章玉贵 ZhangYuGui

　　在核心金融信息严重不对称以及国家层面道德风险不断泛滥的今天，金融与武力是西方大国最后的优势。全球范围内的“金融达尔文主义”式竞争，对热望通过扩大人民币的行为空间来有效维护国家金融主权的中国来说尤为不利。中国决不能简单地适应国际规则，而应尽早构筑金融竞争力。

In the core financial information asymmetry and serious national level moral hazard constantly flood today,Finance and force is the advantage of the western powers.Worldwide"Financial Darwinism"Type competition,Through to the behavior of the desire to expand the space to effectively safeguard the state financial sovereignty for China is particularly detrimental.China must not simply adapt to the international rules,And should be released as soon as possible to construct financial competitiveness.

　　对一向密切关注中国经济发展态势的主要西方国家来说，中国在经济规模上的每一个台阶式扩张，都会格外牵动他们的敏感神经。

Always pay close attention to China's economic development trend for the main western countries,China in the economic scale of each step expansion,Will be particularly affects their sensitive nerve.

　　最近10年来，全球十大经济体的排位竞争耐人寻味：美国的全球首席经济大国的地位目前看起来尚为稳固，过去10年，美国将年GDP从10.06万亿美元做大到15.6万亿美元，已是相当不错的成绩单；最具尴尬地位的大概算是日本了，十年前，日本经济规模雄踞世界第二，比排名第三、第四的德、英两国的总和还要多，是当时中国经济总量的2.7倍。而当中国的GDP在2010年正式超越日本之后，成长态势根本不以日本意志为转移。当年，中日之间的经济规模差距还很小，中国为5.93万亿美元，日本为5.48万亿美元，两者相差不足5000亿美元；到了2011年，中日各自的GDP数据则为7.29万亿美元、5.86万亿美元；2012年，这一数据已经变为8.25万亿美元与5.98万亿美元，中国的经济总量已相当于日本的1.37倍。

In recent ten years,The world's ten largest economies qualifying competition afford for thought:America's global chief economic superpower there seems still to secure,In the past ten years,The United States will do in GDP from $10.06 trillion to $15.6 trillion,It is quite a good report card;The most awkward position is probably Japan,Ten years ago,The Japanese economy scale topped the world's second,Than the third/The fourth's/UK's combined,China's economy was 2.7 times.And when China's GDP in 2010 officially overtaken Japan later,Growth situation doesn't in Japan will as the shift.the,The economic gap between the scale is very small,China for 5.93 trillion dollars,Japan for 5.48 trillion dollars,Both are less than $500 billion;By 2011,The respective GDP data was $7.29 trillion/5.86 trillion dollars;In 2012,,The data has a $8.25 trillion and $5.98 trillion,China's economy has equivalent to 1.37 times that of Japan.

　　尽管中国雄踞全球经济第二的显著进步，某种意义上表明中国亟需深刻反思既有增长模式的不可持续性，尽管在主要国家之间的经济竞争越来越集中到对国际经济秩序主导权以及重要产业控制力和财富符号争夺的今天，简单的GDP总量排名并不能准确衡量一国经济实力尤其是国际竞争力的大小。譬如英国，尽管其GDP如今已不及中国的三分之一，若以规模来衡量，已是二流经济国家；但英国在全球金融、战略产业、产品定价权乃至创意设计等方面却是不折不扣的顶尖强国。在暂未找到更好的替代经济指标之前，哪个大国敢不重视基于经济增长的经济规模扩张呢？

Although China topped the global economy the second significant progress,A sense that Chinese profound reflection need both the growth pattern of unsustainable,Although in the main economic competition between countries become more and more focus on international economic order and issue an important industrial control and wealth symbol for today,Simple GDP ranking and not accurate measure a country economic strength, especially the size of the international competitiveness.Such as Britain,Despite its GDP now has less than a third of China,If the scale to measure,Is second-rate economies;In Britain the global financial/Strategic industry/Product pricing and creative design is real top power.In the temporary not found a better alternative before economic indicators,Which country will not pay attention to economic growth based on the economic scale expansion??

