石仁坪

ShiRenPing

　　推进中国金融改革，这基本上已经成为共识，但庞大而复杂的中国体系内，扭曲的机制渗透到方方面面。从何处着手？走怎样的路径？还远没有达成共识。

Promote China's financial reform,Basically, it has become a consensus,But the huge and complicated China within the system,The mechanism of distortion penetrated into all aspects.Where to start?Walk the path of how?Still far not reached an agreement.

　　2013年1月15日，“亚洲金融论坛-第一财经（香港）金融峰会”上中投公司副总经理汪建熙、浙江省金融办主任丁敏哲、经纶国际经济研究院研究总监肖耿、高盛投资管理部中国副主席暨首席投资策略师哈继铭、南开大学金融发展研究院负责人田利辉五位嘉宾从不同角度对“中国金融改革开放路线图”分析，并提出建言。

January 15, 2013,"The Asian financial BBS - the first finance and economics(Hong Kong)Financial summit"The deputy general manager WangJianXi cic/Zhejiang financial do DingMinZhe director/Learning international economic research institute XiaoGeng director/Goldman sachs investment management department of China's vice President and chief investment strategist ha jiming/Nankai university institute of financial development in TianLiHui five guests from different point of view"China's financial reform and opening up the roadmap"analysis,And make some Suggestions.

肖耿：利率改革与开放的挑战 XiaoGeng:Interest rate reform and open challenge

　　中国过去10年到20年，最大的问题是产能过剩。原因在我们的资本太便宜，实际利率经常是负的，一旦发生通胀就会导致负的实际利率。这是中国金融改革最大的挑战。目前，中国正在经历资产价值和劳动力价值的重置，资产因为劳动力价值的上升而上升，工资上涨，会导致结构性通胀。但结构性通胀一般不被承认，因为有结构性通胀，名义利率特别是存款利率就应大幅度提高。这就导致房地产泡沫，而且导致“一抓就死、一放就乱”的局面。中国金融改革应该在这方面下功夫。

China over the past decade to twenty years,The biggest problem is that overcapacity.Cause in our capital is too cheap,Real interest rates are often negative,Once produce inflation will lead to negative real interest rates.This is the biggest challenge of China's financial reform.At present,China is going through asset value and the value of labor force replacement,Assets because the value of labor force to rise,Wage growth,Can lead to structural inflation.But the general structural inflation will not be admitted,Because there are structural inflation,Nominal interest rate especially deposit interest rate should be increased significantly.This will lead to a real estate bubble,And lead to"A catch died/A put is disorderly"situation.China's financial reform should be in this aspect.

　汪建熙：资本市场改革应重基础 WangJianXi:Capital market reform should weight basis

　　我主要从资本市场方面来谈关于中国金融改革的想法。过去一年多中国证监会掀起了一轮资本市场改革的高潮，但目前改革还没有见到很大成效。一是市场化的定价机制还没有建立起来。二是2012年IPO融资较以前几年有相当减少。三是股指表现比较差。四是投资者，不管是机构投资者还是个人投资者，去年赚钱的不多。同时，券商去年收入也有相当大的下降。因此，下一步改革，更应该加强基础设施和基本制度的建立，把制度建立起来，由市场发挥更大作用。

I mainly from the capital markets to talk about China's financial reform ideas.In the past more than a year of China securities regulatory commission a round the climax of the capital market reform,But at present, the reform has not seen great results.One is the market pricing mechanism has not established.The second is 2012 IPO financing than before there are quite a few years to reduce.The third is poor stock performance.The fourth is investors,Whether institutional investors or individual investors,Last year a few money.At the same time,Brokers last year income also have considerable decline.so,The next step reform,More should strengthen the infrastructure and the establishment of the basic system,Set up the system,The market play a bigger role.

　丁敏哲：构建城镇化金融体制 DingMinZhe:The urbanization construction financial system

　　前十年中国金融改革建立起了与工业化相匹配的城市金融体制，但是十八大以后，城镇化成为经济发展的新引擎。城镇化的重心在县城，与之相适应的金融体制重点在微观金融、民间金融，在普惠制、均等化金融服务上实现突破。

The first ten years of China's financial reform established and industrialization phase matching city financial system,But after the eighteenth big,Urbanization has become an economic development of the new engine.The center of gravity of the urbanization in the county,And to adapt to the financial system focused on microscopic financial/Folk financial,In the form/Equal access to financial services to realize breakthrough.

　哈继铭：利率市场化改善增长模式 Ha jiming:Interest rate marketization improve growth pattern

　　中国经济增长很快但严重失衡，可从两组数据观察。中国的投资在不断增加，消费根本没有能够迎合投资的增长。这样发展下去只有两个出路：首先效率很低，投资不产生资本；第二是靠着出口，投资不是为了消费。这种现象是不可持续的。利率市场化对提高经济效益、改变过度依赖投资的增长模式会起到作用。

China's economy is growing rapidly but serious imbalance,From the two sets of data observation.China's investment in increasing,Consumer no can cater to the growth of investment.So develop only two way:First efficiency is very low,Do not produce capital investment;The second is against the export,Investment is not for consumption.This kind of phenomenon is unsustainable.Interest rate marketization to improve the economic benefit/Change the overly dependent on the growth of investment mode will play a role.

　田利辉：先改革、后开放 TianLiHui:To reform/Open after

　　中国金融改革需要顶层设计和整体规划，要“监、管”分离。利率市场化，汇率自由浮动，资本账户逐步打开。当监管体制建立好的时候才能搞市场，监管没有建立好搞市场要大乱。

China's financial reform need top design and overall planning,to"prison/tube"separation.Interest rate marketization,Free floating exchange rate,Gradually open capital account.When regulation system, establish a good time to make market,Supervision did not establish good make market chaos.

　　开放要公开、公平、公正。让中国经济真正腾飞，让中国不仅是世界工厂、世界消费市场，也应该是世界金融中心。

Open to public/fair/justice.Let China economic real boom,Let China not only is the world's factory/The world consumer market,Should also is the world financial center.