由于中国广义货币（M2）位居世界第一，似成世界上通胀第一风险国。中国存在通胀风险，但未必不可控。央行数据显示，截至2012年末，M2余额达到人民币97.42万亿元，接近全球货币供应总量的四分之一，是美国的1.5倍。

Because of China's broad money(m2)First in the world,Like into the world inflation risk countries first.China has inflation risks,But not necessarily uncontrollable.The central bank data showed that,By the end of 2012,m2 balance reach 97.42 trillion yuan,Close to a quarter of the total global money supply,Is 1.5 times that of the United States.

　　根据央行今年1月公布的数据，央行资产规模在下降，说明中国在控制基础货币发放。截至2012年11月末，央行资产规模达到28.99万亿元，比10个月前的1月末，资产规模减少5100亿元。这主要归功于外汇资产下降，以及对其他存款性公司债权下降。资产负债表10年时间膨胀8倍，而现在首现收缩，说明央行下决心“减肥”，中国的货币战略已经发生逆转。

According to the central bank this year January figures,The central bank asset scale on the decline,That shows that the base currency in the control issue.By the end of 2012 and the end of the month,The central bank asset scale up to 28.99 trillion yuan,More than ten months ago at the end of 1,Asset scale to reduce 510 billion yuan.This is mainly due to falling foreign assets,And the other deposit sex company claims decline.Balance sheet 10 years time dilation eight times,Now first we contraction,Explain to the central bank"Lose weight",China's currency strategy has reversed.

　　M2增长较为平缓。央行数据显示，2012年年末M2余额97.42万亿元，增速为13.8%；狭义货币（M1）余额30.87万亿元，同比增长6.5%。这是较低的增速。相比而言，2009年12月末，M2余额为60.62万亿元，同比增长27.68%；M1余额为22.00万亿元，同比增长32.35%。

m2 growth more gentle.The central bank data showed that,By the end of 2012 m2 balance is 97.42 trillion yuan,Growth was 13.8%;Narrow money(M1)Balance is 30.87 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 6.5%.This is lower growth.compared,At the end of December, 2009,m2 balance is 60.62 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 27.68%;M1 balance is 22 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 32.35%.

　　可见，M2之所以在高处摇摇欲坠，主要是以往基数过大，央行前两年滥发货币，而这两年没有。央行头脑开始清醒，他们严格控制M2增速，贷款在下降，尤其中长期贷款在下降，但这又能说明什么呢？

visible,m2 is on high topple,Mainly in the past too base,The central bank before two years spam currency,And the two years without.The central bank began to clear the mind,They strictly control the growth of m2,Loans dropped,Especially long-term and medium-term loans on the decline,But it can explain what?

　　次贷危机爆发之前，美国M2同样不高，到现在还是不高。美联储的货币报告显示，2006年底，M2余额为7.0578万亿美元，截至2007年底，为7.4575万亿美元，到2012年底为10.4761万亿美元。美国M2增速如此平稳，照样发生了金融泡沫与次贷危机，根本原因就是那些乱七八糟的金融衍生品都没有统计在内，而这些才是撬动美国资金的杠杆。多亏美联储资产规模不大，中国等新兴经济体的廉价出口品，美国直到泡沫崩溃都没有出现通胀。

Before the subprime crisis,The United States m2 also is not high,Until now still not high.The fed's monetary report,By the end of 2006,m2 balance for 7.0578 trillion dollars,By the end of 2007,For 7.4575 trillion dollars,By the end of 2012 for 10.4761 trillion dollars.The United States m2 growth so smooth,So the financial bubble happened with the subprime mortgage crisis,Root cause is the mess of financial derivatives are not counted,And these are the United States move capital leverage.Thanks to the federal reserve asset scale is not big,Emerging economies such as China cheap exports,The United States until the bubble collapse there was no inflation.

　　而在国内市场，我们会看到债市、股市规模的扩张，看到国债期货、债券衍生品等投资工具纷纷出炉。笔者并不反对金融创新，只想澄清一个事实，过多的金融创新会造成怪异的金融现象，通胀在可以忍受的范围之内，债务风险与金融泡沫照样会破裂。鉴于M2数量过大、原材料输入性通胀加剧、金融创新转嫁能力比美国低得多，中国的通胀风险要比美国大得多。通胀会悄悄偷走每个人手里的钱，而金融泡沫，则会让财富更不均衡，直到泡沫破灭的一天。（更多详情请关注宁夏卫视每个交易日21∶00至22∶45的《证券之夜》栏目） 记者 张禹 整理

And in the domestic market,We will see the bond market/The stock market expansion,See t-bond futures/Bond derivatives and other investment tools have been released.The author not against the financial innovation,Just want to clarify the fact,Too much financial innovation will cause weird financial phenomenon,Inflation in the scope of can tolerate,Debt risk and the financial bubble will burst so.In view of the m2 quantity too big/Raw material input resistance higher inflation/Financial innovation ability to pass on much lower than that of the us,China's inflation risks than the much larger.Inflation will silently steal every man his money,And the financial bubble,It'll make wealth more unbalanced,Until the bubble burst a day.(For more information please pay attention to the TV each trading day 21:00 to 22:45[Securities night]column) Reporter ZhangYu finishing