工研金融观察·2013年2月

Being financial observation, in February 2013

　　总策划： 詹向阳 中国工商银行(601398,股吧)金融研究总监

The total planning: ZhanXiangYang industrial and commercial bank of China(601398,stocks)Director of finance research

　　兼城市金融研究所所长

And city financial institute

　　课题组长： 樊志刚 中国工商银行城市金融研究所副所长

Project team leader: FanZhiGang industrial and commercial bank of China financial research institute, deputy director of the city

　　邹民生 上海证券报首席编辑

Chief editor Zou Minsheng Shanghai securities news

　　课题组成员：马素红、程实、宋玮、郭可为、王婕

Team members:Ma Sugong/Cheng Shi/Song Wei/Guo can be/Wang jie

　　赵幼力、朱妮、杨荇

Zhao Youli/Zhu Ni/Yang grass

　　中国工商银行城市金融研究所 上海证券报

City industrial and commercial bank of China financial research institute, Shanghai securities news

　　国内方面：1月，CPI同比增速回落，PPI环比上升，通胀温和可控。货币供应量增速双双上扬，社会融资规模再创新高，新增信贷投放迅猛，存款大幅快速增长。银行间市场资金面宽松。人民币对美元汇率创下历史新高。沪深股市回暖明显。为确保经济温和复苏态势，预计宏观政策可能有适度预调微调。

domestically:In January,Year-on-year growth fell back,PPI rose,Moderate inflation under control.Money supply growth have rallied,Social financing scale hit a record high,New credit rapidly,Deposit fast growth significantly.The interbank market loose liquidity.The yuan exchange rate hit a record high against the dollar.Shanghai and shenzhen stock market recovery is obvious.To ensure a moderate economic recovery,Macroeconomic policy is expected to moderate preset fine-tuning.

　　国际方面：年初以来，国际金融市场风险偏好趋强，美元升值，日元贬值，欧元上涨势头被扭转，全球股市整体上行，大宗商品市场牛市暂告段落，欧洲重债国国债收益率下行。展望未来，全球各主要经济体经济运行差异和宏观政策冲突悄然加剧，国际金融市场走势料将进一步分化。

International aspects:Since the start of the year,The international financial market risk preference is strong,The dollar,The yen,The euro rally was reversed,Global stock markets overall upward,New bull market in commodities to paragraph,European ChongZhaiGuo yields down.Looking to the future,World's major economies differences of economic operation and the macro policy conflict quietly rising,International financial markets is expected to further differentiation.

　　

一、价格总水平：CPI增速回落，PPI环比上涨 a/The general price level:The The CPI growth fell back,PPI rose

　　1月，居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨2.0%，较上月下降0.5个百分点，增速下降主要原因是去年与今年春节错位造成的高基数效应。其中，上年价格上涨的翘尾因素约为1.0个百分点，新涨价因素约为1.0个百分点。

In January,The consumer price(The CPI)Rose 2.0%,Down 0.5% compared with last month,Growth by the main reason is that last year and this year the Spring Festival dislocation caused by the high base effect.Among them,The carryover effect of the price is about 1.0% last year,New prices of about 1.0%.

　　1 月工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降1.6%，较上月跌幅收窄0.3个百分点，自去年10月以来连续4个月收窄（见图2）；环比上涨0.2%，结束前两月下降趋势，主要是上游原材料的产品价格继续回升，尤其是钢铁和有色价格明显回升。其中，钢铁价格指数环比上涨2.86%，有色上涨1%。

Producer prices in January(PPI)Fell 1.6% year on year,The decline narrowed 0.3% last month,Since October 4 consecutive months(As shown in figure 2);Rose 0.2% month-on-month,Two months before the end of a downward trend,Mainly is the upstream raw material prices continued to rebound,Especially for steel and non-ferrous prices rebounded.Among them,Steel price index rose 2.86% month-on-month,Color rose 1%.

　　中长期来看，全球“量化宽松”继续蔓延，包括原油和铜在内的全球主要商品价格年内可能会逐步走高；国内工业活动逐渐回暖，工业生产资料成本上升，以及刘易斯拐点逐步到来、劳动力供给趋紧等因素影响，将使通胀压力在较长一段时期内存在。

Medium and long term view,Around the world"Quantitative easing (qe)"Has continued to spread,Major global commodities, including crude oil and copper prices years may gradually go up;Domestic industrial activities gradually warming,Industrial production costs rise,As well as the lewis turning point coming step by step/A tightening Labour supply factors such as the impact,Will lead to inflationary pressures in the longer period.

