货币扩张是过去十年支撑中国经济高速成长的核心元素。每轮宏观调控之际，货币政策都扮演了主要角色。十年之间，前后比照，我们倏然发现，这段时期变化最激烈的恰是货币金融领域。

Monetary expansion is over the past decade support China's rapid economic growth of the core elements.Each round of macroeconomic regulation and control,Monetary policy is to play a major role.Ten years,In before and after,We ShuRan found,This period change the most intense just is monetary and financial fields.

　　央行自2011年开始公布社会融资规模的数据，亦表明中国货币金融环境，再也不是曾经的银行信贷独树一帜。不久前，央行发布的2012年社会融资规模统计数据报告，进一步夯实了中国货币金融环境已经发生变化的论点金融脱媒大势已定，直接融资渐成气候，市场化倒逼金融改革。

Since 2011, the central bank announced social financing scale data,Also shows that China's monetary and financial environment,Is no longer unique once bank credit.Not long ago,The central bank issued 2012 social financing scale statistical data report,Further strengthen China's monetary and financial environment has changed argument financial disintermediation the tide is unlikely,Certailnly direct financing,DaoBi financial marketization reform.

　　十年之前，中国的金融体系高度依赖银行系统，比如，2002年的人民币贷款占据社会融资总量的91%，社会经济几乎悉数被银行信贷控制。但2010年开始，这一比例已经跌破60%，而近两年，这一比例继续下降到2011年的58%和2012年的52%。也就是说，直接融资正在大踏步前进，股票、证券、信托理财、私募基金、民间借贷正成为资金供求双方的主战场，对银行这一媒介体系的依赖性越来越低，他们完全可以通过资金的银行体外循环，实现更高效率的资金对接。这是金融学上典型意义上的“金融脱媒”现象。

Ten years ago,China's financial system is highly dependent on the banking system,Such as,2002 RMB loan occupy 91% of the total social financing,The social economy almost all be bank credit control.But since 2010,This scale has been below 60%,And nearly two years,This proportion continue to drop to 58% in 2011 and 52% in 2012.that,Direct financing is taking great strides forward,stock/securities/Trust financing/Private equity fund/Folk lending is becoming capital supply and demand both sides of the main battlefield,The bank of the media system is more and more low dependence,They can through the capital bank in vitro cycle,Achieve higher efficiency of the capital butt.This is typical in the sense of the finance"Financial disintermediation"phenomenon.

　　金融脱媒在这十年加速演变，与经济大环境密切相关。一来实体经济低迷，很多领域产生资产泡沫，投机性资金需求旺盛。对于投机者而言，快速获得所需资金成为第一需求，哪怕承担高昂的借贷成本。而这显然非银行部门更加得心应手。二来国进民退趋势加剧，国有部门和地方政府成为银行信贷大户，民营企业、普通民众贷款艰难。于是，中国融资系统就分化为两极：既得利益阶层把银行当“取款机”，民间阶层只能诉诸直接融资。三来人民银行在利率市场化改革方面的决心和举措也可圈可点，资本市场扩容规模也成就斐然。

Financial disintermediation in this ten years accelerated evolution,And closely related to the economic environment.As the entity economic downturn,Many fields produce asset bubble,Speculative capital demand.As for speculators,Quickly get the funds required for the became the first demand,Even if take high borrowing costs.But this obviously non-bank department more handy.Two countries people back into increased trend,State department and local government become a large bank credit,Private enterprises/Ordinary people loans difficult.so,China's financing system into the poles:The bank when vested interest class"ATM",Folk class can only resort to direct financing.Three to people's bank of China, the interest rate marketization reform determination and measures also highlights,Capital market scale expansion and brilliant achievements.

　　应该说，这三大因素是造成过去十年，形成金融脱媒大趋势一以贯之的宏观背景。多重力量的敲打，终于撬开了过往铁板一块的银行式金融体系的坚冰。

Should say,These three factors are caused in the past ten years,Form financial disintermediation trend with a penetration of the macro background.Multiple power of the hammer,Finally pry the past a monolithic block bank type financial system of the ice.

　　不过，中国式金融脱媒带有典型的“倒逼”特征，主动的金融改革痕迹并不明显。比如，在成熟经济体占据主导的股票和债券融资，在社会融资规模中的比例依然不高。层层的制度障碍和行政烙印，导致资本市场发展缓慢，结构性矛盾沉疴遍地。

but,Chinese financial disintermediation with typical"DaoBi"characteristics,Active financial reform trace is not obvious.Such as,In mature economies occupy the leading stock and bond financing,In social financing scale the proportion is still not high.Layer upon layer the system barrier and administrative brand,Lead to capital market development is slow,Structural contradictions severe and lingering illness the land.

　　以公司债为例，这本是为中小企业融资的上佳途径，但是相对于国债和金融债，发展则是十分缓慢。自从2004年《中国投融资体制改革的决定》发布至今，作为重要的资金筹措手段，近6年来，虽然金融高官、专家学者不断呼吁加快公司债等市场的发展，但是长期停留在口头上的局面一直没有改变。

In corporate bonds as an example,This is for small and medium-sized enterprise financing good way,But relative to the national debt and financial bond,Development is very slow.Since 2004[China's investment and financing system reform decision]Released so far,As an important financing method,Nearly 6 years,Although financial official/Experts and scholars have repeatedly called for speed up the corporate debt and the development of the market,But long stay in the oral situation has not changed.

