当你在投资市场确定一个基本的投资策略之后，就要定期地检讨投资的组合与策略的匹配情况，这对资金管理与控制投资组合风险是非常重要的。

When you are in the investment market after a basic investment strategy is determined,Shall regularly review the investment combination and matching strategy,The fund portfolio risk management and control is very important.

　　要想控制投资的风险就要谈到投资的模式，首先讲一下周期的概念，即从买进投资标的物到卖出的时间跨度，这里涉及投资行为心理学的范畴，交易周期的长与短很多时候与投资者的心理承受能力有比较大的关系。

To control the investment risk is talking about investment mode,First of all tell me the concept of the cycle,The time span from investment to buy the subject matter to sell,Relating to the investment behavior psychology category here,Transaction cycle is long and short many times and investor psychology to bear ability has a bigger of the two relations.

　　第一种投资模式为日内短线：很多投资者喜欢当日的频繁买卖交易，少到一小时甚至一分钟（国内股票除外,在期货领域较为典型），一般来讲，这些日内交易者已经创造出一种适合自己的交易模式，比较符合自己的习性，尤其是在期货市场，杠杆、T+0、多空交易模式等极具技巧性的交易模式还是吸引了许多头脑灵活的投资者，因为在国内期货市场交易所往往会根据交易量返还一部分手续费收入，期货公司往往会将这部分收入再奖励给交易量大的日内短线交易者，短线交易者天然具有成本竞争优势。笔者根据多年经验设计出一套开盘定价操作模式，根据九种定价模型可以很好地进行低风险与低成本的日内趋势交易或对冲交易。当然，极短期的交易模式设计起来会非常复杂，因为越短的行情价格随机性越强、稳定性越差，所以交易成本就成为盈利与否的关键。

The first kind of investment model for the day:A lot of investors like the frequent transactions of the day,To an hour or even less one minute(Domestic stocks except,In the field of futures is more typical),In general,These days, traders have to create a suitable for their own trading patterns,More in line with their own habits,Especially in the futures market,leverage/T + 0/Long-short trading models and other highly skilled trades or attracted a lot of smart investors,Because often according to the domestic futures market exchange trading in the back part of the fee income,Futures companies tend to this part of income redistribution awarded to short-term traders volume big days,Short-term traders has a cost competitive advantage.Based on years of experience to design a set of open quotation price operating modes,According to nine kinds of pricing model is a good way to low risk and low cost of days trend trading or hedging.Of course,,Very short-term trading patterns can be very complicated to design,The more shorter because the market price of randomness/Stability of the worse,So the transaction cost becomes the key to a profit or not.

　　第二类投资模式为短趋势交易：以股票为例，当股价超跌、成交量增加、股票的波动幅度增大，这时，一种7～10天的短期趋势行情就有可能产生，大部分时间属于技术型反弹行情，但也有像2008年股市历史性大跌，在底部放量、股价走高一段时间后，由于在更多的利好消息刺激下，股价不仅未跌，而且持续上涨，使很多所谓的专家大跌眼镜。所以背后的政策性外力刺激因素是必须了解的。

The second category of investment mode to short trend trading:In stock, for instance,When share prices fall/Volume increase/Stock volatility increased,At this time,A short-term trend of 7 ~ 10 days it is possible to produce,Most of the time belongs to the technical rebound in the market,But there are also like a historic 2008 stock market crash,In the bottom of the volume/Stock prices go up after a period of time,Because under the stimulus more good news,Share price not only did not fall,And continue to rise,Make a lot of so-called experts raised.So the policy stimulus is must understand the force behind.

　　第三类投资模式偏于长周期交易：投资者通过各种数据的分析，判定未来数月价格趋势明显，并受到利好因素推动，便会更乐于长期持有。像2013年初期的原油市场由于受到季节性的冬季取暖需求增强、叙利亚内战的升级及美伊战争的阴影，国际游资持有原油多头头寸的进一步增加，原油价格非常坚挺，并有可能进一步上涨。基于以上对原油市场的深度剖析，得出未来一段时间的买进持有策略，最终原有价格由年初的87美元上升到最高97美元的阶段性高点。

The third type of investment pattern to be trading for a long period of time:Investors through the analysis of various data,Decide in the next few months the price trend is obvious,And be positive,Will be more willing to hold for a long time.As the crude oil market in the early 2013 due to seasonal winter heating needs enhancing/Syria's civil war of the upgrades and the shadow of the war in Iraq,International hot money to hold the further increase of crude oil long positions,Price of crude oil is very strong,And is likely to rise further.To the depth of the crude oil market based on the above analysis,Concluded that the future for a period of time the buy-and-hold strategy,End original price from $87 up to $97 in early stage high.