　　

二、社会流动性：货币供应量增速双双上扬，新增信贷投放迅猛，存款大幅快速增长 (2)/Social mobility:Money supply growth have rallied,New credit rapidly,Deposit fast growth significantly

　　1月份，我国M1、M2受基数效应和翘尾因素作用，增速快速上扬。M2同比增长15.9%，比上月提高2.1个百分点，比去年同期提高3.5个百分点；M1同比增长15.3%，分别比上月末和去年同期提高8.8和12.1个百分点。M2和M1之差为0.6%，较上月减少6.75个百分点，表明货币活跃程度明显增强，经济复苏态势持续。

In January,The M1/The M2 base effect and carryover effect,Growth is rapid rise.The M2 rose by 15.9%,2.1% higher than that of last month,Compared with the same period last year increased by 3.5%;M1 rose 15.3% year-on-year,Than the end of last month and the same period last year increased by 8.8 and 12.1%.The difference between the The M2 and M1 is 0.6%,Fell 6.75% last month,Suggests that monetary activity was significantly increased,Ongoing economic recovery.

　　当月社会融资规模2.54万亿元，比去年同期多增1.56万亿元，创下有统计数据以来的新高。社会融资规模再创新高，一方面有今年春节延至2月，为1月融资活动释放空间的季节性因素；另一方面主要是去年以来宽松货币政策叠加今年年初银行冲贷因素所致。

That month social financing scale is 2.54 trillion yuan,Compared with the same period last year more than 1.56 trillion yuan,Hit a record high since statistics.Social financing scale hit a record high,On the one hand has until February this year Spring Festival,January financing activities to release space for seasonal factors;On the other hand, earlier this year, mainly is the superposition of loose monetary policy since last year Banks rushed to borrow.

　　从融资结构来看，未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加5812亿元，同比多增6026亿元；人民币贷款增加1.07万亿元，同比多增3340亿元；外币贷款折合人民币增加1793亿元，同比多增1941亿元；信托贷款增加2054亿元，同比多增1807亿元；企业债券净融资2201亿元，同比多1759亿元；委托贷款增加2061亿元，同比多增415亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资244亿元，同比多163亿元。

In terms of the structure of financing,Not discount the bank acceptance of draft an increase of 581.2 billion yuan,Compared to the more than 602.6 billion yuan;Renminbi loans increased 1.07 trillion yuan,Compared to the more than 334 billion yuan;Foreign currency loans increased by 179.3 billion yuan,Compared to the more than 194.1 billion yuan;Trust loans increased 205.4 billion yuan,Compared to the more than 180.7 billion yuan;Net enterprise bonds to raise 220.1 billion yuan,Compared to the more than 175.9 billion yuan;Entrusted loans increased 206.1 billion yuan,Compared to the more than 41.5 billion yuan;Non-financial enterprise equity financing in 24.4 billion yuan,Compared to the more than 16.3 billion yuan.

　　在流动性总体宽松大背景下，去年以来的直接融资快速发展格局仍将持续；同时在内外需开始复苏、实体经济资金需求集中释放的背景下，元旦之后商业银行为保证全年盈利增长，加大了年初信贷投放力度和去年末积压信贷的释放。

In the context of overall easing liquidity,Last year's rapid development of direct financing pattern will continue;At the same time, external demand began to recover/Under the background of the real economy needs centralized release,Commercial Banks to guarantee full-year earnings growth after New Year's day,Heavier at the beginning of the credit and the backlog of late last year the release of the credit.

　　1月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额64.08万亿元，同比增长15.4%，比上年末和上年同期均高0.4个百分点。当月人民币贷款增加1.07万亿元，同比多增3340亿元，创出近3年以来新高。分析年初信贷投资较快的原因：从供给角度看，经济企稳回升、资金面较为宽松和“早投放、早收益”因素都决定了年初银行信贷扩张动力足。从需求角度看，企业信心恢复、基建投资提速、房市持续回暖等因素刺激了实体经济信贷需求的增长。

One end of the month,Financial institutions RMB loan balance of 64.08 trillion,Up 15.4% from a year earlier,Are 0.4% higher than the same period last year and the year before.An increase of 1.07 trillion yuan renminbi loans during the month,Compared to the more than 334 billion yuan,Hit new highs in nearly three years.Analyze the cause of credit investment at the beginning of faster:From the supply perspective,Economy stabilises/More liberal and on the financing side"Early delivery/Early returns"Power factors are decided at the beginning of the bank credit expansion.From the demand perspective,Business confidence back/Infrastructure investment to speed up/Factors such as the housing market continues to rebound to stimulate the real economy growth in demand for credit.