　　中国在经济规模上的台阶式扩大，已使主要发达国家的神经日渐紧绷。美国一再透支美元红利，一再推出不负责任的经济政策，其背后的动机耐人寻味。例如，无论是早先的债务上限谈判还是已连续三轮的“量化宽松”（QE）政策以及玩到各国心跳的所谓“财政悬崖”，其本质无一不是握有机制化霸权体系主导权的美国，用这种似有若无的财政悬念对世界经济的一次中等级别恐吓。在某种意义上，这也是趁中国金融资本力尚未强大之前，对全球财富的一次空前洗劫。美国知道，在既有的秩序框架下，其在推出上述经济政策时很难受到强有力的约束。换句话说，由于全球欠缺一个建立在制度化和持续性基础上的沟通与协调机制，握有金融主导权的美国何时祭出怎样的经济与金融政策，主要取决于美国的国家利益与执政当局的政策偏好。而对依靠千千万万产业工人换取血汗钱的中国来说，美国的每一次金融政策泛滥，都是中国国家财富的大面积蒸发。

China in the economic scale step to expand,Has made the main developed countries nerve is tightening.United States repeatedly overdraft dollar bonus,Again and again out of irresponsible economic policy,Its the motives behind the intriguing.Such as,Whether earlier debt ceiling negotiations or has continuous three rounds of the"Quantitative easing"(QE)Policy and play to the countries of the heart"Fiscal cliff",Its essence is not holding all along hegemony system of American literature,This seems to be without financial suspense to the world economy a medium level of intimidation.In a sense,While this is China's financial capital force has not yet powerful before,Global wealth to a unprecedented loot.The United States know,In the framework of the existing order,Its launch in the economic policy is difficult to strong constraint.In other words,Due to the lack of a world built on the basis of systematic and continuous communication and coordination mechanism,The United States financial holding diet when offering out what kind of economic and financial policy,In the United States mainly depends on the interests of the state and the ruling authorities policy preferences.But to rely on thousands of workers for the hard-earned money for China,The United States every financial policy flood,Is China's national treasure of large area evaporation.

　　面对中国崛起，日本满怀焦躁。在美国人面前，日本一向没有多少话语权，即便在可预知的将来恐怕也很难取得双边博弈主导权。所以，日本只能通过与美国之间的经济合作尤其是政治与军事联盟，一方面保持本国的竞争力，另一方面也可以遏制或者削弱中国的影响力。况且美国也有这个战略安排。因此，中国要成为一流强国，要看自身的实力成长。而主要发达国家基于各自国家利益的考虑，不会轻易让中国成为与其平起平坐的经济与政治巨人。因为在他们看来中国的繁荣强大就意味着自己的相对衰落，意味着中国迟早要进入原来由他们控制的势力范围，甚至有朝一日中国会提出改写现存的国际经济与政治规则，这是他们极不愿看到和万难容忍的。但是他们也知道，中国崛起的大趋势很难改变，因此必须在中国经济还不十分强大之前，利用他们操控的国际秩序对中国施加各种压力和干扰，以削弱中国经济的快速上升之势。于是，日本近来不顾国际舆论压力，执意推行货币宽松政策，使日元对美元迅速贬值10%。尽管这种短期行为并不能挽救日本整体经济竞争力的衰退之势，但一向喜欢打小算盘的日本顾不了这么多。至于手握英镑这块大英帝国遮羞布的英国，在采取量化宽松政策方面，也是没太多顾虑。

In the face of China's rise,Japan with anxious.In the United States before the people,Japan always don't have much right,Even in the foreseeable future and I'm afraid it is difficult to obtain bilateral game issue.so,Only by Japan and the United States economic cooperation between the especially political and military alliance,On the one hand to keep their competitiveness,On the other hand can also contain or weaken the influence of China.Besides the United States also have the strategic arrangement.so,China will become a first-class power,Want to see their own strength to grow.The main developed countries based on their respective national interests,Will not easily let China become equal with the economic and political giants.Because in their eyes the prosperity of China powerful means of your relative decline,Means that China will enter the original sooner or later by their control of the sphere of influence,Even one day China will put forward to rewrite the existing international economic and political rule,This is their does not wish to see and tolerate all difficulties.But they also know that,The trend of China's rise is hard to change,So we must in China's economy is not very strong before,Use their control of international order on China to all kinds of pressure and interference,In order to weaken China's rapid economic rise of the potential.so,Japan recently not global pressure of public opinion,Persisted in carrying out monetary easing,The yen against the dollar devaluation 10% quickly.Although the short-term behavior and can't save Japan's overall economic competitiveness of the recession of the potential,But always like to be calculating Japanese too so much.As for hand pounds the British empire g-string British,Adopting quantitative easing policy,Is not too much worry.

