从跌跌不休，到年底翘尾，中国资本市场度过了波澜起伏的2012年。携着正在进行当中的诸多创新改革，顶着800余家IPO企业排队的压力，资本市场迈向了变革中的2013年。我们力邀各金融机构投资精英，参与本报连续第四个年度的《机构投资者调查》。本报对调查结果进行统计分析及整理，以期为读者提供展望未来市场走向及形成投资策略的逻辑和视角。

From stumbling endlessly,By the end of the year QiaoWei,China's capital market through the ups and downs of the 2012 years.With the ongoing reform of many innovation,Top with more than 800 IPO enterprise line pressure,The capital market to the change of 2013 years.We invited all financial institutions elite investment,Participate in the fourth straight year[Institutional investors survey].The results of statistical analysis and sorting,In order to provide readers with looking to the future market trend and formation of investment strategy logic and perspective.

　　调查时间：2013年1月21日至2013年1月31日 /调查对象：基金、券商、保险、私募、期货等机构的基金经理和投资经理 /收回有效问卷：100份

Survey time:On January 21, 2013 to January 31, 2013 / investigation object:fund/brokers/insurance/private/Futures institutions such as fund managers and investment manager/valid questionnaires were received:100 a

　　陈旭

ChenXu

　　去年的这个时间点，《经济观察报》向108位机构人士发放调查问卷，结果显示，没有一个人认为自己2012年的投资收益会为负。如今，纵观2012年机构的投资收益数据，当时《我们都会赚到钱的》这个题目恰如其分。大部分机构人士所管理的产品都在2012年取得了正收益，哪怕这些收益取得的时点，是在2012年的最后一个星期。许多机构将股市在2012年年中和年末出现的两波上涨行情称为“吃饭行情”。

Last year's this time point,[Economic observer]A mechanism to 108 people issue questionnaire,The results show,No one think you 2012 years of investment income will be negative.now,Throughout the 2012 institutional investment income data,At that time[We will earn money]The title just right.Most institutions personage place management products in 2012 made positive income,Even if the gains achieved time,In 2012 the last week.Many organizations will the stock market by the end of the year in 2012 and two wave rise in prices is called"Eat market".

　　此时，《经济观察报》向基金、券商、保险、私募、期货等机构的基金经理和投资经理征询调查，共计收回100份有效调查问卷，得到了和2012年完全不同的答案。

At this time,[Economic observer]To fund/brokers/insurance/private/Futures institutions such as fund managers and investment manager request for investigation,Take a total of 100 valid questionnaires,Got and 2012 different answers.

　

　改革的预期 Reform expected

　　2012年最后的时间到底发生了什么？人们或许可以从很多方面解释股市上涨的原因，但是回归股市最为基础的上涨基石，银行股自去年12月5日起的集体启动是非常重要的一个原因，这和监管层持之以恒的努力不无关系。从证监会主席郭树清数次“力挺”蓝筹股，到积极推动QFII增加额度提速，再到郭树清数次奔赴海外的“路演”，一条维稳股市的脉络异常清晰。

In 2012, the last time exactly what happened?People may be from many aspects to explain the cause of the rise in the stock market,But return to the stock market is the most basic foundation rise,Bank shares since last December 5, the collective start is a very important reason,This and supervision layer persistent efforts not relationship.From the securities regulatory commission chairman GuoShuQing several times"Force is"Blue chip,To actively promote QFII increase the speed limit,To GuoShuQing several times to overseas"Road shows",A dimensional stability of the stock market abnormal clear context.

　　在中国，关注政策走向的效果是如此的明显，在我们的调查问卷结果中，参访者的态度也是一个例证。什么因素最能影响2013年证券市场的走势？77%的机构人士将选票投给了新政府的改革预期，CPI超预期的选择率只有12%。的确，新一届领导人的集体亮相得到了最广泛关注。这在各大机构的2013年投资策略中，都会重墨提及。

In China,Attention to policy to effect is so obvious,In our questionnaire results,Visitors to attitude is also an example.What factors can affect the stock market trend in 2013?77% of the institutions are the people who will vote for the reform of the new government is expected,The choice of CPI than expected rate of only 12%.indeed,The new leader collective appearance to get the most attention.This in all the institutions in 2013 investment strategy,Heavy ink will be mentioned.