　　还有一些极有趣的投资者根据季节性规律进行特定记忆周期的投资策略的制定。如一部分人研究发现，股票市场在每年的10月底到来年的4月底往往容易上涨，而在其他时间则容易疲软，这也许和企业的生产周期及披露年报业绩有关吧。而对于农产品，这种季节性规律更为明显，如小麦收获的5~6月份，期货价格普遍处于低位，而在年底与来年的三四月份则会受到季节性需求的影响普遍上扬，这也成为很多季节性周期基金的典型操作策略。而工业品期货往往会受到库存周期的变化影响及开工周期的影响，在此不再赘述。

There are some very interesting investors to specific memory according to the laws of the seasonal cycle of investment strategy formulation.As a part of the study found,The stock market in a year at the end of October next year tend to rise at the end of April,While at other times prone to weakness,That may be related to enterprise production cycle and the annual performance.For agricultural products,This seasonal pattern is more obvious,Such as wheat harvest from may to June,The futures price is generally low,And at the end of the year and the coming year in March and April will be influenced by seasonal demand generally rising,This has become a typical of many seasonal cycle funds operating strategy.And commodity futures tend to be affected by changes in the inventory cycle and the influence of the construction cycle,Here is no longer here.

　　综合而言，在投资者进行投资时，会受到所受的教育、个性及习惯、资金的风险承受度等因素的影响，所以派生出千奇百怪、各种各样的投资策略，但无论是哪一种策略的设计，都要注意以下几点：

In terms of comprehensive,When the investor to invest,Will be affected by education/Personality and habits/The factors of risk tolerance,So derived are various/A wide variety of investment strategies,But no matter what a kind of strategy design,Attention should be paid to the following points:

　　1.投资周期的选择是否符合你的既定策略与整体资产风险管理的要求；

1. Investment cycle choose whether to meet your defined strategy and the overall asset risk management requirements;

　　2.过程跟踪、不断检讨当时促使你买进和卖出的因素是否还存在；

2. The process of tracking/Continuous review at that time prompted you to buy and sell if factors still exist;

　　3.适时修正你原来的交易策略，使策略的弹性与价格的波动相吻合，一旦认为策略需要修正，就要逐步、分批地进行头寸的调整，采取一种系统化的思维模式来处理风险。

3. Update your old trading strategies,Make the strategy of flexibility in conformity with the price fluctuations,Once that strategies need to be modified,Will gradually/Partial to the adjustment of the position,Take a systematic thinking mode to handle risks.

　　接下来我们谈一下风险管理和制定投资决策的过程（我们将以机构化投资思路来描述，毕竟短线交易有太多的个人感性色彩，很难总结为普适规则）。首先第一个阶段是收集各类咨询信息，根据你所采用的投资模式，你将会搜集不同类别的资讯，若你是一个偏于短线的交易者，你就要研究基于技术面的如价格形态、压力/支撑位、量价结构、机构持仓等较为短期的资讯。若你是长期投资长达数月之久，经济及金融指标是你必须要了解的。我们要强调的一点是，很多投资者经常搞混短期持有与长期投资之间所需要的分类资讯，使得决策信息混乱，导致对持有投资品种的信心不足，一有风吹草动，便盲目止损或逆势持有。所以，坚持适合自己的交易哲学非常重要。

Then we talk about the process of risk management and investment decisions(We will be described in institutional investment ideas,Short-term trading, after all, there are too many personal perceptual color,It is difficult to summarize for the universal rules).First of all, the first stage is collecting all kinds of information,According to your model adopted by the investment,You will be collecting different types of information,If you are a rather short-term traders,You are about to research based on the technology such as price form below/Pressure/support/Structure, quantity and price/Institutional ownership and so on relatively short-term information.If you are a long-term investment for months at a time,Economic and financial indicators is that you must to know.We want to stress is,Many investors are often mixed held short-term and long-term investment between the classification of the information you need,Makes the decision-making information chaos,Lead to hold investments of lack of confidence,There is a trouble,Then stop or hold contrarian blindly.so,Adhere to the suits own trading philosophy is very important.