　　在供需两方面因素作用下，1月信贷投放较快增长也是较为自然的。受年初因素消失的影响，加之春节假期因素，预计2月新增贷款会有所回落。全年来看，经济增速小幅回升背景下实体经济信贷需求平稳增长，以及央行货币政策仍维持稳健基调，可能更倾向于运用短期工具调节市场流动性，同时未来物价可能进入新的上行周期且输入型通胀压力不容忽视，预计2013年总体信贷环境将较为适度，全年信贷呈“前松后紧”走势，新增贷款规模将在9万亿元左右。

Under the effect of both demand and supply factors,January rapid credit growth is also more natural.Influenced by factors disappear earlier this year,Along with the lunar New Year holiday,It is expected to fall in new loans in February.Throughout the year to come and see,Economic growth edged off under the background of the real economy steady growth of demand for credit,As well as the bank of England's monetary policy remains dovish tone,May be more inclined to use short-term tools to regulate the market liquidity,At the same time, the price may be entering a new upward cycle and imported inflation pressure should not be ignored,Overall credit environment in 2013 is expected to more moderate,Credit is throughout the year"Before the loose and tight"movements,New loans will be in 9 trillion yuan.

　　1月份，金融机构人民币存款余额92.93万亿元，同比增长16.0%，分别比上年末和上年同期高2.6个和3.6个百分点。当月人民币存款增加1.11万亿元，同比多增1.90万亿元（见图5）。在经历去年末的揽存高峰之后，1月份存款仍能出现快速增长，主要受春节因素、信贷高增长派生存款、财政性存款季节性上升等因素影响。

In January,Financial institutions RMB deposit balance of 92.93 trillion yuan,Up 16.0% from a year earlier,, respectively, 2.6 and 3.6% higher than the same period last year and the year before.Renminbi deposits increased 1.11 trillion yuan during the month,Compared to the more than 1.9 trillion yuan(As shown in figure 5).After LanCun summit in late last year,Rapid growth of deposits can still appear in January,Mainly by the Spring Festival/Credit growth is derived deposits/Financial deposit rise in seasonal factors.

　　从数据来看，由于春节时间点延后和流动性充足，本月住户存款增加7499亿元，非金融企业存款增加1179亿元，信贷投放派生和影子银行转化共同推动存款增长；财政性存款增加3353亿元。

From the data,Due to the Spring Festival time delay and ample liquidity,This month resident deposits increased 749.9 billion yuan,Non-financial corporate deposits increased 117.9 billion yuan,Credit derivatives and the shadow banking transformation to promote growth of deposit;Fiscal deposits increased 335.3 billion yuan.

　　展望未来，在社会资金流动性较为宽裕、贸易顺差和外汇占款保持正增长，以及影子银行规模继续扩张转化等因素推动下，预计2013年新增存款规模可能高于去年。从货币政策来看，基于中国经济已处于复苏进程中、社会资金仍较为宽裕，且输入型通胀压力依然存在，2013年货币政策将继续维持“稳健”基调，预计广义货币（M2）增速在14%左右。

Looking to the future,In the liquidity is relatively comfortable society/Trade surplus and foreign exchange to keep positive growth,And the shadow banking was pushed by such factors as the scale continues to expand into,Is expected in 2013 in new deposits may be higher than last year.From the perspective of monetary policy,Based on China's economy is in recovery process/Money is still relatively well-off society,And imported inflation pressure is still there,Monetary policy in 2013 will continue to maintain"robust"The tone,Expected to broad money(The M2)Growth at around 14%.

　　

三、银行间市场流动性：市场资金面持续宽松，央行启用SLO加强流动性管理 three/Interbank liquidity in the market:The market continued easing on the financing side,Central bank enabled SLO to strengthen liquidity management

　　1月，虽然央行连续四周公开市场操作实现资金净回笼，全月净回收资金3000亿元，但市场流动性仍明显宽松，资金利率较上月有显著下行。1月末,银行间市场同业拆借月加权平均利率为2.27%，分别比上月和上年同期低0.34个和2.10个百分点；质押式债券回购月加权平均利率为2.25%,分别比上月和上年同期低0.37个和2.43个百分点。

In January,Although the central bank for four consecutive open market operations to achieve capital drained a net,All net recovery capital of 300 billion yuan per month,But the market liquidity is still obviously loose,Funds rate had a significant downward from the previous month.One end of the month,The interbank market on interbank weighted average interest rate of 2.27%,, respectively, 0.34 and 2.10% lower than last month and a year ago;Type bond repurchase pledge on the weighted average interest rate of 2.25%,, respectively, 0.37 and 2.43% lower than last month and a year ago.

　　1月18日，央行启用公开市场短期流动性调节工具(SLO)，作为公开市场日常操作的必要补充，在银行体系流动性出现临时性波动时相机使用。SLO工具的推出，进一步促进货币市场成交活跃。据中国外汇交易中心数据，1月银行间市场成交规模达30.0万亿元，同比增长102%。其中，货币市场成交17.7万亿元，同比增长95.2%。

On January 18,,Central bank open market short-term liquidity adjustment tool(SLO),As a necessary complement to public markets daily operation,In liquidity in the banking system temporary fluctuation when the camera is used.The launch of the SLO tools,To further promote clinch a deal the active in the currency markets.According to the China foreign exchange trading center data,January interbank market clinch a deal the scale of 30 trillion yuan,Up 102% from a year earlier.Among them,Clinch a deal money market 17.7 trillion yuan,Up 95.2% from a year earlier.