　　政改为经，政策为脉。数字背后是2013年的政策逻辑，40%的人士认为，新的经济刺激政策将会帮助国内经济增长回升，此比例是认为房地产行业回暖因素的5倍。36%的人士认为2013的股市将呈全年上涨态势，超过了其他选项。有26%的人士认为，城镇化建设是一个重要机会。对政策的理解，是中国资本市场人士的必修课，新政府的改革预期是什么？新的经济刺激措施又是什么？一系列改革热点问题，也将影响2013年的资本市场。

Reform for the,Policy for pulse.Digital is behind 2013 policy logic,40% of the people think,The new economic stimulus policy will help domestic economic growth picks up,This ratio is that the real estate industry milder factors of 5 times.36% of the people think that 2013 is the stock market will rise,More than the other options.26% of the people think,Urbanization is an important opportunity.To the understanding of the policy,China's capital market participants is compulsory,The new government's reform is expected?The new economic stimulus measures and???????A series of reforms on the hot issue,Will also affect the capital market in 2013.

　　我们设置了这样一个问题，2013年，哪种机构的资产管理规模的扩张速度最快？46%的人士将选票投给了券商资管机构，25%的人士选择了公募基金。证监会在由郭树清执掌之后，市场化改革一直是长期目标。近半机构人士认为券商资管机构的规模扩张最快，就是看到了2012年5月券商创新大会后的监管层态度。2012年末，券商资管规模正式突破万亿元大关，解放券商手脚，鼓励市场竞争的政策力度可见一斑。

We set up such a problem,In 2013,,What kind of mechanism of asset management the expansion of the fastest speed?46% of the people will vote for the securities trader endowment tube mechanism,25% of people choose the public offering fund.Securities regulatory commission in charge by GuoShuQing after,Marketization reform has been long-term goals.Nearly half of them think brokers agencies (tube institutions fastest scale expansion,Is to see the May 2012 brokers innovation after the supervision layer attitude.By the end of 2012,Brokers endowment pipe size formal exceed one trillion yuan RMB,Liberation brokers and,Encourage market competition policy dynamics is obvious.

　　回到本节最初，郭树清为什么亲自到海外向QFII“路演”？如果你清楚证监会的政策脉络，就会知道发审制度改革是郭树清最为重视的“去行政化”一环。由于股市低迷，IPO又一次被行政化暂停。股市点位与改革方向产生了矛盾，如果发审制度市场化改革再起，就需要稳定的股市环境。

Back to this section first,Why GuoShuQing personally to overseas to QFII"Road shows"?If you know the CSRC policy context,Will know hair trial system reform GuoShuQing is the most important"To the administrative"A ring.Due to the stock market downturn,IPO was again the administrative pause.The stock market position and reform direction have come into conflict,If the hair trial system marketization reform comeback,Will need to stable stock market environment.

　　

放弃保守 Give up keep

　　2012年，本报的机构投资者调查结果显示，过半人士认为，沪指的波动区间将在2000点至2500点，仅有一人认为将回调至1680点以下，他们“猜”得挺准。

In 2012,,The results show that the institutional investors,More than half of them think,The fluctuation interval boomed in 2000 points to 2500 points,Only one people think will callback to below 1680,they"guess"A quasi.

　　今年，调查结果预测的集中度更高，69%的机构人士认为沪指的波动区间将维持在2000点至2500点，31%则认为这个波动区间应该在2500点至3000点，并且，64%的机构人士认为，2013年最好的投资机会就在一季度。

This year,The results of the survey forecast higher concentration,69% of the people think that the agency boomed fluctuation interval will remain in 2000 points to 2500 points,31% thought the fluctuation interval should be in 2500 points to 3000 points,and,64% of the mechanism of them think,2013 the best investment opportunities in the quarter.

　　但是，他们在投资策略方面出现了较大的分歧。33%的人士认为应该随时把握新的投资机会，行业轮动；35%的人士认为应该集中行业配置的行业主题投资；而32%的人士则认为应该淡化行业，精选个股。这与我们去年的调查结果区别较大，2012年时，54.63%的机构人士认为应该淡化行业，精选个股。

but,In their investment strategies have had the bigger differences.33% of the people think should always grasp the new investment opportunities,Industry wheel dynamic;35% of the people think that the industry should focus on the configuration of the industry investment theme;While 32% of people think that it should be the desalination industry,Selected stocks.This with our last year's survey results large difference,In 2012,54.63% of the mechanism of them think should desalination industry,Selected stocks.

　　这或许可以说明，大家认为今年的大势不错，无论哪种策略都能赚钱。那究竟什么是势？

This may explain,We believed that this year's half good,No matter what kind of strategies can make money.That what is potential?