　　第二个阶段是建立相关的分析架构。对第一阶段所搜集的资讯并以此为素材建立一套处理、判断、最终可在应用层面使用的模型。如长周期的投资者可以运用大类资产轮动的时间周期理论对不同阶段的资产如股票、债券、商品、汇率进行风险模型的搭建，对于日内交易者则建立基于高频数据的短期模型设计。举例说明，2007年全球经济过热、股市创出历史新高、大宗商品价格也处于牛市阶段，随后便是利率走高、市场资金供给紧张；而到2009年初，经济处于普遍较为担心的疲软阶段，则短期利率降低、金融市场资金状况转为宽松，这样的环境有利于股市的上升，所以我们看到道琼斯指数从2009年的6400点上涨到今天的14500点的历史新高。而对于中国股市，尽管我国政府也推出诸如4万亿刺激计划等积极的财政政策，但由于2011年政府担心通货膨胀与信贷的质量，银根趋于收紧，使得资金利率高企不下，实际市场的资金供应偏紧，加上政府采取较为收紧的如房地产购房限制等管制政策、影响中下游产业需求，最终导致中国股市持续下跌。比较有意思的是，银行股收益很不错，也被大盘系统性风险带动下跌，最终在2012年12月份由内在投资价值引发报复性上涨。

The second phase is to build a relevant analysis framework.To information collected by the first phase and to establish a set of material processing/judgment/Can be used in application level model in the end.As investors can use for a long period of rotation time cycle theory categories of assets in different stages of assets such as stocks/The bond/goods/The construction of the exchange rate risk model,For day traders short-term model design based on high-frequency data.For example,In 2007 the global economy is overheating/Hitting a record high stocks/Commodity prices also in the bull market phase,Followed by higher interest rates/The market capital supply tensions;But by early 2009,Economy is generally more worried about the weakness of the stage,The short-term interest rates lower/Financial markets turned loose money conditions,Such an environment conducive to the stock market's rise,So we saw the dow Jones index rose from 2009 in 2009 to today's all-time high of 14500 points.For Chinese stock market,Although our government has also launched a proactive fiscal policy such as 4 trillion stimulus plan,But since 2011, the government is worried about inflation and credit quality,Money tends to tighten,Makes money high interest rates,Actual market tight money supply,Combined with the government to take more to tighten controls such as housing purchase restriction policy/Influence of middle and lower reaches of industry needs,Eventually led to China's stock market continued to fall.Is more interesting,Bank shares income is very good,Is the market systemic risks driving down,Finally in 2012 by intrinsic investment value retaliatory rise in December.

　　第三个阶段通过以上建立的分析模型及相关资讯为基础，评估与分析各类资产目前的风险程度及决定是否投资，在这里我们强调的是需要丰富的投资经验会使得你的模型应用价值更高。分析的逻辑如上，不再赘述，随后会有更详细的分类分析。

Third stage through the above analysis model is established and relevant information as a basis,Evaluation and analysis of various kinds of assets to the current degree of risk and deciding whether to invest,Here we emphasize that need to be rich investment experience will make your model higher application value.The analysis of the logic as above,Needless to,Then there will be a more detailed analysis of the classification.

　　第四个阶段其实就是投资策略的操作。当你经过第三个阶段的分析之后，市场也的确处在风险逐步降低的过程，投资者就可以分批买进股票持有，经过一段时间随着股票的上涨，风险逐步累计升高。此时股票获利的概率逐步降低，再假设短期利率上升已经两个月，较保守稳妥的操作策略是将退出的部分资金买进货币市场基金，当然，还有一个较为稳健的做法是：由于大宗商品会滞后于股票3～6个月，所以在退出股票市场而经济还处于过热的阶段可以买进原油、黄金、铜等在此阶段风险较低的期货商品。举例讲，2007年10月23日中国A股市场达到历史高点6124点，而此后半年2008年的3月铜价维持相对高点69000元，可见还有一波商品的上涨行情。

The fourth stage is the operation of the investment strategy.When you after the third phase of analysis,Market is indeed in risk reduction process step by step,Investors can be partial to buy stock,After a period of time as the stock rally,Risk gradually increased.Gradually reduce the probability of the profit,Suppose the short-term interest rate rise has been two months,More conservative safety operation strategy is to move out of some of the money to buy money market funds,Of course,,There is a more robust approach is:Because of the commodity will lag the stock 3 ~ 6 months,So in exit from the stock market and the economy is still in the stage of overheating could buy crude oil/gold/Such as copper at this stage have a lower risk of futures commodities.For example, that,On October 23, 2007 China a-share market to an all-time high of 6124 points,And after six months of 2008 March copper prices remain relatively high of 69000 yuan,Visible and a wave of commodity rally.

　　总结以上的四个阶段，是一个连续的、有逻辑的整理资讯信息、分析判断、操作应用的体系架构。即便如此，针对不同的交易模式也要进行不同的检讨回顾，如对日内短线要在分钟级别上予以检讨，针对7～10天的投资则需要每天检讨一次，对于数月为投资周期的交易应该以每周作为检讨回顾的标准。

Summary of the above four stages,Is a continuous/There is logic of sorting information information/The analysis judgment/Operation application architecture.Even so,According to different trade pattern has to be different to review,Such as the day to review level in minutes,For 7 ~ 10 days investment will need to review once a day,For a few months for investment cycle should deal per week as a standard to review.