　　展望未来，在贷款利率已经下行、物价重新上行的复杂局面下，加之对外汇占款可能大幅回升的担忧，央行可能在短期内适度收紧流动性。但基于中国经济仍处于正常复苏周期，为保证实体经济资金需求，央行对利率和准备金率等数量型工具使用会较为谨慎，近期以运用公开市场操作保持基准利率稳定为主。同时，不排除下半年通胀如果超预期增长，会采取加息等手段灵活调控。

Looking to the future,Has downward in the lending rate/Prices upward under complicated situation again,Combined with concerns over foreign exchange could rebound sharply,The central bank may moderate tightening liquidity in the short run.But, based on China's economy is still in the normal recovery cycle,In order to ensure the real economy needs,Central bank to use quantitative tools such as interest rates and reserve ratio will be more cautious,Recent mainly USES open market operations to keep benchmark interest rates steady.At the same time,Cannot be ruled out if inflation than expected growth in the second half year,Will be taken to raise interest rates, flexible control.

　　

四、人民币汇率：即期汇率持续小幅升值，未来维持升值预期 four/The yuan's exchange rate:At the spot exchange rate continues to rise slightly,The future is expected to appreciate

　　1月，受国内外经济利好等因素的影响，人民币对美元汇率升值压力有所增加，14日人民币对美元即期汇率中间价一度升值至6.2154，并创历史新高；下半月，随着春节临近，市场行情趋于温和，汇率保持相对稳定，31日人民币对美元即期汇率中间价为6.2188，较去年末升值0.18%。全月人民币对美元即期市场交易规模为3595亿美元，较上月(2510亿美元)增长43.2%。

In January,Influenced by factors such as economic news at home and abroad,Increasing pressure on RMB appreciation against the dollar,14 the yuan central parity rate at sight against the dollar rose to 6.2154,And a record;The second half,As the Spring Festival is near,Markets tend to be moderate,Exchange rate remained relatively stable,31 the yuan between the spot exchange rate against the dollar price of 6.2188,A 0.18% late last year to rise.Whole month against the dollar at the spot market trading at $359.5 billion,From the previous month(Us $251 billion)Growth of 43.2%.

　　1月31日，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报收6.2140，较去年12月末升值85个基点，升幅0.14%；海外无本金交割远期外汇交易（NDF）一年期定盘价为6.3111，较去年12月末升值191个基点，升幅0.30%，显示出较强的升值预期。

On January 31,,Offshore yuan(CNH)At 6.2140 against the dollar,From late December to appreciate 85 basis points,Increase 0.14%;Offshore non-deliverable forward foreign exchange transaction(NDF)One-year fixing of 6.3111,From late December to appreciate 191 basis points,Increase 0.30%,Show the strong appreciation expectations.

　　展望未来，央行继续实施稳健货币政策、国内经济低位复苏和国内外存在利差将支撑人民币升值趋势，但中国国际收支渐趋平衡、贸易顺差转入低增长轨道、全球量化宽松仍有不少风险因素等，又限制升值空间。预计2013年人民币汇率将保持有限度的温和上升态势，双向波动仍将是未来一段时间人民币汇率的显著特点。

Looking to the future,The central bank to continue to implement prudent monetary policy/Domestic economic recovery and low spreads will support the yuan to rise trend at home and abroad,But China's international income and expenses is balanced/Trade surpluses into low growth/There are still many risk factors such as global quantitative easing,And limited appreciation of space.The yuan's exchange rate in 2013 is expected to maintain a limited moderate rise,Two-way volatility will remain for a period of time are the distinctive features of the RMB exchange rate in the future.

　　

五、股票市场：沪深两市双双持续上涨，未来仍具震荡上行空间 five/The stock market:Shanghai and shenzhen two cities both continue to rise,The future remains concussion uplink space

　　1月，股票市场延续去年12月以来强劲反弹走势，上证综指报收2385.42点，深证成指报收9667.67点。两市市值劲增1.56万亿元。此轮行情的主要上涨动力在于新政开启修复投资者中长期信心，再加上经济温和复苏、企业盈利好转、市场流动性改善、改革红利预期和投资政策超预期等五大具体因素影响，资本市场已具备趋势性上涨空间。

In January,The stock market continued strong rally since December last year,The Shanghai composite index closed at 2385.42 points,The shenzhen component index closed at 9667.67 points.The two cities surged 1.56 trillion yuan in value.This round of rising prices of main power lies in the New Deal to open repair long-term investor confidence,Coupled with moderate economic recovery/Improved corporate profits/Improve market liquidity/Reform the bonus expectations and five specific factors such as investment policy than expected,Capital markets have trend rise space.

