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不可置信威胁:一场金融机构与灾区农户的信用风险博弈--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-05-06
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本报记者 刘艾琳 成都报道
Our reporter LiuYiLin chengdu reported
最近大半个月,走访了北川、绵阳、雅安、芦山等旧灾新难的重建地和发生地。希望把汶川地震重建中暴露出的风险,预警于新灾区重建。巧的是,令各地金融部门负责人最担心的,都是灾后重建中的农户信用体系集体恶化导致的金融生态环境破坏。
Recent half a month,Visited beichuan/mianyang/Ya 'an/Forth, such as old rebuild new hard ground and where.Want to risk exposed in the wenchuan earthquake reconstruction,Early warning in the new reconstruction.As it happens,Financial department heads across most to worry about,Is the reconstruction of peasant household credit system financial ecological environment destruction caused by deterioration of collective.
从农户的角度来看,天灾不可避免,政府又不可能负担所有损失,所以重建中个人支出带有一定强制性。以北川为例,该地区农房重建资金的来源由政府补贴、农户自筹、银行贷款三部分组成,所占比例分别为16.8%,48.6%,34.6%。可以看出,补贴不到两成,其余部分都需要农户自担。
From the perspective of farmers,Natural disasters is inevitable,Government could not afford all the loss,So the reconstruction of a certain mandatory personal spending.In beichuan, for example,The region house the source of reconstruction funds subsidies by the government/Farmers raise/Bank loans of three parts,The proportion of 16.8% respectively,48.6%,34.6%.It can be seen that,Subsidies, less than twenty percent,The rest need to farmers since the bear.
无可置疑的是,对于银行业金融机构而言,农房重建贷款存在期限长、收益低、风险高的特点。风险主要在两方面,一是农户实际的偿还能力弱导致的财务风险,二是出于“法不责众”心理导致的集体违约的道德风险。从实践来看,早在2011年,汶川地震中农房重建中三年期贷款就已经到期,逾期率偏高、集体违约的现象已经凸显。
There is no doubt is,For the banking financial institutions,Housing reconstruction loans exist long maturity/Low profits/The risk high characteristic.Risk is mainly in two aspects,One is the farmers actual solvency weak lead to financial risk,2 it is for"FaBuZeZhong"Psychological moral risks of collective default.From the practice,As early as 2011,Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction in the farmhouse of three-year loans expire,YuQiLv is on the high side/Collective default phenomenon has highlighted.
但是,真正出现逾期和违约之后,银行很难运用法律手段来维护权益。供职于人民银行成都分行的王越子博士将此称为对借款农户是“不可置信威胁”。他发表的研究文献中称,“金融机构可能对单个借贷者采取惩罚性的措施,但在信用环境恶化、逃废债人数众多的情况下,收缴成本相当高,金融机构采取强制性措施的可能性不大。”
but,Really appeared late and after default,Banks are hard to use legal means to maintain the rights and interests.At the people's bank of chengdu branch of Dr Wang Yuezi calls this is to borrow farmers"Unbelievable threat".He said in a study published literature,"Financial institutions may have on individual borrowers take punitive measures,But in the credit environment deterioration/Enforcement is large in number,Confiscate the cost very high,Financial institutions to take compulsory measures is unlikely."
违约原因有多种。其中之一是宣传误导。民政救助和金融扶持同时介入重建,加上宣传不当,很多农户对农房重建贷款的性质认识不清,甚至与财政补贴混为一谈,认为或者潜意识里倾向于相信银行贷款是无偿资金。
Default for a variety of reasons.One of them is advertising is misleading.Civilian assistance and financial support at the same time involved in reconstruction,Together with the improper propaganda,Many farmers unclear understanding of the nature of the housing reconstruction loans,Even with the subsidies,Think or subconsciously tend to believe that the bank loan is free money.
还有部分农户的心理变化超出了政策设计者的预想。例如,绵阳安县某一个镇,在重建时有6个村被划到了北川辖内。按照当时政策,北川辖内的部分农房贷款享受三年政府贴息,“这下镇里其他村的人就不同意了,说原来都是一个镇的,受灾程度差不多,凭什么他们就免三年。那么有钱都不还了,农村集中安置还有个特点,只要一个不还,其他都不还。”北川金融监管机构一位负责人对本报记者坦言。
Some farmers psychological change is beyond the policy thought of the designer.Such as the,A town of anxian county, mianyang,In the reconstruction of six village were scratched the beichuan facility.According to the policy,Facility of beichuan government subsidised loans to enjoy part of the farmhouse three years,"Under the town village, other people don't agree,Said the original is a town,Similar damage,With what they avoid 3 years.So don't also money,Rural centralized settlement has a characteristic,As long as a don't also,Other all don't."Beichuan's financial regulator, a head of our reporter said.
表面上看,农户的违约成本极低。一方面银行不可能直接对农户采取强制催收手段,一方面,只要不再涉及后续银行贷款,原有的信贷关系就会成为“一锤子买卖”,违约获得的收益明显大于按期还款。据参与贷款的金融机构介绍,部分农户持观望态度,期望“出政策”免除还息义务,甚至认为按时还款是吃亏。
On the surface,Farmer's default cost is extremely low.On the one hand, Banks can't directly to farmers take compulsory collection method,On the one hand,As long as no longer involved in subsequent bank loans,The original credit relationship becomes"One hammer buying and selling",Default is bigger than the income they receive timely payment.According to participate in the loans of financial institutions,Part of the farmers,expect"Out of the policy"Exempt interest obligations,Even think of repaying is cheated.
实际上,灾区农户信用集体恶化带来的后果不可小觑。“我们一直在向政府建议,灾区信用环境破坏直接导致的是,后续金融扶持政策根本无法跟进。例如,房屋安置好后,想要再创业贷款,由于不良信用记录就很难在金融机构再获支持。那么,这部分融资者只能流入民间甚至地下借贷市场,高成本融资又会继续增加资金负担,恶性循环就产生了。”雅安市某金融监管人士对本报记者称。
In fact,The aftermath of the disaster area of peasant household credit deterioration of collective to be reckoned with."We have been advice to the government,Areas that are a direct result of environmental damage is credit,Did not follow up subsequent financial support policy.Such as the,After house place,Want to a small business loan,Due to the bad credit is hard to back to support the financial institutions.then,This part of the issuer can only flow into the folk and even underground lending market,High cost of financing and will continue to increase financial burden,A vicious cycle is created."Ya 'an a financial regulators to our correspondent says.
随着大量农房重建贷款的集中到期,金融机构呼吁建立金融生态环境的声音越发强烈。“对四川而言,受灾地区还存在一定交叉性,信用体系建设尤为重要。我们建议顶层设计借此机会建立起对恶意违约的惩处机制。让农户清楚区分救助与金融的区别,培养商业信用。”一位参与农房重建贷款项目的金融人士说。
As a large number of housing reconstruction focus on the maturity of the loan,Financial institutions called for the establishment of financial ecological environment's voice grew more intense."For sichuan,The affected area there are must be crossed,Credit system construction is particularly important.We suggest that the top-level design to take this opportunity to establish penalties for malicious default mechanism.Let the farmers to clearly distinguish the difference between aid and financial,Develop commercial credit."Participated in the reconstruction of housing loan programs, a financial person said.
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