　　公司债市场不仅仅受到强力的行政管制，发改委独掌审批权，而且在体制上始终难以推进，给以明确的地位认定都是奢望。正如中国社科院副院长李扬直言，“中国公司债市场的问题，主要是体制问题，不是技术问题。”公司债是用市场的手段规避市场风险的得力工具，可让人难以理解的是，用行政管理手段控制风险，却成了有关部门长期不愿抛弃的工作思路。

Corporate debt market not only by the strength of the administrative control,Development and reform commission only palm rights,And in the system always hard to promote,Give clear position determination are expect.As vice President of the Chinese academy of LiYang the truth,"The problem of Chinese corporate debt market,The main problem is system,Is not a technical problem."Corporate debt is to use market means to avoid market risks right tools,Can let a person is difficult to understand,Use administrative means to control risk,Relevant departments have become long-term is not willing to abandon the work mentality.

　　最近两年，发展最为凶猛的则是高风险系数的信托市场。截至去年底，信托市场总规模已经突破7万亿元，超过了国内第二大金融机构保险业6.9万亿元的规模。而且，从央行公布的数据来看，去年信托贷款增幅最猛，从2011年的占比1.6%蹿升至8.2%，2012年全年新增额为2011年的近6倍。可以料见，信托融资是近两年金融脱媒加速的重要力量。信托业从来就是利益纵横交错、三角债、多角债最为集中的行当，如此高速的爆发，俨然开始为中国式金融脱媒拉响警钟。

Over the past two years,Development is the most fierce is high risk factor of the trust of the market.By the end of last year,Trust total market scale has topped 7 trillion yuan,More than the country's second largest financial institutions insurance 6.9 trillion yuan scale.and,From the central bank figures,Last year the trust loan growth is the most fierce,From 2011 accounted for more than 1.6% to 8.2% up,In the whole year of 2012 to 2011 XinZengE nearly six times.Can see material,The trust financing is nearly two years financial disintermediation accelerated important strength.Never trust industry is interests crisscross/Chain debts/Polygonal debt the most concentrated work,Such high outbreak,Seemed to Chinese financial disintermediation sound the alarm bell.

　　超常规的金融脱媒速度，也加剧了银行信贷扩张的速度。随着人民币贷款占比的下降，银行系统只能是总量上大做文章。表面上看，有了非银部门的扩张，最近几年银行信贷屡屡创出天量，可与非银行融资系统的扩张相比，似乎并不值得大惊小怪。但是，一个典型的事实是2008年之后的信贷扩张，确实超出了实体经济正常需求，不良资产卷土重来的担忧开始涌现。远超警戒线的信贷GDP比、近百万亿广义货币M2，都在高度警示银行信贷，切不可与非银行部门的扩张“竞赛”。

Special financial disintermediation speed,Also aggravate the bank credit expansion speed.As for the RMB loans than down,The banking system is only on the big fuss about the total amount.On the surface,Had not the expansion of silver department,In recent years the bank credit repeatedly making day quantity,But with the expansion of non-bank finance system compared,Doesn't seem worth a storm in a teacup.but,A typical fact is 2008 years after the credit expansion,Really beyond the normal demand entity economy,Bad assets back worries have begun to emerge.Far beyond the line of credit than GDP/Trillions of nearly M2,In highly alert bank credit,Must not and other departments of the expansion"competition".

　　所以，必须明了两点：金融脱媒趋势固然可喜，但隐藏的风险巨大；不可因非银行融资高速扩张，就以为天量信贷十分合理。稳固金融脱媒趋势，首要在于控制信托等市场的野蛮生长，规范民间借贷市场，与此同时扫清债券市场和股票市场的制度障碍，大比例提高股票债券在社会融资总额的占比。

so,Must clear two:Financial disintermediation trend is gratifying,But hidden risk huge;Not for non-bank finance rapid expansion,Think day quantity credit is very reasonable.Solid financial disintermediation trend,First is to control the trust markets such as savage growth,Standard folk lending market,At the same time clear the bond market and the stock market system obstacles,Large proportion to improve stock bonds in the society of the total amount of the financing of ratio.

　　真正的金融脱媒，必是以牺牲银行利益为前提的。从发达国家银行的发展史来看，自20世纪80年代以来，随着金融全球化和工程化趋势高速推进，新的各种金融产品不断涌现，证券市场成为欧美经济的主血脉，银行的媒介作用趋于萎缩，银行失去了其融资主导地位，利差收入减少，依靠传统的业务难以维持生存。

The real financial disintermediation,It is to sacrifice the bank interests as the premise.From the developed countries to the developing history of the bank,Since the 1980 s,With the financial globalization and engineering trend high-speed propulsion,New various financial products are constantly emerging,Securities market as Europe and the United States economic main veins,Bank's media role tend to atrophy,The bank lost its financing dominant position,Carry income reduce,Rely on the traditional business difficult to survive.

　　而目前，中国银行(601988,股吧)业的主要盈利长时间依赖存贷差。非利息收入仅占其收入总额的19%左右，而国外银行的非利息收入比例达到35%以上。在中国银行业现有的资产结构中，信贷资产一般占85%左右，利差收入在总收入结构中占90%以上。

And at present,The bank of China(601988,guba)The main industry for a long time savings and profits depend on the poor.Non-interest income accounts for only about 19% of the total income,And foreign bank non-interest income more than 35%.In the China banking existing assets structure,Credit assets generally about 85%,Carry income in the income structure of more than 90%.

　　可以说，当下的金融格局，并不足以支撑健康的金融脱媒，这也是如今中国式金融脱媒矛盾四伏、问题重重的原因。或许，在没有下定决心牺牲银行利益的情况下，中国式金融脱媒注定了是一条更为艰辛、更为曲折的痛苦历程。

Can say,The current financial structure,Is not enough to support healthy financial disintermediation,This is now Chinese financial disintermediation contradiction weakness/Reason in question.maybe,There is no determined to sacrifice the interests of the bank under the situation,Chinese financial disintermediation doomed is a more difficult/More tortuous course of pain.