2012年金融数据悉数出炉，外汇占款增量骤减，外汇储备净减少，外商直接投资（FDI）创下3年新低，人民币双向波动格局形成，这些新的变化蕴含着哪些政策含义？将对中国货币金融环境产生怎样深远的影响？这些都是货币当局面临的重大课题。

In 2012 financial data are,Foreign funding of incremental fell sharply,Foreign currency reserves to reduce net,Foreign direct investment(FDI)Hit a new low for 3 years,The two-way fluctuation pattern formation,These new changes which contains the policy implications?China's monetary and financial environment produce far-reaching impact on how?These are the major issues facing monetary authorities.

　　货币替代现象再度出现 The phenomenon of currency substitute reemergence

　　中国的货币机制正在出现意想不到的变化，在资本流动双向平衡将成常态，资本项目甚至出现逆差的大背景下，基于汇率水平的货币投放机制将根本性改变，这对央行的传统货币政策是新的挑战。其实，这些变化的背后是不同货币的资产转换，也被称为“货币替代”的现象在起作用。资产外币化也即经济学中的“货币替代”。一般来讲，当一国出现较为严重的通货膨胀或一定的汇率贬值预期时，公众可能缺乏对本币稳定的信心，减少持有价值相对较低的本国货币，增加持有价值相对较高的外国货币，于是外币取代本币作为价值贮藏手段和交易媒介。这种“货币替代”的现象曾经在上世纪90年代的中国出现过。

China's currency mechanism is appear unexpected changes,In the capital flow two-way balance will be normal,Capital project appear even deficit background,Based on the level of exchange rate currency on the mechanism will be fundamental change,The central bank's traditional monetary policy is a new challenge.In fact,These changes are behind different monetary assets conversion,Also known as"Currency substitution"Phenomenon in action.Foreign currency assets change namely in economics"Currency substitution".Generally speaking,When a country appear serious inflation or a depreciation of the real exchange rate expectations,The public may lack of local currency stable confidence,Reduce hold value relatively low domestic currency,Increase hold the relatively high value of foreign currency,So the foreign currency to replace local currency as a store of value method and medium of exchange.this"Currency substitution"Once the phenomenon in the 1990 s China appeared.

　　自1994年中国人民币汇率形成机制改革开始，中国“货币替代”程度迅速攀升，直到1997年才有所回落。当时的“货币替代”加剧主要来自于三方面原因：一是由于经济的快速增长使收入大幅度提高，人们有了持有外币资产的愿望；二是当时的汇率双轨制度使人们产生了人民币贬值的预期，为了规避汇率风险，人们更愿意持有较为稳定的外币资产；三是这一时期中国正在经历改革开放以来最严重的通货膨胀，通货膨胀率达到了20%以上，为了避免通胀带来的实际资产的损失，人们更多地选择外币资产。

Since 1994 China RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform began,China"Currency substitution"Level rising rapidly,Until 1997 years before easing.the"Currency substitution"Aggravate mainly from three aspects of reason:Due to the rapid growth of economic income increased significantly,People have the desire of holding foreign currency assets;The second is the exchange rate double track system make people produce the devaluation of RMB expected,In order to avoid exchange rate risk,People are more willing to hold relatively stable foreign currency assets;The third is that China is experiencing a period since the reform and opening up the most serious inflation,Inflation rate reached 20%,In order to avoid inflation brings real assets loss,More people choose foreign currency assets.

　　但此后若干年，这一情况发生了根本改变：随着中国经济的高增长、外汇储备的飙升以及人民币单边升值预期，居民增持本币资产和减持外币资产，导致基础货币过度投放，也造成了近些年来的“货币反替代”问题。

But after years,The situation has been fundamentally changed:Along with China's economic growth/The surge in foreign currency reserves and RMB appreciation of unilateral expected,Residents increasing local currency assets and to reduce their holdings of foreign currency assets,Lead to excessive monetary base on,Also creates in the recent years"Money back substitution"problems.