　　同时，股票市场自身的改革和制度完善也在不断推进过程中。去年以来证监会集中推出一系列改革，从鼓励分红到引进长线投资者，从新股发行制度改革到完善退市制度，再到打击内幕交易、操作市场等违法犯罪活动，等等，政策红利集中释放，将推动A股市场继续稳定回升。

At the same time,Stock market's own reform and complete system in the process of advancing.The CSRC, rolled out a series of reforms since last year,Introduced from encouraging dividends to long-term investors,From the ipo system reform to improve the system of delisting,And then to crackdown on insider trading/Market operation and other illegal and criminal activities,And so on,Dividend policy focus on release,Will push for the a-share market continue to steady recovery.

　　总体来看，当前国内经济已筑底企稳，CPI仍处低位运行，社会资金流动性较为宽裕，经济弱复苏已成定局。在开年以来楼市量价持续上涨、贷款利率已经下行、物价重新上行的复杂局面下，为加强预期管理，防止过热倾向，国家政策可能在保持持续性、稳定性的基础上，适度加大预调微调力度。

In general,The current domestic economy is bottoming stabilizing,The The CPI is still low,Social capital liquidity is more comfortable,Weak economic recovery has been a foregone conclusion.In the years since the housing market continued to rise/Mortgage rates have downward/Prices upward under complicated situation again,In order to strengthen management,To prevent overheating tendency,National policy may keep in sustainability/On the basis of stability,Moderate intensify preset fine-tuning.

　　

主要经济体经济与政策反差加大 Stretch of economy and policy in major economies

　　年初以来，国际金融市场运行呈现出两方面特征：一方面，延续了风险偏好趋强的态势，欧债危机演化的阶段性缓和促使市场投资者降低了对美国国债和黄金的避险需求，全球股市则震荡上行；另一方面，全球政策协作氛围缺失对金融市场的影响不断深化，竞争性汇率贬值现象时有发生，国际金融市场走势分化的迹象初步显现。

Since the start of the year,The international financial market operation shows the characteristics of two aspects:On the one hand,For risk appetite strong trend,The evolution of the European debt crisis stage ease prompt market investors reduced safe-haven demand for us treasuries and gold,Global stock market swings upward;On the other hand,Lack of global policy co-ordination atmosphere impact on financial markets continued to deepen,Competitive devaluation is often happened,International financial market differentiation signs of early signs.

　

　一、“货币战”风险仍在，日元继续贬值 a/"The currency wars"Risk is still in,The yen continues to depreciate

　　过去一个月的全球外汇市场只有一个主题词——货币战。2013年初美国“财政悬崖”问题缓解后美元一直保持相对稳定，直到1月22日，日本央行宣布将无限量购买日本国债，并将目标通胀率从1%提高到2%。这被市场解读为“打响了全球货币战”的第一枪，此后关于全球将再次陷入“货币战”的争论甚嚣尘上。

Over the past month of global foreign exchange market is only one subject headings - the currency war.In early 2013, the United States"Fiscal cliff"Relief after the dollar has remained relatively stable,Until January 22,,The bank of Japan announced an unlimited buying Japanese government bonds,And the target inflation rate from 1% to 1%.This is interpreted as a market"Launched the global currency war"The first shot,Later will again about the world"The currency wars"The debate.

　　受此影响，全球外汇市场一片动荡：首先，在日本央行持续加大量化宽松力度的推动下，日元贬值趋势进一步强化，截至2月18日，日元对美元汇率收于93.96，较1月初贬值8.4%。

Affected by this,A foreign exchange markets around the world:First of all,In the bank of Japan driven continue to increase the intensity of quantitative easing,Further strengthen the yen trend,As of February 18,,The yen against the dollar at 93.96,From early January 8.4% depreciation.

　　其次，欧元上涨势头被扭转。随着欧债危机缓和、欧洲经济下滑放缓及众多欧洲银行开始偿还LTRO贷款，今年初以来欧元持续走强。欧元的强势本已引起欧元区各国领导人对出口的担忧，而日本央行再度扩大量化宽松规模的行为直接刺激欧洲央行行长德拉吉公开表示今年欧元区不排除再次降息的可能。在此消息带动下，欧元走势出现反转，截至2月18日，欧元对美元汇率收于1.3351，较1月初和2月初分别升值1.1%和贬值2.1%。

The second,The euro rally was reversed.As Europe's debt crisis/European economic decline is slowing and numerous European Banks began to repay the loans LTRO,The euro continued to be strong since earlier this year.The strength of the euro, already caused the concerns of the eurozone leaders to export,Again and the bank of Japan to expand the scale of quantitative easing, the behavior of the direct stimulation of the European central bank President Mario draghi said publicly that the eurozone does not exclude the possibility to cut interest rates again this year.Driven in the news,The euro a reversal,As of February 18,,The euro against the us dollar at 1.3351,In early January and early February 1.1% appreciation and depreciation of 1.1% respectively.

