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德银:2013年人民币跨境贸易结算量将增加约三成--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-12-04

  近日,德意志银行发布了对于2013年离岸人民币市场的关键绩效指标的预测报告。德银预测,2013年,人民币跨境贸易结算量将增加约30%,至4万亿元人民币,占中国在全球贸易额的15%左右。

recently,Deutsche bank issued in 2013 offshore RMB market key performance indicators of the forecast report.German silver prediction,In 2013,,RMB cross-border trade JieSuanLiang will increase about 30%,To 4 trillion yuan RMB,China accounts for about 15% of the volume of trade in the world.

  德银策略师预计,2013年的关注点将落在通过进一步资本账户自由化来解决对离岸人民币流动性供应的担忧,并可预期一系列令人振奋的政策和市场的发展。此外,德意志银行预计,2013年人民币对美元将升值大约2%-3%,同时美元兑人民币即期盘中交易区间将进一步扩大至±2%。

German silver strategists expect,In 2013 at the concern of the fall in further capital account liberalization to solve for offshore RMB liquidity supply concerns,And anticipated a series of exciting policy and the development of the market.In addition,Deutsche bank estimates,In 2013 the yuan to the dollar will rise about 2% - 3%,At the same time the dollar at the plate trading interval will further enlarge to plus or minus 2%.

  德银表示,基于香港地区之外的离岸金融中心(伦敦、台湾地区、新加坡)的人民币业务稳定的增长潜力,预计每天合计人民币离岸交易量将上升到25亿至30亿美元。预计到2013年底,离岸存款总额将达到1.25万亿人民币。同时,离岸人民币债券及定期存单净发行量预计将达到2100亿元,而发行总量可能将达到3400亿元。德银预测,由标普德银ORBIT指数跟踪计算的人民币债券,在2013年的总回报率对基于人民币的投资者和基于美元的投资者将分别为4.25%和6.25%-7.25%。

German silver said,Based on Hong Kong area outside of the offshore financial center(London/Taiwan/Singapore)The RMB business stable growth potential,Every day is expected to total RMB offshore trading will rise to $2.5 billion to $3 billion.Is expected by the end of 2013,Offshore deposit amount will reach 1.25 trillion yuan.At the same time,Offshore RMB bonds and certificates of deposit net circulation is expected to reach 210 billion yuan,The total amount and issue may will reach 340 billion yuan.German silver prediction,The scale PuDeYin ORBIT index tracking calculation of RMB bonds,The total rate of return in 2013 based on the investors and dollar based investors will were 4.25% and 6.25% - 7.25%.

  德意志银行大中华区高级策略师刘立男表示:“未来一年,监管部门将会有一系列开放举措和政策出炉,进一步推进人民币市场化进程,并继续增强人民币在全球货币市场上的重要性。”

Deutsche bank senior strategists in the greater China region LiuLiNan said:"Next year,Regulators will have a series of measures and policies are open,Further the marketization process,And continue to enhance the global currency market importance."



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