中国证券报消息 国内成品油价上调刚过一周，下调窗口又将打开。多家市场机构预测，按照目前国际油价走势，预计3月下旬三地变化率将突破-4%的红线，成品油价有望迎来年内的首次下调。

China securities news domestic oil prices raised just over a week,Window will open.Several prediction market institutions,According to the current international oil prices,Expected rate will exceed 4% in late march, Hong Kong and the red line,The first cut of finished product oil price is expected to usher in years.

　　业内人士认为，未来成品油调价将常态化，未来或将两周一调。这将打击市场投机行为，提高市场活跃度，同时温和利好炼油企业。

The personage inside course of study thinks,Refined oil price adjustment will be normalized in the future,Or two on Monday will be dispatched in the future.This will hit the market speculation,Improve the market activity,At the same time gentle good oil refining enterprises.

下调窗口或月底打开 Cut open the window or the end of the month

　　在国际油价走低影响下，三地原油变化率也于近日由正转负。新华社石油价格系统3月6日发布的数据显示，三地(迪拜、布伦特、辛塔)原油3月5日移动平均价格变化率为-0.58%，已连续3个工作日走负。

In under the influence of international oil prices lower,Places the change rate of crude oil has shifted from being negative.Xinhua news agency the price of oil system according to data released on March 6th,three(dubai/brent/Zinn tower)On March 5, moving average prices for crude oil rate of 0.58%,Have leave negative for three consecutive days.

　　安迅思息旺能源分析师认为，如果后期布伦特原油期货维持在110美元/桶，按照目前运行的定价机制，三地原油均价变化率将在3月26日跌破-4%，届时今年首次成品油零售价下调窗口将打开。按最新原油期货价格计算，下调幅度预计在300元/吨。

AnXunSi prosperous energy analysts say,Late if brent crude oil futures at $110 a barrel,According to the current pricing mechanism,Crude oil produced in the average rate will fall below 4% in the March 26,When the pump price cut window will open for the first time this year.Calculated according to the recent crude oil futures prices,Cut is expected to 300 yuan/ton.

调价趋常态化 Pricing is normalized

　　在上一轮调价中，受现行成品油定价机制问题的困扰，出现了“国际油价跌、国内油价涨”的反差现象。对此，国家发改委主任张平在3月6日坦言，发改委正在研究新定价机制，将进一步缩短调价周期，取消“4%”的涨跌幅限制，“在一定调价周期内，该调就调”。

In the last round of pricing,The current oil pricing mechanism problem,the"The international oil prices fall/Domestic oil prices rose"The contrast phenomenon.For this,Zhang ping, director of the national development and reform commission (NDRC) said on March 6th,Development and reform commission (NDRC) is working on a new pricing mechanism,Pricing will be further shortened cycle,To cancel"4%"The price limit,"Pricing in a certain period,The pitch is".

　　安迅思息旺能源分析师认为，上述表态除了明确未来调价周期将缩窄到10天或更短外，还表明了未来成品油调价将常态化。定价机制或将参考台湾等地的形式，参考每两周原油变动的幅度来适当调整成品油价格。预计未来调整油价会有一个最高或最低的调幅限制，以避免价格传导过快。

AnXunSi prosperous energy analysts say,Remarks in addition to the clear pricing future cycle will be narrowed to 10 days or less,Also indicate that the refined oil price adjustment will be normalized in the future.Pricing or reference in the form of Taiwan,Refer to the size of the change of crude oil every two weeks to adjust fuel prices.Expected future adjustment of oil prices will have a maximum or minimum amplitude modulation limit,In order to avoid price conduction too quickly.

　　此外，定价机制调整对炼油企业的盈利情况也可能产生积极影响。卓创资讯指出，目前两大油的原料结算是一月一次，即成本每月变动一次。若销售价格由此前几个月调整一次变为一月调整两次后，将使得售价和成本联动性更高，炼厂无论盈利还是亏损的幅度都将趋于温和。　

In addition,Pricing adjustment of oil refining enterprise earnings may also have a positive impact.Zhuo and points out that information,Lard of both raw materials and settlement is once a month,The cost change once a month.If the selling price is adjusted from this a few months ago to adjusted after two month,Will make the price and the cost of higher correlation,Refiners regardless of the size of the profit or loss will be moderate.