　　银行存款出现资产外币化 Bank deposits in foreign currency assets change

　　2012年全年，人民币上演了大落大起的走势。上半年，人民币对美元一直处于贬值状态，甚至几度冲击跌停，但人民币即期汇率自10月以来逐步实现从跌停到涨停的强势逆转，并屡次刷新1994年汇改以来的新高。然而，相比人民币如此凌厉的升值态势，其远期汇率却出现背离走势。根据彭博统计数据，2012年11月中旬，一个月期人民币远期汇率贴水0.98%，为2008年12月份以来最大。与此同时，1年期人民币无本金交割远期(NDF)合约价格也持续下跌，虽然近期有所反弹，但仍远低于即期汇率，继续保持贬值预期，于是又演变为“负债本币化、资产外币化”趋势。在银行外币存贷款方面，资产外币化则更加突出。数据显示，仅以2012年前7个月为例，1月、4月及7月人民币存款分别减少8000亿元、4656亿元和5006亿元。而相比之下，2012年前7个月外币存款累计增加2663亿美元，这一增量是2011年同期的12倍之多，尽管2012下半年外币存款开始减少，但2012年年末外币存款余额4065亿美元，同比增长47.8%，全年外币存款增加1314亿美元。

In the whole year of 2012,RMB on a big fall big up trend.In the first half of,The RMB against the us dollar has been in a state of depreciation,Even fall to the impact of degrees,But the spot rate since October has gradually realized from the drop stop to harden the strength of the reversal,And often refresh 1994 change by record high since.however,Compared with RMB so blitz appreciation of the situation,The forward rate appears deviation trend.According to bloomberg statistics data,In the middle of November 2012,A month period the forward rate 0.98% discount,As the largest since December 2008.meanwhile,One-year RMB without principal delivery forward(NDF)Contract price is falling,Although recent bounce,But still far below the spot rate,Continue to depreciate expected,And he turned"Liabilities, according to the change/Change foreign currency assets"trend.In a bank loan in foreign currency,Foreign currency assets change is more outstanding.Data display,Only 2012 years ago seven months as an example,January/April and July 800 billion yuan RMB deposit were reduced/465.6 billion yuan and 500.6 billion yuan.By contrast,2012 years ago seven months accumulated foreign currency deposit $266.3 billion,The increment is 2011 in the same period of 12 times,Although the second half of 2012 foreign currency deposit began to decrease,But at the end of 2012 foreign currency deposit balance of $406.5 billion,Year-on-year growth of 47.8%,The foreign currency deposit $131.4 billion.

　　同时，大幅增长的外币存款在改变企业及居民资产结构的同时，还在一定程度上影响到市场流动性的充裕程度和货币信贷调控，对中国的货币创造机制产生深远影响。2011年底以来，央行三次下调了准备金率，在向市场传递货币调控稳增长信号的同时，也传递出当前中国货币生成环境出现反向变化的重要讯息：由于外汇占款增速的骤降，以往由外汇占款推动货币增长的货币创造模式将发生深刻改变。

At the same time,A sharp increase in the foreign currency deposit change enterprises and residents assets structure at the same time,Also to a certain extent affect the market liquidity abundant degree and monetary credit control,To China's currency to create a far-reaching effect on the mechanism.Since the end of 2011,The central bank cut the reserve ratio three times,To the market transfer currency regulation steady growth signal at the same time,Also transfer out of the current China's currency formation environment appear reverse change important messages:Due to the funding of the exchange rate plunged,In the past by foreign currency funding of promoting monetary growth create mode will occur profound change.

　　资本跨境流动从单边转成双向 Cross-border capital flow from unilateral into two-way

　　央行2012年金融数据显示，继2011年第四季度中国外汇储备出现1998年以来首次季度负增长后，2012年第一季度外汇储备大幅增长1238亿美元，但此后的二季度再次出现季度负增长，较上季减少650亿美元，三季度增长500亿美元，四季度微增200亿美元左右。

The central bank in 2012 financial data display,After the fourth quarter of 2011 China's foreign currency reserves appeared for the first time since 1998 quarter after negative growth,The first quarter of 2012 foreign currency reserves growth $123.8 billion,But for the second quarter appear again quarter of negative growth,A last season and reduce us $65 billion,The third quarter growth of $50 billion,The fourth quarter mild increase about $20 billion.

