蛇年春节黄金周的前一天，国家统计局发布了1月CPI等经济数据。数据显示，今年1月全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨2.0%。受“明显上涨”的食品价格推动，1月CPI环比大涨1%，创2012年2月以来新高。对于农历蛇年的物价走势，业内人士普遍预测称，今年通胀压力仍存，或逐渐进入上行通道；受春节因素影响，2月CPI或被推高至3%以上。

The year of snake one day before Spring Festival golden week,The national bureau of statistics released on January CPI and economic data.Data display,In January the general level of China's consumer prices rose 2.0% year-on-year.by"Significantly higher"Food prices push,January CPI link rose 1%,And since February 2012 highs.For the lunar year of the snake's price movements,The personage inside course of study says general prediction,This year are still inflationary pressures,Or gradually into the uplink channel;By the Spring Festival factors,February CPI or by pushing up to more than 3%.

1月CPI环比创新高 菜价“高烧”推动成主因 January CPI link innovation high vendors"High fever"Push into primary

　　统计局发布的数据显示， 2013年1月份，全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨2.0%。其中，城市上涨2.0%，农村上涨2.2%；食品价格上涨2.9%，非食品价格上涨1.6%；消费品价格上涨2.0%，服务价格上涨2.2%。1月份，全国居民消费价格总水平环比上涨1.0%。

Bureau of statistics data released by the display, In January 2013,China's consumer prices rose 2.0% year-on-year in the general level.the,City rose 2.0%,Rural rose 2.2%;Food prices rose by 2.9%,Non-food prices rose by 1.6%;Consumer prices rose by 2.0%,The service price rose 2.2%.In January,The general level of consumer prices rose 1.0% link.

　　受“明显上涨”的食品价格推动，更能反映物价近期变动情况的CPI环比数据1月大涨1%。国家统计局城市司高级统计师余秋梅对此分析称，这是自2012年2月份以来月度环比涨幅的最高值。从发布的分类数据看，食品价格上涨2.8%，影响居民消费价格总水平上涨约0.92个百分点。换句话说，在1月份1.0%的CPI环比涨幅中，食品价格上涨的影响超过90%。其中蔬菜和肉类价格的上涨尤其突出。

by"Significantly higher"Food prices push,More recent price can reflect the change of CPI data link on January rose 1%.The national bureau of statistics city department senior statistician YuQiuMei this analysis says,This is since 2012 since February monthly link or peak.Released from the classification of the data to see,Food prices rose by 2.8%,The general level of influence consumer price increase of about 0.92%.In other words,In January in 1.0% of the CPI increase link in,The influence of food prices more than 90%.The vegetables and meat prices especially prominent.

　　从发布的具体数据中，不难看出食品价格特别是蔬菜价格呈“高烧”态势。近三个月来，由于天气影响和节日因素，蔬菜价格上涨较多。

Released from the specific data,It is not difficult to see that the price of food, especially in vegetable prices"High fever"situation.Nearly three months to,Due to the bad weather and festivals factors,Vegetable prices more.

　　据相关资料测算，与2012年10月份相比，2013年1月份全国蔬菜价格上涨了37.0%，华北、东北地区蔬菜价格上涨更多，分别上涨了74.6%和70.2%，而西南、中南地区蔬菜价格的涨幅要相对小一些。在1月份1.0%的CPI环比涨幅中，蔬菜和肉类价格上涨的影响占了六成。

According to relevant data calculation,Compared with October 2012,In January 2013, the prices of vegetables have gone up by 37.0%,North China/Northeast China vegetable prices more,Up 74.6% and 70.2% respectively,And southwest/The price of vegetables in central rise to some relatively small.In January in 1.0% of the CPI increase link in,Vegetables and meat prices influence of accounted for sixty percent.

　　国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室主任牛犁此前在接受中国网财经频道采访时表示，1月食品价格还是比较高的。以去年12月为例，环比涨幅几乎是食品拉动的，食品环比上涨0.79%，CPI环比上涨0.8%。12月环比已经很高，历史平均也就0.5%，正常为0.2%、0.3%。1月环比猛增至1.0%，就是春节因素体现的。与近期天气寒冷、蔬菜价格上涨较快、猪肉价格全线回升等因素有较大关系。

The state information center economic forecasts of macroeconomic research director NiuLi previously told China financial channel, said,January food price is relatively high.In December last year as an example,Link or is almost pulled food,Food chain rose 0.79%,CPI link up 0.8%.12 y/y is already very high,Historical average is 0.5%,Normal is 0.2%/0.3%.1 shot up to 1.0% y/y,Is the Spring Festival factors reflect.And the cold weather recently/Vegetable prices rise faster/All factors such as pork prices rebounded has great relationship.

