴业全球(340006,基金吧)王晓明、大摩华鑫何滨等众多明星基金经理麾下基金，然而，进入2012年，这34只中业绩排名可跻身前1/3者也只有13只，占比约38%。

By the end of 2011 have 34 fund get 5 points market comprehensive rating.Including the Chinese WangYaWei/Fine fruit ShaoJian/Industrial global(340006,Fund it)WangXiaoMing/Morgan JHNCC HeBin many star fund managers and fund now,however,In the 2012 years,This only 34 in the top one-third performance rankings are only 13 only,Accounts for more than about 38%.

　　投资建议 Investment advice看排名选基金季度业绩更靠谱 See more in picking fund quarterly results by spectrum

　　“风水轮流转”这句话放到明星基金身上再恰当不过。“基金产品的业绩，特别是股票型基金，与基础市场有着非常密切的联系，如果某只产品的投资组合正好是市场的热点，那么这只基金的业绩表现就会非常突出，排名自然会在某段时间之内上升很快。但市场热点变化太快，很难总踩对热点，所以股票基金罕有常胜将军。”有业内人士分析称。

"Geomantic turn by turns"This sentence on the star on fund again appropriate nevertheless."The performance of the fund products,Especially the stock fund,And basic market has very close connection,If a product portfolio is just the hot market,So the fund's performance will be very prominent,Ranking will naturally in a certain period of time rise within soon.But the market hot change too fast,It is difficult to total step to hot,So the stock fund rare ever-victorious generals."Have the personage inside course of study says.

　　“投资者应该根据自己的投资需求合理配置自己的基金投资，而不是简单地追随所谓的年度前十强。”好买基金研究中心分析师曾令华建议，投资基金一是要看自身的风险承受能力。

"Investors should according to their investment demand reasonable allocation of their fund investment,Rather than simply follow the so-called year the top ten."Good buy fund research center CengLingHua analysts suggest,Investment fund is to look at their own risk to bear ability.

　　二是要看基金公司的投资风格，每个基金管理公司都有自己所擅长的风格，有些基金公司风格激进，旗下权益类产品的弹性十足；有些基金公司稳健，虽然不冒尖，但是也不会出现大的亏损。

The second is to see fund company investment style,Each fund management companies have their own good at style,Some fund companies style radical,Its rights products stretch and dye-in-the-wood;Some fund companies robust,Although not MaoJian,But also won't appear big losses.

　　第三，要观察长期业绩，要有持续的盈利能力才行，有些公司一年业绩突出，之后便一蹶不振，这样的公司最好避而远之。

The third,To observe the long-term performance,Want to have continuous profitability to just go,Some companies a year outstanding performance,After they cannot recover after a setback,So the company had better run a mile.

　　对于习惯按排名选基金的投资者，据好买基金研究中心对2005年~2010年基金业绩的研究，基金季度的业绩延续性相对比较好，月度次之，年度的延续性最低。意味着，投资者如果看年度排名来选择基金，选到下一年“绩优基金”的成功率较低。

For those used to choose according to the ranking of fund investors,According to good buy fund research center in 2005 ~ 2010 fund performance research,Fund quarterly performance continuity is relatively good,Monthly times,The continuity of the annual minimum.means,If investors see the annual rankings to select the fund,Choose to the next year"Optimal fund performance"The success rate is low.