2月25日，周一。意国大选、英国痛失AAA主权评级，是近日备受国际金融市场关注的两件大事。执笔时，意大利选举结果数在未知，但欧洲股市已涨上去了。穆迪下调英国主权评级，却是上周五晚的事，近日跌势不让日元“专美”的英镑雪上加霜，执笔时1.51美元关亦告急。

On February 25,,On Monday,.Meaning the election/Britain lost AAA sovereign rating,Are the two major has attracted many attentions of the international financial market.When the pen,Elections in Italy is unknown,But European stock markets have risen up.Moody's downgraded the sovereign rating,Is Friday evening,Fall not to let the yen recently"Sole providence"The pound,When written $1.51 off also.

　蒙蒂退之无憾？ Mr Monti's retreat from regret?

　　意大利乃欧元区第三大经济体，英国则处身单一币区以外，从风险/避险的角度出发，一者之失往往是另一者之得。意英债息差距、英镑相对欧元强弱，恰恰反映了英欧资产在市场气氛转变下的此长彼消。然而，单就意国大选和英国降级两件事而论，把两国命脉串连起来的，却是一个近年在财经评论中大行其道的用语：“节约”（austerity），以及立足于这个理念的紧缩政策。

Italy is the euro zone's third-largest economy,Britain is walk outside the single currency area,From the perspective of risk/safety,Person's loss is another one too.The gap between the coupon/Sterling against the euro,Reflects the British European assets under the market sentiment turns this grew.however,Elections alone of Italian and British relegation two things,The lifeline of the two countries together,It is a popular language in the comments of finance and economics. In recent years:"To save"(austerity),And based on the concept of tightening policies.

　　十五个月前，满身酒色财气、官司丑闻无日无之的意国政坛“极品”贝卢斯科尼，由欧盟出手“劝退”，换上不经民选暂掌政权的技术官僚蒙蒂（Mario Monti）。当时欧债危机火头处处，意西债息斗快飙升，欧元区颇有顷刻覆灭之忧。欧盟为回避意大利民间对紧缩措施的反对，索性把民主进程束之高阁，期望与欧盟关系密切的无党派官僚蒙蒂能突破政治阻力，带领意大利踏上改革经济巩固财政之路。

Fifteen months ago,,Covered in debauchery type/Case of scandal, there is no of Italian politics"The best"Silvio berlusconi,,By the European Union to"stop",Change without elected Mr Monti temporarily held the REINS of government of technocrats(Mario Monti).Rotor everywhere when Europe's debt crisis,West the coupon dou quickly soared,The eurozone has suddenly collapse.The European Union to avoid Italian folk opposition to austerity measures,Simply put the democratic process on the shelf,Expect closely associated with the European Union, a non-partisan bureaucracy monti can break through the political resistance,Lead the Italian on the road to reform the economic and fiscal consolidation.

　　当时便有不少论者认为，在政局混乱群情汹涌、意大利能否继续留在欧元区顿成疑问的恶劣环境中，由一个没有政党背景、无竞选悬念因而不必顾虑选民喜恶的技术官僚暂掌政权，一则有助意大利推行不受欢迎却利于该国留在欧元区的政策；二则挽回投资者信心，令意大利不致被难以负担的融资成本压得透不过气来；三则政党不难利用看守当局创造的空间重整旗鼓，静候蒙蒂完成历史任务后上台执政。

When there is a lot of scholars think,In the political chaos did surge/Italy will continue to stay in the euro zone into a question in the bad environment,By a no political background/No campaign suspense and don't have to worry about your likes and dislikes voters technocratic power,An unpopular is conducive to help Italy's stay in the euro zone's policy;Second to restore investor confidence,Made it difficult for Italy may not be the burden of financing cost pressure to breathe;Three parties are not difficult to use guard authorities to create space to regroup,Wait for Mr Monti came to power after finished my historical task.

　　这一天终于到来。执笔时，意大利大选结果虽未公布，但得票最多的政党，不是主导中间偏左联盟的民主党（由该党领袖贝尔萨尼统率），便是主导中间偏右联盟的自由人民党（由贝卢斯科尼率领）。坊间的分析是，只要中间偏左阵营压倒贝卢斯科尼的一派，令他无法第四度“回朝”，蒙蒂这十五个月来的努力便没有白费，理由是这个结果等同于“为下一代着想”的紧缩政策获意大利选民认可，蒙蒂功成身退，何憾之有？

The day finally arrived.When the pen,The election result is not released in Italy,But the party with the most votes,Not dominant center-left coalition of Democrats(By the party leaders bersani command),Is the leading centre-right alliance of PDL(Led by silvio berlusconi).Analysis is anecdotal,As long as the centre-left faction over silvio berlusconi's camp,When he can't the fourth degree"Back to the",Monti the fifteen months efforts were not in vain,The reason is that the result is equal to"For the sake of the next generation"Italian voters approved austerity,Mr Monti retire,She have?

　　然而，老毕的看法略有不同。第一，假设由贝尔萨尼领导的中间偏左联盟真的取得胜利（是否如此须待点票证明），这个结果到底应拜贝尔萨尼坚定不移支持紧缩，还是越近投票日立场越摇摆不定所赐？

however,Old bi's view is slightly different.The first,Assuming that the center-left coalition led by Mr Bersani really win(It must be to recount),This result really should thanks to bielsa's firm support for austerity,Or as close to election day position on the swing?

　　假如其胜可归因于在关键时刻“转阵”，那还算不算是蒙蒂/欧盟路线的胜利？

If it can be attributed to at a critical moment"Transfer matrix",It is not a monty/route of victory in the European Union?