　　编辑： 邓京荆 标签： CPI 春节 涨幅 春节因素 物价走势

editor: Deng Beijing schizonepeta label: CPI Spring Festival or the Spring Festival factor price movements

蛇年物价或酝酿上升周期 春节因素将推高2月CPI The year of snake price or gestation period of rise Spring Festival factors will push the high CPI February

　　由于春节时间的“错位”，1月CPI出现了食品价格明显上涨而CPI同比涨幅回落的局面。国家统计局城市司高级统计师余秋梅分析说，2012年1月份是春节所在月份，当月价格上涨较多，因而导致2013年1月份CPI同比涨幅出现回落。

Because of the Spring Festival time"dislocation",January CPI appeared food prices significantly higher year-on-year CPI rise and fall of the situation.The national bureau of statistics city department senior statistician YuQiuMei analysis said,The Spring Festival is in January 2012 in place,The prices more,So in January 2013 to increase year-on-year CPI fell.

　　基于此，对于春节所在的2月份，专家普遍预计CPI涨幅会增大。媒体称，经济学家范剑平指出，虽然1月份CPI同比涨幅回落，但挪到2月份的“春节”将影响2月份CPI同比涨幅将升至3%左右。考虑到季节性因素，范剑平强调，所有经济分析最好将1—2月份累计数据作为有价值数据，单独1月份数据难作判断。

Based on this,For the Spring Festival in February,Experts generally expected will increase the CPI increase.Media said,Economists FanJianPing pointed out,Although year-on-year CPI rise back in January,But Noah to February"The Spring Festival"Will affect February year-on-year CPI will rise to 3%.Considering the seasonal factors,FanJianPing emphasize,All the best economic analysis will be 1, 2 months accumulated data as a valuable data,In January alone data hard to judge.

　　牛犁对此持有类似观点。他认为，从以往来看，2月份的环比会涨幅较大，1月份涨幅“比较凶”，2月份涨幅可能会慢一些。牛犁分析称，1月环比涨幅较预期高，受春节因素等影响，2月份CPI或为3%以上。

This NiuLi a similar view.He thinks,From the past to see,February link will or larger,In January or"Is fierce",February or may be slower.NiuLi analysis says,1 y/y than expected rise high,By the Spring Festival factors influence,February CPI or for more than 3%.

　　对于蛇年我国的物价走势，业内人士普遍预测通胀压力仍然存在，物价或酝酿上升周期。报道称，经济学者易宪容对此认为，牵动物价走势的猪肉价格已经基本结束下行通道，今年可能逐渐进入上行通道。

For the year of snake our price movements,The personage inside course of study consensus forecasts inflation pressure still exist,Price or gestation period of rise.Reports say,Economists YiXianRong to think,Affect price movements of pork prices have basic end downward channel,This year may gradually into the uplink channel.

　　据报道，复旦大学经济学教授殷醒民认为，临近春节进入消费旺季、翘尾因素的叠加，会让2013年1季度的物价同比和环比整体有所上升。

According to the report,Fudan university professor of economics YanXingMin think,Near the Spring Festival season in consumption/Carryover effect of superposition,Will make 2013 1 quarter year-on-year prices and link the overall increased.

　　中央财经大学教授郭田勇此前接受中国网财经采访时也表示，今年物价还有一定上涨压力。他认为，经济政策会适度地进行调整，对经济的刺激作用在增加，从未来的改革层面来看，包括价格领域，或出台理顺价格的改革措施。

The central university of finance and economics professor guo TianYong previously accepted an interview also said China finance and economics,This year the price rise there is a certain pressure.He thinks,Economic policy will be reasonably adjusted,The economic stimulation on the increase,From the future reform level,Field including the price,Or straighten out on the price of reform measures.

　　此外，上述媒体报道称，相关方面对2013年中国控物价的局势展现出审慎态度。中国央行日前发布报告称，劳动年龄人口增长趋缓、经济回升可能会较快向CPI传导、全球超宽松货币这三大因素将加大物价上行压力。央行强调，在经济转轨发展阶段，金融宏观调控需要始终强调防范通胀风险。(记者姚慧婷)

In addition,The media reports say,In 2013 China related to control price situation show a prudent attitude.China's central bank released the report says,Working age population growth to slow down/Economic rebound may be faster to CPI conduction/Global super loose monetary these three factors will increase the price upward pressure.The central bank stressed,In the economic transition stage of development,Financial macro-control need always emphasize to prevent inflation risks.(Reporter YaoHuiTing)

　　编辑： 邓京荆 标签： CPI 春节 涨幅 春节因素 物价走势

editor: Deng Beijing schizonepeta label: CPI Spring Festival or the Spring Festival factor price movements