国内成品油“涨价窗口”最快将在下月中旬打开

Domestic product oil"Price window"The fastest will be opened in the middle of next month

　　本报讯 （记者陈芳）国际油价继续维持稳步攀升的势头，纽约商业期货交易所（NYMEX）3月原油期货（WTI）周三的交易中最高达到96.92美元/桶，为该合约近4个月以来的最高点。自去年12月份至今国际油价持续反弹逾一个月，累积上涨幅度超过10%。布伦特原油期货在周三的交易日中一度升至113美元上方。随着国际油价的持续反弹，市场的看涨气氛开始增强。

Report from our correspondent (Reporter garrel Dr)International oil prices continue to maintain the momentum has been rising steadily,New York business futures exchange(NYMEX)March crude oil futures(WTI)Wednesday's trading up to a maximum of $96.92 / barrel,The contract for nearly four months since high.Since last December, the international oil prices continue to rebound since more than a month,Cumulative have risen by more than 10%.Brent crude oil futures in Wednesday's trading day once the above to $113.Along with the international oil prices continued rebound,Market bullish atmosphere began to strengthen.

　　国际油价近期以来的持续上涨有以下几方面因素的支持：首先，2013年年初美国在最后时刻暂时避开了跌落财政悬崖的风险，使得这一重要抑制性因素不复存在，同时欧洲通过对希腊的援助资金，欧美经济市场重拾信心。

Since the recent international oil prices continue to rise to have the following several factors support:First of all,At the beginning of 2013 and the United States in the final hour temporarily to avoid the risk of financial cliff fall,Make this an important inhibitory factors disappear,At the same time Europe through the Greek aid money,Europe and the United States economic market confidence.

　　其次，WTI原油对北美因素更为敏感，近期美国住房和就业数据趋好、原油库存维持下降态势利好油价。

secondly,WTI is more sensitive to the north American factors,Recently the United States housing and employment data up and up/Crude oil inventories falling oil prices to maintain good posture.

　　隆众石化网首席原油分析师李彦表示，后市影响国际油价走势的主要还是全球经济走势。2013年全球GDP增速预计在3%左右，属温和增长的水平，预计2013年上半年的原油走势将比下半年更为平缓，从2012年10月下旬起、油价相对平淡的表现或将在今年第一季度延续。

Long the petrochemical and chief crude oil analysts said was sent by li yan,Market outlook on the international oil prices the main trend or global economic trends.In 2013, global GDP growth is expected to around 3%,Belong to moderate the level of growth,In the first half of 2013 is expected to the trend of crude oil will be more gentle than the second half,From 2012 years since late October/Oil prices relatively tame performance or will continue in the first quarter of this year.

　　李彦认为，进入2013年地缘政治因素有所淡化，所以季节性因素对油价的影响或将成为主导因素。而高企的油价不利于全球经济复苏，这也会限制原油价格的上行空间，油价在年中或者下半年出现较明显波动的概率偏大。

Was sent by li yan think,In the 2013 years geopolitical factors to fade,So seasonal factors to affect the price of oil or will become the dominant factor.But high oil prices against the global economic recovery,This would also limit the price of crude oil of ascending space,Oil prices in the second half of year or have more obvious fluctuation probability too large.

　　目前，市场的看多氛围开始增强，不过李彦提醒投资者，目前WTI原油已突破95美元关口，但美国债务上限是潜在威胁，因此短期内不具备过快过强的冲高动力。1月下旬逼近100美元关口是可能的，但想突破并站稳100美元关口难度依旧很大。

At present,The market to see more atmosphere began to strengthen,But was sent by li yan to remind investors,At present WTI has reached 95 us dollars gates,But the United States debt limit is a potential threat,So in the short term does not have a strong impact too high power.Late January approaching $100 gates is possible,But want to break through and hold $100 gates difficulty is still great.

　　成品油价影响

Finished oil prices influence

　　三地原油均价

Crude oil average three

　　变化率逐步攀升

Rate rising step by step

　　随着国际油价的稳步上行，用以决定国内成品油调价的三地原油均价变化率也在逐渐攀升。据卓创数据监测，截至1月23日三地原油移动变化率为0.63%，较前一交易日上涨0.09%，22个工作日移动加权平均价为109.06美元/桶。

Along with the international oil prices steadily upward,To decide the domestic refined oil price adjustment of the average rate in the three crude oil is rising gradually.According to zhuo and data monitoring,By January 23 to 0.63% crude oil three mobile rate,Compared with the previous trading day up 0.09%,22 days moving weighted average price of $109.06 / barrel.

　　卓创分析师胡慧春告诉记者，根据数据监测模型，若近期原油保持小幅震荡上涨将提振三地原油均价呈现小幅震荡上涨态势，预计后期三地变化率会保持温和上涨态势，短期市场上调预期较为疲软。但若近期国际油价大幅上涨使三地原油均价保持大幅上涨，涨幅在每桶3.5美元以上，预计后期三地变化率会延续涨势，最快于2月19日收盘涨破4%的红线。届时，发改委上调窗口将会开启，市场上调预期较为浓厚。

Zhuo and analysts HuHuiChun told reporters,According to the data monitoring model,If the recent crude oil keep small shock rise will boost crude oil on three average small shock rise,Three is expected late rate will keep moderate rise,Short-term market is expected to increase more weak.But if the recent international oil prices rose sharply to keep three average crude oil rises,Increase in more than $3.5 a barrel,Three is expected late rate will continue rise,The fastest on February 19 closing up the 4% of the red line.the,Development and reform commission raised window will open,The market is expected to increase more strong.