　　第二，如果软化对紧缩政策的支持立场，确实为中间偏左联盟赢来大量选票，那么得票最多的三个政党（第三个为由喜剧演员格里洛领导的反建制、主张意大利退出欧元区新势力“五星运动”），便尽皆为反对紧缩的政坛力量，分别只在程度有大有小。由是观之，贝卢斯科尼卷土重来纵使失败，意大利选民中又有少人真的像坊间评论描述般，甘愿为下一代着想节衣缩食牺牲“小我”？可是，从市场的角度出发，只要贝卢斯科尼不获选民授权重出江湖，意大利债息、欧元和欧股皆可看高一线，整件事立即变得十分简单，且看最终结果是否一如投资者所愿。

In the second,If soften support for tightening policy stance,Indeed for centre-left alliance to win a large number of votes,Then three party with the most votes(For the third comedian anti-establishment Gerry's leadership/New forces of claims that Italy's exit from the eurozone"Five-star movement"),And he is as opposed to tightening the political power,Only in degree have greatly small, respectively.Is the view,Berlusconi return even if fail,Italian voters have less people really like anecdotal comments describing,Willing to shell out for the next generation unwilling to sacrifice"The ego"?but,From the perspective of the market,As long as Mr Berlusconi does not the authorized out of voters,The coupon in Italy/The euro and European shares are available at high line,The whole thing immediately become very simple,And see if the end result, as investors are willing to.

　大不列颠“遭贬” Great Britain"By the fall"

　　在意大利选民投下神圣一票之前，三年前打着紧缩旗号上台的英国首相卡梅伦，遭穆迪一盆冷水照头淋，大不列颠失落AAA。穆迪降低英国主权评级，被不少论者指为后知后觉，但值得一谈的并非评级机构是否迟了出手，而是卡梅伦/欧思邦（财政大臣）以紧缩财政政策配合宽松货币政策的“特效处方”，对削减英国财赤债务，非但未能取得预期效果，还换来穆迪降低评级的回应，那无异于在深信严控开支厉行节约乃英国必走之路的卡梅伦脸上狠掴一巴掌，而英国通过削减开支改善财政屡试无功，于欧元区以至其他主张节约的国家，更加提供了一个足以活学活用的反面教材。

Before the Italian voters to vote for the divine,Three years ago, British prime minister David Cameron came under the squeeze,According to moody's, a pot of cold water shower head,Great Britain lost its AAA.Moody's cut the British sovereign ratings,By many theorists to know after after sleep,But it is worth talking about is not whether the rating agencies are late,But Mr Cameron/Mr(The chancellor of the exchequer,)To tighten fiscal policy with its loose monetary policy"Special prescription",Debt to cut Britain's deficit,Not only failed to achieve expected effect,Also for the responses of the moody's downgrade,Be convinced that the strict controls that cost saving is the only way of Cameron malicious slap a slap on his face,Britain by cutting spending to improve fiscal try repeatedly reactive power,In the euro zone that claims to save other country,More offers a cautionary tale of learning enough to live.

　　卡梅伦/欧思邦这个紧缩政策“梦幻组合”，显然寄望于宽松货币政策抵销削支对经济造成的负面影响，令财赤/债务对GDP比率得以在削减开支的推动下逐步改善。然而，三年的尝试证明，政府一方面低估了削减开支对增长的拖累，另一方面则高估了宽松货币政策对经济的支持，结果是GDP收缩较财赤/债务下降速度快，英国财政非但无法改善，且呈每况愈下之象。

Mr Cameron/Mr The tightening policy"Dream ticket",Apparently hoped to looser monetary policy to offset cut the negative economic impact,The deficit/debt to GDP ratio in gradually improve under the impetus of the spending cuts.however,Three years of trying to prove,The government on the one hand underestimated spending cuts to drag on growth,On the other hand, overestimate how much looser monetary policy support for the economy,Result is a decline in GDP contraction than deficit/debt faster,British finance not only can't improve,And as is go from bad to worse.

　　穆迪在降级声明中特别提到，禠夺英国AAA评级，一个重要考量是大不列颠中期增长前景恶化。

Moody's downgrade noted in a statement,禠 Britain's AAA rating,An important consideration is the medium-term growth prospects are deteriorating of Great Britain.

　　老毕认为，这句话等于把英国首相卡梅伦和财政大臣欧思邦逼进墙角：一意孤行继续紧缩，英国经济未来几年也许真的给穆迪“批死”，只会恶化不会改善；而作出一百八十度转变，削支变增支，英国经济未始不能扭转乾坤，但卡梅伦凭“瘦身”主张登上首相宝座，历三年无果即半途而废，并改弦更张化“瘦身”为“增肥”，跟承认早知如此何必当初何异？坚持节约固难获选民理解，忍痛为紧缩政策“止蚀”，难道就不会遭选民唾弃？卡梅伦的处境，较近期跌个四脚朝天的英镑好不了多少。

The old never put off till tomorrow what you can think,This sentence is equal to the British prime minister David Cameron and the chancellor of the exchequer, Mr B.b:To promote continued contraction,The British economy in the next few years may really to moody's"Group of death",Will only deteriorate will not improve;And make a one hundred and eighty degree turn,Cut the variable ZengZhi,The UK economy WeiShi cannot turn things around,But Mr Cameron with"Thin body"The prime minister claims,Through three years of fruitless or fall by the wayside,Then change it"Thin body"For the"To add fertilizer",To admit that I had known so why at the beginning I differ?Insist on saving solid difficult for voters to understand,Bite the bullet for tightening policy"Stop loss at",Don't won't be hated by voters?Mr Cameron's situation,Not much better than recent fall a fall in the pound.

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In this paper, all rights reserved:Hong Kong daily news of finance and economics