根据古典经济学理论，在对称信息、完全竞争、生产要素自由流动的完善市场条件下，房地产市场的价格杠杆房价会自动调节房地产的供给和需求，使得竞争性的房地产市场产生均衡，同时，房地产市场均衡使得房价水平达到帕累托最优状态。但是，这种完美假设在现实的房地产世界是很难实现的。

According to the classical economics theory,In the asymmetric information/Perfect competition/The improvement of the free flow of production factors market conditions,The real estate market price lever house prices will automatically regulate the real estate supply and demand,Make competitive real estate market produce equilibrium,At the same time,The real estate market equilibrium prices level that achieves pareto optimum.but,The perfect hypothesis in real estate is difficult in the world.

　　据北京住建委网站数据，2012年，北京市全年新房住宅成交达到123036套，扣除保障房之后，为最近3年的最高值，比2011年上涨64.4%；新建商品住宅成交均价20541元/平方米，和2012年初相比，累计上涨10%左右。

According to Beijing to live is built appoint website data,In 2012,,The new Beijing residential clinch a deal reached 123036 sets,After deduction of security room,For the last three years of high,64.4% higher than in 2011;New commodity residential house the price 20541 yuan/square meters,At the beginning of 2012 and compared,Has risen 10%.

　　房价上涨，除了住房刚性需求以外，金融机构过度放贷是房地产价格上涨的直接助燃剂。从经济学的角度来说，价格是商品价值的货币表现，价格的异常升涨，与资金有着密切的关系。个人住房贷款使得居民可通过银行资金实现潜在需求向有效需求的转变；商品房的预售使得这种需求更早得到释放。从银行角度说，由于房地产是不动产，容易查封、保管和变卖，在利润的驱动下银行也非常愿意发放以房地产作抵押的贷款，这进一步加剧了房地产价格的上涨和产业的扩张。央行数据显示，2012年主要金融机构及主要农村金融机构、城市信用社、外资银行人民币房地产贷款余额12.11万亿元人民币，同比增长12.8%。

prices,In addition to housing outside rigid demand,Financial institutions excessive lending is real estate prices in direct combustion improver.From an economic point of view,The price is the value of the currency performance,The price rise of abnormal,And capital has the close relation.Personal housing loan makes residents can be obtained through bank capital to realize the potential demand to the change of effective demand;Commodity house to open to booking make this demand more early release.View from the bank said,Because of the real estate is real estate,Easy attachment/Custody and sell,In the profit driven by a bank also very willing to release the loan to the real estate as collateral,This further intensifies the real estate prices and the expansion of the industry.The central bank data showed that,In 2012, the main financial institutions and main rural financial institutions/Urban credit cooperatives/Foreign Banks RMB real estate loan balance is 12.11 trillion yuan RMB,Year-on-year growth of 12.8%.

　　为了抑制房地产价格的过快增长，监管层陆续出台了一系列严厉的房地产市场调控政策。一方面，加强和改善房地产市场调控，通过行政限购、差别化信贷、考核问责制、房产税改革试点等措施遏制部分城市商品房价格过快上涨；另一方面，加快保障性安居工程建设，通过加大财政资金投入、完善融资政策、增加保障房用地供应等措施支持保障房建设，着力解决城镇中低收入家庭住房困难问题，取得了一定的成效。

In order to restrain the rapid growth of real estate prices,The supervisor has promulgated a series of severe real estate market regulation and control policy.On the one hand,Strengthen and improve the real estate market regulation,Restricted by administrative/Differentiation credit/Assessment accountability system/Housing property tax pilot reform measures to rein in the parts of the city and commercial housing prices rising too fast;On the other hand,The ensuring comfortable housing project construction,By strengthening the financial funds/Perfecting the financing policy/Increased security measures such as housing land supply support room construction,To solve the housing difficulties of low-income families in urban problems,Have achieved some results.

　　目前，整个房地产管理的架构体系已经建立，国家相关部门及各地方政府均明确限购政策不会放松，房地产调控不放松，但由于房产税扩大试点面临不确定因素，一些大城市住房需求持续增长，政策调控的边际效应在衰减，房地产调控需要精准化和柔性化。

At present,The whole real estate management structure system has been established,The relevant state departments and local government are clear policy will not be restricted to relax,Real estate regulation not relax,But as a result of real estate tax, enlarged the face uncertainty,Some of the big cities housing demand growth,Policy regulation of marginal effect in the attenuation,Real estate regulation need accurate is changed and flexibility.

　　在健全的市场，商品的价格最终由供给和需求关系决定。但在短时间内，因信息不对称及消费预期发生变化，就会在短期内导致阶段性的供需不平衡，而“羊群效应”还会加剧这一状况。通过金融政策的信号，向市场释放房价不再上涨的预期，遏制房地产的投资、投机需求，可以通过预期调节机制有效地维护房地产市场价格的稳定。这包括适当提高房贷利率、限制银行资金流入非普通住宅类项目、建立保障性住房融资机制等。这些手段有助于做好房地产市场的预调和微调工作，熨平周期，减少房地产价格的大起大落。

In a healthy market,The price of the goods in the final analysis, by supply and demand relationship decision.But in a short time,Because of information asymmetry and consumption is expected to change,In the short term will cause periodic supply and demand imbalance,and"Herd behavior"Will also aggravate the situation.Through the financial policy signal,Release to the market prices are no longer rising expectations,Curb real estate investment/Speculative demand,Can through the expected adjustment mechanism effectively maintain the stability of the real estate market price.This includes an appropriate increase in mortgage rates/Restricted bank capital inflows be not average house class project/Establish indemnificatory housing financing mechanism, etc.These means to help the real estate market rate and fine work,Ironing cycle,Reduce the real estate prices are always ups and downs.

