新平

new

　　从2011年起，我国宏观调控即已引入一个全新的指标概念——社会融资总量。但时至目前为止，这一指标仍然令人争论不休。

Since 2011,,Macroeconomic regulation and control in our country that has introduced a new concept - the total social financing.But up to now,This metric is still debated.

　　随着我国金融市场的活跃，以社会融资总量指标统计替代（新增）信贷规模无疑是一大进步。改革开放初期，我国社会融资压倒优势依赖银行融资。甚至到2002年，人民币贷款竟然还占到同期社会融资规模的91.9%。但到2012年末，这一比例大幅下降到52.1%。 社会融资规模统计更为全面客观地反映了整个社会的融资情况，对于提高我国宏观调控的科学性和有效性无疑将有很大帮助。以银行监管部门为例，如果发现信托贷款在某些年份扩张过快，就会迅速联想这块融资是否存在问题，进而对其加强监管。

With China's financial market is active,Alternative to total social financing index statistics(The new)The credit scale is undoubtedly a big step forward.The early reform and opening up,Our social financing overwhelming dependence on bank financing.Even in the middle of 2002,Renminbi loans was 91.9% of social financing scale to the same period.But at the end of 2012,This ratio fell sharply to 52.1%. Social financing scale statistics more comprehensively and objectively reflect the financing situation of the society as a whole,In improving the scientific nature and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control in our country will undoubtedly have a great help.Bank regulators, for example,If the found trust loans in some years rapid expansion,Lenovo quickly whether the financing problems,To strengthen supervision to it.

　　但是，社会融资规模指标的缺陷也不言而喻。首先，这一指标没有反映民间融资和内源融资情况。随着金融管制的不断放松和金融创新发展，完全有理由相信，民间融资将在“真实的”社会融资规模中越来越占据一席之地。仅以网络借贷为例，现在比较知名的就有红岭创投、拍拍贷、宜信网等。尽管央行承诺在条件成熟时会将私募股权基金、对冲基金等计入社会融资规模，但由于民间借贷的非正规性、隐蔽性和复杂性，对于这块越来越膨胀的融资，相信货币部门在统计上也有难处。

but,Social financing scale index of defects is self-evident.First of all,The indicators do not reflect the folk financing and internal financing situation.With the relaxation of financial regulation and financial innovation and development,Have every reason to believe that,Folk financing will be"The real"In social financing scale is more and more.Only in online lending, for example,There are red ridge vc now better known/Clap to borrow/Appropriate letter, etc..Despite the central bank promised when conditions are ripe to private-equity funds/Such as hedge funds included in social financing scale,But due to the irregularity of the folk lending/Concealment and complexity,For the expansion of financing more and more,Believe that currency department has difficulty in statistics.

　　同时，随着我国日益成为一个开放的经济体，海外融资已经越发不容忽视。以社会融资总量为例，它是推动我国实体经济发展的重要力量。2012年，我国实际利用外资规模达1117亿美元，大约占同期社会融资总量的4.4%。另外，在过去人民币升值压力很大以及房价上涨很快的年份，都有大量海外热钱蜂拥而入，如果对这块“有害”融资缺乏精确统计并相应加以控制，就很难避免宏观经济风险。不幸的是，按照所谓“居民原则”，社会融资总量在统计过程中并没有对上述两块内容予以考虑。

At the same time,As our country is increasingly becoming an open economy,Overseas financing has more nots allow to ignore.In total social financing, for example,It is the important force to promote the development of the real economy in China.In 2012,,The actual use of foreign capital in China $111.7 billion,The same period accounted for about 4.4% of the total social financing.In addition,In the last year of RMB appreciation pressure and prices soon,A large number of overseas hot money flooded in,If on the"harmful"Financing, the lack of accurate statistics and the corresponding control,It is hard to avoid macroeconomic risks.unfortunately,According to the so-called"Principle of residents",Total social financing in the process of statistics is not to consider these two pieces of content.

　　还有，货币部门以“金融原则”为由，将国债发行排除在社会融资总量之外。殊不知国家宏观调控是“一盘棋”，如果国债发行多了，就会与其他融资方式一样引起经济过热或通货膨胀。在这样的条件下，就更需要宏观调控部门——财政部和央行加强协调配合，推动国民经济持续健康发展。

There are,Monetary unit in order to"Financial principles"grounds,National debt issues will be left out in the total social financing.But is the national macro-control"A chess game",If the bonds issued,Would like other financing way cause overheating or inflation.In such conditions,Is more in need of macroeconomic regulation and control department, the ministry of finance and central bank to strengthen coordination and cooperation,Promote sustained and healthy development of national economy.

　　值得注意的是，不管社会融资总量也好，货币余额也好，在金融自由化成为一种发展趋势情况下，即使做再多功课，也很难把所有名目的融资或货币存量完全统计进去。当然，统计遗漏是多方面原因造成的，或者是主观原因，如根本没想把“实际利用外资”考虑进去；或者是客观原因，如很难精确统计“民间融资”的规模。与此同时，央行还要在统计中做大量协调工作，不但要协调“三会”、发改委、中央国债登记结算有限责任公司和银行间市场交易商协会等部门，未来可能还要协调商务部、财政部等。总而言之，社会融资规模仅有参考价值——帮助不同部门看一看是哪块融资出了问题？但如果作为货币政策中介目标，就有舍近求远之嫌了，不如将货币政策的视线直接钉住宏观政策最终目标——通货膨胀水平。

It is worth noting,Regardless of the total social financing,Currency balance is all right,Under the condition of financial liberalization has become a development trend,Even do more homework,It is hard to put all the purpose of financing or money stock statistics in completely.Of course,,Statistics missing is caused by many factors,Or is the subjective reason,If don't want to"The actual use of foreign capital"Taking into account;Or the objective cause,Such as the accurate statistics"Folk financing"The size of the.At the same time,The central bank will also do a lot of coordination work in statistics,Not only should coordinate"Three will be"/The national development and reform commission/The central Treasury securities registration and clearing co., LTD and the interbank market traders association and other departments,The future may have to coordinate the ministry of commerce/Ministry of finance, etc..To sum up,Social financing scale is only reference, to help different departments which is take a look at the piece of financing problems?But if as a monetary policy intermediary goal,At the risk of further,Than to view direct peg to the macro policy of monetary policy final goal - the level of inflation.