　　第三，美元汇率小幅升值，并对发达经济体和新兴经济体货币呈现差异化走势。截至2月18日，美元指数收于80.627，较1月初小幅上涨1.1%，但同期美元对俄罗斯卢布、印度卢比和巴西雷亚尔分别贬值1.4%、0.8%和4.3%。这说明当前的汇率纷争不同于2010年时的全球货币战争，仍主要集中在几个发达国家对彼此竞相“印钞”的忧虑，新兴经济体尚未参与其中。

In the third,The dollar appreciation,And the developed economies and emerging economies monetary appear differentiation.As of February 18,,The dollar index closed at 80.627,From early January edged up 1.1%,But at the same time the Russian ruble for dollars/The Indian rupee and the Brazilian real has depreciated by 1.4%/0.8% and 4.3%.This shows that the current exchange rate between different global currency wars, in 2010,Is still mainly concentrated in a few developed countries to compete to each other"The printing press"Worries about the,Emerging economies has yet to be involved.

　　展望后市，市场紧张情绪短期有所缓和，但“货币战”爆发的中期风险依然存在。2月举行的G7和G20财长和央行行长会议先后发布公告强调不以汇率作为政策目标，努力抑制竞争性货币贬值，从而暂时缓和了市场的紧张情绪。但上述公告也透露了一个重要信息，即为刺激本国经济而实施超宽松政策是可以理解的。

Looking afternoon,Short-term market tensions eased,but"The currency wars"The outbreak of the medium-term risks remain.2 month's the G7 and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting has released a statement emphasizes not to exchange rate as a policy goal,Try to curb competitive devaluations,To temporarily ease nervousness in the market.But the announcement also revealed an important information,To stimulate its economy and implement ultra-loose policy is understandable.

　　由此判断，未来日元贬值之路仍将继续，同时欧元区要走出衰退的泥潭也需要欧元保持相对弱势，因而欧元恐已阶段性见顶。而美国经济增长前景较欧元区、日本等发达国家更为光明，美联储今年基本不会再扩大量化宽松规模，下半年甚至有可能开始缩小资产购买规模，美元趋向震荡升值。此外，在市场风险偏好回归的带动下，国际资本有望加快流向新兴市场经济体，从而带动当地货币继续反弹。

The judge,The future road of the yen will continue,In order to get out of the recession and the euro zone also needs the euro remain relatively weak,So the euro has periodic peaked.While us growth prospects than the euro zone/Japan and other developed countries is more bright,The fed's basic won't expand quantitative easing this year,In the second half and possibly start narrowing the scale of asset purchases,Dollar trend shocks to appreciate.In addition,In the market risk preference by return,International capital is expected to accelerate to emerging market economies,Thus promote local currencies continue to rebound.

　　

二、全球股市整体上行，未来或将出现分化 (2)/Global stock markets overall upward,The future or will diverge

　　2013年初以来，受益于欧债危机演化进一步缓和、风险偏好进一步回归、宽松货币基调进一步确认和国际资金净流入趋势进一步增强，全球股市整体呈上行态势。奥巴马第二个任期正式开启后，美国政策稳定性潜在增强，民主党和共和党在财政悬崖、债务上限和自动减支等一系列敏感问题上的妥协程度较此前有明显提升，受此影响，美国股市继续震荡上行。截至2月19日，道琼斯工业指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数较1月初分别上涨7.11%、7.34%和6.43%。

Since the beginning of 2013,Benefit from the evolution of the European debt crisis further easing/Risk appetite back further/Loose monetary tone for further confirmation and the international trend of net inflows,Global stock markets overall upward trend.Start after Mr Obama a second term,Potential to enhance U.S. policy stability,Democrats and republicans in the fiscal cliff/Debt ceiling compromise and automatic spending cuts and a series of sensitive issues than previously has obvious improvement,Affected by this,U.S. stock markets swooned.As of February 19,The dow Jones industrial average/The s&p 500 index and nasdaq index rose 7.11% respectively than in early January/7.34% and 6.43%.

　　展望未来，美国股市维持强势的经济基础依旧较强。但受财政巩固和支出削减矛盾料将进一步激化、周期性失业和结构性失业并存料将拉升长期失业中枢等宏观风险的影响，美国股市在收复危机失地之后的上行速度或将趋缓，整体将在震荡中维持强势。

Looking to the future,The U.S. stock market to maintain a strong economic foundation is still strong.But the fiscal consolidation and spending cuts are expected to further intensify contradictions/Cyclical unemployment and structural unemployment is expected to pull litre long-term unemployment center, etc. The influence of the macro risk,U.S. stocks after liberating crisis of upstream speed or will slow,Will remain strong in shock as a whole.