　　比外汇储备增速收窄更大的变化是，资本跨境流动已经从单边顺差转成双向流动。外管局2012年三季度国际收支平衡表显示，2012年第三季度，国际收支资本和金融项目逆差517亿美元，这是继2012年二季度出现逆差后的再度逆差，至此，前三季度累计的逆差规模已经达到了368亿美元，如果四季度情况没有太大改善，2012年有可能出现十多年来国际收支资本和金融项目首次年度逆差。

Foreign exchange reserves growth than narrow greater change is,Cross-border capital flow has been from unilateral surplus into two-way flow.Safe in 2012 third quarter balance of payments display,In the third quarter of 2012,Balance of payments capital and financial account deficit of $51.7 billion,This is the second quarter 2012 in deficit after the deficit once again,So far,The third quarter cumulative deficit scale has reached 36.8 billion us dollars,If the fourth quarter situation doesn't improve,In 2012, there may be more than ten years to balance of payments capital and financial project first annual deficit.

　　而这种双向波动的变化也早已在外汇占款数据中得到体现：去年以来，新增外汇占款出现了罕见的弱增长和负增长的局面。2012年1-6月新增外汇占款仅有3026亿元，还不到去年同期增量的15%，下半年更是多次出现负增长，全年外汇占款仅新增4945亿元。与2011年全年新增外汇占款27792亿元相比，2012年全年增量仅为2011年的18%。

And this kind of two-way fluctuation changes are already in the foreign exchange were reflected in the funding of data:Since last year,New funding of foreign exchange appeared rare weak growth and negative growth situation.2012 1 - June new funding of foreign exchange only 302.6 billion yuan,Less than 15% of the growth in the same period last year,Second half has left many times more,The funding of foreign exchange only increased by 494.5 billion yuan.In the whole year of 2011 and 2.7792 trillion yuan new funding of foreign exchange compared,2012 annual increment is only 18% in 2011.

　　可以预见的是，未来资本流动双向平衡将成常态，资本项目甚至出现逆差的大背景下，中国货币创造主渠道正在发生根本性变化，这对央行的传统货币政策是新的挑战：尽管央行不必如以往那样，通过不断提高存款准备金率和发行央票来冲销货币，减小了冲销和财务成本，但在旧有货币创造模式面临改变、原有货币扩张能力出现收敛的新局面下，央行也将无法再借新增外汇占款而维持低利率，市场利率将逐渐回归到接近自然利率的均衡状态。

It is expected,The future capital flows two-way balance will be normal,Capital project appear even deficit background,China's currency as the main channel to create fundamental changing,The central bank's traditional monetary policy is a new challenge:Although the central bank that don't like past,Through continuous improve the deposit reserve rate and the central issue ticket to trade currencies,Reducing the trade and financial cost,But in the old money creation mode face change/The original monetary expansion ability appear convergence of the new situation,The central bank will also can't borrow new funding of foreign exchange and keep interest rates low,Market interest rates will gradually return to close to the nature of the equilibrium interest rate.

　　中国货币发行机制改革时间窗口正在临近，央行不再承担买卖和对冲外汇的角色，央行货币政策的独立性，以及利率和汇率的市场化将不再遥不可期，到底是以什么来确定基础货币的投放，提高货币乘数是下一步改革的目标。 （作者系国家信息中心预测部副研究员）

China's currency issue mechanism reform time window is near,The central bank no longer assume the role of foreign trade and hedge,The independence of the central bank's monetary policy,And the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate will no longer distant period,What exactly is to determine the base money put,Improve the monetary multiplier is the next step the goal. (The author is deputy researcher at the state information center forecast)