在全球金融风险降低，经济转好以及新一轮的政治经济周期的推动下，进入新年的中国经济显露出一幅乐观良好的图景。萎靡了很久的中国股市出现了较为明显的反弹，房产市场也开始升温，市场憧憬新年牛市的情绪开始涨高。宏观层面，结束了10个季度的连续下滑后，在新一轮城镇化政策的带动下，中国经济在未来一年的表现令人期待。我认为，中国经济在2013年的每季度经济增速应该可以平稳地维持在8%以上，全年的经济增速应该在8.1%~8.3%。中央和地方政府换届后，地方政府促增长的欲望高涨，经济增长常常高于预期。再者，世界主要国家的央行大幅放水，这又会使中国重回一个通胀高涨和资产泡沫的窘境。

In the global financial risk,The economy turned around and a new round of political economic cycle driven,Into the New Year China's economy showed a picture of optimistic good prospect.For a long time in the Chinese stock market appeared obvious rebound,The housing market began to warming,Market look forward to the New Year the mood of the bull market began to rise high.Macroscopic level,Over ten quarter after falling,In the new round of urbanization policy under the drive,China's economy in the coming year performance is looking forward to.I think,China's economy in 2013 is every quarter economic growth should be able to maintain smooth in more than 8%,Annual economic growth should be 8.1% ~ 8.3%.The central and local government after the change,The local government to promote growth in desire,Economic growth is often higher than expected.moreover,The world's major central Banks greatly drain,It will cause China to return to a rising inflation and asset bubbles in the dilemma.

　　特别在日本央行步美联储的后尘进行新一轮的无限量的量化宽松之后，美元和日元的套利交易会进一步为新兴市场的资产价格推波助澜。虽然市场已开始讨论美联储在年内退出“量化宽松”的可能性，但今年这种可能性的出现可以忽略不计，而其对于全球资本流向将有着深远的影响。上一年回流美国的避险资本也会大幅流出，流入那些资本收益较高、宏观层面稳定的国家。虽然这样的风险是全球性的，但是进入新一轮增长期的中国也在加快资本账户的开放，因此会成为资本流入的首选。中国资产泡沫风险，在几年调整之后重新整固，颇有大举回头之势。而随后可能出现的严格而迅猛的政策收紧又会引起影子银行体系信用违约的风险。

Especially in the bank of Japan step the fed's footsteps for a new round of unlimited quantitative easing later,The dollar and yen carry trade fair for the emerging markets further asset prices add fuel to the fire.Although the market has started to discuss the fed out in years"Quantitative easing"The possibility of,But this year the emergence of this possibility can be neglected,And the the global capital flow will have a far-reaching influence.In the United States last year return hedge capital could significantly outflow,Into the capital income is higher/The macroscopic level stable state.Although such risks are global,But entering into a new round of growth in China also to speed up the opening of the capital account,So will become the first choice of capital inflows.China asset bubble risk,In a few years after the adjustment to the whole solid,There is quite a large potential of the back.And then possible strict and rapid policy tightening and will cause the shadow banking system credit default risk.

　　要避免这些风险的出现，中国金融改革和对外经济政策的调整势在必行。但是政策的选择更为重要，中国应加速金融市场准入的开放，推行利率市场化，慎重资本账户的开放，鼓励人民币的对外投资，减少出口补贴，鼓励进口，允许海外金融机构和长期在中国营运的跨国公司在中国上市和融资等措施可以化解资产泡沫的风险。

To avoid the appearance of these risks,China's financial reform and foreign economic policy adjustment is imperative.But the choice of policy is more important,China should speed up financial market access open,Implementation of the interest rate marketization,Careful capital account opening,Encourage the foreign investment,Reduce export subsidies,Encourage import,Allow overseas financial institutions and long-term in China operations of multinational companies in China's market and financing measures can be taken to resolve the risk of asset bubbles.