　　受益于欧债危机的阶段性缓和，欧洲股市有所上涨。截至2月18日，德国DAX30指数、法国CAC40指数和英国FTSE100指数较1月初分别上涨0.21%、0.71%和7.13%。展望后市，欧股上行的空间有限，整体震荡趋弱的概率较大。

Benefit from the phases of the European debt crisis,European stocks rose.As of February 18,,Germany's dax index/The French cac-40 index (fr: px1 and English FTSE100 index rose 0.21% respectively than in early January/0.71% and 7.13%.Looking afternoon,European stocks uplink space is limited,The probability of the overall shock weakening is bigger.

　　安倍晋三再任日本首相后，对日本央行强力施压，日本货币政策宽松基调进一步增强，日元汇率也持续走弱。受此激励，日本股市上升势头强劲。截至2月18日，日经225指数较1月初上涨9.74%。展望未来，日本宽松政策搭配能否长期延续尚存较大疑问，日本股市的波动性料将大幅上升。

Shinzo Abe, then Japanese prime minister,Pressure on the bank of Japan's powerful,Japan's monetary policy loose tone,The yen is also weakening.By this incentive,Japanese stocks rising momentum.As of February 18,,The nikkei 225 index, a 9.74% rise in early January.Looking to the future,Japan's easing collocation can continue for a long time still larger question,Japan's stock market volatility is expected to rise significantly.

　　受复苏差异性的影响，新兴经济体股市涨跌互现，截至2月18日，巴西BOVESPA指数较1月初下跌5.48%，俄罗斯Micex指数和印度孟买30指数则较1月初分别上涨3.15%和0.38%。展望未来，在经济增长失速态势渐次得以缓解，低估值比较优势阶段性显现的背景下，新兴经济体股市有望整体走强。

Under the influence of the recovery difference,Stocks were mixed in emerging economies,As of February 18,,Brazil's BOVESPA index is down 5.48% in early January,Russia's Micex index and the sensex is up 3.15% and 0.38% respectively than in early January.Looking to the future,In the economic growth stall situation gradually eased,Under the background of low valuations comparative advantage stage show,Stock market is expected to be the overall strength of emerging economies.

　　

三、大宗商品牛市暂告段落，黄金原油趋向震荡调整 three/The commodity bull market to paragraphs,Gold trend shocks to adjust crude oil

　　2013年初以来，国际大宗商品市场呈现大幅震荡，美元走强，大宗商品价格普遍走软。截至2月19日，CRB指数报收于298.38点，当月下跌2.3%。纽约黄金现货价格和WTI原油期货价格分别报收于 1605.15美元/盎司和96.66美元/桶，分别较2013年初下跌4.8%和上涨3.3%。

Since the beginning of 2013,International commodities market swings,A stronger dollar,Weaker commodity prices generally.As of February 19,The CRB index closed at 298.38 points,Fell 2.3% during the month.Spot gold prices in New York and WTI crude oil futures prices closed at $1605.15 an ounce and $96.66 a barrel,Respectively from the beginning of 2013 fell 4.8% and 3.3% higher.

　　对2013年全球经济持续复苏的乐观预期令当前投资者情绪高涨，衡量市场恐慌情绪的VIX指数在美国财政悬崖问题缓解后直线下降，目前已回到2006年时水平。风险偏好的强势回归将促使资金从黄金流向股市等风险资产，对未来金价走势形成显著抑制。全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR的持仓量今年以来已大幅减少27.84吨即是证明。加之未来美元趋向继续走强，预计今年金价面临的下行压力将增大。预计在美国就自动支出削减和国债上限问题达成方向性一致之前，国际金价将在1550-1700美元/盎司的区间内震荡。

Optimistic forecasts of the global economy continues to recover in 2013 to the current investor sentiment,Measure of market panic the VIX after ease fiscal cliff problem in the United States plummeted,Has now returned to 2006 levels.Risk appetite back into will make money from gold to risk assets such as stocks,Gold formed significant inhibition in the future.The world's largest gold ETF, holdings of SPDR this year has dropped sharply since 27.84 t is proved.Combined with the dollar to continue to strengthen in the future,Expects gold prices downward pressure will increase.Is expected in the United States is automatic spending cuts and the national debt ceiling before reach a consistent direction,International gold prices will be in the $1550 - $1700 an ounce range.

　　对于原油市场，年初以来油价的持续上涨很大程度上反映了市场对今年石油需求将随全球经济复苏而快速增长的预期，然而这种预期可能过于乐观。根据美国能源信息署预测，2013年美国的原油日产量将达到725万桶的历史新高。加之全球工业国家原油库存较为充足，2013年国际原油市场整体仍将处于供应过剩状态。但应关注的是，OPEC国家近期已开始采取限产保价措施，1月产量已降至一年来的低点。综合供需因素，预计上半年国际油价将维持震荡格局，价格波动区间为80-100美元/桶。

For the crude oil market,Sustained rise in the price since the start of the year largely reflects the demand for oil this year will follow the global economic recovery and rapid growth expectations,However such expectations may be too optimistic.According to the U.S. energy information administration forecasts,In 2013 America's crude oil production will reach an all-time high of 7.25 million barrels.Combined with the industrial nation in the world crude oil inventory is sufficient,In 2013, the international crude oil market as a whole will remain in a state of oversupply.But should pay attention to,OPEC countries have recently started to take insurance on a distributed measure,1 month production has dropped to lows during the year.Comprehensive factors of supply and demand,Is expected in the first half of the international oil prices will remain range bound,Price range of $80 to $100 a barrel.