　　央行调节货币供应有三大政策工具，包括存款准备金政策、再贴现政策和公开市场业务。当提高法定准备金率时，商业银行可提供放款及创造信用的能力就下降。因为准备金率提高，货币乘数就变小，从而降低了整个商业银行体系创造信用、扩大信用规模的能力，其结果是社会的银根偏紧，货币供应量减少，利息率提高，投资及社会支出都相应缩减。存款准备金式的管理方法值得在房地产调控领域使用和推广。

The central bank control the money supply has three policy tools,Including deposit reserve policy/To discount policy and open market operation.When improve legal reserve rates,Commercial Banks provide loans and the ability to create credit fell.Because the reserve fund rate increase,Monetary multiplier is smaller,So as to reduce the commercial bank system create credit/Easy credit scale ability,The result is a social money partial tight,Money supply to reduce,Interest rate increase,Investment and social spending all scale back.The deposit reserve type management method in the field of real estate regulation and control is to use and promotion.

　　目前，房贷市场上仍然执行着贷款购买首套房首付款比例不低于三成，贷款购买二套房首付款比例不低于六成、贷款利率不低于基准利率1.1倍的监管要求。房贷政策并没有随着房地产市场的变化而进行调整，刚性有余而柔性不足。

At present,Mortgage market still carry out a loan to purchase the first suite head proportion is less than thirty percent,Loans to buy two suites head proportion is less than sixty percent/Loan interest rate not less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate of the regulatory requirements.Mortgage policy and not along with the real estate market changes and adjust,More rigid and soft shortage.

　　当然，由于各地房地产市场不同、价格走势各异，国家银监部门除进行适度调整外，还应给予地方银监管部门一定的权限，在政策设定的底限内，根据当地的情况进行灵活调整。在房价上涨预期强烈时，可要求当地商业银行提高首套房或二套房首付款比例，提高贷款利率上浮水平。以凸显房地产政策导向，延缓实际购房需求，进而影响商品房价格，属于高速行车时的“点刹”。以天津为例，据房产中介天津“我爱我家”2012年二手房买卖业务成交数据，在付款方式方面，天津全款购房比重为32.9%，公积金贷款购房比重为23.6%，商业按揭贷款比重为25.5%，组合贷款为17.4%，购房者全款购房比例比上年下降7.5个百分点，贷款购房占比达到了2/3，运用贷款调节房价预期有着现实可操作性。

Of course,Because the real estate market all different/Different price trend,National silver supervisor departments in addition to the moderate adjustment,Should also give local silver regulators must permissions,In the policy set in the bottom line,According to the local situation of agile adjustment.In the house price rising expectations when strong,Can request the local commercial Banks to increase the first suite or two suites head proportion,To improve the level of loan interest rate rise.To highlight the real estate policy guidance,The actual delay the pent-up demand,Affect the price of commercial housing,Belong to the high speed of traffic"DianCha".Tianjin as an example to,According to the real estate intermediary tianjin"I love my family"In 2012, second-hand housing transactions clinch a deal the data,In the way of payment,Tianjin all the proportion of 32.9%,The proportion of accumulation fund loan is 23.6%,Commercial mortgage loan proportion is 25.5%,Combination loan is 17.4%,The person that buy a house full of 7.5% of the ratio,A loan to buy houses to account for more than two-thirds,Prices are expected to use loan regulation has practical operability.

　　有市场观点认为，限购限贷等行政调控手段，对抑制投机需求起到了很好的威慑作用，也误伤了一部分改善型需求。包括 “认房、认贷”的二套房贷款政策，都应区别对待，应推出手段更为灵活、精准的市场化调控手段。

Have the market view,Credit limit for purchasing and administrative control measures,To control the speculative demand played a very good deterrent effect,Also from a part of improving type demand.including "Recognize room/Recognize credit"Two suites lending policies,Should make a difference between,Should launch means more agile/Accurate market regulation and control means.

　　北京楼市在2013年迎来开门红。据统计，截至1月28日，北京1月商品住宅 (含保障房)成交量为11156套，若扣除保障房，纯商品住宅成交10032套，比2012年12月同期上涨2.6%，相比与去年同期上涨幅度则高达5.7倍。一旦形成政策放松的预期，房地产泡沫会再度膨胀，不仅影响经济结构调整的大局，未来的调控难度更大。

Beijing property market in 2013 have good start.According to the statistics,By January and,,Beijing January commodity residential house (Contain security room)Volume for 11156 sets,If deduct security room,Pure commodity residential house 10032 sets to clinch a deal,Than in December 2012, up 2.6% over the same period,Compared to the same period last year rises is as high as 5.7 times.Once formed policy relaxation expected,Real estate bubble will once again expansion,Not only affects the overall situation of economic structure adjustment,The future of control more difficult.

　　从当前的情况看，配合房地产整体调控政策的稳步实施，适度地运用金融手段调节房价预期，时机已经成熟。

From the current situation to see,Cooperate with the whole real estate regulation policy implementation steadily,Appropriate use of financial means to regulate the prices are expected,Time is ripe.

　　（作者系北京大学应用经济学博士后）

(The author is Beijing university applied economics postdoctoral)