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谨防局部套利审慎推进区域金改--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2013-02-05
深圳前海、浙江温州等区域“金改”尝试在不同领域突破金融市场的传统管制,区域试点如何在风险控制的基础上实现从地方至全国的推广成为关键。
Shenzhen sea before/Wenzhou, zhejiang and other regions"Gold to"Try to break through financial markets in different fields of traditional control,How the pilot area on the basis of risk control from the local to the national promotion becoming the key.
参与制定前海金融产业专项规划的中国社科院政经所国际金融研究室副主任刘东民认为,全国金融开放需谨慎稳妥进行,局部试点获得经验后将有利改善宏观金融市场环境。广东金融学院院长陆磊表示,目前金融改革重点解决金融资源配置问题,需在宏观和微观上审慎推进,并鼓励多元化主体参与。
Participate in setting the sea before financial industry special planning of the Chinese academy of international political, economic and financial research, deputy director of the LiuDongMin think,The national financial opening should be cautious and along,Local pilot gain experience will improve the macro financial market environment.Guangdong financial, dean of the college of LiuLei said,At present the financial reform is mainly to solve the financial resource allocation problem,Should be in micro and macro prudence in advance,And encourage diversified subjects to participate in.
部分试点短期难有突破 Part of the pilot to have a short break
中国证券报:前海试点跨境人民币贷款,除了推动人民币国际化进程之外,是否会对利率市场化改革起到推动作用?
China's stock certificate report:Before sea trial cross-border RMB loan,In addition to promote the internationalization of RMB outside,Whether to play a role in market-oriented interest rate reform?
刘东民:从制度的设计看,前海金融创新的着眼点并没有放在利率市场化改革,有关部门希望前海能够做到金融开放方面的创新,使人民币回流的渠道能够拓宽。中国的利率市场改革肯定有自己的步伐,很难有明确的时间表,前海推动利率市场化改革的力度是很微弱的。
LiuDongMin:From system design to see,Sea before starting point of financial innovation and not in the interest rate marketization reform,The relevant departments to sea before can do financial opening aspects of innovation,Make RMB return channel can broaden.China's interest rate market reform must have their own pace,It is difficult to have a clear timetable,Sea before promote market-oriented interest rate reform is very weak.
陆磊:前海金融创新的意义在于设立相应的额度,使内地和香港之间的人民币市场实现对接,最终能够起到更加开放资本项目作用。但利率市场化改革未必需要通过某个区域来进行相关试验,现在一些符合市场波动性、浮动性要求的理财产品活跃,已经体现了利率市场化的操作。
LiuLei:Sea before the meaning of financial innovation is to set up the corresponding line,Make between mainland China and Hong Kong the renminbi market to realize a butt joint,Will eventually be able to play a more open capital account action.But a market-oriented interest rate reform may not need through a region to carry out the relevant test,Now some conform to the market volatility/Floatability requirements of the active financial products,Has been reflected the marketization of interest rate and operation.
中国证券报:温州金融改革也提及资本项目开放,前海模式与温州模式有何不同?
China's stock certificate report:Wenzhou financial reform and the open of capital items mentioned,Sea before mode and wenzhou mode have any different?
刘东民:温州的金融改革也在资本项目方面打开了“口子”,允许温州个人外汇走出去。但有关部门担忧资产向海外转移,所以温州的模式推广到全国是有难度的。民间金融创新则涉及国有金融垄断问题,短期内难有突破,与之相比,前海的金融创新所承担的风险较小,也符合人民币国际化的要求。
LiuDongMin:Wenzhou's financial reform in capital projects opened"cut",Allow wenzhou individual foreign exchange to go out.But the relevant departments to worry assets overseas transfer,So the wenzhou mode to promote national is difficult.Folk financial innovation, financial problems involving state-owned monopoly,Short-term NaNan a breakthrough,Compared with,Before the financial innovation of the sea to smaller risk,Also accord with the requirement of RMB internationalization.