　

　四、欧债积极迹象涌现，未来演化风险尚存 four/Euro positive signs,Risk of future evolution

　　2013年初以来，欧债危机演化进一步趋向缓和，一系列积极迹象集中涌现。基于这些积极变化，部分市场人士认为，欧洲最危险的时刻已经过去，金融市场已经给出了明确答案：“欧债危机已经结束”。

Since the beginning of 2013,Evolution of the European debt crisis further easing,A series of positive signs emerge.On the basis of these positive changes,Some market participants said,Europe has already passed the most dangerous moment,Financial markets have been give a clear answer:"The European debt crisis is over".

　　结合历史经验和危机演化，我们认为，判断复合型危机结束的标准有四：一是核心危机指标明显改善，二是危机源生风险有所缓解，三是金融市场信心增强，四是实体经济走出衰退。当前欧债危机演化满足了其中的两项结束条件，即核心危机指标改善（主权CDS息差大幅下降）和金融市场信心增强（股市走强）。但欧债危机的源生风险，即债务基本面风险并未明显缓解。

Combined with the history and evolution of the crisis,We believe that,Judgment standard four complex crisis is over:One is the core crisis indicators improved significantly,2 it is crisis source risk eased,3 it is confidence in financial markets,Four is the real economy out of recession.The current European debt crisis evolution can meet the end of the two conditions of them,Namely crisis core index improved(Sovereign CDS spreads fell sharply)And financial market confidence(A stronger stock market).But the European debt crisis risk source,The debt risk of fundamentals is not significantly alleviate.

　　根据IMF的预测，2013年，欧元区负债率将从2012年的93.62%升至94.92%，大幅高于2008-2011危机期间年均的80.91%和1980-2011年历史平均的70.93%；欧盟负债率将从2012年的87.22%升至88.76%，大幅高于危机期间年均的74.96%和历史平均的60.53%。此外，欧洲经济走出衰退也尚需时日，根据彭博系统的预测中值，2013年第三季度，欧元区才有望结束GDP连续负增长的态势，实现0.1%的微弱复苏。我们认为，欧债危机只是阶段性缓解，并未完全终结。

According to the IMF forecasts,In 2013,,The euro zone's debt ratio will rise to 94.92% from 93.62% in 2012,Sharply higher than the annual average of 80.91% during 2008-2011 crisis and historical average of 70.93% in 1980-2011;The eu debt will rise to 88.76% from 87.22% in 2012,Significantly higher than the annual average of 74.96% during the crisis and the historical average of 60.53%.In addition,European economy out of recession and will take time,According to the median forecast of bloomberg system,In the third quarter of 2013,The euro zone's GDP is expected to end continuous negative growth trend,A weak recovery reach 0.1%.We believe that,Europe's debt crisis is periodic,Did not end.

　　展望未来，希腊和葡萄牙的偿债风险和流动性风险依旧值得关注；意大利和西班牙的形势演化值得警惕，截至2月18日，意大利和西班牙10年期国债收益率就较1月初分别上升了0.13和0.22个百分点；而危机风险从边缘国家向核心国家的扩散态势也值得注意。截至2013年2月18日，德国、法国和英国10年期国债收益率就较1月初分别上升了0.19、0.19和0.21个百分点。

Looking to the future,Greece and Portugal's debt risk and liquidity risk is still worthy of attention;Italian and Spanish evolution alarming situation,As of February 18,,Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields rose by 0.13 and 0.22% respectively than in early January;Risk and crisis spread from the periphery to the core of national situation is also worth attention.As of February 18, 2013,Germany/France and the UK 10-year bond yields rose by 0.19 respectively than in early January/0.19 and 0.21%.

　　此外，美国和日本国债收益率涨跌互现，截至2月18日，日本10年期国债收益率为0.74%，较1月初下降0.04个百分点，表明安倍晋三的赤字融资政策并未对国债市场形成明显冲击；美国10年期国债收益率为2%，较1月初上升0.16个百分点，表明宽松货币政策在压低长期利率的作用机制方面恐已进入瓶颈阶段。

In addition,American and Japanese bond yields were mixed,As of February 18,,Japan's 10-year bond yield is 0.74%,A fall of 0.04% in early January,Suggests that Mr Abe's deficit financing policy did not significantly impact on the formation the Treasury bond market;The 10-year Treasury note yield is 2%,A 0.16% rise in early January,Show that loose monetary policy in terms of the mechanism of action of pushing down long-term interest rates could has entered the stage of bottleneck.