　　2013年的大势是流动性充裕，各国放松银根的结果是市场上不缺资金。62%的机构人士认为2013年的股票市场流动性会比较充裕，其结果就是83%的人士认为2013年的操作会比2012年更容易赚取收益，在2012年的调查中，这个数字仅为64%。在这样的思维下，机构们放弃了保守的矜持。

2013 years is half ample liquidity,Countries ease monetary policy is the result of market is not short of money.62% of them think institutions 2013 stock market liquidity is abundant,The result is 83% of the people think that the operation of the 2013 than 2012 are more likely to earn income,In the 2012 survey,This figure is only 64%.In such a thought,The agency gave up the conservative reserved.

　　48%的机构人士认为，2013年债市将下行，而在2012年，认为债市将上行的比例达到了47.22%。正因为流动性充裕的局面已成，77%的人士认为，股票是2013年最值得投资的品种，51%的人士在2013年强烈看好大盘蓝筹股的表现，而29%和34%的人士将仓位预设在70%~80%和50%~70%，甚至有7%的人士表示会满仓激进操作。这一切，都与2012年形成了巨大反差。

48% of the mechanism of them think,In 2013, the bond market will be down,In 2012,Think that the proportion of bond market will be up to 47.22%.Because of the ample liquidity situation has become,77% of the people think,The stock is 2013 years the most worthy of investment varieties,51% of the people in 2013 has strong grail blue chip performance,While 29% and 34% of people will default position in 70% ~ 80% and 50% ~ 70%,Even 7% of people said they would ManCang radical operation.All this,And in 2012 to form the huge contrast.

　　金融、地产以及军工成为最受机构人士们青睐的行业，得票率分别为65%、43%和36%。如果说流动性充裕是大势，那么有着良好业绩的银行股、有着政策放松预期的地产股和有着复杂原因的军工股就是三棵良木。

financial/Real estate and military industry become the most popular people favor the institutions of the industry,Vote for 65% respectively/43% and 36%.If the ample liquidity is the general trend,So have a good performance of bank shares/Has a policy to relax the expected with property and has a complex reasons military shares are three tree good wood.

　　

共识 consensus

　　和去年一样，没有人认为自己会在今年取得负收益。78%的机构人士认为自己将在2013年取得10%~30%的收益，甚至有5%的人士认为自己将会取得50%~70%的收益。我们无法想象，如果没有最后一个星期的股市上扬，2012年的机构投资会是怎样一个局面。

And the same as last year,No one thought he would get negative earnings this year.78% of the people think that their institutions in 2013 with 10% ~ 30% of the income,Even 5% of the people think you will get 50% ~ 70% of the income.We can't imagine,If not the last week of the stock market,2012 institutions how investment will be a situation.

　　2012年券商创新大会现场，国泰君安一位高管木然地说出一句话：“都放开了，以后真不知道该怎么搞了。”是的，放松监管，鼓励创新大势已成，经济复苏不再留存纸面，作为专业投资者，面对的将是更为严酷的竞争环境。

In 2012 the congress brokers innovation,Guotai junan an executive woodenly say a word:"Are released,Later don't know how to do."yes,Less regulation,Encourage innovation has become a general trend,Economic recovery is no longer retained paper,As a professional investor,Face will be more severe competition environment.

　　一次采访中，花旗银行的一位高管向记者解释为什么基金不能（或极少能）联手在海外操纵新股定价，“因为成熟的资本市场有公平的竞争环境，任何内幕交易行为都是得不偿失。”是的，这些共识的准则有些已经在国内市场起了应有的作用。

An interview,Citigroup's a senior reporter to explain why fund can't(Or rarely)To collaborate in the overseas control new pricing,"Because the mature capital market have a fair competition environment,Any insider trading behavior is the loss outweights the gain."yes,The consensus standards have some in the domestic market has played its due role.

　　面对未来，国内的专业投资人士将会发现，这个已经21岁的资本市场再也不是他们熟悉的江湖，它有着逐渐健全的机制，逐步丰富的投资群体，和逐渐理性的市场逻辑。

Facing the future,Domestic investment professionals will find,This has 21 capital market is no longer their familiar runescape,It has gradually perfect mechanism,Gradually the rich investment group,And gradually rational market logic.

　　投资到底是艺术还是科学，这个长久的话题一直影响着许多专业人士。有一个问题非常确定，如果专业投资者在2013年成绩不好的话，借口的选择将会少之又少。

The investment is art or science,The long topic has influenced many professionals.Have a question very sure,If professional investors in 2013 words of bad grades,Excuse choice will be few and far between.

　　（本组调查由陈旭、张勇、李保华、赵娟、欧阳晓红、巢新蕊等记者完成）

(The survey by the ChenXu/Zhang yong/LiBaoHua/ZhaoJuan/OuYangXiaoGong/Nest new core and press finish)