陆磊:前海意在拓展深港金融合作,大而言之,中国的金融市场可能通过前海来完成与世界的无缝对接,所以它带有一定的全局性。而温州以民营金融为主,主要是准金融组织,这部分资本希望今后审慎有序安全地进入金融领域。温州金改总体上是带有局部性和人群特征的,并不具有全局性。
LiuLei:To develop deep sea before Hong Kong financial cooperation,As a,China's financial markets may through the sea before to finish and the world seamless docking,So it has some global.Wenzhou private finance to give priority to,Mainly is the accurate financial organizations,This part of the capital in the future in order to prudence safely into the financial sector.Wenzhou gold change in general with local crowd and characteristics,Does not have a global.
设置相关安全网 Set up relevant safety net
中国证券报:各地金融改革试点推进,从试点区域向更广的区推广将面临哪些难处?
China's stock certificate report:All financial reform pilot propulsion,From the pilot area to a wider area promotion will be faced with what difficulty?
刘东民:对于前海而言,难点主要有两个。一方面不能让资本项目的“口子”开得太大,现在还不能保证整个金融体系适应一个开放的环境;另一方面,防止局部试点的过程产生严重的套利,前海推动跨境贷款,实际上配合了严格的监管措施,将套利限制在能够接受的范围之内。
LiuDongMin:The first in the sea,There are two major difficulties.On the one hand can't let capital project"cut"Open too wide,Now can't guarantee the financial system to adapt to an open environment;On the other hand,To prevent local pilot process produces serious arbitrage,Sea before promoting cross-border loans,In fact with the strict supervision measures,Will limit the arbitrage can accept range.
陆磊:金融改革往往牵一发而动全身,在这样的背景下需要开设试点但相应的额度不能放得太开。同时要考虑宏观形势,比如跨境资本流动的速率比较快,考虑是否会呈现一种放大效应,出现比较明显的热钱流入或者资本外逃。
LiuLei:Financial reform often domino,In such a background to open pilot but the corresponding line can't put too open.At the same time to consider the macro situation,Such as cross-border capital flow rate is faster,Considering whether can present a amplification effect,Appear obvious hot money inflow or flight of capital.
中国证券报:各地金改试点侧重点不同,探索的路径也不同,如何理解全国金融改革目前的方向和未来路径?
China's stock certificate report:All the gold to pilot different emphasis,Explore the path is also different,How to understand the national financial reform the current direction and future path?
刘东民:从去年开始,金融改革已经进入加速期,已经不完全依靠试点推广模式,典型代表是汇率制度和利率市场化改革,基本上是在全国范围内同步开放。中国金融改革是一个协调推进的过程,不是按照某一个严格的次序来推动,而要根据实际情况综合协调的考虑。
LiuDongMin:Since last year,Financial reform has entered the acceleration period,Has not completely depend on pilot promotion mode,The typical representative is exchange rate and interest rate marketization reform,It's basically a nationwide synchronous open.China's financial reform is a coordination promote process,Not according to a strict order to promote,And according to the actual situation of the comprehensive coordination to consider.
陆磊:金融改革要注意三方面。一要更多发挥金融市场主体的积极性,要加入更多民营或者民间资本的成分,改革的基本方向还是要多元主体参与。二要微观审慎。如果产生相应套利操作或一定程度的泡沫化应该有预案安排,避免中小投资者因为这些金融创新而受损。三要宏观审慎。一旦进行相对比较明晰的改革,可能会加剧宏观面变量波动,比如通货膨胀、资产价格整体走高或走低,资本外逃形成的系统性风险,需要设置相关安全网。
LiuLei:Financial reform should pay attention to three aspects.A more play the enthusiasm of the financial market main body,Want to join more private or folk capital composition,Reform of the basic direction or multiple main body participation.Secondly, to microscopic prudent.If produce corresponding arbitrage operation or a certain degree of frothy should have plan arrangement,Avoid small and medium-sized investors because these financial innovation and damaged.Third, we need to macro prudent.Once relatively clear reform,May aggravate the macro level variables fluctuation,Such as inflation/Asset prices overall go high or low,Flight of capital formation of systemic risk,Need to set up relevant safety net.
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