汇丰认为，企业补库存活动开始，有助于带动经济复苏态势持续。与此同时，需求拉动的通胀压力可控，为中央保持政策相对宽松创造了条件。汇丰预计，1月中国制造业PMI继续回升，预示着1-2月工业增加值增速可能在12月10.4%的基础上继续回升，至11%左右。

HSBC think,Enterprise complement inventory activities began,Help to promote economic recovery situation continued.meanwhile,Demand pull inflation pressure controlled,For the central keep policy relatively loose created conditions.HSBC is expected to,January Chinese manufacturing PMI continue to recover,Indicates the 1-2 month industrial added value growth may be in December on the basis of 10.4% continue to recover,To 11%.

1月汇丰PMI初值高于市场预期 January HSBC PMI initial value higher than the market expected

　　1月汇丰中国制造业PMI初值高于市场一致预期及该数据系列的长期平均水平51.7。其中生产活动指数从12月的51.9回升至1月的52.2，就业指数51.2，为20个月来的高点。

January HSBC China manufacturing PMI initial value higher than the market consensus expectations and the data series of long-term average of 51.7.The production activity index from December 51.9 picks up to 1 month of 52.2,Employment index 51.2,For twenty months to high.

　　新订单指数52.7，虽较12月略有回落但仍是2011年4月以来的次高水平。新出口订单指数保持平稳偏弱50.1（12月为49.2）。

The new orders index 52.7,Despite the December fell slightly but is still in April 2011 the high-return since.New export orders index to maintain steady weak 50.1(December is 49.2).

　　产成品库存指数从上个月的49.8略降至1月的49.7。通过新订单减成品库存衡量的增长动力指标为3，与去年四季度的2.7相差无几。采购量指数连续四个月加快，1月录得54.2。采购库存指数50.7（12月为50.8）。

Manufactured goods from stock index fell to 49.8 last month is January 49.7.Through the new order fg inventory reduction measure growth indicators for 3,And the fourth quarter of last year 2.7 little difference.Purchase quantity index for four consecutive months to speed up,1 month record of 54.2.Purchasing stock index 50.7(December is 50.8).

　　物价方面，投入品价格从12月的52.6加快至1月的54.6，但仍低于该数据系列的长期平均水平58.3。同时，产出价格指数从12月的51.7略降至1月的51.3，也低于长期平均水平52.4。

Price in,Input products price from December 52.6 speed up to 1 month of 54.6,But it is still less than the data series of long-term average of 58.3.At the same time,Output price index from December 51.7 slightly down to 1 month of 51.3,Also lower than the long-term average of 52.4.

　库存回补将助力经济复苏 Inventory covering will help economic recovery

　　汇丰认为，外需疲弱未有明显改善，内需，尤其是投资仍是制造业活动回暖的主要拉动力量。更重要的是，企业补库存活动开始，有助于带动经济复苏态势持续。订单增多拉动企业雇用人数增加及采购活动加快。采购库存与产成品库存之差已随PMI指数变动见底回升。同时，未完成订单量以及交货延迟时间的增加，显示产能利用率也有所上升。

HSBC think,Weak now have obviously improved,Domestic demand,Especially the investment is still the main manufacturing activities milder pulling force.More important is,Enterprise complement inventory activities began,Help to promote economic recovery situation continued.Increase in orders pull enterprise employs increase and speed up the procurement activities.Purchase inventory and finished goods inventory has the difference with the PMI index change see bottom rebound.At the same time,Not to complete the order quantity and delivery delay time increases,Display capacity utilization rate has also increased.

　　与2009年PMI指数在五个月内从低点到高点多达9个百分点的反弹幅度相比，本轮高于周期低点4.3个百分点的反弹显然幅度温和。汇丰认为，需求拉动的通胀压力可控，为中央保持政策相对宽松创造了条件。

And 2009 PMI index in five months from low to high up to 9% of the amplitude of rebound compared,This cycle is higher than 4.3% of the rebound obviously low amplitude mild.HSBC think,Demand pull inflation pressure controlled,For the central keep policy relatively loose created conditions.

　　汇丰中国首席经济学家屈宏斌称，受益于新业务的持续增长，制造商扩大招工与原料采购并加快生产。尽管外部需求依然未有起色，内需拉动的库存回补过程将在未来数月助力中国经济复苏。（陈法善）

HSBC China chief economist QuHongBin says,Benefit from the new business growth,Manufacturers expand recruitment and raw material purchasing and speed up the production.Although the external demand is still not better,Domestic demand pull inventory covering process in the coming months will help China's economic recovery.(ChenFaShan)

　　旁边报道

Reported side

央行：2012年房地产贷款增速回升 The central bank:In 2012 the real estate loan growth picks up

　　1月24日，央行发布的《2012年金融机构贷款投向统计报告》显示，房地产贷款增速回升，其中个人购房贷款、地产开发贷款增速继续回升。

January 24,,The central bank released[In 2012 financial institutions loans to the statistical report]display,Real estate loan growth picks up,The personal housing mortgage/Real estate development loans growth continues to rebound.

　　报告显示，2012年年末，主要金融机构及主要农村金融机构、城市信用社、外资银行人民币房地产贷款余额12.11 万亿元，同比增长12.8%，比上季度末高0.6 个百分点；全年增加1.35 万亿元，同比多增897 亿元，全年增量占同期各项贷款增量的17.4%，比前三季度占比水平高2 个百分点。

The report shows that,By the end of 2012,Major financial institutions and main rural financial institutions/Urban credit cooperatives/Foreign Banks RMB real estate loan balance is 12.11 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 12.8%,At the end of the quarter than 0.6% higher;The increase of 1.35 trillion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 89.7 billion yuan,Annual increment accounted for 17.4% of the growth in the same period the loan,Than the first three quarters of more than 2% higher level.

　　2012年年末，地产开发贷款余额8630 亿元，同比增长12.4%，增速比上季度末高5.1 个百分点。房产开发贷款余额3 万亿元，同比增长10.7%，增速比上季度末低1.4 个百分点。个人购房贷款余额8.1 万亿元，同比增长13.5%，增速比上季度末高0.9 个百分点；全年增加9610 亿元，同比多增23 亿元。保障性住房开发贷款余额5711 亿元，同比增长46.6%，增速比上季度末低15.1 个百分点，全年增加1796 亿元，占同期房产开发贷款增量的66.5%，比前三季度占比高6.3 个百分点。（财经）

By the end of 2012,Real estate development loan balance is 863 billion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 12.4%,Growth in the second quarter than the high 5.1%.Real estate development loan balance is 3 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 10.7%,Growth in the second quarter than the low 1.4%.Personal housing mortgage balance is 8.1 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 13.5%,Growth in the second quarter than the high 0.9%;The increase of 961 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 2.3 billion yuan.Indemnificatory housing development loan balance is 571.1 billion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 46.6%,Growth in the second quarter than the low 15.1%,The increase of 179.6 billion yuan,The real estate development loans accounted for 66.5% of the increment,Than the first three quarters of 6.3% higher than.(financial)