　　在核心金融信息严重不对称以及国家层面的道德风险不断泛滥的今天，金融与武力是西方大国最后的优势。全球范围内的“金融达尔文主义”式竞争，对热望通过扩大人民币的行为空间来有效维护国家金融主权的中国来说尤为不利。一次，中国决不能简单地适应国际规则，而应尽早构筑金融竞争力。

In the core financial information asymmetry, and the national level serious moral hazard constantly flood today,Finance and force is the advantage of the western powers.Worldwide"Financial Darwinism"Type competition,Through to the behavior of the desire to expand the space to effectively safeguard the state financial sovereignty for China is particularly detrimental.a,China must not simply adapt to the international rules,And should be released as soon as possible to construct financial competitiveness.

　　要在全球顶尖层面的分工中拥有一席之地并切实维护本国核心利益，中国就必须在构筑金融防火墙的同时，锻造金融资本力。假如没有强大的资本市场、世界级的银行与保险体系，比肩美元的国际货币本位币，能与纽约、伦敦抗衡的国际金融中心以及支撑“金融高边疆”的具有国际竞争力的新兴产业群，即便中国的经济规模超越美国，也无法跻身顶级经济强国之列。

The world's leading level in the division of labor have a place and to maintain its core interests,China must in building financial firewall and at the same time,Forging financial capital force.If do not have strong capital market/World bank and insurance system,As the dollar international monetary standard money,Can and New York/Against the London international financial center, and support"Financial high frontier"With the international competitiveness of the emerging industries,Even if China's economic scale beyond the United States,Can't top the list of the top economic power.

　　中国需要思考和落实行动的是：如何以提升国际竞争力为出发点，同时要培育大批掌握全球金融符号创意的金融家和金融专才。中国在新的全球金融分工中,能否获得与自身实力相称的话语权,既取决于主要经济大国与中国之间的实力此消彼长程度,也取决于中国所承担的国际义务的大小,某种程度上更取决于中国在这场秩序变迁中,能否造就一大批既懂得国际经济与金融规则、熟练驾驭全球性金融管理工具、又有很强的国际沟通能力且善于表达中国主张的高端人才。因此,未来一段时期,中国必须创新金融人才工作机制,完善金融人才政策体系,建立健全公开、平等、竞争、择优的金融人才资源配置机制,逐步实行企业经营管理人才的市场化配置和契约化管理,制定和完善有利于金融人才集聚的政策措施,积极营造有利于高端金融专才来华工作的金融生态环境，早日构筑锻造金融资本力所需要的战略人才方阵。

China needs to think about and carry out the action is:How to improve the international competitiveness as the starting point,At the same time to cultivate a large number of master global financial symbol creative financier and financial professionals.China in the new global financial division of labor in,Access to and their own strength to the discourse right,Not only depends on the major economic powers between China and the strength of the degree of liquor,China will also depend on to the size of the international obligations,To a certain extent depends more on China in the order of the change,Can make a large number of can international economic and financial rules/Skilled to control the global financial management tool/And have a strong international communication skills and good at express China advocates of high-end talent.so,The future for a period of time,China must innovation financial talents working mechanism,Perfect financial personnel policy system,Establish and perfect the public/equality/competition/Preferred financial talent resource allocation mechanism,The talents of enterprise business management step by step the marketization of materialized configuration and management,The formulation and improvement of financial talents converging policy measures,Actively build to high-end financial professionals working in China financial ecological environment,Early build forging financial capital force needed strategic talents phalanx.

　　（作者系上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院院长）

(The author is Shanghai international studies university, dean of the college of international financial and trade)